Yovani Yo Mama

by odo31 on Jan 31, 2007 9:04 AM EST

Alright,

we hear all this talk about Hughes and Bailey.

What about Gallardo? How far off is he from these two "aces"

I have a chance to get him and Jeter for Pronk in a keeper league, but wnated to get others opinions on Yovani.

I personally like him.

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Not far behind

Gallardo's velocity is a bit behind Bailey and his command of some pitches might be a bit behind Hughes.

But overall he's certainly in the same class of pitchers. I actually might like Gallardo a bit more than Hughes because he has shown he can be effective and healthy for more than 5 innings at a time for a full season (including a great playoff run), but I know I'm in the minority.

by FI @ Minor League Ball on Jan 31, 2007 9:07 AM EST reply actions

Yovani

Gallardo is a fine pitching prospect. At the moment however, I would place him behind Bailey/Hughes, but ahead of Tim Lincecum.

by asianinvasion on Jan 31, 2007 9:29 AM EST reply actions

There is a fine line separating

Hughes/Bailey from Lincecum/Gallardo. All 4 look like potential studs.

That being said, I would have to see your fantasy team to give you a recommendation on whether to take that trade. Pronk is very much a stud, and I've got him posting better numbers than Ortiz this year. The only question is his health, but most of his injuries have been "freakish", not chronic.

by guru4u on Jan 31, 2007 10:24 AM EST reply actions

meh

Jeter's a more valuable fantasy player than Hafner anyway. Make that happen.

by limozeen on Jan 31, 2007 10:28 AM EST reply actions

Jeter

Not a lot left (years) in the tank. Great career though. If its a keeper league, I'd rather have Pronk.

by JakeFree on Jan 31, 2007 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

Jeter

He's what, 32? Come on. He's extremely fit and never been injured. He just put up his second finest season. And he gives you insane 5x5 value because of his position. He's above average at all 5 hitting categories. Not true for Pronk, who gives away considerable SBs and may not even be eligible at 1B in some leagues.

When you consider that you get Yovanni as well and add in Hafner's injury track record, the deal becomes obvious.

by limozeen on Jan 31, 2007 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Disagree

Jeter's "extremely fit and never been injured."

Except for the 6 weeks he missed to start 2003.

Jeter's "above average at all 5 hitting categories."

His 3-year averages for HRs and RBIs are 18 and 81.

Don't get me wrong, Jeter's a very good player, but he's no 5x5 superstar. And his long swing means when he ages he will fall quickly. I can see an argument that he's more valuable at SS then Hafner at DH, but there are a lot of very good SSs out there right now: Reyes, Tejada, Furcal, Rollins, Carlos Guillen, and Mike Young all spring to mind. Not to mention "value" guys like Hanley, Lugo, Bill Hall, Peralta, Drew, etc.

Pronk, meanwhile, is 29 and still getting better due to his late start. His OPS is still trending upwards.

by Yakker on Jan 31, 2007 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

Jeter

18 HR and 81 RBI are MONSTROUS from a SS. Just as monstrous as 40 HR or 120 RBI from a 1B. Roto is all about balancing position and raw numbers. Jeter is much more valuable than Hafner in roto for this reason. Jeter is well above average in all sorts of categories, including being amazing in the most imporant roto category, steals.

by limozeen on Jan 31, 2007 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

MONSTROUS!!!!! reall???

Last year there were 7 SS having at least 18 home runs (which Jeter was not one)

There were 8 who had at least 81 RBI.

When 20-25% reach a certain plateau, I wouldn't call it "MONSTROUS"

Conversley, Hafner was 8th in the majors in homers and 11th in RBI (while hitting .308) in spite of missing over 30 games last year.

He'll continue to miss 5-10 NL games a year, but his other injuries were more fluky, so if you project him to play 155 or so games a year, he's David Ortiz with a better batting average.

Hafner is worth much more than Jeter as he's much better compared to those of his own position than is Jeter

by Galt on Jan 31, 2007 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

+1

hafner and its not close...in fact, i can't even believe we're having this discussion...

by Rob Castellano on Jan 31, 2007 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

well

At least I'm reminded why I win fantasy leagues.

by limozeen on Jan 31, 2007 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting

I win all my leagues too, yet I have Hafner valued at $10 more in a standard 12 team mixed auction league than Jeter. His numbers are far superior to Jeter, even after factoring in position scarcity.

by guru4u on Jan 31, 2007 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

If you win

thinking that 18 homers and 81 RBI is "monsterous" from your shorstop position it's because you play in a 40-team league

by Galt on Jan 31, 2007 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

LOL

Good for you. I win my league every year too. Just goes to show you there are many ways to skin a cat.

by Yakker on Jan 31, 2007 7:51 PM EST up reply actions

5x5

I don't know, I think Jeter will out-value Hafner in 5x5 this year at least, and likely in 2008 as well.

by BobbyMac on Jan 31, 2007 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

Jeter

While I think that it may not be the right time to trade for Jeter, there's no way you're going to convince me that Travis Hafner is going to age better than Derek Jeter. Jeter is an incredible athlete who just had a career year at 32 and you're trying to tell me that he is going to age faster than most? At 32 he posted a k% lower than his career rate, a bb% greater than his career rate, and his IsoP was only .07 off his career rate. If his swing is slowing down it surely didn't affect his ability to lace line drives as 22% of his balls in play were line drives. Sure, his BABIP of .394 looks a little flukish, but if you factor that line drive percentage in with the fact that he is learning to keep the ball on the ground better each year, it's really not that far off.

I think probably one of the best ways to get an idea of how a player will age is to look at his comparables. Hafner's list of comparable players include the players like Boog Powell, Kent Hrbek, Mo Vaughn, Albert Belle, and Cecil Fielder. All players that had pretty outstanding peaks but regressed quickly in their mid thirties. Not too surprising here, it's pretty common knowledge that big, less than athletic mashers tend to flame out earlier than the average player. Too be fair, Hafner's comparable also include Willie Stargell and Barry Bonds, but I think they are clearly exceptions to the rule.

Now let's take a look at Jeter's comparables. Of Jeter's top ten comparable players, 6 were still playing at the age of 40 and all of them were still playing at 35. Those 6 players are Pete Rose, Craig Biggio, Wade Boggs, Barry Larkin, Paul Molitor, and his the number #1 most comparable player to Jeter....Julio Franco!

by neutralluke on Jan 31, 2007 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

Well

My point was that Jeter's got a 3-year head start on Pronk in the aging department, and we've already seen everything he can do. Pronk's still getting better (scary thought).

For keeper leagues, I like to look 3 years out, too much can change with guys for any farther projections to be too useful. And Pronk from 29-31 should be just fine. Jeter from 32 to 34? Probably also fine, though expect even fewer HRs as he ages and continues punching and fisting the ball into RF. He'll likely continue to rack up 110 Rs and a .300+ average, but his power numbers will drop, and he may lose some bags too.

by Yakker on Jan 31, 2007 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

re: uncle charlie

everything you said was good, cept jeter doesnt not have a long swing, in fact he has a very compact one keeping his hands inside the ball and allowing him to go the other way as well as he does, so im gunna have to disagree with you on that

by nyybaseball99 on Jan 31, 2007 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

good point

i thought that as well...however, IMO as he ages his swing only get shorter in order to keep up with the fastballs which will keep his BA up but his power will drop...especially once hes not playing in yankee gaydium anymore where probably 8-10 (if not more) of his hrs wouldn't have reached the track anywhere else

in any other park, jeter hits maybe 10hrs this season so i think its fair to say that by 2009, assuming he keeps this same approach where hes clearly valued BA over power, jeter is barely going to be hitting 8-9hrs annually

by Rob Castellano on Jan 31, 2007 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

power

his home and road averages over the past 5 years look like this...

Home: 9.2 HR/season
Road: 7.6 HR/season

so perhaps the stadium plays advantageous to him, but not nearly as much as you said, about a 1.5 HR difference

while yankee stadium has the short porches it also has death valley in left center (statistically its supressed runs 5 of the last 6 years, but was above average HR wise 5 of the last 6 years)

and as far as not play in yankee stadium anymore...well, he's going to be a yankee his entire career and the new stadium will have the same dimensions, so...yeah

by nyybaseball99 on Jan 31, 2007 4:20 PM EST up reply actions

Gallardo

I remember at the start of the season picking him up a couple games into the season. I am so happy I did because, he now joins my minor league pitching staff that already includes the likes of Hughes, Bailey, Lincecum, Miller, Kershaw, Adenhart and others. I have a lot of great young pitching prospects because, I've decided to build from the ground up with young players.

To me Gallardo is on the next level of elite pitching prospect right below Hughes/Bailey. To me he's probably the first player on that next level. Theres so many elite pitching prospects right now in the minors. Hughes/Bailey just happen to be a tad better.

by nate050904 on Jan 31, 2007 11:24 AM EST reply actions

Get Yo

Get him, he's a definite keeper. Clearly the most successful pitching prospect in the Brewer organization, bowling over everyone and earning recognition as one of baseball's top flight pitching prospects along the way.

Before being promoted to AA he led the Florida State League in SO's (103) against only 28 walks and a musicale 0.99 WHIP while carrying a 6-3 record and a 2.09 ERA in 77.2 innings. And, in the game against Jupiter (6/9/06) he went "two outs away from throwing Brevard County's first nine-inning no-hitter since May 28, 1995."

He hasn't missed a step since. Hughes, Bailey, Yo it's splitting hairs between them.

by C2butts on Jan 31, 2007 11:49 AM EST reply actions

My Team

We are allowed 5 keepers and we have a farm system. If our farm players get promoted, we can keep them for free (not counting towards our 5). I sold out early, so my crop of keepers is ridiculous, but the farm could use some work.

my keepers are:

Wright, Utley, Soriano, Damon, Hafner,

my farm keepers are:

Richie Hill, Jon Lester, Marmol, Prince, Markakis

my milb is:

Elbert
Pence
McGee
Cueto
FMart
Clement
Inman
B. Barton

it is a 12 team league and 8 of the teams are keeping SS, leaving guys like Furcal, C. Guillen, and Lopez available.

What you said about Pronk being injury prone is true, but they have been freakish injuries. I love the guy. The only numbers Jeter has Pronk is in avg, and steals (two things you can easily get in the draft). It's hard to trade away 40 HRs

by odo31 on Jan 31, 2007 12:19 PM EST reply actions

Personally

I would keep Haf. A stud SS is nice, but there's a lot of depth there. And 40 bombs without the .260 average is very hard to find. Yo doesn't do that much for your milb team.

Don't know if Mike Young's getting thrown back or not, but he's basically Jeter minus a few steals, at much less cost.

by Yakker on Jan 31, 2007 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

Personal Opinion

I think it makes sense for you to make this trade. I don't think either side really "wins," thought you definitely get a bit more overall "value," in my opinion.

Jeter and Hafner are very similar in 5x5 roto value. Hafner probably a bit moreso, but, if he does not have 1B eligibility, that probably knocks down his value a bit. Regardless, they are almost interchangeable, and the added bonus of getting a top three pitching prospect who already has excellent stuff with good control is just an added bonus (especially considering he'll pitch in a decent-sized park with a good GB ratio). He'll also be pitching for an NL Central team and for an offense that looks to have a good chance to be a powerhouse (Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hall). He definitely makes your Minor League squad much better, as F-Mart and Elbert are really the only two guys who look to have much "impact" ability, with Elbert being questionable because of his awful control.

I think you have some good young pitching in Hill and Lester, though Marmol is a bit of a stretch and really doesn't look like he's going to be much of an asset in 12-team leagues. The name of the game IS cheap, young pitching, however, and with Lester remaining questionable and Hill pulling a Jekyll and Hyde, it's tough to be 100% sure there.

To further enhance my opinion that you should pull the trigger, you have quite the stacked keeper-squad; how the hell did you pull that off? Very impressive. I just counted two top-10 guys, a late 1st-early 2nd guy, and a 2nd rounder (depending on position eligibility) in Haf, as well as a very underrated young OF and a 1B who could come into his own and hit 40 in '07 or '08. Impressive. If you weren't loaded with power already, it may change my mind - but you have Soriano, Utley, Wright, and Fielder, all of whom should challenge for 30, with Soriano probably going for 40+ in his new home (and lineup). I think it would make sense to trade a guy who doesn't have a position for a guy at a position with scarcity.

If it were me, I'd pull the trigger. It is your decision, however, but it looks good for next season!

PS - What are the chances you'd get Furcal? If you could definitely get Furcal, I'd reconsider; but if you cannot get the deal, I'd want the top SS in Jeter.

by travellin3261 on Jan 31, 2007 5:12 PM EST reply actions

Pronk

is Travis Hafner's nickname. It's half Project half donkey!

by Tyler on Jan 31, 2007 9:00 PM EST reply actions

Note on position scarcity

I see a lot of people saying Jeter = Hafner because of his position. Let me ask you this question. Which stat line would you rather have:

.305/15/75/120/20 from a SS

.300/50/130/110/0 from a DH

Because if Hafner stays healthy (his past injuries are about as flukish as you can get), he can easily post or even surpass those numbers.

I think the single biggest mistake fantasy baseball participants can make is overrating position scarcity. Yes it matters, but if you are ranking guys like Derek Jeter over guys like Travis Hafner, you are overrating it severely.

by guru4u on Feb 1, 2007 12:39 PM EST reply actions

agree

.305/15/75/120/20 from a SS - Jeter
Betancourt (about 9th/10th best SS in AL)
.289/9/47/68/11
=====
.016/6/28/52/9 - difference

Then to apply this to Pronks numbers

.300/50/130/110/0 from a DH
.016/6/28/52/9
=======
.284/44/102/58/-9

Obviously the steals are a loss and the number 10 hitter will surely have over 58 runs. But to get someone in the last spot for 44 bombs and 102 rbi may be difficult in a regular 10 team AL only league.

I guess it depends on the league rules.

Arthur: "Look, you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left!" Black Knight: "Yes I have." Arthur: "Look!" Black Knight: "It's just a flesh wound!"

by pedrophile on Feb 1, 2007 6:57 PM EST up reply actions