Age relative to league isn't everything. . .

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A-: If things turn out the way they should, no one will remember the contract hassle with Boras. Has superstar hitting ability if he stays healthy and doesn’t lose the strike zone.

2) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Grade B+: Power has been a bit disappointing, and he still needs more polish on the bases, but defense is coming along and he’s improved his plate discipline. Still very young, you can still make an A- case.

3) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B+: I know people are starting to wonder about him, but he’s still extremely young, just one year out of high school in North American terms. If a 2007 high school draftee hit .348/.402/.562 in a 22-game late-season trial in Double-A, people would be salivating.

4) Bryan Morris, RHP, Grade B-: An aggressive grade from me, but I’m impressed by how well he did one year after TJ surgery.

5) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like he could be a nice fourth starter, but possibly more dominant if used in pen.

6) Neil Walker, 3B, Grade C+: Slippage in strike zone judgment is worrisome, but he’s still quite young and adapted well to third base. When Andy LaRoche gets hurt again, Walker could have a brief window of opportunity before Alvarez is ready.

7) Jimmy Barthmaier, RHP, Grade C+: Overlooked refugee from Astros system still flashes good potential and did well in Triple-A.

8) Evan Meek, RHP, Grade C+: Love the power sinker and he’s shown signs of improved control, although it didn’t show up in brief major league trial.

9) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: Very toolsy, could be a Seven Skill guy if he maintains the patience he showed in very brief rookie ball trial. High ceiling, could rank much higher a year from now.

10) Jim Negrych, 2B, Grade C+: I don’t completely buy into the Carolina League power spike, but he should continue to hit for average.

11) Shelby Ford, 2B, Grade C+: Scrappy second base type, does a lot of things right though his tools are just average.

12) Matt Hague, 3B, Grade C+: He always hit in college, and he’s hit great as a pro, too. Will probably move to the outfield. An overlooked sleeper.

13) Ron Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Added to 40-man roster, looks like power bullpen arm with control.

14) Brian Friday, SS, Grade C: I like the glove and the hustle, but am concerned about bad back and lack of power.

15) Quinton Miller, RHP, Grade C: Very high ceiling guy, hasn’t pitched yet but scouting reports are strong. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein likes him a lot, and Kevin has a good eye for guys like this.

16) Romulo Sanchez, RHP, Grade C: Less than 50 innings so he qualifies. Lively arm, could be good bullpen asset.

17) Donald Veal, LHP, Grade C: Rule 5 guy from Cubs. Change of scenery and move to relief may do him a lot of good.

18) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C: I’m afraid he might be the next Bryan Bullington, but it is too soon to give up. Needs another year past TJ to be sure.

19) Dan Moskos, LHP, Grade C: He pitched much better in the bullpen in August. Could make a really good LOOGY or maybe even a closer, but it is not his fault that the Pirates picked him instead of Wieters.

20) Jarek Cunningham, 3B, Grade C: Played very well in rookie ball, strong bat, his stock had dropped pre-draft due to injury.

Others: Brian Bixler, SS: Chase D’Arnaud, SS: Robinzon Diaz, C; Wes Freeman, OF; Jason Jaramillo, C; Brent Klinger, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Steve Lerud, C; Jordy Mercer, SS; Jamie Romak, 1B-OF; Jeff Sues, RHP; Tony Watson, LHP.

As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

    The Pirates system is quite thin, but showing signs of improvement.

     During the Dave Littlefield years, they avoid heavy investment in the draft and usually went with polished, cheap college guys, unfortunately without a lot of success. The killer was the choice of Moskos over Wieters in 2007. The new regime put a lot more money into the draft in ’08, going after guys with questionable signability but higher upside like Grossman, Freeman, Miller, and Cunningham. At the same time, they also mixed in college types like Mercer, D’arnaud, and Hague.

     I like that approach. I think the best way to build a farm system is to mix both college players and high school players, guys with skills and guys with tools. Concentrating on one type of player to the exclusion of others is just asking for trouble. The Pirates went too far in the “polished” player direction under Littlefield, but I was concerned they might go too far in the “raw tools” direction under Huntington. If the ’08 class is any indication, they are trying to find a balance, which is good news. It will take time, but it will pay dividends.

    In any event, the system as it stands now has three potential impact guys at the top, then a whole bunch of guys who could be good role players or are just too far away to tell yet.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

I'm now working on the Pirates. The next team up is the Seattle Mariners. Use this thread to discuss Mariners prospects, and Happy New Year everyone!

Los Angeles Angels Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) Jordan Walden, RHP, Grade B+: I love the strikeout/ground ball combination.
2) Trevor Reckling, LHP, Grade B: A very promising and underrated lefty who deserves much more attention than he’s received.

3) Hank Conger, C, Grade B: I love the bat, though I would like to see more walks. Injuries and positional questions prevent a higher grade.

4) Nick Adenhart, RHP, Grade B-: I know it was the PCL, but at some point the numbers have to start matching the scouting reports.

5) Will Smith, LHP, Grade B-: Very interesting and projectable lefty with excellent command of solid stuff. Need to see at higher levels, but promising.

6) Peter Bourjos, OF, Grade C+: Tons of speed, toolsy, some pop, but lack of patience will be a big issue when he faces Double-A pitching.

7) Kevin Jepsen, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like a solid bullpen asset to me, but will need sharper command to close.

8) Mark Trumbo, 1B, Grade C+: Impressive power potential, but plate discipline and defense preclude higher grade.

9) Anthony Ortega, RHP, Grade C+: Looks like a solid arm as a possible 4/5 starter, though overall upside is limited.

10) Clay Fuller, OF, Grade C+: His season at Cedar Rapids is a lot better than it looks on the surface once context is considered. Good tools. Strikeouts a worry but at least he’ll take a walk.

11) Sean O’Sullivan, RHP, Grade C+: Stuff has leveled off, and Double-A transition may not be easy.

12) Tyler Chatwood, RHP, Grade C+: Good arm, strong K/IP ratio in rookie ball, but too many walks. Good potential but will need time.

13) Manuarys Correa, RHP, Grade C+: Better command than Chatwood, but perhaps more hittable. Very projectable and could take step forward in ’09.

14) Alexander Torres, LHP, Grade C+: Overlooked lefty, solid strikeout/grounder combination in the California League.

15) Ryan Chaffee, RHP, Grade C+: Ankle injury prevented pro debut, but junior college product is supposed to have three strong pitches.

16) Luis Jimenez, 3B, Grade C+: Excellent power potential and big numbers in Pioneer League, but with doubtful strike zone judgment.

17) Michael Kohn, RHP, Grade C+: Strong arm, strong K/IP ratios, need to see at higher levels.

18) Ryan Mount, 2B, Grade C+: Good pop for a middle infielder, has problems staying healthy.

19) Jose Perez, RHP, Grade C+: Another projectable arm with good performance at lower levels.

20) Gabe Jacobo, 1B, Grade C+: Huge numbers in pro debut, but two walks in 125 at-bats at Cedar Rapids? Even for an Angels prospect that’s excessive.

Others: Terrel Alliman, OF-3B; Michael Anton, LHP; Jeff Boshers, LHP; Matt Brown, 3B: Angel Castillo, OF; Nick Farnsworth, 1B; Rolando Gomez, SS; Nick Green, RHP; Roberto Lopez, 1B; P.J. Phillips, SS; Andrew Romine, SS; Freddy Sandoval, INF; Chris Scholl, RHP; Matt Sweeney, 3B-1B; Mason Tobin, RHP.

As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

    The Angels have some depth, but there is a wide range of opinion about a lot of their prospects. Mason Tobin, for example, gets just a Grade C from me, but ranked 10^th on the BA list. I respect his arm strength, but a shoulder problem and a horrible K/BB ratio scare me away from a higher grade. Adenhart also has issues, scouts still seem to like him, but the numbers are poor. I’ve seen him twice in the minors the last two years, and both times he was throwing just 87-90 with shaky command. At some point he has to perform. Walden (who I love), Reckling, and Conger all seem like better prospects to me right now, even if further away from the majors.

    Among hitters, the Angels have a lot of guys with offensive potential but bad strike zone judgment. They have an organizational philosophy revolving around contact, and while I’m not as fundamentalist about walks as I used to be, the BB/K marks put up by guys like Bourjos, Jacobo, and Jimenez are not to my liking. I’m not saying everyone has to be a walk machine, but these guys are all way too dependent on their batting averages to provide OBP in my opinion.

    I like the lefty arms Reckling and Smith a lot. There are some projectable guys beyond that. Smith in particular looks like a big sleeper for 2009.

    Angel fans tend to be quite well-informed about prospects, and I expect some controversy about some of these grades, but I have to call it like I see it.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the  

2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

I am now hard at work on the Angels. The next team up is the Pirates. Discuss this system. Is it as bad as Houston?

My favorite Houston Astro of all time was James Rodney Richard

Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) Jason Castro, C, Grade B: Good glove, should provide some power, not sure if he’ll hit enough to be a genuine star or just a solid player.

2) Brian Bogusevic, OF, Grade B-: Good plate discipline, should hit for average, but lack of home run power may make him a fourth outfielder. However, you have to like the rapid adjustment he made, and the power may still come.

3) Bud Norris, RHP, Grade B-: Throws hard, but doesn’t change speeds well and seems better-suited to bullpen work than starting.

4) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B-: Very projectable young arm but will need time to develop.

5) Ross Seaton, RHP, Grade B-: Another very projectable young arm and a local kid. For some reason I’m optimistic about him and Lyles.

6) Felipe Paulino, RHP, Grade C+: If healthy, could rank B- and ahead of Lyles and Seaton. Great stuff, but role and condition of arm are uncertain.

7) Drew Sutton, 2B, Grade C+: I see him as a useful role player due to broad secondary skills.

8) Chris Johnson, 3B, Grade C+: Hasn’t hit outside the Texas League. I’ve seen both Sutton and Johnson play. Johnson has better tools but Sutton is far more polished and skillful.

9) Sam Gervacio, RHP, Grade C+: Decent stuff and weird delivery, should be good middle reliever.

10) Chia-Jen-Lo, RHP, Grade C+: Hard to grade. Scouting reports indicate a polished guy who could be a decent fourth/fifth starter or a good long reliever, but doesn’t have upside beyond that.

11) Collin DeLome, OF, Grade C: Good power, some speed, but bad strike zone judgment will hold him back.

12) Sergio Perez, RHP, Grade C: Injured in regular season, but did well in Arizona Fall League. Could be fourth/fifth starter but might dominate more in the pen.

13) Polin Trinidad, LHP, Grade C: Average stuff but can throw strikes, fifth starter type.

14) T.J. Steele, OF, Grade C: Good tools, power and speed, but very raw for a college guy, with major strike zone problems.

15) J.B. Shuck, OF, Grade C: Showed no power in college, but hit with authority in NY-P. Athletic, good plate discipline, more polished than Steele but not as much upside.

16) Jay Austin, OF, Grade C: Very toolsy high school kid, could not hit Appalachian League pitching but is young enough to improve.

17) Federico Hernandez, C, Grade C: Very good defensive catcher, bat may be questionable at higher levels but at least he makes some contact.

18) Leandro Cespedes, RHP, Grade C: Average stuff, but good K/BB and K/IP marks in the Sally League. Will this carry forward?

19) Phil Disher, 1B, Grade C: Monster numbers in the NY-P League, excellent power, but horrible glove and high strikeout rate limit his grade at this time.

20) Tim Torres, SS, Grade C: Older prospect, but has some skills and could be on the Drew Sutton sleeper path.

Others: Fernando Abad, LHP; Douglas Arguello, LHP; Koby Clemens, C; Luis Cruz, LHP; Gilbert De La Vara, LHP; David Duncan, LHP; Brad Dydalewicz, LHP; Mitch Einertson, OF; Chris Hicks, RHP; Eli Iorg, OF; Brad James, RHP; Tommy Manzella, SS.

As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

   This is an extremely thin system right now, but the 2008 draft looks somewhat promising and they seem to be taking the need to rebuild more seriously. I think Castro is pretty solid, but I think there were other guys available in the draft who would make bigger impacts. It says a lot about the system that the number two hitter was a pitcher a year ago. Sutton looks like a good role player to me, but I’m not totally convinced about Chris Johnson yet. Johnson has better tools, but Sutton looks more likely to actually live up to his potential. 2008 outfield draftees Steele, Shuck, and Austin are all interesting, but for very different reasons.

    Pitching-wise, there are no definite impact guys right now. Norris has a lively arm but I have doubts about him as a starter. Lyles and Seaton could both be excellent, but they carry the risks typical for projectable young pitchers and won’t advance quickly. After that you have a bunch of fifth starter/reliever types.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

I'm working on the Astros now. Here is a thread for the next team, the Los Angeles Angels. Discuss this farm system and their prospects.

 
Grade A Prospect, 1936

Cleveland Indians Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) Carlos Santana, C, Grade B+: His future could look a lot like Victor Martinez’s past.

2) Matt LaPorta, 1B-OF, Grade B+: Plate discipline slippage after trade is a bit worrisome, but small sample and past track record keeps me confident at this point.

3) Adam Miller, RHP, Grade B: Grade A arm, Grade C health record. I think he will be better off in relief.

4) Beau Mills, 1B, Grade B: Another power bat with impressive home run upside. Not sure how they will fit all these guys into the lineup.

5) Hector Rondon, RHP, Grade B: Good arm, good stats, not sure why he isn’t ranked more highly by other sources.

6) Lonnie Chisenhall, SS, Grade B-: Promising and projectable bat. Questions about home run power and probable move to third base preclude higher grade right now.

7) Nick Weglarz, OF, Grade B-: Excellent strike zone judgment, power should continue to grow. Bad defense an issue.

8) David Huff, LHP, Grade B-: Successful finesse lefty type, Jamie Moyer upside, but could struggle like Sowers.

9) Carlos Rivero, SS, Grade B-: I buy into the second half improvement. Want to see more home run power, and faces move to third base.

10) Scott Lewis, LHP, Grade C+: Similar to Huff, perhaps not quite as much stuff.

11) Michael Brantley, OF-1B, Grade C+: Love the combination of walks, speed, and very low strikeout rate. Lack of power precludes higher grade but he should be useful.

12) Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP, Grade C+: Projectable lefty made good progress in ’08, but command still worrisome.

13) Wes Hodges, 3B, Grade C+: A solid bat, but glove at third base has slipped and he may not hit enough for first.

14) Matt McBride, C-OF, Grade C+: Very interesting bat, good plate discipline with power potential, a sleeper for ’09.

15) Luis Valbuena, 2B, Grade C+: Solid middle infielder acquired from Mariners. Some pop and speed.

16) John Meloan, RHP, Grade C+: I think he fits better in the pen than in the rotation. Needs to sharpen command.

17) Zach Putnam, RHP, Grade C+: Personal favorite from the 2008 draft. Very good arm, a good hitter too, does he start or relieve?

18) Trevor Crowe, OF, Grade C+: Made some progress after poor 2007. Could be solid fourth outfielder.

19) Rob Bryson, RHP, Grade C+: Intriguing power arm acquired in Sabathia deal. A bit under the radar but I like him.

20) Chen-Chang Lee, RHP, Grade C+: Sidearm guy signed out of Taiwan has very good stuff.

21) Cord Phelps, 2B, Grade C+: Polished Stanford product, some pop in bat, needs to improve glove.

22) Bryce Stowell, RHP, Grade C+: 2008 draftee signed too late to play, but looked great in summer ball, could be sleeper for ’09.

Others: Abner Abreu, 3B; Eric Berger, LHP; John Drennen, OF; Tim Fedroff, OF; Chris Gimenez, C; Jared Goedert, 3B; Trey Haley, RHP; T.J. House, LHP; Chuck Lofgren, LHP; Carlos Moncrief, RHP; Josh Rodriguez, INF; Jeremie Tice, 3B; Josh Tomlin, RHP; Neil Wagner, RHP; Steven Wright, RHP.

As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

    Trades have helped restore some depth to the top of the system. I love Santana and I think his breakthrough was for real. I’m not sure how they are going to jam LaPorta, Weglarz, Mills, and Hodges onto the same roster, since all of them will probably end up at first base eventually. Someone will end up as trade bait obviously. Chisenhall and Rivero are third base candidates more than shortstops in the long run but both have strong bats.

    On the pitching side, you’ve got a couple of finesse lefties in Huff and Lewis ready for major league trials. Power arms Miller and Meloan can help in the pen. I prefer them as relievers due to Miller’s durability problems and Meloan’s command backslide in ’08. There are several other arms at the lower levels like Rondon and De La Cruz who have a ton of potential but will need more development time. I also like several of the 2008 pitching draftees. Putnam, Stowell, and Berger are nice college selections, but projectable high-upside high school arms like Haley and House are also interesting, if further away.

Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 22009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!

Next on the list after the Indians is the Houston Astros. Use this thread to discuss their prospects.

 
One in a long line of Mr. Albuquerques.

Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) James McDonald, RHP, Grade B+: Same grade I gave him last year, see no reason to change it given his strong season. Only concern is fly ball tendency.

2) Ethan Martin, RHP, Grade B: Higher ceiling than McDonald but need to see how he adjusts to pro ball. Impressive power arm plus athleticism.

3) Ivan DeJesus, Jr, SS, Grade B: Took a step forward offensively, good glove, just needs to cut down on errors and get more consistent. I think his difficult Arizona Fall League was an aberration.

4) Andrew Lambo, OF, Grade B: Not sure about the glove, but the bat looks quite strong to me.

5) Josh Lindblom, RHP, Grade B-: Rapid riser from the college ranks, could help in the bullpen quickly.

6) Devaris Gordon, SS, Grade B-: I am giving him an aggressive grade. He’s raw, but immensely talented. I don’t think he is Preston Mattingly.

7) Ramon Troncoso, RHP, Grade C+: Love the ground ball/power combination. Hope he throws strikes. Hasn’t broken 50 innings yet so still eligible for the book.

8) Scott Elbert, LHP, Grade C+: This might be a notch too low, but command and durability issues are still there.

9) Austin Gallagher, 3B, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect. Needs to tighten strike zone, but I think more power will come.

10) Josh Bell, 3B, Grade C+: Making progress, but reports about weight are disturbing and he might not hit enough for first base.

11) Xavier Paul, OF, Grade C+: Should be a very solid fourth outfielder.

12) Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade C+: Need to make sure he is healthy. Ceiling is high but so is risk.

13) Justin Miller, RHP, Grade C+: Like the hard sinker, but needs to improve secondary pitches to boost K-rate.

14) Tony Delmonico, 2B, Grade C+: Polished college hitter, making transition from SS to 2B. Needs to reduce errors.

15) Pedro Baez, 3B, Grade C: Excellent power potential and a strong arm, but there is a 43.7% chance (to pull a number out of the air) that he is pitching four years from now. Horrible plate discipline.

16) Jaime Hoffman, OF, Grade C: Another guy like Paul who would make a good reserve OF.

17) Jesus Castillo, RHP, Grade C: Added to the 40-man. Good control, not a dominant type.

18) Kyle Russell, OF, Grade C: Enormous power potential, but strikeouts are scary.

19) Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Grade C: Possible steal from 2008 draft, high ceiling, needs experience.

20) Javy Guerra, RHP, Grade C: Good arm, fits better in the pen than he did as a starter.

Others: James Adkins, LHP; Geison Aguasviva, LHP; Danny Danielson, RHP; Victor Garate, LHP; Thomas Giles, OF; Steve Johnson, RHP; Paul Koss, RHP; Lucas May, C; Justin Orenduff, RHP; Jaime Pedroza, 2B-SS; Jordan Pratt, RHP; Jon Michael Redding, RHP (a sleeper), Travis Schlicting, RHP; Cole St. Clair, LHP; Josh Wall, RHP.

The Grade Cs are interchangeable. As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa. I can probably fit one more player in, so make a suggestion if you like.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF

    The Dodgers system has thinned out a lot, and actually looks a bit weak right now, though I trust Logan White and his people to recharge quickly.

     Ethan Martin has the most impact ability, but given the attrition rate for young pitchers, I want to see how he adjusts to pro ball. McDonald’s ceiling is not as high, but I can’t in good conscience lower his grade from last year. I think he will be a solid pitcher as long as he doesn’t get traded to Colorado or Texas. I like DeJesus and it looks like Lambo can hit, though his glove doesn’t get good reviews and he might have to move to first base, reducing the value of his bat.

    I’m giving Gordon an aggressive B-,which I guess may surprise some people used to more conservative ratings from me. There are quite a few arms here who have bullpen potential…Troncoso and Elbert close to the Show, plus several others further away.

    Some of the Grade C guys at the lower levels have the potential to get higher grades once they prove themselves more fully, and this system could look much deeper a year from now.

Full reports on these guys and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31^st shipping now!  You know you want to!  

I am now working on the Dodgers for the book. The next team on the list is the Cleveland Indians, so use this thread to discuss Tribe prospects.