Minor League Ball

Odds and Ends

2009-01-08T17:17:31Z

Some odds and ends as I work to finish the Marlins.

**Drew Cumberland has been added to the Padres list; he should have been on there in the first place. Grade C+ rating, young, athletic, fast, line drive hitting ability but not much power and destined for 2B.

**David Huff grade changed from Grade B- to Grade B.

**Three prospects from the DeRosa trade added to the Cubs list: Jeff Stevens, Grade C+; John Gaub, Grade C; Chris Archer, Grade C.

Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects for 2009

2009-01-08T05:06:09Z

I had a low strikeout rate. . .

Detroit Tigers Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) Rick Porcello, RHP, Grade A-: Went back and forth on this one due to the K/IP issue, but ultimately decided to give him the benefit of the doubt due to his youth. More of a Webb/Zambrano type than a Beckett.

2) Ryan Perry, RHP, Grade B: Best of the power bullpen arms the Tigers drafted in 2009.

3) Brett Jacobson, RHP, Grade B-: Second-best of the power arms. Stuff not quite as good as Perry but better command.

4) Casey Crosby, LHP, Grade C+: I want to see some actual data beyond the GCL, but fall reports are promising. Much higher ceiling but concerned about command.

5) Jeff Larish, 1B, Grade C+: I don’t buy him as a third baseman, which makes him trade bait. I believe in the power, but won’t hit for average.

6) Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Grade C+: Another impressive power arm. The Tigers gathered a bunch of these for the future pen. Command an issue.

7) Wilkin Ramirez, OF, Grade C+: Put some of his tools together last year, but the high strikeout rate and problems with breaking balls remain serious concerns.

8) Scott Green, RHP, Grade C+ : Another lively high-ceiling power arm from the 2008 draft best-suited for relief work.

9) Casper Wells, OF, Grade C+: Added to 40-man roster after surprisingly good 2008 season, an under the radar guy who produced power and speed.

10) Alex Avila, C, Grade C+: Strong bat, I think more power will come, not sure about where he fits defensively.

11) Rudy Darrow, RHP, Grade C+: Extreme ground ball tendency along with decent strikeout rate, looks like a nice middle reliever.

12) Casey Fien, RHP, Grade C+: Another relief candidate with a good arm, good command.

13) Chris Lambert, RHP, Grade C+: Ex-Cardinal prospect revived career after trade, looks like he can be a useful inning-eater type.

14) Luis Marte, RHP, Grade C+: Another power arm, struggled in Double-A but I think he has some sleeper potential.

15) Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, Grade C+: Another promising reliever from 2008 draft.

16) Cale Iorg, SS, Grade C: Ranked 3^rd on the BA list, but I am extremely skeptical about his bat. I just don’t buy the “future all star” hype. I could be wrong, but his brother Eli has exactly the same weaknesses and looks like a failed prospect. Their scouting reports were quite similar at the same stage. If his name was “Cale Jones” instead of “Cale Iorg the son of a major leaguer,” would he have the same reputation?

17) Scott Sizemore, 2B, Grade C: I’m not convinced about his bat, either, and he doesn’t have Iorg’s athleticism and defensive skills to fall back on. Am I underrating him?

18) William Rhymes, 2B, Grade C: Will hit for average, but old for a prospect, looks like a good role player.

19) Brandon Hamilton, RHP, Grade C: Young and projectable, command fell apart in A-ball but will get more chances.

20) Dusty Ryan, C, Grade C: Strong arm, has power, but other than 73 at-bats at Toledo and 44 in Detroit, he’s never been a good hitter.

Others: Duane Below, LHP; Kyle Bloom, LHP; Brent The Eternal Prospect Clevlen, Andy Dirks, OF; Brandon Douglas (a sleeper) SS; Alfredo Figaro, RHP; Charlie Furbush, LHP; Jon Kibler, LHP, Noah Krol, RHP; Jonah Nickerson, RHP; Anthony Shawler, RHP; Zach Simons, RHP; Tyler Stohr, RHP; Ryan Strieby, 1B; Jade Todd, LHP; Danny Worth, SS.

As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

The Tigers have a weird system: they have one impact talent (Porcello), then a whole slew of power bullpen arms. Their position players are either future role players, or “future regulars” who are (in my opinion) dramatically overrated by other sources. I could be wrong, but given the totality of their track records I just don’t buy Cale Iorg and Dusty Ryan as future lineup mainstays for a good team. The guys with tools (Iorg, Ramirez, Ryan) have severe strike zone/contact problems, while the more polished guys lack tools. One possible exception is Casper Wells, who no one is talking about but who performed well in an across-the-board way in 2008. He seems to do a lot of things well, but I’d like more data about him. Wells might pull a Matt Joyce on us.

I do like the collection of arms they have gathered, not just the big names from the 2008 draft, but also under-the-radar guys like Darrow, Fien, Marte, and Figaro. There should be plenty of parts for the bullpen soon, but they need someone to start games besides Porcello.

I expect I might actually get more flack some of the C+/C ratings than I will for the Grade A- for Porcello. I know the strikeout issue is important, but given his age I suspect that will resolve itself in time. I have gone back and forth on the grade several times, and I suppose it might change again before the book goes to press next week. As I see it, trying to grade Porcello involves threading a needle between excessive devotion to sabermetric orthodoxy (the K/IP problem) and buying into traditionalist groupthink. I’m doing my best to be purely logical about it, and my logic says (right now anyway) that given his age, experience level, and projectability, that he did just fine last year. I would be more worried if he hadn’t put up the strong GO/AO mark.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2009

2009-01-07T05:41:15Z

The Ultimate 1970s baseball card. Just need some shag carpet. . .

San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2009

1) Kyle Blanks, 1B, Grade B+: I don’t know where he fits except as trade bait, but I’m convinced that the bat is real. Considered Grade B, but that’s what I gave him last year and he improved in ’08.
2) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B: Need to see at higher levels, could be a cross between Brian Giles and Matt Stairs.
3) Mat Latos, RHP, Grade B: I believe in his ceiling, and while the intercostal injury is annoying, he pitched very well when on the mound.
4) Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Grade B: The Winner of the 2009 Josh Willingham Award, given to a guy who can really f**king hit, but who doesn’t get as much respect as he deserves due to lack of tools.
5) Cedric Hunter, OF, Grade B-: Improved slightly compared to ’07. Young, hits liners, Double-A will tell us a lot.
6) James Darnell, 3B-OF, Grade B-: Although drafted behind Allan Dykstra, his balance of tools and skills is likely more valuable in the long run.
7) Allan Dykstra, 1B, Grade B-: Will hit homers and draw walks, but where does he play?
8) Will Inman, RHP, Grade B-: Continues to defy the scouts. Needs to lower the walk rate but K/IP continues to stand out. Considering downgrade to C+.
9) Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Grade C+: Hammered in the majors, but will get more chances. Finesse lefty with thin margin of error.
10) Matt Antonelli, 2B, Grade C+: A very difficult grade and ranking. Despite horrible season, he continued to control the strike zone very well. Hard to know what to think here.
11) Eric Sogard, 2B, Grade C+: Excellent secondary skills. Needs to repeat this in Double-A.
12) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+: Very hard to know where to rank these DSL guys. Could rank as high as 9^th if you are going just for tools and youth. Could be much higher next year.
13) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade C+: Hard-throwing right-hander is a breakthrough candidate. Not sure why he doesn’t get more attention.
14) Cole Figueroa, 2B, Grade C+: Another relatively polished college bat. Would like larger sample size, potential to rank higher next year.
15) Adis Portillo, RHP, Grade C+: Pitching version of Galvez….very young, talented, but very far away.
16) Blake Tekotte, OF, Grade C+: Another guy with strong baseball skills but needs to repeat at higher levels.
17) Jeremy Hefner, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper from 2007 draft had a very fine year in A-ball, good components.
18) Josh Geer, RHP, Grade C+: Could be a nice strike-throwing fourth starter if his elbow holds up.
19) Logan Forsythe, 3B, Grade C+: Good glove, polished bat, lack of power could make him a Joe Randa type.
20) Will Venable, OF, Grade C: Looks like a fourth outfielder.

Others: Tyson Bagley, RHP; Anthony Bass, RHP; Greg Burke, RHP; Everth Cabrera, SS; Mitch Canham, C; Cesar Carrillo, RHP; Sawyer Carroll, OF; Erik Davis, RHP; Travis Denker, 2B: Ernesto Freire, RHP; Steve Garrison, LHP; Chad Huffman, OF; Drew Miller, RHP; Rob Musgrave, LHP; Ivan Nova, RHP; Wynn Pelzer, RHP; Cesar Ramos, LHP; Chad Reineke, RHP; Nick Schmidt, LHP; Evan Scribner, RHP; Michael Watt, LHP; Mark Worrell, RHP.

NOTE TO READERS:
These aren’t supposed to be detailed reports, folks, these are preliminary grades from the book and thumbnail blurbs. The book has more detail.

Another point: as stated numerous times, these grades are PRELIMINARY. That means they are not final. That means I am still thinking about them. That means I will go back and review every grade before the book goes to press, to make sure that no one gets screwed on a grade just because I’m in a bad mood or exhausted or something.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF
    I expected this system to be thin, but if you sit down and look at it, it is not as bad as people say. There is a definite lack of sure-fire stars, but there is considerable depth in C+ types.
    Of the Bs, Blanks looks like he can be a solid first baseman, and Decker’s bat could be very special indeed. Kulbacki, Darnell, Hunter, and Dykstra should all be contributors in one way or another, and all of them have a chance to be regulars. I remain highly intrigued with Latos, if only he can stay healthy. I like Inman more than the scouts do, and yes I have seen him in person. He’s got flaws and I might go down to C+, but there is just something about him that makes me think he will continue to surprise people. We will see if that remains true in the PCL.
     Antonelli is a huge enigma, and no I don’t know what to expect.
     The mass of Grade C+/C guys has a whole lot of players who could be useful role players, with a few high ceiling/high risk guys (Castro, Galvez, Portillo) mixed in.
     Overall this system needs more impact talent, especially on the pitching side, but it is not as bad as it’s reputation, and I kept finding guys that I didn’t want to leave out. As it stands I will probably have to cut some of the Cs.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

Florida Marlins Organization Discussion

2009-01-06T14:00:07Z

I'm now plugging away at the Padres and Tigers. Here is a discussion thread for the Florida Marlins, the last team on the list. The finish line is in sight!!

St. Louis Cardinals Top 20+ Prospects for 2009

2009-01-05T05:20:57Z

Tools galore. . .

St. Louis Cardinals Top 20 Prospects for 2009

1) Colby Rasmus, OF, Grade A-: I’m going to cut him some slack due to youth. Power, speed, walks, defense are all still here. Not going to hit for a great average right away.

2) Brett Wallace, 3B, Grade A-: Monster bat should be ready within a year. Glove at third should be adequate in the short run.

3) Chris Perez, RHP, Grade B+: Outstanding closer-quality stuff, just needs to throw strikes.

4) Daryl Jones, OF, Grade B: I buy into the improvement being real. Has always had the tools and skills improved rapidly this year. This is an aggressive grade but I’m comfortable with it.

5) Jess Todd, RHP, Grade B-: Strike-throwing inning-eater type if used as a starter, could be more dominant in shorter stretches if used in pen.

6) Jon Jay, OF, Grade B-: I like him more than a lot of people, but I think he can play center and put up solid numbers. Another aggressive grade, but both Jay and Jones have impressed me and I think both tend to be underrated..

7) Jason Motte, RHP, Grade C+: Gotta love the strikeouts, but questionable secondary stuff precludes higher grade. Should be fine short reliever.

8) Bryan Anderson, C, Grade C+: This ranking may surprise some, but I’m starting to wonder if we could be looking at a Sean Burroughs situation here, where the line drive bat just kind of stalls at an early age. Am I overreacting?

9) Mitchell Boggs, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm, still trying to put everything together, another guy who could be a decent starter or dominate more in the pen.

10) Jaime Garcia, LHP, Grade C+: Hard to rank due to Tommy John. A grade B+/B if healthy.

11) Pete Kozma, SS, Grade C+: I rather like him and I think he might end up being a better hitter than people think.

12) David Freese, 3B, Grade C+: An older prospect and plate discipline looks spotty, but he has power and a good glove at third.

13) Adam Reifer, RHP, Grade C+: Excellent stuff, dominated the New York-Penn League, need to see at higher levels. Could hit the Top 5 next year if all goes well.

14) Allen Craig, 3B, Grade C+: A personal favorite, could rank as high as 9 or 10 depending on criteria. I think he’ll hit, though glove isn’t the best and he’s got a lot of competition.

15) Lance Lynn, RHP, Grade C+: Polished college pitcher, could rank much higher once we see him against better hitters.

16) Niko Vasquez, SS, Grade C+: Good performance in pro debut, strikeouts and defense are questions. Has higher potential.

17) Clayton Mortensen, RHP, Grade C+: Gets grounders, could be an inning-eater, but strikes me as overrated by some other sources.

18) Francisco Samuel, RHP, Grade C+: Outstanding stuff, command is wobbly.

19) Fernando Salas, RHP, Grade C+: Throws strikes, great K/BB and K/IP marks, but gives up a lot of fly balls.

20) Richard Castillo, RHP, Grade C+: Very young pitcher with high sleeper potential.

21) Deryk Hooker, RHP, Grade C+: Another young sleeper, and a breakthrough candidate for 2009.

22) Roberto De La Cruz, 3B, Grade C+: Young Dominican with power, big bonus, and reportedly has good strike zone judgment.

23) Shane Peterson, OF, Grade C+: High OBP college guy with gap power, but not many homers.

24) P.J. Walters, RHP, Grade C+: Uses a nasty changeup to rack up large numbers of strikeouts.

Others: Nicholas Additon,LHP; Jermaine Curtis, 3B; Anthony Ferrara, LHP; Eric Fornataro, RHP; Scott Gorgen, RHP; Tyler Greene, SS; Luke Gregerson, RHP; Tyler Henley, OF; Tyler Herron, RHP; Steven Hill, 1B-C; David Kopp, RHP; Gerardo Mannbell, SS; Adam Ottavino, RHP; Shane Robinson, OF; Nick Stavinoha, OF.

NOTE TO READERS:

I’ve received criticism lately about these lists being “incomplete” and not detailed enough. These aren’t supposed to be in-depth reports, folks, these are preliminary grades from the book and thumbnail blurbs. That is what "full reports are in the book" means. I thought everyone understood that.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

The Cardinals system is rapidly improving. Rasmus, Wallace, and Perez all have strong impact potential, and the B/B- guys all look like useful role players at least and possibly regulars.

After that you have a gigantic mass of Grade C+ prospects that are difficult to rank. Some of these Grade C+ guys look like role players, but others could end up with much higher grades next year once we get more data. The Cardinals continue to focus on college guys in the draft, but are now popping an occasional high school ceiling player (Kozma, Vasquez, Hooker, Ferrara) in there to provide more balance..They are also focusing more on Latin America, putting down more money on tools bets like De La Cruz and Mannbell. This mixed approach should provide dividends and has already boosted depth.

Overall I think Cardinals fans should be optimistic about the way this system is going.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

Detroit Tigers Discussion Thread

2009-01-04T19:20:37Z

I'm falling behind here, still slogging away at the Cardinals. To keep you entertained, here is a discussion threat for the Detroit Tigers, the next team on the list after the Padres.

San Diego Padres Discussion

2009-01-03T15:00:08Z

I am now working on the Cardinals. Here is a discussion thread for the next team, the San Diego Padres.

Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2009

2009-01-02T23:59:03Z

The first Seattle Mariners card I ever owned

Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2009

1) Carlos Triunfel, INF, Grade B+: He has flaws, but holding your own in the Cal League at age 18 is special. High risk, high reward.

2) Greg Halman, OF, Grade B: Another high risk/high reward guy, awesome power/speed potential but huge problems with breaking balls. Could be a B+ but high risk of failure and 2.5 years older than Triunfel.

3) Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Grade B: Impressive arm and good numbers in the Midwest League, but too raw to get a B+.

4) Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade B: Another live arm who did well at the lower levels but needs additional refinement.

5) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade B: Doesn’t throw quite as hard as Aumont and Ramirez, but better command.

6) Michael Saunders, OF, Grade B-: Good tools, skills coming along, but high strikeout rate is concerning.

7) Adam Moore, C, Grade B-: Good pop, good arm, still polishing defense. Deserves more attention than he gets.

8) Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B, Grade B-: Another young high ceiling guy with strike zone problems.

9) Dennis Raben, OF, Grade B-: Love the power and patience, but other tools are mediocre, may strike out too much to hit for average.

10) Mario Martinez, 3B, Grade C+: Considering B- based on projection. Worried about low walk rate but very young.

11) Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C+: Power and patience, acquired from Mets, but track record is a bit erratic and scouts give mixed reports.

12) Mike Wilson, OF, Grade C+ Murders lefties, strong power, has some fielding ability too, strikes out a lot. Could be good platoon hitter.

13) Maikel Cleto, RHP, Grade C+: Power arm acquired from Mets. Great fastball, but rather raw.

14) Joshua Fields, RHP, Grade C+: I’m assuming he will sign. Stuff is here, but what about command?

15) Shawn Kelley, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect could help in bullpen sooner than expected.

16) Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B, Grade C: I think he can be a useful role player, but doubt he will hit enough to start.

17) Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C: Speedy guy acquired from Mets, probably a bench asset eventually.

18) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C: Projectable arm from 2008 draft, somewhat raw for a college pitcher.

19) Justin Thomas, LHP, Grade C: Seems to take well to bullpen use, could be fine utility pitcher.

20) Steven Hensley, RHP, Grade C: Another interesting college pitcher from 2008 draft, I think he could surprise if command sharpens up a bit more.

Others: Nathan Adcock, LHP; Denny Almonte, OF; Reegie Corona, INF; Tyson Gillies, OF; Gaby Hernandez, RHP; Donald Hume, LHP; Rob Johnson, C; Jose Lugo, LHP; Julio Morban, OF; Gabriel Noriega, SS; Efrain Nunez, OF; Carlos Peguero, OF; Andrew Pribanic, RHP.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

The big trade with the Mets provides a quick boost for his list, adding a bit of depth to a system that needs it.

This system has considerable high risk/high reward talent. Halman and Triunfel are the epitome of that on the position player side, and Saunders, Wilson, DeJesus, and Martinez all fit that category too. These guys could develop into stars, or nothing, or anything in between. The pitching has depth in live arms at the lower level, but most of them needing more development time. The Aumont/Ramirez/Pineda trio could be special….but remember the fates of other pitching prospect aggregations. The attrition rate of such arms is very high.

The Mariners have put a lot of money into Latin America and will keep doing so, but it will be interesting to see if the new regime modifies their draft philosophy.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

St. Louis Cardinals Prospect Discussion

2009-01-02T15:00:05Z

I'm now working on the Mariners. The next team on the list is the St. Louis Cardinals, so use this thread to discuss the system.

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2009

2009-01-02T00:32:54Z

Age relative to league isn't everything. . .

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2009

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A-: If things turn out the way they should, no one will remember the contract hassle with Boras. Has superstar hitting ability if he stays healthy and doesn’t lose the strike zone.

2) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Grade B+: Power has been a bit disappointing, and he still needs more polish on the bases, but defense is coming along and he’s improved his plate discipline. Still very young, you can still make an A- case.

3) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B+: I know people are starting to wonder about him, but he’s still extremely young, just one year out of high school in North American terms. If a 2007 high school draftee hit .348/.402/.562 in a 22-game late-season trial in Double-A, people would be salivating.

4) Bryan Morris, RHP, Grade B-: An aggressive grade from me, but I’m impressed by how well he did one year after TJ surgery.

5) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like he could be a nice fourth starter, but possibly more dominant if used in pen.

6) Neil Walker, 3B, Grade C+: Slippage in strike zone judgment is worrisome, but he’s still quite young and adapted well to third base. When Andy LaRoche gets hurt again, Walker could have a brief window of opportunity before Alvarez is ready.

7) Jimmy Barthmaier, RHP, Grade C+: Overlooked refugee from Astros system still flashes good potential and did well in Triple-A.

8) Evan Meek, RHP, Grade C+: Love the power sinker and he’s shown signs of improved control, although it didn’t show up in brief major league trial.

9) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: Very toolsy, could be a Seven Skill guy if he maintains the patience he showed in very brief rookie ball trial. High ceiling, could rank much higher a year from now.

10) Jim Negrych, 2B, Grade C+: I don’t completely buy into the Carolina League power spike, but he should continue to hit for average.

11) Shelby Ford, 2B, Grade C+: Scrappy second base type, does a lot of things right though his tools are just average.

12) Matt Hague, 3B, Grade C+: He always hit in college, and he’s hit great as a pro, too. Will probably move to the outfield. An overlooked sleeper.

13) Ron Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Added to 40-man roster, looks like power bullpen arm with control.

14) Brian Friday, SS, Grade C: I like the glove and the hustle, but am concerned about bad back and lack of power.

15) Quinton Miller, RHP, Grade C: Very high ceiling guy, hasn’t pitched yet but scouting reports are strong. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein likes him a lot, and Kevin has a good eye for guys like this.

16) Romulo Sanchez, RHP, Grade C: Less than 50 innings so he qualifies. Lively arm, could be good bullpen asset.

17) Donald Veal, LHP, Grade C: Rule 5 guy from Cubs. Change of scenery and move to relief may do him a lot of good.

18) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C: I’m afraid he might be the next Bryan Bullington, but it is too soon to give up. Needs another year past TJ to be sure.

19) Dan Moskos, LHP, Grade C: He pitched much better in the bullpen in August. Could make a really good LOOGY or maybe even a closer, but it is not his fault that the Pirates picked him instead of Wieters.

20) Jarek Cunningham, 3B, Grade C: Played very well in rookie ball, strong bat, his stock had dropped pre-draft due to injury.

Others: Brian Bixler, SS: Chase D’Arnaud, SS: Robinzon Diaz, C; Wes Freeman, OF; Jason Jaramillo, C; Brent Klinger, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Steve Lerud, C; Jordy Mercer, SS; Jamie Romak, 1B-OF; Jeff Sues, RHP; Tony Watson, LHP.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

The Pirates system is quite thin, but showing signs of improvement.

During the Dave Littlefield years, they avoid heavy investment in the draft and usually went with polished, cheap college guys, unfortunately without a lot of success. The killer was the choice of Moskos over Wieters in 2007. The new regime put a lot more money into the draft in ’08, going after guys with questionable signability but higher upside like Grossman, Freeman, Miller, and Cunningham. At the same time, they also mixed in college types like Mercer, D’arnaud, and Hague.

I like that approach. I think the best way to build a farm system is to mix both college players and high school players, guys with skills and guys with tools. Concentrating on one type of player to the exclusion of others is just asking for trouble. The Pirates went too far in the “polished” player direction under Littlefield, but I was concerned they might go too far in the “raw tools” direction under Huntington. If the ’08 class is any indication, they are trying to find a balance, which is good news. It will take time, but it will pay dividends.

In any event, the system as it stands now has three potential impact guys at the top, then a whole bunch of guys who could be good role players or are just too far away to tell yet.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

Seattle Mariners Prospect Discussion

2009-01-01T04:19:37Z

I'm now working on the Pirates. The next team up is the Seattle Mariners. Use this thread to discuss Mariners prospects, and Happy New Year everyone!

Los Angeles Angels Top 20 Prospects for 2009

2008-12-31T22:05:01Z

Los Angeles Angels Top 20 Prospects for 2009

1) Jordan Walden, RHP, Grade B+: I love the strikeout/ground ball combination.
2) Trevor Reckling, LHP, Grade B: A very promising and underrated lefty who deserves much more attention than he’s received.

3) Hank Conger, C, Grade B: I love the bat, though I would like to see more walks. Injuries and positional questions prevent a higher grade.

4) Nick Adenhart, RHP, Grade B-: I know it was the PCL, but at some point the numbers have to start matching the scouting reports.

5) Will Smith, LHP, Grade B-: Very interesting and projectable lefty with excellent command of solid stuff. Need to see at higher levels, but promising.

6) Peter Bourjos, OF, Grade C+: Tons of speed, toolsy, some pop, but lack of patience will be a big issue when he faces Double-A pitching.

7) Kevin Jepsen, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like a solid bullpen asset to me, but will need sharper command to close.

8) Mark Trumbo, 1B, Grade C+: Impressive power potential, but plate discipline and defense preclude higher grade.

9) Anthony Ortega, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like a solid arm as a possible 4/5 starter, though overall upside is limited.

10) Clay Fuller, OF, Grade C+: His season at Cedar Rapids is a lot better than it looks on the surface once context is considered. Good tools. Strikeouts a worry but at least he’ll take a walk.

11) Sean O’Sullivan, RHP, Grade C+: Stuff has leveled off, and Double-A transition may not be easy.

12) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Grade C+: Good arm, strong K/IP ratio in rookie ball, but too many walks. Good potential but will need time.

13) Manuarys Correa, RHP, Grade C+: Better command than Chatwood, but perhaps more hittable. Very projectable and could take step forward in ’09.

14) Alexander Torres, LHP, Grade C+: Overlooked lefty, solid strikeout/grounder combination in the California League.

15) Ryan Chaffee, RHP, Grade C+: Ankle injury prevented pro debut, but junior college product is supposed to have three strong pitches.

16) Luis Jimenez, 3B, Grade C+: Excellent power potential and big numbers in Pioneer League, but with doubtful strike zone judgment.

17) Michael Kohn, RHP, Grade C+: Strong arm, strong K/IP ratios, need to see at higher levels.

18) Ryan Mount, 2B, Grade C+: Good pop for a middle infielder, has problems staying healthy.

19) Jose Perez, RHP, Grade C+: Another projectable arm with good performance at lower levels.

20) Gabe Jacobo, 1B, Grade C+: Huge numbers in pro debut, but two walks in 125 at-bats at Cedar Rapids? Even for an Angels prospect that’s excessive.

Others: Terrel Alliman, OF-3B; Michael Anton, LHP; Jeff Boshers, LHP; Matt Brown, 3B: Angel Castillo, OF; Nick Farnsworth, 1B; Rolando Gomez, SS; Nick Green, RHP; Roberto Lopez, 1B; P.J. Phillips, SS; Andrew Romine, SS; Freddy Sandoval, INF; Chris Scholl, RHP; Matt Sweeney, 3B-1B; Mason Tobin, RHP.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

The Angels have some depth, but there is a wide range of opinion about a lot of their prospects. Mason Tobin, for example, gets just a Grade C from me, but ranked 10^th on the BA list. I respect his arm strength, but a shoulder problem and a horrible K/BB ratio scare me away from a higher grade. Adenhart also has issues, scouts still seem to like him, but the numbers are poor. I’ve seen him twice in the minors the last two years, and both times he was throwing just 87-90 with shaky command. At some point he has to perform. Walden (who I love), Reckling, and Conger all seem like better prospects to me right now, even if further away from the majors.

Among hitters, the Angels have a lot of guys with offensive potential but bad strike zone judgment. They have an organizational philosophy revolving around contact, and while I’m not as fundamentalist about walks as I used to be, the BB/K marks put up by guys like Bourjos, Jacobo, and Jimenez are not to my liking. I’m not saying everyone has to be a walk machine, but these guys are all way too dependent on their batting averages to provide OBP in my opinion.

I like the lefty arms Reckling and Smith a lot. There are some projectable guys beyond that. Smith in particular looks like a big sleeper for 2009.

Angel fans tend to be quite well-informed about prospects, and I expect some controversy about some of these grades, but I have to call it like I see it.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the

2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

Pittsburgh Pirates Prospect Discussion

2008-12-31T14:00:05Z

I am now hard at work on the Angels. The next team up is the Pirates. Discuss this system. Is it as bad as Houston?

Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects

2008-12-30T19:37:59Z

My favorite Houston Astro of all time was James Rodney Richard

Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects for 2009

1) Jason Castro, C, Grade B: Good glove, should provide some power, not sure if he’ll hit enough to be a genuine star or just a solid player.

2) Brian Bogusevic, OF, Grade B-: Good plate discipline, should hit for average, but lack of home run power may make him a fourth outfielder. However, you have to like the rapid adjustment he made, and the power may still come.

3) Bud Norris, RHP, Grade B-: Throws hard, but doesn’t change speeds well and seems better-suited to bullpen work than starting.

4) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B-: Very projectable young arm but will need time to develop.

5) Ross Seaton, RHP, Grade B-: Another very projectable young arm and a local kid. For some reason I’m optimistic about him and Lyles.

6) Felipe Paulino, RHP, Grade C+: If healthy, could rank B- and ahead of Lyles and Seaton. Great stuff, but role and condition of arm are uncertain.

7) Drew Sutton, 2B, Grade C+: I see him as a useful role player due to broad secondary skills.

8) Chris Johnson, 3B, Grade C+: Hasn’t hit outside the Texas League. I’ve seen both Sutton and Johnson play. Johnson has better tools but Sutton is far more polished and skillful.

9) Sam Gervacio, RHP, Grade C+: Decent stuff and weird delivery, should be good middle reliever.

10) Chia-Jen-Lo, RHP, Grade C+: Hard to grade. Scouting reports indicate a polished guy who could be a decent fourth/fifth starter or a good long reliever, but doesn’t have upside beyond that.

11) Collin DeLome, OF, Grade C: Good power, some speed, but bad strike zone judgment will hold him back.

12) Sergio Perez, RHP, Grade C: Injured in regular season, but did well in Arizona Fall League. Could be fourth/fifth starter but might dominate more in the pen.

13) Polin Trinidad, LHP, Grade C: Average stuff but can throw strikes, fifth starter type.

14) T.J. Steele, OF, Grade C: Good tools, power and speed, but very raw for a college guy, with major strike zone problems.

15) J.B. Shuck, OF, Grade C: Showed no power in college, but hit with authority in NY-P. Athletic, good plate discipline, more polished than Steele but not as much upside.

16) Jay Austin, OF, Grade C: Very toolsy high school kid, could not hit Appalachian League pitching but is young enough to improve.

17) Federico Hernandez, C, Grade C: Very good defensive catcher, bat may be questionable at higher levels but at least he makes some contact.

18) Leandro Cespedes, RHP, Grade C: Average stuff, but good K/BB and K/IP marks in the Sally League. Will this carry forward?

19) Phil Disher, 1B, Grade C: Monster numbers in the NY-P League, excellent power, but horrible glove and high strikeout rate limit his grade at this time.

20) Tim Torres, SS, Grade C: Older prospect, but has some skills and could be on the Drew Sutton sleeper path.

Others: Fernando Abad, LHP; Douglas Arguello, LHP; Koby Clemens, C; Luis Cruz, LHP; Gilbert De La Vara, LHP; David Duncan, LHP; Brad Dydalewicz, LHP; Mitch Einertson, OF; Chris Hicks, RHP; Eli Iorg, OF; Brad James, RHP; Tommy Manzella, SS.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

This is an extremely thin system right now, but the 2008 draft looks somewhat promising and they seem to be taking the need to rebuild more seriously. I think Castro is pretty solid, but I think there were other guys available in the draft who would make bigger impacts. It says a lot about the system that the number two hitter was a pitcher a year ago. Sutton looks like a good role player to me, but I’m not totally convinced about Chris Johnson yet. Johnson has better tools, but Sutton looks more likely to actually live up to his potential. 2008 outfield draftees Steele, Shuck, and Austin are all interesting, but for very different reasons.

Pitching-wise, there are no definite impact guys right now. Norris has a lively arm but I have doubts about him as a starter. Lyles and Seaton could both be excellent, but they carry the risks typical for projectable young pitchers and won’t advance quickly. After that you have a bunch of fifth starter/reliever types.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

Los Angeles Angels Prospect Discussion

2008-12-30T12:00:06Z

I'm working on the Astros now. Here is a thread for the next team, the Los Angeles Angels. Discuss this farm system and their prospects.

Cleveland Indians Top 20 Prospects for 2009

2008-12-29T20:08:47Z

Grade A Prospect, 1936

Cleveland Indians Top 20 Prospects for 2009

1) Carlos Santana, C, Grade B+: His future could look a lot like Victor Martinez’s past.

2) Matt LaPorta, 1B-OF, Grade B+: Plate discipline slippage after trade is a bit worrisome, but small sample and past track record keeps me confident at this point.

3) Adam Miller, RHP, Grade B: Grade A arm, Grade C health record. I think he will be better off in relief.

4) Beau Mills, 1B, Grade B: Another power bat with impressive home run upside. Not sure how they will fit all these guys into the lineup.

5) Hector Rondon, RHP, Grade B: Good arm, good stats, not sure why he isn’t ranked more highly by other sources.

6) Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Grade B-: Promising and projectable bat. Questions about home run power and probable move to third base preclude higher grade right now.

7) Nick Weglarz, OF, Grade B-: Excellent strike zone judgment, power should continue to grow. Bad defense an issue.

8) David Huff, LHP, Grade B-: Successful finesse lefty type, Jamie Moyer upside, but could struggle like Sowers.

9) Carlos Rivero, SS, Grade B-: I buy into the second half improvement. Want to see more home run power, and faces move to third base.

10) Scott Lewis, LHP, Grade C+: Similar to Huff, perhaps not quite as much stuff.

11) Michael Brantley, OF-1B, Grade C+: Love the combination of walks, speed, and very low strikeout rate. Lack of power precludes higher grade but he should be useful.

12) Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP, Grade C+: Projectable lefty made good progress in ’08, but command still worrisome.

13) Wes Hodges, 3B, Grade C+: A solid bat, but glove at third base has slipped and he may not hit enough for first.

14) Matt McBride, C-OF, Grade C+: Very interesting bat, good plate discipline with power potential, a sleeper for ’09.

15) Luis Valbuena, 2B, Grade C+: Solid middle infielder acquired from Mariners. Some pop and speed.

16) John Meloan, RHP, Grade C+: I think he fits better in the pen than in the rotation. Needs to sharpen command.

17) Zach Putnam, RHP, Grade C+: Personal favorite from the 2008 draft. Very good arm, a good hitter too, does he start or relieve?

18) Trevor Crowe, OF, Grade C+: Made some progress after poor 2007. Could be solid fourth outfielder.

19) Rob Bryson, RHP, Grade C+: Intriguing power arm acquired in Sabathia deal. A bit under the radar but I like him.

20) Chen-Chang Lee, RHP, Grade C+: Sidearm guy signed out of Taiwan has very good stuff.

21) Cord Phelps, 2B, Grade C+: Polished Stanford product, some pop in bat, needs to improve glove.

22) Bryce Stowell, RHP, Grade C+: 2008 draftee signed too late to play, but looked great in summer ball, could be sleeper for ’09.

Others: Abner Abreu, 3B; Eric Berger, LHP; John Drennen, OF; Tim Fedroff, OF; Chris Gimenez, C; Jared Goedert, 3B; Trey Haley, RHP; T.J. House, LHP; Chuck Lofgren, LHP; Carlos Moncrief, RHP; Josh Rodriguez, INF; Jeremie Tice, 3B; Josh Tomlin, RHP; Neil Wagner, RHP; Steven Wright, RHP.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

Trades have helped restore some depth to the top of the system. I love Santana and I think his breakthrough was for real. I’m not sure how they are going to jam LaPorta, Weglarz, Mills, and Hodges onto the same roster, since all of them will probably end up at first base eventually. Someone will end up as trade bait obviously. Chisenhall and Rivero are third base candidates more than shortstops in the long run but both have strong bats.

On the pitching side, you’ve got a couple of finesse lefties in Huff and Lewis ready for major league trials. Power arms Miller and Meloan can help in the pen. I prefer them as relievers due to Miller’s durability problems and Meloan’s command backslide in ’08. There are several other arms at the lower levels like Rondon and De La Cruz who have a ton of potential but will need more development time. I also like several of the 2008 pitching draftees. Putnam, Stowell, and Berger are nice college selections, but projectable high-upside high school arms like Haley and House are also interesting, if further away.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 22009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

Houston Astros Prospect Discussion

2008-12-29T18:00:07Z

Next on the list after the Indians is the Houston Astros. Use this thread to discuss their prospects.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects for 2009

2008-12-28T19:00:06Z

One in a long line of Mr. Albuquerques.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects for 2009

1) James McDonald, RHP, Grade B+: Same grade I gave him last year, see no reason to change it given his strong season. Only concern is fly ball tendency.

2) Ethan Martin, RHP, Grade B: Higher ceiling than McDonald but need to see how he adjusts to pro ball. Impressive power arm plus athleticism.

3) Ivan DeJesus, Jr, SS, Grade B: Took a step forward offensively, good glove, just needs to cut down on errors and get more consistent. I think his difficult Arizona Fall League was an aberration.

4) Andrew Lambo, OF, Grade B: Not sure about the glove, but the bat looks quite strong to me.

5) Josh Lindblom, RHP, Grade B-: Rapid riser from the college ranks, could help in the bullpen quickly.

6) Devaris Gordon, SS, Grade B-: I am giving him an aggressive grade. He’s raw, but immensely talented. I don’t think he is Preston Mattingly.

7) Ramon Troncoso, RHP, Grade C+: Love the ground ball/power combination. Hope he throws strikes. Hasn’t broken 50 innings yet so still eligible for the book.

8) Scott Elbert, LHP, Grade C+: This might be a notch too low, but command and durability issues are still there.

9) Austin Gallagher, 3B, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect. Needs to tighten strike zone, but I think more power will come.

10) Josh Bell, 3B, Grade C+: Making progress, but reports about weight are disturbing and he might not hit enough for first base.

11) Xavier Paul, OF, Grade C+: Should be a very solid fourth outfielder.

12) Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade C+: Need to make sure he is healthy. Ceiling is high but so is risk.

13) Justin Miller, RHP, Grade C+: Like the hard sinker, but needs to improve secondary pitches to boost K-rate.

14) Tony Delmonico, 2B, Grade C+: Polished college hitter, making transition from SS to 2B. Needs to reduce errors.

15) Pedro Baez, 3B, Grade C: Excellent power potential and a strong arm, but there is a 43.7% chance (to pull a number out of the air) that he is pitching four years from now. Horrible plate discipline.

16) Jaime Hoffman, OF, Grade C: Another guy like Paul who would make a good reserve OF.

17) Jesus Castillo, RHP, Grade C: Added to the 40-man. Good control, not a dominant type.

18) Kyle Russell, OF, Grade C: Enormous power potential, but strikeouts are scary.

19) Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Grade C: Possible steal from 2008 draft, high ceiling, needs experience.

20) Javy Guerra, RHP, Grade C: Good arm, fits better in the pen than he did as a starter.

Others: James Adkins, LHP; Geison Aguasviva, LHP; Danny Danielson, RHP; Victor Garate, LHP; Thomas Giles, OF; Steve Johnson, RHP; Paul Koss, RHP; Lucas May, C; Justin Orenduff, RHP; Jaime Pedroza, 2B-SS; Jordan Pratt, RHP; Jon Michael Redding, RHP (a sleeper), Travis Schlicting, RHP; Cole St. Clair, LHP; Josh Wall, RHP.

The Grade Cs are interchangeable. As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa. I can probably fit one more player in, so make a suggestion if you like.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

The Dodgers system has thinned out a lot, and actually looks a bit weak right now, though I trust Logan White and his people to recharge quickly.

Ethan Martin has the most impact ability, but given the attrition rate for young pitchers, I want to see how he adjusts to pro ball. McDonald’s ceiling is not as high, but I can’t in good conscience lower his grade from last year. I think he will be a solid pitcher as long as he doesn’t get traded to Colorado or Texas. I like DeJesus and it looks like Lambo can hit, though his glove doesn’t get good reviews and he might have to move to first base, reducing the value of his bat.

I’m giving Gordon an aggressive B-,which I guess may surprise some people used to more conservative ratings from me. There are quite a few arms here who have bullpen potential…Troncoso and Elbert close to the Show, plus several others further away.

Some of the Grade C guys at the lower levels have the potential to get higher grades once they prove themselves more fully, and this system could look much deeper a year from now.

Full reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now! You know you want to!

Cleveland Indians Prospect Discussion

2008-12-28T04:00:06Z

I am now working on the Dodgers for the book. The next team on the list is the Cleveland Indians, so use this thread to discuss Tribe prospects.