fantasy question: Kemp or Kubel?

First off, I was considering making an entire diary earlier to talk about how impressed I was with the off-season adjustments Kemp has made in his plate approach. Even though he's only had 9 ABs, I would put money right now that he doesn't revert to last season's lunging, undisciplined swings. As a Dodger fan, I couldn't be more thrilled about this, because his horrible discipline and inability to stay back on breaking pitches looked like potentially fatal problems to an otherwise supremely talented prospect. Now that it appears he's at least SOMEWHAT capable of improvement, my long-term outlook for him is much more optimistic.

Having said all that, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes another season before the fruits of Kemp's labor (the improved approach) really start showing. For this season, I would have more tempered expectations, not too NUMERICALLY distinct from last season (though I think the performance itself will be much more consistent).

A second point on Kemp, and the more obvious one: He's not going to get the ABs this year in almost any scenario.

Unlike the poster above, I think it's nearly impossible that Ethier "fades into a dud." Even though I'm not particularly high on him, he's also a pretty solid hitter at the plate, and he'll maintain a good batting average, which means he's unlikely to disappear from the lineup, given his age (and defensive superiority to Pierre and LoGo, who are both DISASTERS defensively, even if Ethier's average at best).

James Loney will be called up sometime in the next month or two -- I have little doubt about that. In order for him not to take up another outfield spot, Nomar has to get injured. Obviously, this isn't a huge stretch, but it is part of the equation.

The rest of the equation is that LoGo has to be turned into a part-time player. Given how he's looked defensively in his first few games, there's a chance this will happen as well. But I don't see it happening for another three or four months, if at all. Do you really want to wait for that?

In the meantime, Kemp will be battling with Ethier (and possibly Loney) for the final outfield spot, as he bats only against lefties right now. His best chance for this year -- which involves Nomar getting hurt and Grady Little souring on veteran LoGo -- is to pick up roughly two-thirds the starts in right field (since Juan "piece-of-$#!+" Pierre has a consecutive games streak going), and this would likely be coming into effect no sooner than mid-June. And, as I said, as impressed as I am about his improved approach, I like the change better for his long-term prospects than for a giant leap forward this year.

I would have to talk to a Twins fan about Kubel's chances this year (along with wanting to know how much you valued "upside" for someone who I imagine will spend most of their time not in your starting lineup), but my advice is that Kemp needn't be owned in non-keeper leagues this year.