Sleeper Alert Review, Part Three

  Continuing our look at sleepers from the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book, here is the next 10 with 11 more to come on Saturday.

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So LSU wins the College World Series, defeating the Texas Longhorns 11-4 Wednesday. I haven't watched the game yet but have the DVR recording ready to go.

Here are some fun, unsubstantiated predictions/guesses about Tiger and Longhorn players with pro futures:

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Sleeper Alert Review, Part Two

   Continuing with the Sleeper Alert prospect reviews, here are nine more, now covering 23 of the 44. I don't think I was consciously aware of this at the time, but it looks like I noticed a lot more pitching sleepers than hitting sleepers this year.

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Sleeper Alert Review, Part One

   In the Baseball Prospect Book each year I put Sleeper Alert tags on players who look like possible "come out of nowhere" prospects, guys who haven't received a lot of mainstream attention yet but who could shortly do so. There were 44 such players in the 2009 book, which sounds like a lot until you remember that the book had 1,117 players in it.

    I want to review these 44 players and take a look at how they are currently doing. Here are the first 14, alphabetically.

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Morning Notes

**I wasn't really happy with the College World Series Live Blogging experiment yesterday. I struggled to find interesting things to say beyond vague generalities. Part of this may have been exhaustion....I had two hours of sleep the night before. . .part of it could be unfamiliarity with the format, having never done that before. Or perhaps I'm just not very good at Live Blogging. I'll try it again another time, perhaps during the Futures Game.

**Jared Mitchell has come an awful long way in a year. I like the way he works the count, and his willingness to take stuff to the opposite field. I'm not sure his home run power is ever going to develop as much as people hope, but he's got lots of pop to the gaps, controls the strike zone well, and of course has the blazing speed. He needs to sharpen up his outfield routes, but the athleticism and intelligence to do so are obviously there. I'm increasingly happy that I picked him in the Shadow Draft.

**We are going to start looking at players who got a "Sleeper Alert" moniker in the 2009 book, to see how they are doing. Look for that this afternoon.

**I'll be on BlogTalkRadio with Rotowire's Jeff Erickson starting at 11:00 am Central. 

10:20: LSU wins, and i'm about to collapse. Talk to you tomorrow. . .I got the final score wrong, but I did predict a LeMaheieu homer.

10:13: LSU takes the lead....go Tigers.

9:51: Workman has a hell of a breaking ball. And that 97 MPH fastball ain't shabby either.

9:43: This is certainly an excellent game, but I'm struggling to find interesting things to say about it. I've never "live blogged" a game before, so I guess it takes practice like anything else. Brandon Workman now in for Texas. Some effort in his delivery but not as bad as Jungmann, and with better stuff.

9:15: This is why I love baseball. I just wish I'd had more than 2 hours of sleep last night.

9:04: Oh, I hate the shoulder action of Taylor Jungmann, new Texas pitcher...he had great numbers this year and has good stuff, but something about his delivery really makes me cringe.

8:34: Like this Chad Jones guy. Very live and fresh arm.

8:27: Glad I posted that just in time, lol. I will say that it is to Coleman's credit that he's out there, he's "tough mentally."

8:26: I think it is a mistake to have Coleman start the inning.

8:21: I need to type faster. I was writing about LeMaheiu, saying "it sure looks like he SHOULD hit for some power, how did this guy hit just 4 homers?" given his size and frame.

8:12: If you are LSU, do you send Coleman back out there for the 7th?

8:01: I thought Brandon Belt would hit two homers for Texas....instead it has been Russ Moldenhauer. At least he hits left-handed.

7:53: Jared Mitchell produces against super-LOOGY Austin Wood. Wow, he can motor...I'm not sure how much home run power Mitchell is going to develop, but he has made huge progress this year refining his game.

7:48: Totally agree with the decision to remove Ruffin.

7:47: Ruffin looks to me like he's getting tired....mechanics starting to get labored. This is my impression....to tell for sure you'd need to go back and look at game video later.

7:33: I really do like Hershiser. Execute Joe Morgan and put Hershiser on in his place and I might watch ESPN games again.

7:23: Now Ruffin is starting to lose his location....perhaps I was an inning too soon when I mentioned the heat sapping the pitchers.

7:15: Keyes homers now...I like him a lot for the draft next year as a breakthrough guy. Inning over....will LSU counterattack?

7:11: Coleman misplaces a high fastball and Tucker makes him pay. Brandon Belt up now...grounds to first base. He was drafted in the fifth round by the Giants...there's concern that he didn't live up to his physical potential in college....be interesting to see how his swing works in the pros....Moldenhauer just knocked a LONG home run to center field. Ball seems to be jumping tonight but he nailed that legitimately.

7:05: Pitchers in charge so far. Will the heat and humidity sap their strength, say about the 6th inning?

6:47: LeMahieu's bunt brings a question to mind....what is the most "fundamentally sound" college baeball program?

6:43. Never mind. That was a nasty breaking ball for the end of inning strikeout.

6:42: I like Orel Hershiser as a color commentator. Coleman's not looking particularly sharp to me.

6:29: Louis Coleman's mechanics are.....interesting. I can see why scouts prefer him as a reliever, but as long as he repeats his mechanics well and throws strikes, I think the Royals should let him ride as a starter as long as possible. Chance Ruffin's delivery is a bit more normal but still seems kind of....whippy? Where do you guys seem Ruffin going in the draft next  year?

6:12: And Ryan Schmipf knocks the first homer....I'm predicting an 11-9 LSU victory.

6:05: Of course we had a power surge at 5:59, knocking out my cable TV for a bit. The DVR is rebooting....seems OK now.

REMINDER: I'll be live-blogging the College World Series starting tonight at 6 pm central.

Other stuff this week: Hit-and-Runs; at least one Prospect Retro; return of Prospect Smackdown; Recent History of First Base Prospects.

Which player drafted in the first round this year do you think is most likely to be a failure?

Hit-And-Run, June 20, 2009

**Everyone with a modicum of sabermetric knowledge knows that batting average is a traditionally overrated stat, but I still find something aesthetically pleasing about a .300 average. A guy to watch in his regard is Tim Smith of the Rangers, drafted in the seventh round in 2007 out of Arizona State. Considered a pure hitter but with marginal power for a corner guy, Smith hit .300/.359/.450 in the Midwest League last year (+17 percent OPS), and has continued that in 2009. He began the year with a .333/.413/.475 mark in 35 games for Class A Bakersfield, and has continued to rake with a .386/.422/.474 line in 15 games after being promoted to Double-A Frisco. He has good plate discipline, and despite just-decent running speed he can swipe a base, being 11 for 12 this year in steals. Smith projects as a left fielder, but doesn't have the ideal home run power you want from that position. Nevertheless, if he can maintain the strike zone judgment and good contact rate, it's possible he could eventually tap into more power given his 6-3, 225 frame. He's worth keeping an eye on.

**Smith's teammate at Frisco, outfielder Mitch Moreland, is another Ranger bat to watch. Also a 2007 draft product (17^th round, Mississippi State), Moreland hit .324/.400/.536 in the Midwest League last year. Like Smith, he raked at Bakersfield (.341/.421/.594 in 43 games) earlier this season, and has continued to bash the ball in the Texas League (.323/.363/.469 in 23 games). Moreland has more current power than Smith and also controls the strike zone well. A first baseman/right fielder, he's bulkier at 6-2, 230 and doesn't run as well as Smith.

**Since moving up to Double-A Jacksonville two weeks ago, Marlins phenom Mike Stanton is hitting just .244/.314/.311 with a 3/14 BB/K in 45 at-bats. Given his previous problems with strikeouts, this is hardly surprising. But given his age (still just 19), and the performance he was showing in the Florida State League (.294/.390/.578 in 50 games), it is way too early to be concerned; he's shown the ability to make adjustments in the past, and is likely to do so again once his experience builds up. He's been pushed, but I don't really have a problem with this promotion: he didn't have a lot left to learn in A-ball, as his natural ability is so great it was overriding his weaknesses. Nevertheless, the Marlins would be well-advised to be patient and avoid further pushing until he gets his dominance back. I'd leave him in Double-A the rest of the year.

**The Mets are another team that loves to rush prospects, and right now things are going well with RHP Jenry Mejia. He began the year going 4-1, 1.97 with a 44/16 K/BB in 50 innings for St. Lucie, with a 2.21 GO/AO ratio in nine starts. Promoted to Double-A Binghamton earlier this month, he's 0-2 in three starts, but with a 2.25 ERA and a 17/7 K/BB in 16 innings, with 17 hits allowed. I like the fact that he's maintained his strong GO/AO, with a 2.22 mark so far in the Eastern League. Mejia is just 19 years old, and skipped low Class A, having pitched in the New York-Penn League last year. He posted a 3.49 ERA in 57 innings for Brooklyn, with a 52/23 K/BB. In 66 combined this year, he has a 2.04 ERA with a 61/23 K/BB. The fact that he's maintained virtually identical ratios at a higher level of competition is a really good sign, especially given his age. As with Stanton, I'd leave him in Double-A the rest of the season. I gave him a Grade C+ "but with a very high ceiling" rating in the book. I'm jumping that up to Grade B+ now, and he could be a Grade A- or perhaps even a Grade A by the end of this season.

**You young whippersnappers probably don't remember Vida Blue, but he was one hell of a pitcher. I'd love to know what his minor league pitch counts were:

1968, 2.49 ERA, 231/80 K/BB in 152 innings, 102 hits for Class A Burlington at age 18.
1969: 3.20 ERA, 112/52 K/BB in 104 innings, 80 hits  for Double-A Birmingham;
           6.64 ERA with 24/18 K/BB in 42 innings for the Athletics, 49 hits.
1970: 2.17 ERA, 165/55 K/BB in 133 innings, 88 hits for Triple-A Iowa;
           2.10 ERA with 35/12 K/BB in 39 innings for the Athletics, 20 hits.

He threw 312 innings with a 301/88 K/BB and a mere 209 hits allowed in 1971 for Oakland at age 21. He threw just 151 innings in 1972, but rebounded with 264 in 1973. He lasted until age 36, and at his best he was one of the most dominating lefties I ever saw, but seems to be pretty much forgotten these days. He didn't quite live up to his early potential, but he still won 209 games.

College World Series Finals: LSU vs. Texas

    My two favorite college baseball teams are Louisiana State and Arizona State. The Tigers have just had a lot of interesting players over the years, while I've liked the Sun Devils from way back in the Mike Sodders days. So I was hoping that it would be LSU vs. ASU in the final. . .alas, the Texas Longhorns spoiled my fun with that.

    Prediction for Monday's game: Big slugfest as the worn out pitching staffs wilt in the last game. LSU wins the game 11-9. . .home runs are hit by D.J. LeMehieu and Jared Mitchell for LSU; Brandon Belt hits two homers for Texas, driving in six, but his heroics aren't quite enough.

    Discuss the game and the players involved here. Barring something unforeseen happening, I'm going to live-blog the game starting at 6 pm Central Time on Monday evening.