Not A Rookie: Justin Upton

Justin Upton was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2005, the first overall pick, out of high school in Chesapeake, Virginia. He was a renowned amateur player and the younger brother of B.J. Upton, himself an exceptional prospect. Scouts loved B.J, and most of them thought that Justin could be even better. He didn't sign until January 2006 but I gave him a Grade A- in the 2006 book anyway, based on his scouting reports.

Assigned to South Bend in the Midwest League for '06, Upton had a somewhat disappointing season. He hit .263/.343/.413 with 12 homers and 15 steals, which is actually not bad at all for the Midwest League, well-known for cold weather and poor hitting environments. His OPS came out OK at +10 percent compared to league, and his Secondary Average was good at +31 percent. He continued to impress scouts with his tools, although some felt he was just coasting, questioning his work ethic, especially early in the season.  His makeup was previously considered to be excellent. I gave him a Grade A- in the 2007 book, still considering him an elite prospect but watching to see if the work ethic issue got better or got worse.

Upton began 2007 at Visalia in the California League, tearing it apart with a .341/.433/.540 mark in 32 games. Promoted to Double-A Mobile, he continued crushing the ball, hitting .309/.399/.556 with 13 homers. He combined to steal 19 bases between the two levels. The work ethic problem was apparently not a long-term issue, as he appeared to learn from 2006. Promoted to the majors, he hit just .221/.283/.364 in 43 games and is no longer a technical rookie. However, given his extreme young age his shaky major league numbers don't really concern me. If he was still technically a prospect I'd have him as Number One on my list.

I think all Upton really needs to thrive is more experience. From a purely player development perspective, I would love it if he would get a season of Triple-A under his belt to make final adjustments in his game, then stick him in the majors as a regular in 2009 at the age of 21. That would be my ideal. But I'm generally conservative about promoting prospects, and the Diamondbacks are going to go ahead and use him as the everyday right fielder this year by all accounts. It's not what I would do, but they didn't ask me.

What can we expect? Short run predictions for 2008

James: .278/.353/.496
Shandler: .270/.344/.467
ZIPS: .248/.313/.404
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .271/.349/.471
Me: .259/.325/.429.

Three very similar, ZIPS the outlier. I'm not as optimistic as James, Shandler, and PECOTA, as I think he needs more adjustment time and the short-term performance might be rather mediocre.

PECOTA comps are interesting. Delmon Young is the top one, B.J. Upton second. Other names on the list are a mixture of stars, decent players, and busts: Adrian Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, Ben Grieve, Chad Hermansen (scary!), Dee Brown (double-scary), Ken Griffey Jr (very nice), Shawn Green, Vernon Wells. PECOTA thinks that Upton could be excellent, but that he isn't a sure thing quite yet.

In the long run, I think Upton will be on the upper end of those expectations, perhaps not quite Ken Griffey Jr-in-his-prime good but not far from that. As long as he keeps his head on straight, and doesn't have some sort of catastrophic injury, I think he'll live up to what people expect of him.

The schedule for this coming week

Monday: Not a Rookie: Justin Upton
Tuesday: Secret Something That Is Really Freaking Cool That You Will Love
Wednesday: Assessing Fernando Martinez
Thursday: Not a Rookie: Matt Kemp
Friday: Not a Rookie: Scott Baker
Saturday: Kotchman Projection Results, Community Projection Zack Greinke

I'm going to be quite busy this week and extremely busy the week after that, so things that are less time-consuming are better. We will do an AQA thread during the first week of the regular season.

Next up is Casey Kotchman. Project

Games
At-bats
Runs
Hits
Doubles
Triples
Homers
RBI
Walks
Strikeouts
Batting average (make sure H/AB calc is correct)
Steals
Caught Stealing

Jeremy Hermida Projection Results:

We had 23 entries. The Results:

139 games, 502 at-bats, 75 runs, 145 hits, 32 doubles, 2 triples, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 59 walks, 107 strikeouts, 7 steals, 4 caught stealing, .290/.364/.492

Hermida hit .296/.369/.501 last year, so the community expects his production to remain steady. Shandler has him at .290/.371/.494. James has him at .287/.384/.490. ZIPS has him at .271/.354/.447, much less optimistic. Weighted Mean PECOTA is .283/.378/.483, close to everyone but ZIPS.

ZIPS  .801
Community OPS projection  .856
PECOTA .861
Shandler  .865
James  .874

Not a Rookie: Dustin McGowan

Dustin McGowan was drafted in the supplemental first round of the 2000 draft, 33rd overall, out of high school in Ludowici, Georgia.  He was your basic high school pitching prospect, an athletic kid who threw hard but needed polish. He posted a 6.48 ERA in 25 innings with an ugly 19/25 K/BB ratio in his pro debut for Medicine Hat in the Pioneer League. I would give a similar raw pitcher drafted that high a Grade C or C+ nowadays.

McGowan moved up to Auburn in the New York-Penn League in 2001 and did much better, with a 3.76 ERA and a 80/49 K/BB in 67 innings. His walk rate was still too high, but the dramatic improvement in K/IP stood out, and scouts were impressed with his 92-94 MPH fastball. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2002 book, writing that he had good stuff but that his career could take any number of directions.

The Jays sent McGowan to Charleston in the Sally League in 2002 and left him there all year. He went 11-10, 4.19 with a 163/59 K/BB in 148 innings. Again an impressive K/IP and this time combined with better control. He gained a tick on his fastball, now at 93-95 MPH, and his curveball was a plus pitch. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2003 book and ranked him as the Number 38 pitching prospect in baseball.

McGowan split 2003 between Dunedin in the Florida State League and Double-A New Haven, pitching very well at both levels. He went 7-0, 3.17 with a 72/19 K/BB in 77 innings in Double-A, very impressive. His fastball was now up to 94-95 consistently, his curveball and slider continued to improve, and he was mixing in a better changeup now. I gave him a Grade A- and ranked him as the Number Seven pitching prospect in the game. I noted his steady strong development, but also warned that, like any pitching prospect, injuries were a risk, though he'd been remarkably healthy thus far.

Injuries finally hit him in 2004: he blew out his elbow and had to have Tommy John surgery after six starts in Double-A. I reduced his rating to Grade B- in the 2005 book, pending injury recovery.

McGowan's surgery went well and when he retook the mound in 2005 he had his fastball back, hitting 94-95 MPH again. However his breaking stuff and command regressed, completely  understandable given the circumstances. He was adequate in 11 minor league starts but was hit hard in 45 innings for the major league team, giving up a 6.35 ERA. I rated him at Grade B in the '06 book, still intrigued with him long-term and notingthat he just needed to get his command and confidence back.

That didn't happen in 2006: he was mediocre in Triple-A and was hit hard in the majors again. But in 2007 he got things back in gear, going 12-10, 4.08 with a 144/61 K/BB in 170 innings for the Blue Jays.

I really like McGowan and as long as he stays healthy, he's got a chance to become an excellent pitcher. I like his development curve, how he made steady improvement each year until interrupted by Tommy John. He's not far off right now, and in my opinion just slight improvement in his command could put him in the elite category.

Will that happen in 2008? PECOTA doesn't really agree with this, forecasting some regression and giving him a weighted mean ERA of 4.60 this year. Ron Shandler is more optimistic with a 3.98 projected ERA. Bill James is closer to Shandler at 4.04. ZIPS has him at 3.97, which makes PECOTA the outlier among these projection systems. We will see who comes closest, but I lean to the optimists.

In long-run terms, comps through age 25 aren't especially optimistic: Sim Score comps include Robinson Tejeda, Russ Kemmerer, Boof Bonser, Jason Davis, Bill Pulsipher, Rich Robertson, Geremi Gonzalez, Tom Hume, Cliff Lee, and Jerry Janeski, hardly distinguished company. PECOTA comps look much better with Dock Ellis, Roger Pavlik, Freddy Garcia, Dick Ruthven, Scott Sanders, Kirk McCaskill, Aaron Sele, Steve Busby, Mike Moore and Jack Morris as notable comps. PECOTA is more sophisticated than simple Sim Scores and I think that list of comps is more accurate. So while PECOTA isn't overly bullish on McGowan this year, it does find him comparable to several guys who had productive careers.

There is just something about this guy that strikes me that even those positive comps could be underdoing it. So I'll throw this out there now. Assuming McGowan starts the year healthy and makes 30+ starts, I think he'll go 15-10, 3.50, with a 185/59 K/BB in 205 innings. I also pick him as a candidate to throw a no-hitter.

Failed Prospect: Dee Brown

One of the biggest prospect busts of the last decade is failed Kansas City Royals prospect Dee Brown.

Dermal Brown was drafted in the first round in 1996, 14th overall, out of high school in New York. He got into just seven games in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League, going 1-for-20. Extremely toolsy, he was considered highly-promising due to his power/speed combination, and wasn't quite as raw as a lot of cold-weather high school players. I didn't give draftees grades back then but in retrospect his scouting reports would have earned him a Grade B or B-.

Brown moved up to Spokane in the Northwest League in 1997, hitting .326/.404/.564 with 13 homers and 17 steals in 298 at-bats. Power and speed were quite evident, and he drew 38 walks in 298 at-bats against 65 strikeouts. Scouts were also impressed with his work ethic. I didn't give short-season players letter grades back then, but he'd get at least a Grade B now and perhaps a Grade B+.

1998 saw Brown assigned to Wilmington in the Carolina League. He hit .258/.347/.403 with 10 homers, 26 steals, and 53 walks with 115 strikeouts in 442 at-bats. He also got into five games for the major league club. Brown got off to a really slow start, plus Wilmington was death for hitters, so his performance was actually pretty solid. At this point his biggest problem was defense, as he looked very sloppy with the glove according to scouts. I gave him a Grade B-, but noted that he could put up monstrous numbers at Double-A Wichita.

Brown began 1999 at Wilmington, hitting .308/.431/.548 in 61 games. Promoted to Wichita, he went on a real tear, hitting .353/.440/.591. He combined for 25 homers and 30 steals and walked 79 times on the season. Power, speed, strike zone judgment, fairly good strikeout rate, just 21 years old. There were still doubts about his glove but everything else looked excellent. I saw him play a lot for Wichita, and he was so far above the league it was ridiculous. He hit everything, fastballs, breaking stuff, changeups. I gave him a Grade A and didn't look back.

Brown went to spring training in 2000 with a shot at an outfield job, but he didn't make the roster and got sent to Omaha to work on his glovework. He sulked, got into an argument with his manager, even got suspended at one point. Remember, his work ethic and attitude were considered positives before this point. He recovered enough to have an OK year in Triple-A, hitting .269/.324/.491 with 23 homers and 20 steals, showing the power/speed combo again. His plate discipline took a big hit, with just 37 walks against 112 strikeouts. I didn't lose faith and gave him a Grade B+, but it was clearly a disappointing season.

The Royals gave Brown a job in 2001 and he hit .245/.286/.350, much less than expected, in 380 at-bats. He ended up back in Omaha in 2002, and has spent the last five years bouncing around the upper minors. His last significant major league playing time was in 2004 when he hit .259/.293/.349 in 195 at-bats for the Royals. His career line in the majors is .233/.280/.333 in 814 at-bats.

What the hell happened here?

Picking through the Rotowire archives, I find this quotation from former Royals GM Allard Baird on March 26th, 2004. GM Allard Baird said "I still believe he has the physical attributes to hit, but he needs to turn those attributes into performance. To this point, he hasn't."

Living near Kansas City and going to a lot of Omaha and Wichita games during Brown's tenure, I saw a lot of Brown at all three levels, and I think Baird was right, the attributes were there. The bat speed was always there, and when his swing was locked in, he showed power to all fields, wasn't a strict pull hitter, and handled both breaking stuff and fastballs well. He would go on terrific hot streaks at times. He showed the ability to control the strike zone at least adequately. This is the player I saw in Double-A and Triple-A, a guy who looked like a solid major league regular outfielder at worst.

And then he'd move up to the majors and he didn't look like the same guy. His swing would be. . .trying to find a word for it. . .less fluid? Awkward? Almost constricted in a way? He didn't look like he was having fun, he didn't look relaxed. He would press. He'd be either too passive or too aggressive, unable to find a middle ground. His body language in the majors was very different than in the minors. Nagging injuries didn't help, but even when healthy he just didn't look like the same confident player I saw in the minors.

The 2000 Omaha sulking went away quickly enough that the organization still liked him a lot  as a person, and from what I heard from local sources his problems post-2000 weren't work-ethic related. But I do think perhaps there was something psychological going on, in the sense that he was never able to get truly comfortable in the majors. Why that happened, I don't know.

Not a Rookie: Adam Loewen

Adam Loewen was drafted by the Orioles in the first round in 2002, fourth overall, out of high school in Surrey, British Columbia. He didn't sign right away, but he skipped his Arizona State scholarship and went to Chipola JC instead to retain the ability to sign. I didn't give him a grade in the 2003 book since it was unclear what would happen to him. He had a good campaign in junior college and signed with Baltimore right before he would have gone back into the '03 draft pool. His pro debut was strong: 2.70 ERA with a 25/9 K/BB in 23 innings in the New York-Penn League. I gave him a Grade B in the '04 book, noting that he had ace potential if he could improve his command.

Loewen spent most of 2004 at Class A Delmarva in the Sally League, going 4-5, 4.11 with a 82/58 K/BB in 85 innings. He also made two starts for Class A Frederick, losing both and allowing nine walks in eight innings. Problems with his mechanics hampered his command, and his season ended early with a labrum injury. This was corrected without surgery, but the injury combined with his command problems limited him to a Grade C+ in the 2005 book.

Loewen spent 2005 at Frederick, going 10-8, 4.12 with a 146/86 K/BB in 142 innings. Impressive K/IP but too many walks stand out. Scouting reports pointed out his 90-95 MPH fastball, big-breaking curve, and strong ground ball tendencies, but also noted the remaining command issues. I wrote that "he could turn into Francisco Liriano, but he could also turn into Ty Howington" and moved him back up to Grade B.

2006 saw Loewen pitch very well at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, sharpening his command considerably, but struggling in the majors, going 6-6, 5.37 with a 98/62 K/BB. Last year he kept his ERA low at 3.56, but of course was limited to just 30.1 innings by injury. And in those 30.1 innings his K/BB was an ugly 22/26.

Two issues here: health and command. The elbow stress fracture that ended his '07 campaign early is fine now and is not expected to be an issue. There hasn't been a recurrence thus far of the labrum problem from 2004. Of course it's entirely possible that either problem could recur or something else could happen. I can't predict that obviously.

As for the command issue, anyone who has seen Loewen pitch knows he's got first-class stuff when healthy and just needs to be more consistent with it. But that's a big "just needs"...can Loewen actually do it?

 The top name on Loewen's Sim Score list is Al Leiter, who also ranks highly (fifth) on his PECOTA comp list. The Lieter comp makes a lot of sense to me: injury and command problems, occasionally overpowering, a better-than-average pitcher overall with flashes of brilliance but never quite living up to his complete potential. That's' what I expect out of Loewen at this point, assuming he doesn't completely fall apart.

Unsung Prospect: Allen Craig

Here is the comment for Allen Craig from the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book.

SLEEPER ALERT. The Cardinals drafted Craig in the eighth round in 2006, out of the University of California. As you can see, he has been very successful as a pro, and it's a bit of a puzzle why he's received so little attention. He has very good bat speed and power to all fields. His plate discipline needs work, and it's possible his batting average will drop off at higher levels, though the power should remain. He was one of the best hitters in the Florida State League last year, posting an excellent +26 percent OPS, ranking third in batting average, third in OPS, third in homers, and third in SLG. Defense is an issue. He has a strong arm, but lacks consistency with his footwork and has spent time at shortstop, outfield, and third base. He might end up at a corner outfield spot eventually if he can't settle down in the infield, but his bat will play there if current trends continue. He turns 24 in July so he needs to move quickly, but if you are looking for an under-the-radar hitter, Craig is a great candidate. Grade B-.

I think that lays it out pretty well. He has the arm for third base and perhaps additional reps will improve his range and reliability, though it seems unlikely he will become more than average defensively in the infield. If he hits well an average glove will be enough. It will be interesting to see what he does against a full season of advanced pitching, but my guess is that he'll continue to hit impressively in Double-A and Triple-A and may not be fully challenged until he sees major league pitchers.

PECOTA comps include guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff, Steve Pearce, and Mark Reynolds, but also Mark Quinn, Cole Liniak, and Russ Davis. We need to get more data from higher levels to see exactly where Craig stands, but he IS an unsung prospect, in the sense of deserving more attention than he has received.

Not a Rookie: Corey Hart

Corey Hart was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 11th round in 2000, out of high school in Bowling Green, Kentucky. Drafted as a first baseman, he wasn't a hot prospect on draft day, but the Brewers liked his height (6-6), power potential, and athleticism. He held his own in rookie ball, hitting .287/.332/.366 in 216 at-bats for Ogden in the Pioneer League. That was back in the STATS days when I didn't put many short-season players in the book. Nowadays he'd get a Grade C "with higher potential" rating, pending additional data.

Hart returned to Ogden in 2001 and hit .340/.395/.542 with 11 homers and 14 steals in 262 at-bats. I did put him in the book in '02, giving him a Grade C rating, noting his strong performance, power potential, and unusual speed for a first baseman. I also noted that his plate discipline was erratic and that the Brewers didn't have a great track record at the time helping similar players develop.

After an impressive spring camp, Hart skipped low Class A and went directly to the California League in 2002. He hit .288/.356/.573 with 22 homers and 24 steals in 100 games for High Desert, then .266/.340/.362 in 28 games for Double-A Huntsville. The High Desert numbers were inflated by the environment, but he was just 20 years old, had skipped a level, and wasn't completely overmatched after being promoted to Double-A. His plate discipline needed work, but I gave him a Grade B, noting that "there is a lot to like here."

Hart spent all of 2003 at Huntsville, hitting .302/.340/.467. He hit just 13 homers, but knocked 40 doubles and stole 25 bases. His plate discipline was an issue with a 28/101/493 BB/K/AB ratio, but it didn't seem to hurt him much. He has an unusually compact swing for such a tall player. He played third base that year, as the Brewers were trying to figure out how to fit him into the future lineup, but I projected that he would end up in an outfield corner. I gave him another Grade B and rated him as the Number 42 hitting prospect in baseball.

2004 was a solid season: he hit .281/.342/.485 with 15 homers and 17 steals for Triple-A Indianapolis. He increased his walk rate significantly, and moved to the outfield full-time. I gave him yet another Grade B, writing that I didn't "think that Hart was going to be a star, but if he can maintain decent command of the strike zone, he should be a solid player." He just missed the Top 50.

A return engagement in Triple-A in 2005 resulted in a .308/.377/.536, 17 homer, 31 steal mark for Nashville. I gave him another Grade B, noting that Hart just needed a chance to play and he'd be a darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate. As you know he finally got to play in '06 and '07, and indeed he's done quite well. Hart is a career .284/.339/.505 hitter at the major league level through 800 at-bats.

I expect this to continue. While I don't think he will ever be a walk machine, he doesn't need to be. He doesn't strike out that much for a guy with power, and I like his multi-skills. When Hart was just starting out he was compared to Richie Sexson due to his size and wingspan. I don't think Hart will produce the kind of home run power Sexson did at his peak, but Hart is faster and move valuable defensively, and he does have some untapped power upside. It's also possible he could stay where he is right now in the power department but add some additional batting average instead. Either way, I think Hart still has room for improvement, and given the fact that he's already very good as it is, he could end up having some outstanding seasons heading forward.

2008 Projections:

Shandler: .282/.334/.520
James: .297/.357/.534
ZIPS: .289/.353/.518
Weighted Mean PECOTA: .288/.358/.527
Me:  .305/.362/.510.

I'll be a bit different on this one and go with a higher batting average and OBP but a bit less isolated power this year.

PECOTA really likes him. Comps include Sammy Sosa, Cliff Floyd, Joe Carter, Andre Dawson, Dave Winfield, Ron Gant, and Ellis Burks. The most negative comp is the second one, Wes Chamberlain. Top Sim Scores through age 25 are Bill Nicholson, Tommy Henrich, Ivan Calderon, Bobby Higginson, Jacque Jones, Jim Edmonds, Jon Nunnally, David Justice, and Larry Doby. Nunnally is the weakest player in the bunch. Both comparisons systems like what Hart is done and project him as a very solid player, even an excellent one.

Basically there is nothing not to like here. If Hart merely stays where he is right now, he'll be a very good player. If he improves in some way, boosting additional power, or adding more batting average and OBP, or both, he's a legitimate star. Some comparable players have ended up as Hall of Fame type talents. That's an observation, NOT a prediction, so don't go buying truckloads of Corey Hart cards. But it does show the direction some similar players have developed in.

Community projection for Jeremy Hermida. Take it seriously folks, no "he'll hit .397 and lead my fantasy team to victory" stuff.

Project:
Games
At-bats
Runs
Hits
doubles
triples
homers
RBI
walks
strikeouts
batting average (make sure the H/AB calc is correct)
steals
caught stealing