I am back at it after a weekend away from writing, as I usually work on the prospect lists on the weekends. Here is a quick post on two pitching prospects who will more than likely be in their respective teams starting rotations in 2011-Braves pitcher Mike Minor and Blue Jays pitcher Kyle Drabek.

Minor had his cup of coffee in 2010 with mixed results. He appeared in 9 games, 8 as a starter, covering 40 innings, where he went 3-2, struck out 43, walked 11 with a 5.98 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. He was a bit unlucky as his BABIP was an extremely high .396 and his strand rate just 65%. He had an excellent K rate of 9.52 and BB rate of just 2.43. What is impressive was that with all the bad luck in strand rate and BABIP, his FIP was 3.77 and his xFIP was 3.86.

In his stops at AA and AAA in 2010, Minor went 6-7 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.155 WHIP and a K rate that approached 11 and BB rate of 3.4. In 120.1 innings, he struck out 146 and walked just 46 giving up just 9 HRs in the process.

Drabek also had his cup of coffee in 2010 as he made 3 starts, going 0-3 in 17 innings pitched, striking out 12 and walking 5, with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.35. His K rate of 6.35 was mediocre at best, but his BB rate of 2.65 was solid. His FIP of 4.08 and xFIP of 3.59 were excellent, but like Minor, covered a small sample size.

At AA New Hampshire, Drabek was 14-9 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. In 162 innings, Drabek struck out 132 and walked 68, so it appears he will need to work on his control in spring training.

I think both will struggle a bit in 2011, as most young starting pitchers do, but think both are rosterable in AL/NL-only leagues, especially keeper leagues. I have stated previously, probably over at Fake Teams, that I am high on Minor on 2011 as I love pitchers with high K rates.

Hello everyone. Let me apologize for not writing lately (before Saturday), but with the holidays and wanting to finish my 2011 position rankings over at Fake Teams, coupled with John posting his team prospect lists at a feverish pace, I decided to hold off on my 2011 prospect fantasy rankings by position.

I will pick up with the Top Fantasy Outfielder Prospect rankings for 2011 and then move on to pitchers in the next week. The outfielder rankings are headed by 3 A-rated prospects who I think will see plenty of time at the major league level in 2011, and I included Brandon Belt as we are not sure where the Giants will play him this year. His best position is first base, but he could see some outfield time this year.

The top fantasy outfielder rankings for 2011 are as follows:

1. Domonic Brown, PHI-Brown dominated in AA/AAA in 2010 hitting .327-.391-.589 with 20 HRs, 68 RBIs, 17 SBs in 24 attempts and a 74-37 K/BB rate. I don't like the way the Phillies handled Brown in 2010 as they should have sent him back to AAA after Shane Victorino returned from the DL in August. Brown did not play much in Philadelphia and could have used more at bats in AAA to close out the season. There is talk that he will start the season in AAA, and I am on the fence whether that will happen or not, but if it does, I don't see it lasting much past early May. Brown is another must add in keeper leagues and a late round pick in mixed leagues in 2011.

2. Desmond Jennings, TB-Jennings had a bit of a disappointing season in 2010, as he hit .278-.362-.393 with 3 HRs , 36 RBIs, 37 SBs in 41 attempts and a solid 67-47 K/BB rate. Jennings should replace departed free agent Carl Crawford in left field in 2011, and I expect him to hit for a good BA and steal 30+ bases in a full-time role. Jennings is a must add in keeper leagues and a late round pickup in mixed leagues in 2011.

3. Brandon Belt, SFG-Belt's prospect status rose in a big way in 2010 as he hit .352-.455-.620 with 23 HRs, 112 RBIs, 22 SBs in 30 attempts, and a 99-93 K/BB rate at 3 levels. Belt probably won't steal many bases in the big leagues, but he should be a solid BA and average power. He appears to have an advanced approach at the plate, and many felt the Giants should give him a shot at winning the first base job in 2011, and after watching him in the AFL All-Star game, I agree. He is a must add in keeper leagues, and is draftable in deep mixed leagues.

More rankings after the jump:

Continue reading this post »

Here is the fourth article in the series of top prospects by position addressing the Top Fantasy Shortstop Prospects for 2011. This list is the top shortstop prospects for 2011 for fantasy purposes, so it will be slightly different than what you would see from John and other prospect experts. In addition, I will post an aggregated list of top shortstop prospects that will combine the 2011 list along with the top shortstop prospects for keeper leagues.

Here is my look at the Top Shortstop prospects for 2011:

1. Danny Espinosa, WAS-Espinosa is slated to be the Nationals starting second baseman in 2011, but his main position is shortstop, where he played the majority of his games in 2010. He hit .268-.337-.468 with 22 HRs, 69 RBIs, and 25 SBs with a 116-41 K/BB rate. He won't hit for a high BA, due to the strikeouts, but he has power and speed, which are very valuable to fantasy owners. Fantasy owners will need to pay attention to how he returns from the hammate bone surgery he had recently to see if it reduces his power in spring training, assuming he is healthy. If healthy, he is a must own in keeper leagues, and a late round pick in mixed leagues. Bill James and ZIPs project him to have a 20-20 season in 2011.

2. Zack Cozart, CIN (25 y/o)-Cozart hit .255-.310-.416 at AAA in 2010, with 17 HRs, 67 RBIs, and 30 SBs in 34 attempts. His K/BB rate was 107-40 last year, a dropoff from the solid 87-63 rate at AA in 2009. The Reds have yet to sign a free agent SS, and could go with Paul Janish, who has a good glove, but Cozart has a good glove and a bat with some pop. He could hold his own in Cincinnati if given the chance.

3. Chase d'Arnaud, PIT (24 y/o)-d'Arnaud slumped in AA in 2010, hitting just .247-.331-.377 with 6 HRs, 48 RBIs, and 33 SBs in 40 attempts, to go with a K/BB rate of 102-56. D'Arnaud clearly struggled with the step up to AA, but with the youth movement that is occurring in Pittsburgh, I could see him getting some time with the big club should he show an improved eye at the plate. After an OBP of .398 in 2009, his OBP dropped to .331 in 2010. If he can get that up to the .350-.360 range, d'Arnaud could be a fantasy asset as he has stolen 78 bases in 95 attempts in his minor league career.

More after the jump:

Continue reading this post »

I am about a day behind in getting the Top Fantasy Shortstop prospect article posted as I went to the Eagles-Giants game on Sunday. With the early departure for tailgating and waiting for traffic to die down before leaving the parking lot, I didn't get a chance to write anything this weekend. 

Here is a question I am pondering when looking at the Keeper League shortstop rankings-who would you rather have in long term keeper leagues-Grant Green or Nick Franklin?

Green hit .318-.363-.520 with 20 HRs, 87 RBIs and 9 SBs at High A Stockton in 2010. But, with the power comes alot of strikeouts. Green struck out 117 times and walked only 38 times in 548 at bats last year. His K/BB rate could get worse as he faces more experienced pitching. Plus, one has to ask whether his numbers were padded hitting in the hitter-friendly Cal League.

Franklin hit .283-.354-.486 with 23 HRs, 65 RBIs and 25 SBs with Low A Clinton in the Midwest league in 2010. Like Green, Franklin struck out alot-124 times in 516 at bats, while walking 51 times, and could continue the high whiff rate as he moves up to AA in 2011.

Who would you rather have in long term keeper leagues-Green or Franklin?

In Wednesday's blog post, Buster Olney had this to say about Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon:

The Pirates will have the No. 1 pick in next year's draft, and the player widely considered to be the best player is Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, who scouts say has the talent to play in the majors within a year after the draft. "If he and [Bryce] Harper were in the same draft, I think I'd take Rendon because he plays in the infield," said one rival talent evaluator. "Their [offensive] skills are comparable."

In 2010, Rendon hit .394-.539-.801 with 26 HRs, 85 RBIs, 14 SBs, and an incredible 22/65 K/BB rate. In 2009, he hit .388-.468-.702 with a 23/31 K/BB rate.

Harper is probably one of the top 2 or 3 prospects in the game, and could see the big leagues by 2012. It sounds like Rendon could be right behind him once he is drafted.

Who would you rather have in a long term keeper/dynasty league-Harper or Rendon?

IIn the third article in the series of top prospects by position, here is my early look at the Top Fantasy Second Base Prospects for 2011. I will give you the top second base prospects for 2011 for fantasy purposes, so this should be slightly different than what you would see form John and other prospect experts. In addition, I will post an aggregated list of top second base prospects that will combine the 2011 list along with the top second base prospects for keeper leagues.

Here is my look at the Top Second Base prospects for 2011:

1. Jason Kipnis, CLE-Kipnis performed well in his first full minor league season in 2010, hitting .307-.386-.492 with 16 HRs, 74 RBIs, 9 SBs and a 107-55 K/BB rate at two levels. He ended the season at AA Akron, where he hit .311-.385-.502 in 315 at bats. He is blocked by Luis Valbuena and Jason Donald at the big league level, but they will not hold him back once he is ready. He should start the season at AAA, and could see some time in the big leagues in 2011. Otherwise, he should be ready in 2012. He should be owned in all keeper leagues, and could be a late round pick in larger mixed leagues in 2011.

2. Brett Lawrie, TOR-Lawrie was recently traded to the Blue Jays for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. Lawrie may have worn out his welcome with the Milwaukee front office after declining to play in the Arizona Fall League this fall. Nevertheless, Lawrie is still a very solid prospect with a good bat. He hit .285-.346-.451 with 8 HRs, 63 RBIs, 30 SBs, 36 2B, 16 3B and a 118-47 K/BB rate. Many have stated that he will probably move to the OF, but has yet to play in the OF yet. I wonder if he was asked to play the OF in the AFL, leading to him declining the request. He should be owned in all keeper leagues.

More after the jump:

Continue reading this post »

I am starting to take a look at the Top Second Base Prospects for 2011 and want to know who readers feel will be the more valuable keeper at second base-Jean Segura or Jason Kipnis? Kipnis has hit well at a higher level than Segura, but Segura put up some monster numbers in A ball in 2010.

Here are their 2010 stats:

Kipnis-16 HRs, 74 RBIs, 9 SBs, 32 2B, 8 3B, .307-.386-.492, 107-55 K/BB rate (23 yrs old in AA)

Segura-10 HRS, 79 RBIs, 50 SBs, 24 2B, 12 3B, .313-.365-.464, 72-45 K/BB rate (20 yrs old in Low A)

Kipnis is closer to the big leagues, and could see some time in Cleveland in 2011, while Segura will need a few more years in the minors.

So, who would you rather have in a keeper league?

In the second of the series of top prospects by position, here is an early look at the Top Fantasy First Base prospects for 2011. As I mentioned in the Top Catching prospects article, this list  is my take on which first base prospects will get the most playing time in 2011, and possibly help your fantasy teams.

Before I get started, a guy like Eric Hosmer, who is probably the #1 first base prospect in baseball, won't be ranked highly in this list as he probably won't see any time in the big leagues in 2011.

With that said, here is my take on the Top First Base prospects for fantasy purposes for 2011:

1. Freddie Freeman, ATL-barring signing or trading for a first baseman this offseason, which is unlikely unless his wrist injury is more serious than we know at this point, Freeman should be the Braves starting first baseman in 2011. Freeman, as a 20 year old, hit .319-.378-.521 with 18 HRs, 87 RBIs, 73 runs scored and 6 SBs at AAA Gwinnett in 2010. In his 4 minor league seasons, Freeman has hit 50 HRs in roughly 1,600 at bats, or about 1 every 32 at bats. Some question Freeman's power ceiling, and i think it is justified. Freeman just turned 21 in September, so he is very young for the majors, and I am not sure if he is draftable in any league, unless it is a keeper league.

2. Brandon Belt, SFG-Belt had a breakout season in 2010, hitting .352-.450-.620 with 23 HRs, 112 RBIs and 22 SBs at three levels in 2010 (A+, AA, and AAA). He sported an excellent 99-93 K/BB rate, and had a 15-13 K/BB at AAA in 48 ABs. With the Giants re-signing Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, and Aubrey Huff, it appears Belt will get more seasoning at AAA in 2011, but he could get a call in June should anyone get injured or go into a prolonged slump. Belt is definitely draftable in keeper leagues, but he is undraftable in re-draft leagues.

3. Brandon Allen, ARI-Allen, at this point, appears to have first dibs on the Diamondbacks first base job, with Adam Laroche electing free agency this offseason. Allen hit .261-.405-.528 with 25 HRs, 86 RBIs, 14 SBs and an excellent 95-83 K/BB rate. His 2010 K/BB rate is a far cry from the 2006-2008 seasons where he accumulated a 374-121 K/BB rate. He has played some LF in the minors and majors, so he offers manager Kirk Gibson some options to keep his bat in the lineup should they sign a first baseman like Derrek Lee this offseason.

4. Chris Carter, OAK-Carter made his major league debut in 2010 with the A's, hitting just .186-.256-.329 with 3 HRs, 7 RBIs and a 21-7 K/BB rate in 70 ABs. In AAA, Carter hit .258-.365-.529 with 31 HRs, 94 RBIs, and a 138-73 K/BB rate in 465 at bats. Carter's strikeout rates (112-156-133-138) the last 4 years may hold him back, but he does have nice power, which Oakland is lacking at the moment. Carter is listed as an outfielder on the A's 40-man roster, but has played the majority of his games at 1B the last few season. It's possible he gets some playing time in the outfield in 2011 withDaric Barton at first base.

5. Eric Hosmer, KC-I didn't originally have Hosmer ranked here, as I had him in the keeper league list below. But, I was watching MLB TV last night, and saw an interview with Royals GM Dayton Moore (cue the boos), and he told Peter Gammons that he would like to see Hosmer get a full season in AAA in 2011. I was a bit surprised with that, as Hosmer had about 200 ABs at AA in 2010. Then again, Hosmer is the best first base prospect in baseball, and he had a breakout season at two levels last season. He hit a combined .338-.406-.571 with 20 HRs, 86 RBIs, 14 SBs, and an excellent 66-59 K/BB rate. He hit very well in AA Northwest Arkansas, hitting .313-.365-.615 with 13 HRs, 35 RBIs and 3 SBs in 195 ABs. Dayton Moore has some shuffling to do once he decides Hosmer is ready to play 1B full time in Kansas City. If Hosmer played a full season at AA in 2010, I probably would have him ranked #1 or #2 on this list.

6. Yonder Alonso, CIN-Alonso hit .290-.362-.458 with 15 HRs, 69 RBIs and 13 SBs at AA and AAA in 2010. Alonso is blocked in Cincinnatti with MVP Joey Votto at first base, so he will probably return to AAA in 2011, or there is a slight chance he is dealt to a team where he has more opportunity to play at the major league level (Pirates make sense). He is one year removed from the hamate bone injury, and many are skeptical of his power potential, for good reason. Alonso has hit just 24 HRs in 800+ minor league at bats. 

7. Anthony Rizzo, SD-Rizzo was one the main pieces in the deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez to theRed Sox on Sunday. Rizzo hit .260-.334-.480 with 25 HRs, 100 RBIs, 10 SBs, and 132-61 K/BB rate at High A and AA in 2010. Rizzo will probably start the season at AAA Portland, and could be a September callup.

8. Jerry Sands, LAD-Sands started the 2010 season with Low A Great Lakes, but earned a promotion to AA Chattanooga by dominating Low A pitching, hitting .333-.432-.646 with 18 HRs, 46 RBIs, 14 SBs, with a 61-40 K/BB rate. At AA Chattanooga, Sands continued to hit well, hitting .270-.36-.529 with 17 HRs, 47 RBIs, 4 SBs, and a 62-33 K/BB rate. He played in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .299-.410-.494 with 3 HRS and a 19-16 K/BB rate. Fangraphs Bryan Smith scouted him in the AFL and felt he could be a .300 hitter in the big leagues. With James Loney at first base, Sands is blocked.....for now. But the Dodgers infield is lacking a power hitter and Sands could be a fit should he continue to hit for power and put up a solid triple slash line at AAA Albequerque.

9. Mark Trumbo, LAA-Trumbo is blocked at first base in Los Angeles by Kendry Morales, but could get a look as he has plenty of power. Trumbo hit .301-.368-.577 with 36 HRs, 122 RBIs and a 126-58 K/BB rate in 2010 at AAA Salt Lake City. Some prospect experts feel he could be a legitimate 25 HR bat in the big leagues should he get a full time job, but time is becoming precious for the soon-to-be 25 year old.

Others-Leslie Anderson, Lars Anderson, Chris Marrero, Brandon Snyder

Keeper Leagues

Keeper league owners will have a different strategy than re-draft league owners, as they are drafting players who have future value, but may be more than a year away from the big leagues. Here is a look at the first base prospects with the most keeper league value in 2011, but not listed in the list above:

1. Jonathan Singelton, PHI

2. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI