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Around SBN: Trent Richardson Interviews Fellow Brown Brandon Weeden

BP's Reds Top 11 Prospects

Five-Star Prospects

  1. Jay Bruce, CF
  2. Homer Bailey, RHP
  3. Joey Votto, 1B/OF
Four-Star Prospects
4. Johnny Cueto, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
  1. Todd Frazier, INF
  2. Devin Mesoraco, C
  3. Drew Stubbs, CF
  4. Matt Maloney, LHP
  5. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
  6. Juan Francisco, 3B
Two-Star Prospects
11. Neftali Soto, SS

Just Missing: Josh Roenicke, RHP; Daryl Thompson, RHP; Brandon Waring, 3B

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7060

That is a pretty solid top 3/4. And pretty decent depth behind them, as well.

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McKamey:Top 3 farm system
 Tampa Bay, Boston and Cincinnati have the best systems in my opinion, with Oakland being in the mix with New York (A), Texas, Atlanta, and Los Angeles (N) for the next spots.

by rayver723 on Jan 18, 2008 2:33 PM EST reply actions  

Atlanta
I'm not sold on their system, although I think an argument for the last 2 or 3 spots in the top 10 can be made for about 7 clubs - Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Cleveland, Atlanta, Seattle.

Its strange to see Texas at the top of any list.  It feels as though they have not been at the draft for the last few years.  Speaking of, the MLS SuperDraft is on!

by bheikoop on Jan 18, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

McKamey has 7 Braves in his top 100
and I'm guessing Locke just missed who I feel is better than a few of them and they have Julio Teheran as well who is a little to young to consider.  I think they have a decent amount of depth still and enough arms to break the top 10.

by jfish26101 on Jan 18, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

XBH
"The Good: Bruce is loaded with both tools and skills. He's a fantastic hitter who is seemingly incapable of light contact, projecting as a .300+ hitter who approaches 100 extra-base hits annually."

Unless 80-85-ish, which is damn good, counts as "approaching 100" this statement is pretty baffonish.

Overlord has the worst collection of position players I've ever seen from somebody who actually felt their roster was pimp worthy

by McLovin on Jan 18, 2008 3:15 PM EST reply actions  

"baffonish"
clever. i don't see any reason why such a projection would be baffonish (is that some sort of combo of baffling and buffoonish?). care to elaborate?

by larry on Jan 18, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Re:
100 XBH in the majors is absolutely ridiculous.  

I believe when Brandon Wood hit his 100 XBH in the minors it was the first time it had happened in professional baseball since the 1960's (might have the decade wrong, but it's been a LONG time)

Manny Ramirez, in his BEST season, had 87 extra base hits.  I think Pujols had mid 90's once, but we're talking about some of the best hitters of this generation, and even Manny hasn't broken 90 XBH...

-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Jan 18, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

100 XBH
oddly, i looked up all the times this has ever been done for another thread on this site not so long ago:
2001 bonds 107, helton 105, sosa 103, l gonzalez 100
2000 helton 103
1995 belle 103
1948 musial 103
1937 greenberg 103
1932 klein 103, foxx 100
1930 klein 107, gehrig 100
1927 gehrig 117
1922 hornsby 102
1921 ruth 119

http://www.minorleagueball.com/comments/2007/8/21/1342/84707/33#33

by jpahk on Jan 18, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions  

paring down the list
roids: bonds, sosa, probably belle
park: helton (x2), klein (x2)

that leaves ruth, gehrig (x2), hornsby, foxx, greenberg, musial, and gonzo. that is a pretty good list of the greatest sluggers the game has ever seen.

also, i find it interesting that ruth was the first one to do it (no surprise), but he did it in 1921, pretty early in his career. not only did he never repeat, but his 119 is still the record, and only gehrig (117) has even come close. nobody else has more than 103 (107 if you include roids- and park-enhanced seasons).

by jpahk on Jan 18, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

lol, did i really write that?
that leaves ruth, gehrig (x2), hornsby, foxx, greenberg, musial, and gonzo. that is a pretty good list of the greatest sluggers the game has ever seen.

i meant, "that is a pretty good list of the greatest sluggers the game has ever seen, and luis gonzalez."

by jpahk on Jan 18, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

normally....
i'm not the accusatory type for PEDs, but i'd put it as a 1-in-my-ass chance that LoGo didn't take steroids

by bleedjaxblue on Jan 18, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions  

He did say...
He did say that, in the perfect world, Bruce would APPROACH 100 XBH annually. To me, that's 90 XBH. I feel that the list of those who have hit 90 in the past 50 years would be a bit more extensive.

In the perfect world, Jay Bruce has the potential to be a great, great hitter, and with pretty good speed and baserunning skills and insane pop to all parts of the field, he has a chance to hit close to 90 (or more) XBH annually.

by rmande09 on Jan 18, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh
I would like to remove my foot from my mouth. He said "The Good." I read it once quickly and when we got to this topic, I ASSUMED something like that would be under "The Perfect World" part, not something he expects.

by rmande09 on Jan 18, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions  

i thought he wrote
in a perfect world he'd be larry walker-esque. the projection on 100 XBH was in his "good" section. but now i'm parsing.

by larry on Jan 18, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

He did
You were right. I just read it once quick and got it mixed up.

by rmande09 on Jan 18, 2008 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

gonzo
maybe he did, maybe he didn't. i guess i'm a bad person for throwing evil albert belle under the bus but protecting the integrity of media-friendly luis gonzalez. he's certainly way out of place on that list, steroids or no. every single other guy was a much, much better player than gonzalez over the course of his career.

by jpahk on Jan 18, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Re:
Hmmm, maybe I misread the article or misinterpreted it, but that is an extremely impressive list of players / seasons...
-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!

by Jgaztambide on Jan 18, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

helton broke the 100 XBH mark twice
larry walker had 99 one season

Albert Belle reached 103 XBH and 99 XBH

True though that it is a rarity (no such season by A-Rod, Griffey's best was 93 XBH) and so on...

So maybe it is buffoonery

by SLK on Jan 18, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

it's a lot
but seems to me that's exactly how one would project the top hitting prospect in the game. i guess maybe i'm willing to be a little looser in my definition of approaching and not worry so much about parsing the words of someone in order to call someone baffonish.

by larry on Jan 18, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

ummm
unless "projecting" means "what he has done already", your reply missed the boat.

by SLK on Jan 18, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions  

don't press lagoofy, he's been relatively docile
under this alias.  
ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (Astros: better than you thought)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Jan 18, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I was trying to be light hearted
so apologies if my comment came off harsher than that...

by SLK on Jan 18, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

whatever dude
Just because I bust your balls for some of the crap you brag about doesn't mean I'm LaGoofy. Come on. Who brags about a roster that lists Baldelli, Botts, Ethier, Quintanilla, and Feliz as starters? I'll gladly tell a moderator or John my personal information if they ask. I don't have anything to hide. Besides I don't create inflammatory diaries for my amusement like you have a documented history of doing.
Overlord has the worst collection of position players I've ever seen from somebody who actually felt their roster was pimp worthy

by McLovin on Jan 18, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

blindzorro?
i know that mclovin isn't your first go around on this site, so who you really are isn't much of a concern to me.  we both know what you are.  

and if you're not bright enough to recognize what i did with the community poll, you're probably not bright enough to realize that the real fun in building a team isn't from winning a championship, the real fun comes from building up a perennial 100 loss team (which my team was from 2004-2006) into a ~.500 team (which i was in 2007), into a 82+ win team (which i will be in 2008), and finally, into a championship contender (which is the projection for 2009).

you'd have no way of knowing that my team lost 100 games in the two season prior to my arriving.  nor would you have any idea that my predecessor traded away draft picks like candy.  but i wouldn't expect a troll to have much in the way of distinguishing ability.  nor would i expect a troll to maybe, you know, do a little poking around before declaring a roster as having "the worst collection of position players I've ever seen from somebody who actually felt their roster was pimp worthy."

the fact is, regardless of who you were, who you are now is someone that abuses the community and takes from it without giving back.  you've added nothing of value, and while this incarnation might only be passive aggressive, i'm sure you'll start showing your true colors soon enough.  

ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH REPORTS (Astros: better than you thought)

variables don't; constants aren't

by overlord on Jan 19, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions  

re:
You're so into yourself that I guess you oblivious how arrogant the majority of your posts come across as. Then when I saw that arrogance was not backed up by a quality roster... wow... sad...
Overlord has the worst collection of position players I've ever seen from somebody who actually felt their roster was pimp worthy

by McLovin on Jan 19, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

In defense of Overlord....
I am in the same league as he is and can attest to the turnaround he has made for his team. His team had lost 204 games combined in 2005 and 2006. We had to remove that GM from the league because of consistently bad trades that continued to hurt the team in both the short and long terms. The team overlord took over was barren of almost any top prospects, or even decent ones, and his roster was full of highly priced vets which could not perform well.

Overlord has taken that team and within one season got them to about a .500 team within one season with some fancy line-up and pitching positioning and some smart trades. Now, I will agree that I do not always see eye-to-eye with him when it comes to evaluating prospects, but I do respect his opinions. He has shown in just one year of knowing him that he can find diamonds long before others do, and his ability to find role players is great.

So, just because he isn't in some 12 team league (ours is 30 teams of up to 50 players each) with each team consisting of nothing but a bunch of All-Stars and B+ or better prospects doesn't make him a bad evaluator of talent. And he doesn't just regurgitate what others say about prospects, and his website shows that he does a lot of research into pitchers. So when he is talking about pitchers I read carefully, because it is something interesting and new... not just some rewording of a line I have read here 20 times before.

Remember, it's easy to find the great players when they are playing great, I think Overlord has shown some ability to find some great high upside players, in particular pitchers, when they aren't playing great. So, why don't you quit being an ass and give a little respect to someone instead of trying to make yourself feel like a more knowledgeable baseball fan by calling someone else's roster crap?

Thank you, and have a nice weekend.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 19, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Re:
Is your league comprised of men or women? Because my  calling him out started as ball busting. Most men can handle that. He couldn't. Starts calling me a troll and other names. I guess he's insecure. That's when I put up the sig. It must be driving him nuts because he's practically stalking me now. If he can go a week without acting like a troll TOWARDS ME I'll bring the sig down in interest of harmony. But he'll have to earn it with good behavior.
Overlord has the worst collection of position players I've ever seen from somebody who actually felt their roster was pimp worthy

by McLovin on Jan 19, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Just curious...
Maybe someone has an answer. With all this talk of getting 100 XBH in one season, does anyone know if a pitcher has ever given up 100 XBH in one season? I haven't looked into it at all, so for all I know it's a common occurence, but I just thought I would ask.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 18, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes
Milton did in 2005 with 55 doubles,  7 triples, 40 HR. His batting line against was .302 / .349 / .543 / .892 with a 132 OPS+against. That would be very nice a hitter.

I'm sure there have been plenty of other 100 XBH seasons, since pitchers pitch more ABa than hitters get in a season.

by mlbfan30 on Jan 18, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

That's funny...
Milton's 2005 season was actually the first one that came to head when I thought of pitchers giving up 100 XBH, but I wasn't sure how many doubles he gave up. And I posted my question without going and looking into anyone's stats.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 18, 2008 7:53 PM EST up reply actions  

100 XBH
Well regardless, Mr. Bruce has some extremely lofty expectations to live up to.

I do wonder, does he get a full time gig right out of spring training? I'd like to see what kind of #'s he could put up. And would the numbers be more representative of a "Brauny" or "Gordonesque" rookie campaign?

Ted Williams: .406

by bodyiq on Jan 18, 2008 5:31 PM EST reply actions  

First
Player to reach 100 XBH & 200 K.  :)  Mahalo

Matt

I am one of the bad things that happen to good people.

by WayneCampbell05 on Jan 18, 2008 6:47 PM EST reply actions  

100 XBH
Seems alot of people commented since I last visited the thread. I don't think anyone has said anything that makes me change my mind. I never said hitting 100 XBH is impossible. But I do think that suggesting Bruce can challenge it annually is ridiculous. This is a threshold that has  very rarely been surpassed in the post WWII era of baseball. The only guy who did it twice since WWII called pre-humidor Coors home.
Overlord has the worst collection of position players I've ever seen from somebody who actually felt their roster was pimp worthy

by McLovin on Jan 18, 2008 7:04 PM EST reply actions  

100 XBH
I think the comment was more of a saying that he's going to hit a lot of them. I'm not sure he knows what 100 XBH really means. Bruce could be a guy who gets 80 annually, which is still very very good.

Who else thinks the Cueto rating was a little low? He seemed to emphasize his size a lot more than other people here.
Perfect World as a #3 seems a little low. He could probably pitch like a #3 next year with his great control and 3 plus pitches.

by mlbfan30 on Jan 18, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

i think blanton will be a red
once the bedard/santana drama is done

some combo of bailey or cueto/stubbs/IF prospect

by rayver723 on Jan 18, 2008 9:16 PM EST reply actions  

Cueto/Votto
Shouldn't those two trade places?

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 18, 2008 9:28 PM EST reply actions  

No
Cueto should just get bumped up.

by kennythered on Jan 18, 2008 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Good to see Daryl Thompson bounce back . . .
from injury and be top 15.  Was bummed he was a thrown-in in the FLoppie/Kearnsie trade.  

by VladiHondo on Jan 19, 2008 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

Bruce will be like Gordon was last year
I put my neck out that Bruce hits .245 .310 .410 next year.  I don't like how his BABIP was Maybin esque.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 19, 2008 7:52 AM EST reply actions  

Bruce and BABIP
Braves, I know you have seen this before, but Maybin had a high BABIP based on his insanely high amount of infield singles (23.4% of his infield groundballs were singles.... and that is insane. He is fast, but that will not work in the major leagues).

Jay Bruce on the other hand had a high BABIP based on how hard he hit the ball, not based on being ridiculously fast and getting 24% of his hits on the infield.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jan 19, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

+1
Overlord has the worst collection of position players I've ever seen from somebody who actually felt their roster was pimp worthy

by McLovin on Jan 19, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

+1
I don't agree with your rationale, but I'd also say that I'm far from excited about Bruce's prospects heading into next year.  For me, it's more his plate discipline.  That K rate scares the life out of me, and I'd personally be loathe to commit in any major way to his being productive from the get-go.  

That having been said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he does produce solid counting stats (20HR, 80RBI, 15SB) and gets some ROY love.  

by GuyinNY on Jan 19, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

+1
And with Dusty at the helm, that's got to scare you a little bit.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jan 20, 2008 3:19 AM EST up reply actions  

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