Minor League Ball - All Posts

Minor League Ball Gameday, May 21

2013-05-21T20:48:00Z

Good afternoon prospect watchers. Let's get right to it.

***Prospect of the Day tomorrow will be Tyler Lyons of the St. Louis Cardinals. Thursday will probably be Jarred Cosart of the Astros. With the Paul Goldschmidt Prospect Retrospective done today, I will be shifting back to 2013 MLB Draft work.

***Yesterday's Minor League Ball Gameday thread

***St. Louis Cardinals prospect Kolten Wong went 2-for-5 for Triple-A Memphis last night. He's been on a hot streak lately and is now hitting .317/.345/.472. Also note his 1.089 OPS against left-handed pitching.

***Colorado Rockies outfield prospect Kyle Parker went 2-for-4 with two runs a walk and a double for Double-A Tulsa. He's been decent but not excellent this spring with a .263/.317/.455 line through 42 games, showing power but not lighting it up yet in the BA/OBP departments. I expect he will heat up soon.

***Arizona Diamondbacks prospect Keon Broxton hit two homers for Double-A Mobile yesterday, though his season line is an ,176/.208/.373 through 15 games. He has two walks and 15 strikeouts in 51 at-bats, which fits his past reputation perfectly: he's a free swinger with substantial power but problems with pitch recognition and strike zone judgment.

***A similar talent is Seattle Mariners outfield prospect Jabari Blash, currently on a hot streak at High-A High Desert, 6-for-10 in his last three games. He's hitting .310/.366/.680 on the season with nine walks and 31 strikeouts in 100 at-bats. Like Broxton, Blash is a right-handed hitter with plenty of raw power but problems laying off breaking stuff. He's getting away with this in the Cal League, but higher levels will be more difficult.

***Good start last night from Phillies Double-A Reading prospect Seth Rosin: eight inning, three hits, two runs, eight strikeouts. On the season he has a 3.68 ERA with a 37/11 K/BB in 51 innings. Acquired from the Giants in the Hunter Pence deal last year, he's got a shot as a back-end starter or (more probably) a relief pitcher.

***There was some talk in the thread yesterday about why I've been starting the Gameday Discussion this year. Just to clarify, the whole point of the Gameday Discussion is community interaction and community involvement. Melotticus in particular has been doing sterling work with boxscore updates this year, and lots of other people have provided timely information and analysis.

The Gameday thread doesn't happen and it doesn't work without you guys. I took over the actual POSTING of the thread this year since making it an actual front-page POST, rather than a fanpost on the sidebar, dramatically increases the number of people who see the Gameday thread. But the emphasis is still on community involvement and discussion and that won't change.

***Today's minor league game slate.

***Allan Simpson at Perfect Game posted his Top 100 Prospects for the 2013 MLB Draft list today, with 400 more prospects upcoming the rest of the week. I think this is behind their subscriber wall.

***Our own Matt Garrioch now has his 2013 MLB Draft Book available.

2013 MLB Draft: Indiana State Lefty Sean Manaea Injured

2013-05-21T20:25:44Z

Multiple sources including ESPN's Keith Law are reporting that Indiana State University southpaw Sean Manaea was injured this afternoon and removed from today's game without throwing an official pitch. Although the initial word was that Manaea had tweaked the sore hip that bothered him earlier this spring, the Indiana State University Athletic Department reports that Manaea felt shoulder tightness while warming up. The Sycamores went on to defeat the Creighton Blue Jays by a 4-3 score in Missouri Valley Conference Tournament action.

The 6-3, 235-pound lefty is a potential early first-round pick in the upcoming 2013 MLB Draft. He shot to the top of the prospect charts following an outstanding performance in the 2012 Cape Cod League, but his stock slumped a little this spring. His statistical performance for the Sycamores has still been excellent. . . he has a 1.47 ERA in 73 innings with a 93/27 K/BB ratio. . .but his velocity and command have been inconsistent, and he's been hampered a bit by a sore hip.

At his best, he has a mid-to-upper-90s fastball and a promising slider and change-up, making him a rare three-pitch power lefty. Even with some mixed opinions this spring he was a lock for the upper half of the first round, but the shoulder issue may scramble that. We will monitor the situation closely.

Prospect Retrospective: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

2013-05-21T16:34:08Z

A reader recently asked me to do a Prospect Retrospective for Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. As you know, Goldschmidt is having an outstanding season so far in 2013, hitting .329/.408/.622 through 45 games, with 12 homers, 36 RBI, and a 174 wRC+. His WAR currently stands at 2.2, which ranks as fourth-overall in the National League. Goldy was something of a controversial prospect a couple of years ago, so let's take a look at his development path.

Goldschmidt was drafted in the eighth round in 2009 from Texas State University, where he holds the school record for career home runs. He was quite successful in college, hitting .352/.487/.685 as a junior with 18 homers and 54 walks against 29 strikeouts in 219 at-bats.His power was respected by scouts, but they worried about his 6-3, 245 pound body. Some felt he would strike out too much against pro pitching, plus right-handed hitting first baseman have to really impress scouts to rank highly on draft day. He signed for $95,000 as an eighth-round pick by Arizona.

He murdered pitching in the Pioneer League (.334/.408/.638), but skeptics pointed out that the Pioneer League is a great place to hit. Many college sluggers have performed well there but failed to repeat at higher levels. I noted his impressive performance in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, but went with a cautious Grade C pending some exposure to better pitching, having been burned by gaudy rookie ball numbers from college hitters before.

Moved up to the High-A California League in '10, he responded with a .314/.384/.606 mark, with 35 homers and 57 walks, for Visalia. However, doubters pointed out that he struck out 161 times in 525 at-bats, a very high ratio, and some scouts weren't convinced he could handle advanced pitching in a less-friendly environment. There were still some grumbles about his defense.

I raised his rating to a Grade B- in the 2011 book. I felt that the contact issue would likely harm his batting average and OBP against better pitching and that Double-A would seriously test him, but also wrote that "even as a low batting average with power guy, he should still have value."

Such fears were unnecessary. Goldschmidt had no problems adapting to Double-A, hitting .306/.435/.626 with 30 homers, 82 walks, and 92 strikeouts in 457 plate appearances over 103 games for Mobile in the Southern League in 2011. He still struck out quite a bit, but not as much, his whiff rate dropping to 20% compared to 27% in '10. His walk rate took a large spike upward, he maintained a good batting average, and scouting reports about his ability to handle breaking pitches as well as inside fastballs were positive.

Promoted to the majors for the stretch run, he hit .250/.333/.474 in 177 plate appearances with a 117 OPS+. In 2012 he took over as the full-time first baseman with a .286/.359/.490 line in 587 PA, with 43 doubles, 20 homers, 60 walks and 139 strikeouts. He even stole 18 bases in 21 attempts, and his defense has turned out to be better than expected.

Overall, through 238 major league games Goldschmidt has a .288/.364/.513 line. He currently leads the National League in SLG, OPS, and OPS+, and at age 25 he is just entering his peak seasons.

So what happened here?

It was never a matter of performance for Goldschmidt: he mashed in college and mashed in the low minors. His power and strength were never doubted. However, his strikeout rates were a caution flag from both a sabermetric and scouting perspective, and many hitters with similar profiles have failed to adapt at higher levels.

I don't think even the most optimistic observers saw Goldschmidt as a potential .280-.300 hitter; even people who liked him saw him more as a .250-.260 guy, albeit one who would produce power. That was my take on him, and even that proved to be an underestimate of his ability.

By all accounts, Goldschmidt has worked very hard to improve his defense and mobility through better conditioning. Although his height/weight data is the same as when he entered pro ball, he's in notably better physical condition compared to his college days. His baseball instincts are sound, and he's even turned into an efficient stealer (26 for 30 in his big league career) despite his size and lack of plus running speed.

What separated Goldschmidt was his ability to adapt and remedy his weaknesses, even as he faced better and better competition. Figuring out which players will do that and which won't involves the intersection of player tools/talent, baseball skills, and human/makeup factors. . .that's what scouting is all about. Goldschmidt is a good example of how much we still have to learn.

Prospect of the Day: Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers

2013-05-21T12:00:14Z

The Texas Rangers promoted infielder Jurickson Profar to the major league roster yesterday to replace the injured Ian Kinsler. Profar is one of the absolute best prospects in baseball right now and is the logical topic for today's Prospect of the Day.

Profar was well-known to scouts as an amateur, having starred for in amateur international play for Curacao. He was a very successful pitcher and many teams saw him as a top-notch mound prospect, but Profar preferred to hit and the Rangers loved his overall athleticism, seeing him as a classic shortstop with a strong bat. Signed for $1,550,000 in 2009, he made his pro debut with a .250/.323/.373 mark in 63 games in the Northwest League in '10. That might not sound great, but he was only 17 years old and scouts loved him.

Moved up to Low-A Hickory in 2011, Profar hit .286/.390/.493 (note the huge boost in SLG) with 37 doubles, 12 homers, 23 steals, and a sharp 65/63 BB/K ratio in 430 at-bats. Promoted to Double-A Frisco in 2012, he hit .281/.368./.452 with 14 homers, 16 steals, 66 walks, and 79 strikeouts in 480 at-bats. He got a cup-of-coffee in the majors, going 3-for-17 (.176) with a homer. He was hitting .278/.370/.438 with 21 walks and 24 strikeouts in 144 at-bats. This includes a .415 mark in his last 10 games.

Profar is a 6-0, 165 pound switch-hitter, born February 20, 1993. Despite his lack of classic size, he has good pop in his bat and should hit plenty of doubles, with more home runs coming as he matures. His running speed is above average but he's an instinctive stealer who should produce double-digits in that department as well. His plate discipline is sound and he does a good job making contact and drawing walks.

His range, hands, arm strength, and instincts all rate as strong; combine that with excellent instincts and he will be at least an above-average defender at shortstop. He would be outstanding at second base. Profar's makeup is considered off the charts, with an excellent work ethic, intelligence, confidence, and grace under pressure.

He may not have as huge home run power right now or be a .300+ hitter in the short run, but he's already a solid player. In the medium and long runs, Profar will contribute in every category, and at age 20 he is still six or seven years away from the classic age peak. He is the very definition of a Grade A prospect.

Minor League Ball Gameday, May 20

2013-05-20T21:53:00Z

Good afternoon prospect watchers. We dodged the worst weather here in Lawrence last night...just some rain and thunder and a little wind...but several spots in Oklahoma and southern Kansas took significant blows as you've probably heard.

On tap for this week:

***Paul Goldschmidt Prospect Retrospective tomorrow.

***Prospect of the Day tomorrow will be the just-promoted Jurickson Profar of the Texas Rangers (of course). On Wednesday it will be Tyler Lyons of the St. Louis Cardinals, who is projected to be promoted from Triple-A Memphis and make his first major league start. Thursday will probably be Jarred Cosart of the Houston Astros.

***Yesterday's Minor League Ball Gameday thread.

***There was some discussion in the comments yesterday about St. Louis Cardinals outfield prospect Mike O'Neill. I quoted a scout about O'Neill yesterday ("That guy breaks our methods. No real tools, no power or speed or arm, but he just keeps getting on base. I think he's an organization guy or a fringe reserve but I'd love to have him on my Triple-A team"). Just to clear up any confusion, the scout was not intending to insult O'Neill. He seemed pretty impressed with his feel for the game, and felt that O'Neill's success so far was testimony to his work ethic and excellent instincts helping him play way above his organic tools.

***Kevin Gausman gets all the press, but keep an eye on Baltimore Orioles prospect Josh Hader. He threw six strong innings for Low-A Delmarva yesterday and now has a 1.96 ERA in 36.2 innings with a 39/18 K/BB. He is a highly-projectable 6-3 lefty drafted in the 19th round from high school in Millersville, Maryland, last year. He's gained 5-7 MPH on his fastball since signing and flashes a slider and changeup.

***Toronto Blue Jays prospect Marcus Stroman threw five shutout innings in his 2013 debut for Double-A New Hampshire yesterday, fanning six. Missing 50 games due to a PED suspension has cost him some publicity time, but the stuff that made him a first-round pick last year is fully intact and he didn't have problems throwing strikes yesterday. We could see him in the majors later this year.

***I always pair Cincinnati Reds prospect Robert Stephenson and Tampa Bay Rays prospect Taylor Guerrieri in my mind, since both were hard-throwing right-handed high school pitchers drafted in 2011. Stephenson threw seven innings for Low-A Dayton yesterday, giving up four hits and three runs, fanning nine. He now has a 4.02 ERA in 47 innings, with a 60/13 K/BB with 42 hits: note the excellent K/IP ratio. Guerrieri threw six shutout innings for Low-A Bowling Green yesterday and now has a 1.64 ERA with a 28/7 K/BB in 33 innings. He's not whiffing as many guys at Stephenson but Guerrieri features an excellent 3.40 GO/AO.

***Today's slate of minor league games.

***Ryan Potter at Beyond the Boxscore looks at Burch Smith's fastball and worries that he won't have enough stamina to be a long-term starter.

***Grant Brisbee laments the demotion of Cincinnati Reds lefty Tony Cingrani.

Final Weekend College Baseball Recap, May 17-19

2013-05-20T20:48:20Z

Another fine, fun-filled regular season of college baseball is in the books as we anticipate an epic week ahead of us full of conference tournaments with teams punching tickets to the Big Dance in June. Some teams (Savannah State, Jackson State, Army, Cal State Fullerton, Columbia) already have. Here's the weekend highlights.

Team Highlights

- Best Team: #1 Vanderbilt - The Commodores won the series against Alabama and finish the season in commanding fashion with the best record (48-7) and no. 1 RPI in the country. They also set a new SEC record for conference wins (26-3). 2B Tony Kemp finished 4th in the nation with a .408 AVG.

- Hottest Team in the Land: #10 Louisville - Following an impressive sweep of #23 Pittsburgh over the weekend, the Cardinals (46-10, 20-4 Big East) have now won 16 games in a row and may have very well played themselves into the final national seed.

- Tourney Sleepers: #28 Mercer and #29 Campbell - These two squads seem like the obvious choices for underhyped mid majors who could make some noise in the tourney. Mercer (42-14, 20-7 A-Sun) and Campbell (46-9, 19-5 Big South) both finished in 1st and pass the eye test from a statistical standpoint.

- First Time For Everything Team of the Week: #22 Kansas State - After a series win over #21 Oklahoma, the Wildcats (39-16, 16-8 Big 12) clinched their first ever regular season Big 12 title. They also stand a good chance at earning their first ever hosting of a regional in the tournament.

- Best Northern Team: #15 Indiana - It's been a fantastic year for the Hoosiers (40-13, 17-7 Big Ten), who have won their first Big Ten regular season title since 1932! They took two of three from Ohio State over the weekend and will likely host a regional.

- Best in the West: #3 Oregon State - In the epic in state showdown with #6 Oregon over the weekend, the Beavers (43-9, 22-5 Pac-12) won the series, clinching the regular season Pac-12 title in the process. Andrew Moore was superb in Game 2.

- Best Pitching Staff: #13 Arkansas - Led by stud weekend starters Ryne Stanek, Barret Astin, and Randall Fant, their Team ERA (1.90) is best in the land. Take a look at their team stats. Not a single ERA above 3.25.

- Best Bomb Squad: Louisiana-Lafayette - I've highlighted several teams in contention for this honor throughout the year (Mercer, Samford, Georgia Tech) but at the conclusion of the regular season, the Ragin Cajuns lead the nation with 66 home runs as a team. OF Caleb Adams led the way with 13.

- Best in the ACC: #5 Virginia? - The Cavs (45-9, 22-8 ACC) just took two of three from almighty UNC but finished a game behind the Tar Heels. Sophomore OF Mike Papi, who is an intriguing name for the 2014 draft, had another big weekend, and finished the year leading the nation in OBP (.546) and 4th in the nation in AVG (.408).

Individual Highlights

- Pitcher of the Week: Shane Carle - RHP - Long Beach State - Carle, a draft eligible junior, was brilliant versus Hawaii, fanning 13 in a complete game shutout while lowering his ERA to 2.91. Alex Gonzalez (Oral Roberts) is a close second as he also fanned 13 (but over 8 shutout innings) against Northwestern State. Both Hawaii and Northwestern State are challenged at the sport of baseball so both these pitchers should be dominating them.

HM/ Alex Gonzalez - RHP - Oral Roberts, Cody Dickson - LHP - Sam Houston State, Ben Lively - RHP - Central Florida, Ryne Stanek - RHP - Arkansas, Scott Frazier - RHP - Pepperdine, Andrew Moore - RHP - Oregon State, Conner Kendrick - LHP - Auburn, D.J. Snelten - LHP - Minnesota

(Photo by: John Walker/ Fresno Bee)

- Hitter of the Week: Aaron Judge - OF - Fresno State - The 6'7" 250 pound behemoth finished the season on impressive note, perhaps pushing himself safely into the late first round. His lack of in-game power had been well documented as a question mark entering the season. The questions have been silenced as Judge dropped two more bombs this weekend and finished the year with 11 home runs to go with a great slash line: .373/.461/.663

HM/ Brian Ragira - 1B - Stanford, Daniel Palka - OF - Georgia Tech, L.J. Mazzilli - 2B - UConn, Andrew Knapp - C - California, Jared King - OF - Kansas State, Danny Collins - OF - Troy, Raph Rhymes - OF - LSU, Michael Conforto - OF - Oregon State

- Meltdown of the Week: Andrew Thurman - RHP - #25 UC Irvine - Thurman carried a no hit bid into the 7th inning versus Cal State Fullerton but things went downhill fast once fellow top draft prospect Michael Lorenzen broke up the bid with a single. The Titans proceeded to tag Thurman for 4 ER in the inning en route to a comeback win and eventual sweep of the Anteaters.

- K Artist of the Week: Carlos Rodon - RHP - # N.C. State - Rodon finished the season strong, putting a stamp on his nation leading strikeout total (137) with 15 strikeouts in 9 innings versus Duke. Why didn't he win Pitcher of the Week? He allowed 6 runs, 4 earned in the CG outing.

- Speed Demon of the Year: Ben McQuown - OF - #29 Campbell - A Hawaii native, I guess you could reach and call him the Shane Victorino (i.e. Flyin Hawaiin) of college players. He finished the season with a nation leading 49 stolen bases.

- Hitter of the Year: Kris Bryant - 3B - San Diego - The likely top 5 pick has essentially been the entire New Mexico offense funneled into one hitter. We can safely sharpie his name down for the Golden Spikes Award. It's no contest when you lead the nation by a landslide with 30 home runs while also leading the nation in walks (57), SLG (.876), OPS (1.372) and blank stares from opposing pitchers.

- SEC Ace Performer: Ryne Stanek - RHP - Arkansas - Stanek pitched (7.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 4 K) the Razorbacks to a crucial road win over Auburn and lowered his ERA versus SEC opponents to an absurd 0.97. I think he's resolidified himself as a surefire Top Ten pick but what do I know.

- Low Major Ace of the Week: Kyle McGowin - RHP - Savannah State - He's been stellar all season (12-1, 1.22 ERA) and on Sunday in the MEAC Championship game, pitched 10 shutout innings with 11 K's to send the Tigers to their first ever NCAA tournament. His 129 K's rank 2nd in the nation. I'm really intrigued to see how McGowin performs against the big boys.

- Draft Sleeper: Josh Uhen - RHP - Wisconsin-Milwaukee - It's been a good year for the Panthers who won the regular season title in the Horizon League. It could be even a better year for Uhen, a bullpen arm who has run his fastball up to 97, and could go rounds 3-5, according to Perfect Game.

- Inside the Park Home Run Alert: Raph Rhymes - LF - #2 LSU - Not often you hear about these so I thought I'd link the video. It's priceless. Rhymes had a big weekend for LSU and was named SEC player of the week. I also think Rhymes could surprise as a pro player. He reminds me of Daniel Nava of the Red Sox.

- Shameless Family Shoutout: Harry Slade - CF - Southeastern Louisiana - Just thought I'd mention how older bro's season went. He finished up his Senior year by leading the Lions and finishing 10th among all Southland conference hitters with a .323 AVG. He hit 1 home run, stole 13 bases, drew 22 walks, 32 strikeouts in 201 at bats.

The final regular season rankings via College Baseball Writers

Final Mid Major Rankings from College Baseball Daily

Regular Season Stat Leaderboard (Boyd's World)

It's been an honor, a blessing, and a priviledge to serve the minor league ball denizons with my amateur hack coverage of the college baseball world. Have a great week, everyone. Stay classy, not crassy.

Prospect of the Day: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

2013-05-20T17:30:10Z

Jake Odorizzi makes his first start for the Tampa Bay Rays today. He's been in the consciousness of the prospect world for several years, but he has little left to prove in the minor leagues and his time is now. What can we expect? Let's take a look with Odo as today's Minor League Ball Prospect of the Day.

Jake Odorizzi was drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the supplemental first round in 2008, from high school in Highland, Illinois. He was a multi-sport athletic star as a prep and was a prospect as a shortstop as well as a pitcher, testimony to his overall athleticism. The Brewers were cautious with him; he was a cold-weather guy and they wanted to build his workload up gradually, so he didn't pitch in a full-season league until 2010. He was sharp, posting a 3.43 ERA with a 135/40 K/BB in 121 innings for Wisconsin in the Midwest League that season.

Odorizzi was a key part of the December '10 trade that sent Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals to the Brewers. He got off to an excellent start in the Royals system, posting a 2.87 ERA with a 103/22 K/BB in 78 innings in High-A. A promotion to Double-A at mid-season 2011 brought mixed results (4.72 ERA, 54/22 K/BB in 69 innings), but he got off to a strong start on returning to that level in '12 (3.32 ERA, 47/10 K/BB in 38 innings) and remained very effective after moving up to Triple-A last May (11-3, 2.93 ERA with 88/40 K/BB in 107 innings for Omaha, very strong numbers for the Pacific Coast League).

He made his major league debut with the Royals last fall, then was involved in another massive trade this past winter, going from KC to Tampa Bay as part of the James Shields deal. He was 4-0, 3.83 with a 47/15 K/BB in 45 innings for Durham before today's promotion.

Odorizzi is a 6-2, 185 pound right-hander born March 27, 1990. He retains impressive athleticism and it may be his best overall physical trait: his combination of athleticism and a repeatable delivery helps him stay healthy, and so far he's been quite durable. Stuff-wise, he can get his fastball up to 95 MPH but usually works more in the 89-93 range and he gets more movement on the pitch when he doesn't try to overthrow. He also has a curveball, slider, and change-up.

Ian Malinowski broke Odorizzi's pitches down using PITCH f/x data from last fall and you can see the results here.. Malinowski admits that drawing conclusions based on seven innings of previous major league work is problematic, but concludes that, based on what we know now, Odorizzi doesn't have the repertoire of a front line starter.

I saw Odorizzi pitch in Double-A and Triple-A in '11 and '12 and I think Ian's conclusion is fair. The quality of Odorizzi's secondary stuff seems to vary from start to start. I've seen a very good change-up out of him, and a very good curve, although not always at the same time. He tends to work high in the strike zone and can be vulnerable to home runs when he makes a mistake with location. Overall, his stuff rates as average.

The fact that two teams have been willing to trade him is telling: they don't see him as a future ace. But on the other hand, the fact that two teams wanted him as key components in major trades is also a factor in his favor.

Odorizzi's ability to throw strikes and stay healthy is valuable. His makeup is considered very positive, and he has shown the ability to adapt and make changes when he reaches a new level of competition. I expect some ups-and-downs as he adjusts to the major leagues, but Odorizzi profiles well as a number four starter down the line.

Some people take "number four starter" as some sort of insult, but it isn't. A pitcher who can eat 180 innings with league-average performance is quite valuable. Don't expect Odorizzi to win Cy Young Awards, but he should have a successful career, assuming the standard caveats about avoiding injuries.

2013 MLB Draft: Players With Signability Questions

2013-05-20T16:55:03Z

Every year there are a few guys that have strong college commitments. Last year, I posted a list of 29 players that I thought could be tough signs. 19 ended up on campus. Alford signed but didn't give up football, so I was kind of right there as well. I don't have as good of a feel with some this year so I've expanded the list. Listed is the percentage that I expect them to be on campus next year.

College Players

Karsten Whitson, P, Florida 98%

After shoulder surgery, it is likely Whitson returns to Florida for another chance to show his talent.

Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford 5%

This is a little outside the box. Wilson was out much of the year with an injury. He didn't get the chance to show if he could hit for power as well as average. If he doesn't get picked in the top 20, he won't get $2 million or more and that could mean he rolls the dice again. Pure speculation, but the crop of college bats may be as bad or worse next season.

Mark Appel, P, Stanford 0%

Hear me out here. I DO think he will sign. The question is when and how. There is a question about how much leverage Appel has. I'd be scared to take him because he has too much leverage. Whatever team takes him will rely on him for their entire draft. He has no deadline to sign while everyone else that they take will, other than college seniors. That means you can't go over slot with any other picks, because you don't know where your budget is.

If he doesn't sign, you don't get that money in your budget and you are stuck. It wouldn't surprise me to see him not sign by the signing deadline of July 12th to make sure he gets the most he can. On the other hand, if the Astros draft him, offer him $1 million under slot and he signs in a week based on a handshake that he'll be in the majors next spring, that wouldn't surprise me either.

Prep Players with their commitment

Jordan Sheffield, P, Vanderbilt 98%

Sheffield had Tommy John surgery and isn't likely to command a high pick. With slotting, overplaying late isn't as strong of an option but could still happen. I expect to see him pitching for Vandy.

Chris Oakley, P, North Carolina 90%

Oakley has a load of potential but is a long ways off. I expect him to hone his game or fall off at N.C. similar to what por teams did with Taylore Cherry

Connor Jones, P, Virginia 80%

Virginia always gets good arms. Jones could be the next in a long line.

Alec Hansen, P, Oklahoma 80%

Hansen is a guy who I could see improving similar to fellow Colorado native Kevin Gausman in college. Oklahoma will have two spots in their weekend rotation open.

Christian Arroyo, SS, Florida 80%

Arroyo really screams college player to me. He doesn't flash big tools but is a solid player.

Kramer Robertson, SS, Louisiana State 70%

Robertson's family values education and he has a good shot at improving at LSU.

Ryder Jones, 3B, Stanford 70%

Commitments to Stanford are often hard to sign players away from. Jones seems the most likely to make it to Stanford this year. He could be a draft eligible sophomore as well.

Mark Ecker, P, Texas A&M 70%

Ecker really seems like an Aggie to me. More gut than anything.

Dominic Taccolini, P, Arkansas 70%

Taccolini could be a solid two way player at Arkansas. He could step in at the back of the pen immediately.

Kevin Trader, P, Chipola (Fla.) JC 65%

Could go to Chipola and dominate instead of playing in a cold weather area like Maryland. He would be eligbile again next season. He reminds me a bit of Marcus Stroman.

Sean Brady, P, Florida 65%

Florida always has a surplus of arms. Brady could join the next class. It all depends on how highly he gets drafted.

Chris Rivera, SS, Cal State Fullerton 60%

Rivera could be a Titan and improve his bat at the college level while showing his versatility around the diamond and maybe even on the mound. This seems likely to me.

Dominic Nunez, C, UCLA 60%

Nunez is the type of player who could solidify his tools in college and parlay that into a high draft pick in three years.

A.J. Puk, P, Florida 60%

Puk is a very interesting two way player and could be next in line in Florida behind Brian Johnson and Justin Shaffer.

Jack Klein, OF, Stanford 60%

Klein is another likely candidate to end up at Stanford. His age could allow him to be a draft eligible sophomore as well.

Stephen Gonsalves, P, San Diego 60%

Gonsalves hasn't shown his potential this year and could step in immediately and make an impact at San Diego. He will also be a draft eligible sophomore, I believe.

Gosuke Katoh, 2B, UCLA 60%

Katoh is also the kind of guy who could improve and solidify his tools in college and go higher in three eyars.

Zach Burdi, P, Iowa 60%

Burdi's brother gained a lot of velocity and improved his draft stock considerably. That may weigh into Zach's decision.

Kyle Serrano, P, Tennessee 50%

Serrano's Dad is the new coach at Tennessee and the SEC is growing all the time. It could be a good step for the elder Serrano's coaching career if his son came aboard and helped turn around Tennessee.

Dustin Driver, P, UCLA 50%

Driver doesn't have the front of the rotation stuff to be drafted in the top half of the first round but he could prove that he is a solid mid rotation starter and make that happen after three years at UCLA.

Joe Martarano, 3B, Boise State (FB) 50%

Martarano has a football scholarship to Boise State. That's the big thing. There isn't a baseball program there. He is the most likely player to sign but play both sports.

John Sternagel, 3B, Florida 50%

Sternagel can hit. The question is defense. He could prove he is a solid all around player in college and improve his stock as well.

Logan Shore, P, Florida 50%

Shore could attend Florida if he isn't drafted as highly as he expects to be.

Kevin Franklin, 3B, Arizona State 50%

Franklin could prove his defensive ability and put up big power numbers at ASU. There would be an opening for him immediately.

Nick Longhi, 1B, Louisiana State 50%

Longhi is the type of guy who could lead a team to a championship at the college level. He is that type of guy.

Cal Quantrill, P, Stanford 50%

This is tough. The kid is a genius. His Dad was a pro pitcher. He could go either way but I think someone could overdraft him and pay him because he is a special talent in many ways.

Riley Unroe, SS, Southern California 40%

Unroe is the kind of player that may not get drafted highly because he isn't all tooled up but could show his polish in college and improve his draft position, kinda like what Alex Bregman is doing this year.

Ryan Boldt, OF, Nebraska 40%

Boldt got hurt this spring and will play minimally, if at all, prior to the draft. That means a team will have to go out on a limb to take him in a signable area. That means he may end up at Nebraska.

Zack Collins, 1B, Miami 40%

Collins has been streaky last fall and this spring. He's a good hitter and may end up getting drafted well after where his potential deserves. Due to this, he may go to Miami to prove his value, though getting AB's there could be hard unless he continues to catch.

Cord Sandberg, OF, Mississippi State 30%

Sandberg is also a solid football prospect and has said he will need a few days after he gets drafred to decide if he is going to school or not. I think he prefers baseball but I could be wrong.

Cavan Biggio, 3B, Virginia 30%

Biggio is committed to Notre Dame and his brother plays there as well. We all know he doesn't need the signing bonus money.

Clinton Hollon, P, Kentucky 30%

Hollon has a few knocks against him but could prove the doubters wrong at Kentucky, who have done well developing pitchers. He could improve his stock there.

Robert Tyler, P, Georgia 30%

Another gut feeling but he seems like a Georgia pitcher. He is very young and could come out of college in better shape come draft day.

Will Crowe, P, South Carolina 30%

The Gamecocks don't mind thick builds on their pitchers. He could be an anchor of their staff for three years.

Connor Heady, SS, Kentucky 30%

Heady would be a solid bat up the middle and could replace JT Riddle if he signs and goes to pro ball.

Kohl Stewart, P, Texas A&M 2%

Stewart is a football commit to Texas A & M and is a very good quarterback but he should get drafted high enough for it to not be an issue. His future is on the mound.

Nick Ciuffo, C, South Carolina 2%

Ciuffo commited to South Carolina as a freshman so by default his commitment is strong. There is no reason it should come into play though, as he will be drafted highly.