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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Community Pitching Prospect #62

With 19.4% of the open vote and 56.7% in the 2-way runoff following the 4-way runoff, Jose Fernandez is elected Community Pitching Prospect #61.

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RESULTS:

Jose Fernandez: 19.4% (33.3% In 4-Way Runoff, 56.7% In 2-Way Runoff)

Tom Milone: 16.1% (33.3% In 4-Way Runoff, 43.3% In 2-Way Runoff)

John Hellweg: 16.1% (21.2% In 4-Way Runoff)

Trevor Rosenthal: 16.1% (12.1% In 4-Way Runoff)

Kyle Gibson: 9.7%

Tyler Thornburg: 9.7%

Liam Hendriks: 6.5%

Chris Archer: 3.2%

David Holmberg: 3.2% (write in)

Juan Oramas: 0%

Adonys Cardona: 0%

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CANDIDATES: Tom Milone, John Hellweg, Trevor Rosenthal, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Thornburg, Liam Hendriks, Enny Romero, Casey Crosby, Alex Meyer, Cody Bucknel

*

IN ROTATION: Anthony Ranaudo (#60-2.9%), David Holmberg (#60-2.9%), Alex Colome (#60-2.9%), Drew Smyly (#60-0%), Kyle McPherson (#60-0%), Chris Archer (#61-3.2%), Juan Oramas (#61-0%), Adonys Cardona (#61-0%)

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TESTERS: Joe Ross, Kelvin Herrera, Patrick Corbin, Trey McNutt, Andrew Chafin, Andrew Oliver, Lance Lynn, Chris Dwyer, Tyler Anderson, Eric Surkamp, Sammy Solis, Robbie Ross, Robert Stephenson, Garrett Gould, Eduardo Sanchez, Jordan Swagerty

Star-divide

#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%

#02 - JULIO TEHERAN - 57.3%

#03 - SHELBY MILLER - 66.7%

#04 - TREVOR BAUER - 40.0%

#05 - TYLER SKAGGS - 30.0%

#06 - GERRIT COLE - 24.3% (65.2% In Runoff)

#07 - JAMESON TAILLON - 26.0% (34.7 In 3-Way Runoff, 51.2% In 2-Way Runoff)

#08 - DYLAN BUNDY - 39.3%

#09 - DANNY HULTZEN - 45.6%

#10 - TAIJUAN WALKER - 31.6% (51.5% In Runoff)

#11 - DREW POMERANZ - 34.2%

#12 - JACOB TURNER - 45.7%

#13 - JARROD PARKER - 44.4%

#14 - JAMES PAXTON - 24.6% (51.6% In Runoff)

#15 - CARLOS MARTINEZ - 48.0%

#16 - RANDALL DELGADO - 28.6%

#17 - ARCHIE BRADLEY - 33.3%

#18 - MARTIN PEREZ - 32.3% (52.6% In Runoff)

#19 - ZACK WHEELER - 29.7% (67.9% In Runoff)

#20 - MATT HARVEY - 32.2% (55.4% In Runoff)

#21 - ROBBIE ERLIN - 37.1%

#22 - ARODYS VIZCAINO - 26.9% (58.5% In Runoff)

#23 - A.J. COLE - 32.2%

#24 - MANNY BANUELOS - 35.0%

#25 - BRAD PEACOCK - 22.4%

#26 - JAKE ODORIZZI - 28.3%

#27 - MIKE MONTGOMERY - 26.8%

#28 - NOAH SYNDERGAARD - 23.0% (50.9% In Runoff)

#29 - TREVOR MAY - 33.3%

#30 - TYRELL JENKINS - 25.0% (64.6% In Runoff)

#31 - ZACH LEE - 27.7% (58.7% In Runoff)

#32 - DREW HUTCHISON - 28.8%

#33 - KEYVIUS SAMPSON - 24.1%

#34 - CHAD BETTIS - 27.5% (52.1% In Runoff)

#35 - NESTOR MOLINA - 24.0%

#36 - WILY PERALTA - 20.9% (77.5% In Runoff)

#37 - DELLIN BETANCES - 23.5 (55.6% In Runoff)

#38 - SONNY GRAY - 19.6%

#39 - GARRETT RICHARDS - 18.9%

#40 - JUSTIN NICOLINO - 21.0% (51.0% in Runoff)

#41 - JOE WIELAND - 28.9%

#42 - TAYLOR JUNGMANN - 21.1%

#43 - JOSE CAMPOS - 26.4% (53.3% In Runoff)

#44 - LUIS HEREDIA - 26.0% (54.5% In Runoff)

#45 - DANIEL NORRIS - 22.0% (62.5% In Runoff)

#46 - CASEY KELLY - 38.3%

#47 - JARRED COSART - 31.0%

#48 - TAYLOR GUERRIERI - 25.0%

#49 - MATT BARNES - 25.0% (64.1% In Runoff)

#50 - JESSE BIDDLE - 34.1%

#51 - ADDISON REED - 35.6%

#52 - JED BRADLEY - 33.3%

#53 - JEURYS FAMILIA - 31.7%

#54 - NEIL RAMIREZ - 33.3%

#55 - NATHAN EOVALDI - 26.5% (53.3% In Runoff)

#56 - JOHN LAMB - 41.9%

#57 - DECK MCGUIRE - 27.2% (58.1% In Runoff)

#58 - ALEXANDER TORRES - 28.1%

#59 - ALLEN WEBSTER - 22.2% (55.9% In Runoff)

#60 - DANIEL CORCINO - 22.9% (66.7% In Runoff)

#61 - JOSE FERNANDEZ - 19.4% (56.7% In 2-Way Runoff Following 4-Way Runoff)

*

45 comments  | 

Community Positional Prospect #65

With 26.7% of the vote, Trevor Story is elected Positional Prospect #64.

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RESULTS:

Trevor Story: 26.7%

Charlie Blackmon: 13.3%

James Darnell: 13.3%

Joe Panik: 10.0%

Joe Benson: 6.7%

Brandon Jacobs: 6.7%

Zack Cozart: 3.3%

Andrew Susac: 3.3%

Bryce Brentz: 3.3%

Jacob Anderson: 3.3%

Blake Swihart: 3.3% (write in)

Grant Green: 3.3% (write in)

Tyler Pastornicky: 3.3% (write in)

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CANDIDATES: Charlie Blackmon, James Darnell, Joe Panik, Joe Benson, Brandon Jacobs, Taylor Lindsey, Jackie Bradley Jr., Tyler Pastornicky, Brian Goodwin, C.J. Cron

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IN ROTATION: Zack Cox (#63-3.4%), Marcell Ozuna (#63-0%), Blake Swihart (#63-0%), Zack Cosart (#64-3.3%), Andrew Susac (#64-3.3%), Bryce Brentz (#64-3.3%), Jacob Anderson (#64-3.3%)

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TESTERS: Ronald Torreyes, Austin Hedges, Derek Dietrich, Kaleb Cowart, Levi Michael, Jorge Alfaro, A.J. Pollock, Cesar Puello, Christian Villanueva, A.J. Jimenez, Hector Sanchez, Edward Salcedo, Dante Bichette, Brandon Drury, Roungned Odor, Wilmer Flores

Star-divide

#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 59.2%

#02 - MIKE TROUT - 38.8% (In Poll #1)

#03 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 52.9%

#04 - MANNY MACHADO - 31.5% (55.1% In Runoff)

#05 - DEVIN MESORACO - 45.1%

#06 - WILL MYERS - 31.6% (51.4% In Runoff)

#07 - JESUS MONTERO - 61.3%

#08 - ANTHONY RENDON - 53.1%

#09 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 46.6%

#10 - NOLAN ARENADO - 33.3%

#11 - MIGUEL SANO - 37.3%

#12 - YONDER ALONSO - 22.5% (45.3% In 3-Way Runoff)

#13 - FRANCISCO LINDOR - 26.1%

#14 - BUBBA STARLING - 33.8%

#15 - XANDER BOGAERTS - 25.0% (55.2% In 3-Way Runoff)

#16 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 27.8%

#17 - OSCAR TAVERAS - 40.3%

#18 - BRETT JACKSON - 20.3% (58.7% In Runoff)

#19 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 31.3%

#20 - JAKE MARISNICK - 27.3%

#21 - HAK-JU LEE - 28.0%

#22 - NICK FRANKLIN - 24.3%

#23 - CHESLOR CUTHBERT - 30.3%

#24 - CHRISTIAN YELICH - 27.1%

#25 - JONATHAN SINGLETON - 21.9% (53.8% In Runoff)

#26 - MIKE OLT - 21.5% (67.7% In Runoff)

#27 - ANTHONY GOSE -22.7% (70.5% In Runoff)

#28 - GEORGE SPRINGER - 23.6% (59.6% In Runoff)

#29 - JOSH BELL - 27.1%

#30 - MICHAEL CHOICE - 17.4% (63.2% In Runoff)

#31 - GARY SANCHEZ - 24.6%

#32 - RYAN LAVARNWAY - 24.7%

#33 - GARY BROWN - 26.7%

#34 - LEONYS MARTIN - 20.3% (63.0% In Runoff)

#35 - NICK CASTELLANOS - 24.6% (58.5% In Runoff)

#36 - WILIN ROSARIO - 20.0% (51.7% In Runoff)

#37 - STARLING MARTE - 30.6%

#38 - JEAN SEGURA - 18.5% (52.2% In Runoff)

#39 - RYMER LIRIANO - 29.5%

#40 - JONATHAN SCHOOP - 27.3%

#41 - JEDD GYORKO - 22.8% (62.5% In Runoff)

#42 - KOLTEN WONG - 36.4%

#43 - ANDRELTON SIMMONS - 32.3%

#44 - WILL MIDDLEBROOKS - 16.1% (57.1% In Runoff)

#45 - JAVIER BAEZ - 22.0% (55.3% In Runoff)

#46 - OSWALDO ARCIA - 23.5%

#47 - TIM WHEELER - 25.5%

#48 - EDDIE ROSARIO - 32.7%

#49 - BILLY HAMILTON - 17.9% (52.2% In Runoff)

#50 - DEREK NORRIS - 15.7% (51.2% In Runoff)

#51 - MATT DOMINGUEZ - 20.4%

#52 - VINCENT CATRICALA - 18.8% (47.8% In 3-Way Runoff)

#53 - CORY SPANGENBERG - 17.4% (66.7% In Runoff)

#54 - ROBBIE GROSSMAN - 23.9%

#55 - BRANDON NIMMO - 20.0% (53.8% In Runoff)

#56 - GARIN CECCHINI - 28.9%

#57 - MATT SZCZUR - 33.3%

#58 - MASON WILLIAMS - 36.4%

#59 - MIKIE MAHTOOK - 25.8%

#60 - AARON HICKS - 13.9% (51.5% In 2-Way Runoff Following 4-Way Runoff)

#61 - MATT ADAMS - 13.9% (48.5% In 2-Way Runoff Following 4-Way Runoff)

#62 - CHRISTIAN BETHANCOURT - 14.6% (57.1% In Runoff)

#63 - MATT DAVIDSON - 17.2% (51.6% In 2-Way Runoff Following 3-Way Runoff)

#64 - TREVOR STORY - 26.7%

*

46 comments  | 

Overall Community Prospect #93

With 54.8% of the vote, Taylor Jungmann is elected Overall Community Prospect #92.

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POSITIONAL PROSPECT MATT DOMINGUEZ vs PITCHING PROSPECT JOSE CAMPOS

Positional Prospects In The Queue: Vincent Catricala, Cory Spangenberg, Robbie Grossman

Pitching Prospects In The Queue: Luis Heredia, Daniel Norris, Casey Kelly

Star-divide

OVERALL COMMUNITY PROSPECT LIST:

#01 - BRYCE HARPER - 56.9%

#02 - MIKE TROUT - 60%

#03 - MATT MOORE - 96%

#04 - JURICKSON PROFAR - 51.9%

#05 - JULIO TEHERAN - 60.9%

#06 - SHELBY MILLER - 58.7%

#07 - MANNY MACHADO - 87.7%

#08 - DEVIN MESORACO - 69.4%

#09 - TREVOR BAUER - 55.3%

#10 - WILL MYERS - 73.8%

#11 - JESUS MONTERO - 73.7%

#12 - ANTHONY RENDON - 72.9%

#13 - TYLER SKAGGS - 54.3%

#14 - GERRIT COLE - 51.4%

#15 - TRAVIS D'ARNAUD - 60.9%

#16 - JAMESON TAILLON - 56.1%

#17 - DYLAN BUNDY - 65.0%

#18 - NOLAN ARENADO - 63.1%

#19 - DANNY HULTZEN - 81.1%

#20 - TAIJUAN WALKER - 62.7%

#21 - DREW POMERANZ - 67.9%

#22 - MIGUEL SANO - 62.5%

#23 - JACOB TURNER - 54.7%

#24 - JARROD PARKER - 60.4%

#25 - YONDER ALONSO - 68.4%

#26 - JAMES PAXTON - 61.4%

#27 - FRANCISCO LINDOR - 59.0%

#28 - CARLOS MARTINEZ - 50.8%

#29 - BUBBA STARLING - 65.2%

#30 - XANDER BOGAERTS - 50.8%

#31 - RANDALL DELGADO - 66.1%

#32 - ARCHIE BRADLEY - 53.8%

#33 - ANTHONY RIZZO - 60.0%

#34 - OSCAR TAVERAS - 58.7%

#35 - MARTIN PEREZ - 52.9%

#36 - ZACK WHEELER - 59.3%

#37 - BRETT JACKSON - 50.8%

#38 - YASMANI GRANDAL - 50.9%

#39 - MATT HARVEY - 54.5%

#40 - JAKE MARISNICK - 79.1%

#41 - HAK-JU LEE - 68.5%

#42 - NICK FRANKLIN - 59.3%

#43 - ROBBIE ERLIN - 57.1%

#44 - CHESLOR CUTHBERT - 57.1%

#45 - CHRISTIAN YELICH - 51.9%

#46 - ARODYS VIZCAINO - 53.6%

#47 - JONATHAN SINGLETON - 52.5%

#48 - A.J. COLE - 55.1%

#49 - MIKE OLT - 51.9%

#50 - ANTHONY GOSE - 59.3%

#51 - MANNY BANUELOS - 67.6%

#52 - GEORGE SPRINGER - 57.4%

#53 - BRAD PEACOCK - 53.8%

#54 - JAKE ODORIZZI - 66.0%

#55 - JOSH BELL - 63.0%

#56 - MICHAEL CHOICE - 63.0%

#57 - GARY SANCHEZ - 54.0%

#58 - MIKE MONTGOMERY - 50.8%

#59 - NOAH SYNDERGAARD - 51.6%

#60 - TREVOR MAY - 63.8%

#61 - RYAN LAVARNWAY - 58.8%

#62 - GARY BROWN - 64.4%

#63 - TYRELL JENKINS - 53.2%

#64 - LEONYS MARTIN - 65.8%

#65 - NICK CASTELLANOS - 60.7%

#66 - ZACH LEE - 71.2%

#67 - DREW HUTCHISON - 60.0%

#68 - WILIN ROSARIO - 61.7%

#69 - STARLING MARTE - 71.4%

#70 - JEAN SEGURA - 76.9%

#71 - RYMER LIRIANO - 76.9%

#72 - KEYVIUS SAMPSON - 53.5%

#73 - JONATHAN SCHOOP - 58.1%

#74 - JEDD GYORKO - 57.5%

#75 - KOLTEN WONG - 62.8%

#76 - CHAD BETTIS - 76.5%

#77 - ANDRELTON SIMMONS - 55.0%

#78 - WILL MIDDLEBROOKS - 52.2%

#79 - NESTOR MOLINA - 61.5%

#80 - JAVIER BAEZ - 66.7%

#81 - OSWALDO ARCIA - 52.8%

#82 - TIM WHEELER - 53.5%

#83 - EDDIE ROSARIO - 55.6%

#84 - WILY PERALTA - 65.0%

#85 - DELLIN BETANCES - 85.1%

#86 - SONNY GRAY - 75.0%

#87 - BILLY HAMILTON - 60.5%

#88 - GARRETT RICHARDS - 55.0%

#89 - DEREK NORRIS - 55.8%

#90 - JUSTIN NICOLINO - 85.7%

#91 - JOE WIELAND - 75.0%

#92 - TAYLOR JUNGMANN - 54.8%

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42 comments  | 

Budgeting for Latin American Prospects

World Future's All-Star Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates looks on from the dugout during the 2011 XM All-Star Futures Game at Chase Field on July 10, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. Marte signed for $85,000 in 2007.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

We are going to be seeing a lot more attention directed towards bonuses for young players signed out of Latin America.

Here is a theoretical question for you. If were a scouting director, and you had a budget of $2 million for Latin American free agents (I'm just making that number up), would you rather direct this money towards signing one big bonus guy, say $1.75 million to a high-profile player that everyone think will be a star, then using the remaining $275,000 to fill in roster gaps with cheaper guys, or would you rather spread the money out and get, say, 10 players at $200,000 each?

Don't worry about the difference between hitters and pitchers at this point; I will do a seperate post asking about that later. Also assume that all players are 16 years old. Prospects from Cuba and Mexico are excluded.

Poll
What is the best way to allocate a signing budget for Latin American prospects?

  496 votes | Results

33 comments  | 

New Cubs Draft Strategy/Player Development

The Cubs front office has been almost totally made over, with the notable exceptions of Oneri Fleita and Tim Wilken. There has been a lot of hype about how the new group of Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod will be doing things differently and building up the farm system, but how will they actually change the draft strategy for the Cubs?

I haven't been able to find many specifics on what types of players McLeod likes to target in the draft, but here are two pieces that highlight McLeod/Epstein's tenure in Boston:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/7027/mcleod-to-change-cubs-draft-philosophy

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2011/10/jason-mcleod-would-bring-sterling-scouting-record-to-the-cubs/:

I'm curious what the Minorleagueball community expects will change in Chicago on draft day, now that McLeod is there. What type of players will be targeted? Will we see more high school pitchers taken early? Will there continue to be a big emphasis on "up-the-middle" type players like under Hendry/Wilken, or will we see more corner OF/1B slugger types selected?

I'm just curious on what a McLeod/Epstein type player is vs. a Hendry/Wilken player. Thanks for any insight.

1 comment  | 

Stride Length, release point, and Drag

Two things I've noticed when scouting pitchers is stride length and drag are very important. Stride length is pretty obvious, but a thing a lot of people don't know about is drag. Drag is how much your foot has dragged from the rubber when you're throwing the ball. Look at a video of Greg Maddux pitching and you'll see his foot when he releases the ball has dragged a lot. If he does this, he's releasing the ball closer to the plate, what I've noticed is it can make up for a difference of maybe 3-5 MPH. Also, if a pitcher's release point is closer to the plate, he can gain a lot of velocity. I remember Trackman showed velocity adjusting for release point, and the numbers were much different. I remember when watching Joba Chamberlain pitch, his fastball velocity was overrated because he had almost no drag, so he was releasing the ball farther away from the plate, and his stride was short, so he was also releasing the ball farther from the plate that way too. From my experience as a pitcher, having a shorter stride length also means less control. It's harder to control when your stride is short. Watch Roy Halladay or Greg Maddux pitch, and you can see that these two things can result in a big change in velocity. When I've seen Manny Banuelos pitch, his stride is short and he has no drag. Someone like Brett Marshall has a very good drag and his stride is pretty long too. Though Banuelos throws a bit harder, I think Marshall is actually getting the ball to the plate quicker.

I've seen a lot of pitching prospect busts with a short stride length and no drag, and a release point not that close to the plate. I already mentioned Joba, but Homer Bailey is another one. I think a reason is that a pitcher's velocity can get overrated.

Has anyone else noticed important things in scouting like this?

8 comments  | 

Schedule and Suggestions

Upcoming stuff for next week:

*Smackdowns for Anthony Gose/Starling Marte and Cheslor Cuthbert/Miguel Sano
*Sleepers from the 2011 Draft (10th round or later)

Suggest some other things.

I am taking some family time this weekend. I will be around to make sure no one runs amok, but don't expect serious writing until Monday.

28 comments  | 

Community Pitching Prospect #61 RUNOFF

We are going to runoff 4 players: Jose Fernandez, Tom Milone, Trevor Rosenthal, and John Hellweg.

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Please reply with a +1 to your 1st choice. In the body of the reply, list your 2nd and 3rd choices. I will eliminate in the last place vote-getter (or 2 last vote-getters if they are far behind the top 2), and runoff players off until we have a winner. If it appears that the top 2 choices are fairly close with a solid gap to the next choice, 2 players will be added to the list. If only one player truly distinguishes himself, then only 1 player will be added to the list.

Star-divide

#01 - MATT MOORE - 91.0%

#02 - JULIO TEHERAN - 57.3%

#03 - SHELBY MILLER - 66.7%

#04 - TREVOR BAUER - 40.0%

#05 - TYLER SKAGGS - 30.0%

#06 - GERRIT COLE - 24.3% (65.2% In Runoff)

#07 - JAMESON TAILLON - 26.0% (34.7 In 3-Way Runoff, 51.2% In 2-Way Runoff)

#08 - DYLAN BUNDY - 39.3%

#09 - DANNY HULTZEN - 45.6%

#10 - TAIJUAN WALKER - 31.6% (51.5% In Runoff)

#11 - DREW POMERANZ - 34.2%

#12 - JACOB TURNER - 45.7%

#13 - JARROD PARKER - 44.4%

#14 - JAMES PAXTON - 24.6% (51.6% In Runoff)

#15 - CARLOS MARTINEZ - 48.0%

#16 - RANDALL DELGADO - 28.6%

#17 - ARCHIE BRADLEY - 33.3%

#18 - MARTIN PEREZ - 32.3% (52.6% In Runoff)

#19 - ZACK WHEELER - 29.7% (67.9% In Runoff)

#20 - MATT HARVEY - 32.2% (55.4% In Runoff)

#21 - ROBBIE ERLIN - 37.1%

#22 - ARODYS VIZCAINO - 26.9% (58.5% In Runoff)

#23 - A.J. COLE - 32.2%

#24 - MANNY BANUELOS - 35.0%

#25 - BRAD PEACOCK - 22.4%

#26 - JAKE ODORIZZI - 28.3%

#27 - MIKE MONTGOMERY - 26.8%

#28 - NOAH SYNDERGAARD - 23.0% (50.9% In Runoff)

#29 - TREVOR MAY - 33.3%

#30 - TYRELL JENKINS - 25.0% (64.6% In Runoff)

#31 - ZACH LEE - 27.7% (58.7% In Runoff)

#32 - DREW HUTCHISON - 28.8%

#33 - KEYVIUS SAMPSON - 24.1%

#34 - CHAD BETTIS - 27.5% (52.1% In Runoff)

#35 - NESTOR MOLINA - 24.0%

#36 - WILY PERALTA - 20.9% (77.5% In Runoff)

#37 - DELLIN BETANCES - 23.5 (55.6% In Runoff)

#38 - SONNY GRAY - 19.6%

#39 - GARRETT RICHARDS - 18.9%

#40 - JUSTIN NICOLINO - 21.0% (51.0% in Runoff)

#41 - JOE WIELAND - 28.9%

#42 - TAYLOR JUNGMANN - 21.1%

#43 - JOSE CAMPOS - 26.4% (53.3% In Runoff)

#44 - LUIS HEREDIA - 26.0% (54.5% In Runoff)

#45 - DANIEL NORRIS - 22.0% (62.5% In Runoff)

#46 - CASEY KELLY - 38.3%

#47 - JARRED COSART - 31.0%

#48 - TAYLOR GUERRIERI - 25.0%

#49 - MATT BARNES - 25.0% (64.1% In Runoff)

#50 - JESSE BIDDLE - 34.1%

#51 - ADDISON REED - 35.6%

#52 - JED BRADLEY - 33.3%

#53 - JEURYS FAMILIA - 31.7%

#54 - NEIL RAMIREZ - 33.3%

#55 - NATHAN EOVALDI - 26.5% (53.3% In Runoff)

#56 - JOHN LAMB - 41.9%

#57 - DECK MCGUIRE - 27.2% (58.1% In Runoff)

#58 - ALEXANDER TORRES - 28.1%

#59 - ALLEN WEBSTER - 22.2% (55.9% In Runoff)

#60 - DANIEL CORCINO - 22.9% (66.7% In Runoff)

*

46 comments  | 


Managers

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