Not a Rookie: Adam Loewen

Adam Loewen was drafted by the Orioles in the first round in 2002, fourth overall, out of high school in Surrey, British Columbia. He didn't sign right away, but he skipped his Arizona State scholarship and went to Chipola JC instead to retain the ability to sign. I didn't give him a grade in the 2003 book since it was unclear what would happen to him. He had a good campaign in junior college and signed with Baltimore right before he would have gone back into the '03 draft pool. His pro debut was strong: 2.70 ERA with a 25/9 K/BB in 23 innings in the New York-Penn League. I gave him a Grade B in the '04 book, noting that he had ace potential if he could improve his command.

Loewen spent most of 2004 at Class A Delmarva in the Sally League, going 4-5, 4.11 with a 82/58 K/BB in 85 innings. He also made two starts for Class A Frederick, losing both and allowing nine walks in eight innings. Problems with his mechanics hampered his command, and his season ended early with a labrum injury. This was corrected without surgery, but the injury combined with his command problems limited him to a Grade C+ in the 2005 book.

Loewen spent 2005 at Frederick, going 10-8, 4.12 with a 146/86 K/BB in 142 innings. Impressive K/IP but too many walks stand out. Scouting reports pointed out his 90-95 MPH fastball, big-breaking curve, and strong ground ball tendencies, but also noted the remaining command issues. I wrote that "he could turn into Francisco Liriano, but he could also turn into Ty Howington" and moved him back up to Grade B.

2006 saw Loewen pitch very well at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, sharpening his command considerably, but struggling in the majors, going 6-6, 5.37 with a 98/62 K/BB. Last year he kept his ERA low at 3.56, but of course was limited to just 30.1 innings by injury. And in those 30.1 innings his K/BB was an ugly 22/26.

Two issues here: health and command. The elbow stress fracture that ended his '07 campaign early is fine now and is not expected to be an issue. There hasn't been a recurrence thus far of the labrum problem from 2004. Of course it's entirely possible that either problem could recur or something else could happen. I can't predict that obviously.

As for the command issue, anyone who has seen Loewen pitch knows he's got first-class stuff when healthy and just needs to be more consistent with it. But that's a big "just needs"...can Loewen actually do it?

 The top name on Loewen's Sim Score list is Al Leiter, who also ranks highly (fifth) on his PECOTA comp list. The Lieter comp makes a lot of sense to me: injury and command problems, occasionally overpowering, a better-than-average pitcher overall with flashes of brilliance but never quite living up to his complete potential. That's' what I expect out of Loewen at this point, assuming he doesn't completely fall apart.

Unsung Prospect: Allen Craig

Here is the comment for Allen Craig from the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book.

SLEEPER ALERT. The Cardinals drafted Craig in the eighth round in 2006, out of the University of California. As you can see, he has been very successful as a pro, and it's a bit of a puzzle why he's received so little attention. He has very good bat speed and power to all fields. His plate discipline needs work, and it's possible his batting average will drop off at higher levels, though the power should remain. He was one of the best hitters in the Florida State League last year, posting an excellent +26 percent OPS, ranking third in batting average, third in OPS, third in homers, and third in SLG. Defense is an issue. He has a strong arm, but lacks consistency with his footwork and has spent time at shortstop, outfield, and third base. He might end up at a corner outfield spot eventually if he can't settle down in the infield, but his bat will play there if current trends continue. He turns 24 in July so he needs to move quickly, but if you are looking for an under-the-radar hitter, Craig is a great candidate. Grade B-.

I think that lays it out pretty well. He has the arm for third base and perhaps additional reps will improve his range and reliability, though it seems unlikely he will become more than average defensively in the infield. If he hits well an average glove will be enough. It will be interesting to see what he does against a full season of advanced pitching, but my guess is that he'll continue to hit impressively in Double-A and Triple-A and may not be fully challenged until he sees major league pitchers.

PECOTA comps include guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff, Steve Pearce, and Mark Reynolds, but also Mark Quinn, Cole Liniak, and Russ Davis. We need to get more data from higher levels to see exactly where Craig stands, but he IS an unsung prospect, in the sense of deserving more attention than he has received.

Not a Rookie: Corey Hart

Corey Hart was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 11th round in 2000, out of high school in Bowling Green, Kentucky. Drafted as a first baseman, he wasn't a hot prospect on draft day, but the Brewers liked his height (6-6), power potential, and athleticism. He held his own in rookie ball, hitting .287/.332/.366 in 216 at-bats for Ogden in the Pioneer League. That was back in the STATS days when I didn't put many short-season players in the book. Nowadays he'd get a Grade C "with higher potential" rating, pending additional data.

Hart returned to Ogden in 2001 and hit .340/.395/.542 with 11 homers and 14 steals in 262 at-bats. I did put him in the book in '02, giving him a Grade C rating, noting his strong performance, power potential, and unusual speed for a first baseman. I also noted that his plate discipline was erratic and that the Brewers didn't have a great track record at the time helping similar players develop.

After an impressive spring camp, Hart skipped low Class A and went directly to the California League in 2002. He hit .288/.356/.573 with 22 homers and 24 steals in 100 games for High Desert, then .266/.340/.362 in 28 games for Double-A Huntsville. The High Desert numbers were inflated by the environment, but he was just 20 years old, had skipped a level, and wasn't completely overmatched after being promoted to Double-A. His plate discipline needed work, but I gave him a Grade B, noting that "there is a lot to like here."

Hart spent all of 2003 at Huntsville, hitting .302/.340/.467. He hit just 13 homers, but knocked 40 doubles and stole 25 bases. His plate discipline was an issue with a 28/101/493 BB/K/AB ratio, but it didn't seem to hurt him much. He has an unusually compact swing for such a tall player. He played third base that year, as the Brewers were trying to figure out how to fit him into the future lineup, but I projected that he would end up in an outfield corner. I gave him another Grade B and rated him as the Number 42 hitting prospect in baseball.

2004 was a solid season: he hit .281/.342/.485 with 15 homers and 17 steals for Triple-A Indianapolis. He increased his walk rate significantly, and moved to the outfield full-time. I gave him yet another Grade B, writing that I didn't "think that Hart was going to be a star, but if he can maintain decent command of the strike zone, he should be a solid player." He just missed the Top 50.

A return engagement in Triple-A in 2005 resulted in a .308/.377/.536, 17 homer, 31 steal mark for Nashville. I gave him another Grade B, noting that Hart just needed a chance to play and he'd be a darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate. As you know he finally got to play in '06 and '07, and indeed he's done quite well. Hart is a career .284/.339/.505 hitter at the major league level through 800 at-bats.

I expect this to continue. While I don't think he will ever be a walk machine, he doesn't need to be. He doesn't strike out that much for a guy with power, and I like his multi-skills. When Hart was just starting out he was compared to Richie Sexson due to his size and wingspan. I don't think Hart will produce the kind of home run power Sexson did at his peak, but Hart is faster and move valuable defensively, and he does have some untapped power upside. It's also possible he could stay where he is right now in the power department but add some additional batting average instead. Either way, I think Hart still has room for improvement, and given the fact that he's already very good as it is, he could end up having some outstanding seasons heading forward.

2008 Projections:

Shandler: .282/.334/.520
James: .297/.357/.534
ZIPS: .289/.353/.518
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .288/.358/.527
Me:  .305/.362/.510.

I'll be a bit different on this one and go with a higher batting average and OBP but a bit less isolated power this year.

PECOTA really likes him. Comps include Sammy Sosa, Cliff Floyd, Joe Carter, Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield, Ron Gant, and Ellis Burks. The most negative comp is the second one, Wes Chamberlain. Top Sim Scores through age 25 are Bill Nicholson, Tommy Henrich, Ivan Calderon, Bobby Higginson, Jacque Jones, Jim Edmonds, Jon Nunnally, David Justice, and Larry Doby. Nunnally is the weakest player in the bunch. Both comparisons systems like what Hart is done and project him as a very solid player, even an excellent one.

Basically there is nothing not to like here. If Hart merely stays where he is right now, he'll be a very good player. If he improves in some way, boosting additional power, or adding more batting average and OBP, or both, he's a legitimate star. Some comparable players have ended up as Hall of Fame type talents. That's an observation, NOT a prediction, so don't go buying truckloads of Corey Hart cards. But it does show the direction some similar players have developed in.

Community projection for Jeremy Hermida. Take it seriously folks, no "he'll hit .397 and lead my fantasy team to victory" stuff.

Project:
Games
At-bats
Runs
Hits
doubles
triples
homers
RBI
walks
strikeouts
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct)
steals
caught stealing

The community projection for B.J. Upton came out like this:

We had 36 entries. The projection:
147 games, 542 at-bats, 97 runs, 155 hits, 32 doubles, 5 triples, 25 homers, 93 RBI, 72 walks, 143 strikeouts, 30 steals, 10 caught, .286 average, .370 OBP, .502 SLG.

Many projections seemed unrealistically optimistic to me, but the final result looks OK, if still on the aggressive side. Comparisons:

CP: .286/.370/.502
Shandler: .275/.361/.439
James: .276/.362/.452
ZIPS: .278/.363/.452
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .270/.358/.455

The community is optimistic compared to these other projections, esp. in the SLG department. We will see.

Weekend: Compiling B.J. Upton projection, Community Projection for Jeremy Hermida
Monday: Not a Rookie: Corey Hart
Tuesday: Unsung Prospect: Allen Craig
Wednesday: Not a Rookie: Adam Loewen
Thursday: Prospect Bust: Dee Brown
Friday: Not a Rookie: Dustin McGowan
Weekend: Compiling Hermida Projection, Community Projection for Casey Kotchman
Monday: Not a Rookie: Justin Upton

Is There Any Hope for Andy Marte?

I was all set to write this big thing about Marte. But the more I looked at it, the more I think it's not that complicated, really. I think he simply reached his peak earlier than most players, which is not to say he can't still be useful. More on that in a second.

Marte's best attributes as a prospect were age-relative-to-league, power, and strike zone judgment. But he hasn't hit particularly well since leaving the Atlanta system, and has basically shown no signs of improvement at all in three years. From watching him play, he looks a little....heavier....than he did back in '04 or '05. By heavier I don't mean his actual weight necessarily, but rather that he seems to have lost some quickness, some lightness afoot if you will. His performance certainly has been rock-steady at Buffalo, .773 OPS in 2006 and .766 in 2007, slightly above league averages but not performance that will push him into a major league job by itself.

His current MLEs make him as a .240/.300/.430 hitter or so in the majors. That's a better line than his .201/.263/.356 major league mark in 278 at-bats, and I do think that if someone gave Marte 500 at-bats that he'd hit something like what the MLEs show, probably somewhat better, say .250/.320/.450 would be my guess. But that's obviously not great.

Marte is still just 24 years old, three or four years away from the theoretical peak. I think getting a fresh start in a new organization would help him. Things I have heard indicate that he's been pretty frustrated in Cleveland and keeps pressing, trying to hit seven-run homers every at-bat to force his way into a job. This dovetails well with scouting reports that he's become excessively power-conscious, trying to pull everything.

My guess is that Marte will get one more good chance somewhere, and still has a reasonable shot to develop into a useful, productive slugger. Given his age, it is too early to give up totally and condemn him to Triple-A sluggerdom. But even if he does turn things around, I no longer see him as a potential star player. Age-relative-to-league is important, but it's just one factor, and some players peak early. I think that's what happened here. He's better than he's looked in the majors, and he can beat what he's done in Buffalo. But his chance to be a star is gone I think.

Not a Rookie: Adam Jones

Adam Jones was drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the supplemental first round in 2003 out of high school in San Diego, 37th overall. For awhile in high school he was better regarded as a pitcher due to a 92 MPH fastball, but the Mariners decided to use him as a shortstop. He was considered highly athletic but very raw. He hit .284/.368/.349 in rookie ball, showing very little power. I gave him a Grade C+, rating him as raw but promising.

Jones moved up to Wisconsin in the Midwest League in 2004. He hit .267/.314/.404 with 11 homers, 33 walks, and 124 strikeouts. Defensively he showed a strong arm and the potential to be excellent at shortstop with more experience. Offensively he showed some power development, but his approach was very erratic. I wrote in the book: "Jones has bat speed, but his approach is very inconsistent, even from at-bat to at-bat.. . in one game I saw, he worked the count very effectively in one at-bat, then was completely helpless and overaggressive the rest of the game." I gave him another Grade C+.

Promoted to Class A Inland Empire in 2005, Jones hit .295/.374/.494 in 68 games. He moved up to Double-A San Antonio at mid-season, hitting .298/.365/.461 in 63 contests. He looked good with the glove but by the end of the year the Mariners had decided to make him an outfielder due to organizational needs. Offensively he hit 15 homers with 30 doubles, showing improved power development. His strike zone judgment improved as well. Seeing him play late in the year for San Antonio, I wrote "His balance at the plate looked much better, and he did a stronger job working counts" compared to what I saw the year before. I rated him at Grade B+ in the 2006 book.

Jones spent most of 2006 in Triple-A, hitting .287/.345/.484 in 96 games for Tacoma, with 16 homers. He hit .216/.237/.311 in 32 games for the Mariners. He developed into an excellent defender in the outfield. Offensively his power continued to come along, but his strike zone judgment still needed work. I gave him another Grade B+, high on the long-term but advising that he needed more Triple-A time and that he wouldn't put up big major league numbers in the short run.

2007 was another split season between Tacoma and Seattle. He hit .314/.382/.586 with 25 homers in 101 games for Tacoma, and .246/.300/.400 in 41 games for the Mariners, though he got just 65 at-bats in the majors. The power production has really improved, while strike zone judgment remains an issue. Given his age (22), his performance has been very credible, at least compared to the punchless rookie ball kid he was four years ago.

In the majors, Jones is a career .230/.267/.353 hitter in 73 games, 139 at-bats, too much playing time to qualify as a rookie though he's hardly established. He gets a chance now in Baltimore. What should we expect?

Short term, 2008 predictions

Shandler: .261/.311/.421
James: .270/.323/.459
ZIPS: .276/.335/.477
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .273/.333/.468
Me: .259/.321/.449.

I like Jones in the long run. The increase in power has been notable, his defense is a big plus, and he's shown a great work ethic and attitude in making these improvements. But he still has a strike zone control issue, and at this point I will be surprised if he does much in the batting average and OBP department right now. I suspect he will be rather erratic this year, improve slightly in '09, then break out in '10. One key will be getting consistent playing time, not getting jerked around by an impatient manager. They need to let him play and play a lot so he can work his problems out.