Yu Darvish vs. Bryce Harper
I've been thinking more about Texas Rangers signing Yu Darvish today and was trying to figure out a new angle to approach this, to stimulate more community discussion.
I asked a poll question about Darvish yesterday, and so far 54% of you think that the Rangers did NOT spend too much money on him, that he'll be worth the $111 million in other words.
What I want to do today is take monetary considerations away and focus on Darvish's value to a team, solely in terms of wins or losses.
Not worrying about money, if you could have Yu Darvish or Washington Nationals prospect Bryce Harper for the next ten years, who would you pick? I'm not thinking in fantasy terms here, but rather real life baseball. Who would you rather have for the next decade? I realize that Harper might not be in the majors in 2012, so assume that Harper's "decade clock" for purposes of the question begins whenever he reaches the majors, even if that is 2013 or 2014.
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Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2012
Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects for 2012
THIS LIST WAS REVISED JANUARY 19, 2012
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine of course. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2012
Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects for 2012
THIS WAS UPDATED JANUARY 19, 2012
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine of course. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
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New York Yankees Top 20 Prospects for 2012
New York Yankees Top 20 Prospects for 2012
THIS LIST WAS UPDATED JANUARY 19, 2012
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine of course. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2012
Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2012
THIS LIST WAS UPDATED JANUARY 19, 2012
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine of course. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
Thinking about Yu Darvish
As everyone knows by now, the Texas Rangers signed Yu Darvish yesterday to a six-year, $60 million contract, plus a $51 million posting fee. Rob Neyer at Baseball Nation has a good rundown of how Darvish compares to other Japanese pitchers who have made the transition to the North America. I was starting to write a similar piece, but I saw what Rob wrote and I decided not to waste my time duplicating the same information.
Rob's conclusion:
"Yu Darvish has the performance, he has the pitches, and I think he might be the Rangers' staff ace this season. I certainly think he'll rank among Hideo Nomo, Hiroki Kuroda, and Daisuke Matsuzaka at their best. Which would make Darvish, if he doesn't get hurt, well worth the Rangers' $19 million-per-season investment. And unlike Matsuzaka before he joined the Red Sox, Darvish has never really been hurt."
I have to agree with that. I think the chances are quite high that Darvish will be as good as everyone expects, a genuine ace.
If I was going to give Darvish a prospect grade, he would be a Grade A. However, given his age and experience level in Japan, I really don't see Darvish as a typical "prospect." In my mind, this is more like a major league free agent signing, and certainly the Texas Rangers farm system does not deserve credit for "developing" Darvish.
Including the posting fee, the Rangers spent over $111 million to sign him. Do you think that's too much to pay, even for a guy who should be/could be a number one starter?
Rating the Farm Systems: Preliminary Steps
I've updated all the Top 20 lists, and you can find the menu with links to all of them over on the left side of the page. Teams with major changes I will repost and re-open the comment threads today and tomorrow.
The next step is to rank the farm systems. Some readers in the Fanpost section have taken the grades and, using a variety of different methodologies, come up with a ranking system. Each poster has used a slightly different approach.
Anyone who has done that or wants to do that, feel free to go ahead and continue. You can use the grades as they are currently listed. I have my own ranking system but I'm interested in seeing how the results compare to what you guys come up with. The main caveat: don't count Yu Darvish as a "prospect" for the Rangers. I'm still trying to figure out what to do about him.
Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects for 2012
Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects for 2012
THIS LIST WAS REVISED JANUARY 18, 2012
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine of course. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2012
Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2012
REVISED JANUARY 18, 2012
The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine of course. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!

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