New York Yankees Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 4:04 PM EST in News

NEW YORK YANKEES TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Phil Hughes, RHP, Grade B+
Jose Tabata, OF, B+
J. Brent Cox, RHP, B
Eric Duncan, 3B-1B, B-
Tyler Clippard, RHP, B-
C.J. Henry, SS, B-
Eduardo Nunez, SS, B-
Austin Jackson, OF, C+
Christian Garcia, RHP, C+
Matt DeSalvo, RHP, C+
Jeff Marquez, RHP, C+
Sean Henn, LHP, C+
Darrell Rasner, RHP, C+
Brett Gardner, OF, C+
Garrett Patterson, LHP, C+
Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, C+
Lance Pendleton, RHP, C+
Kevin Howard, 2B, C
T.J. Beam, RHP, C
Colter Bean, RHP, C

The Yankees are making gradual progress improving the system, though there is a ways to go yet.

Hughes has Grade A natural ability, needing only durability to move into that range of prospect in my view. I personally love J. Brent Cox and think he will advance rapidly. Duncan is young enough to overcome his shaky Double-A performance last year. Clippard has terrific ratios but some scouts are still skeptical about him.

Guys like Henry, Nunez, and Jackson are very toolsy but unproven at this point. . .could be really good, but we don't know for sure yet.

Good Old Colter Bean is still around. His main problem now is age. . .too old at 29 to be more than a Grade C prospect, but I think he could help a lot of teams in the bullpen.

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Christian Garcia

Sounds like he has great stuff... see a breakout season from him?

by CJ on Mar 3, 2006 4:32 PM EST 0 recs

Question

Why do guys like Garcia and Marquez who are young with very good stuff and succeeded (albeit with flaws) in Low A end up with lower grades than guys on other teams who were just drafted and have done nothing outside of rookie/SS ball?

Examples (from the first few i've seen):

Wade Davis, RHP, B
James Houser, LHP, B
Aaron Thompson, LHP, B
Sean West, LHP, B-
Clay Buchholz, RHP, B
Michael Bowden, RHP, B

Garcia and Marquez arent the only guys i've noticed (theres a number on other teams), it just seems that the grade/rankings work well if you only look at one team individually, but in the grand scope of things, guys are getting too much gradewise because of reputation

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 4:53 PM EST 0 recs

Uuh

Wade Davis was drafted a couple years ago and led the NYPL in K's and was top 5 in just about every category in the league. Houser was drafted the same year as Delmon Young and pitched the full season in low-A, and didn't do too shabbily there.

by Brickhaus on Mar 4, 2006 12:41 AM EST up 0 recs

Newly Drafted Pitchers...

... are not so far behind pitchers drafted the previous year that they can't be rated above them. Being one year closer to the majors is a big thing, yes, but it's hardly the only thing. And Marquez and Garcia are not necessarily a whole year ahead of the four guys listed, who were all taken in the first round (or supplemental first) last year for a reason. Calling it "reputation" makes it sound as if it's undeserved. I'm not saying by any means that these reputations are never wrong, but West, Buchholz, Bowden, and Thompson were all taken in the first round because scouts thought very highly of them.

It's kind of like, I guess, the clamor that arises when Justin Upton is rated very highly. Sure he hasn't had an AB as a pro, but there IS other information you can go by, and that information says that Upton is a top prospect and has a very good chance to be a star.

Not that I'm saying those four pitchers are at Upton's level, but you get my drift.

by abbreviatedman on Mar 4, 2006 1:45 AM EST up 0 recs

It Seems...

That Garcia has great stuff, even better than Hughes, but that his command and control needs major improvement. He could be looking at a breakout season if he's able to improve on that part of his game.

by Tabata Time on Mar 3, 2006 4:54 PM EST 0 recs

Christian Garcia is a B- at the worst

I love this guy. K's and GBs.

by Ienpw on Mar 3, 2006 4:59 PM EST 0 recs

Also a comment on some of the scouting reports

from the book

TJ Beam: Says that he changes speeds with a mediocre fastball and tricks people. He actually has one of the better FBs in the system in the mid 90s and a slider

Clippard: Says he has a good slider/changeup combo, but his big 2nd pitch is a 12-6 curve, and then a slightly above average change. He does have a slider but he rarely throws it

Garcia: Says his changeup and curveball are both erratic and mediocre, while i've seen him in person and read plenty about him in addition. His changeup is definitely a work in progress as he only has been pitched since senior year of HS (2 yrs ago), but his curveball has been heralded as one of the best in the major leagues since last offseason. It may be somewhat erratic in its command at times, but its far from mediocre

Hughes: Says he has a low 90s FB, while most reports i've read is that hes been sitting at 93-94 all year (and was snapped off the same at mini-camp), also references a "decent slider" which despite being his 2nd best pitch in high school, hasnt been thrown professionally (until he does this year). So, I don't know how any judgement could be made on it when he hasnt thrown it yet :/

Marquez: Report is mostly correct, but he doesnt throw a slider, its a 12-6 curve that comes in around 78

I'm curious, for most of the scouting information, do you read it off the web, or get reports sent to you by friends?

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 5:02 PM EST 0 recs

garcia

I meant in the minor leagues

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 5:03 PM EST up 0 recs

reports

Depends on the player. Some of this is guys I have seen myself, some of it is from the web and other publications, some of it is from scouts, some of it is from front-office types, some of it is from people who just see a lot of games and who send me information.

I tend to downplay public velocity reports by 2-3 MPH. I don't know how many times someone reports pitcher X with a "95 MPH fastball" when they actually throw 91-93 with just occasional touches at 95, but it happens all the time and it creates unrealistic expecations. In Hughes' case, I had reports of him topping out at 94-95 MPH but pitching consistently at 90-93 in the Sally League. In this case "low 90s" was sloppy and vague writing; I should have been more specific and written something like "90-93 consistently with higher peaks." Most of the time I try to do that.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 5:48 PM EST up 0 recs

I think you have to give John the benefit of the..

...doubt on Garcia...he's really just learning to pitch...his upside is fantastic but he could go anywhere from where he is now...Who knows even how durable he is once he really starts to rack up those IP...fascinating prospect nonetheless.

ps- I love CJ Henry's athleticism and fluidity...if he gets ahold of some sound fundamentals, watch out.

by daveh33 on Mar 3, 2006 5:04 PM EST 0 recs

Abel Gomez

Close to making the list?

by CJ on Mar 3, 2006 5:08 PM EST 0 recs

Colter Bean!!!!

So what you are saying is Coltor Bean is as good a prospect as Phil Humber, Alay Soler. That makes incredibly little sense.

by dw9778 on Mar 3, 2006 5:10 PM EST 0 recs

hm

I agree about Humber. He should be a C+ at MOST, but Soler has done nothing outside of winter ball. Also, C is like a baseline grade. Bean is really nothing special. Lefties hit over 300 against him in AAA

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 5:17 PM EST up 0 recs

C

Maybe it's just me, but I don't see how you can rank Colter Bean, a 29 year old career minor leaguer as a C on any prospect list.

The fact that Soler has never pitched should have no bearing on his grade. After all, this is a prospect list, and there are many prospects who rate much higher than C, that have never pitched professionally.

My real problem is that the likes of Colter Bean and Sean Henn, show up on a prospect list at all, let alone with grades of C+ and C.

Hard to take that seriously.

by dw9778 on Mar 3, 2006 5:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Sean Henn

He had trouble in his callup, but overall he had a good year and he has good stuff for a lefty.

Bean being on the list is a big mistake because I can think of 20 guys in our system who deserve to be on the list ahead of him, including Melky Cabrera.

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 5:28 PM EST up 0 recs

Deserve?

What Bean deserves is a shot at the majors. What exactly is he supposed to be doing in the minors? What, in your opinion Poonani, makes him undeserving of a spot in the top 20?

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 3, 2006 5:42 PM EST up 0 recs

Uh

He has shitty stuff, he only can get out lefties, and hes gotten tar and feathered every time hes gotten a chance in spring camp. Melky may be a center fielder-type hitter with corner outfield defense, but how does Brandon Moss get a B-?

Not to mention, when you consider all the work that Epstein goes through to keep rule 5 guys around, and Bean was sent back to the Yankees without much push and shove before the 04 season.

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 6:54 PM EST up 0 recs

HUSH, YOU!!!

ALL COULTER BEAN DOES IS STRIKE PEOPLE OUUUUUTTTT.....

MAYBE ONLY AT AAA LEVEL, BUT IF I WERE A AAA MANAGER, HE'S EXACTLY THE "FIREMAN" I'D WANT!!!!

PLUS, HE'S JUST GREAT, HIS DELIVERY, THE WAY HIS COUNTRY AND WESTERN TUNE CONTRADICTS ALL THE HIP-HOP....

THERE'S NO MORE FUN IN COLUMBUS THAN WHEN COULTER BEAN TAKES THE MOUND, I TELL YOU WHAT!!!

by TOLAXOR on Mar 4, 2006 9:21 AM EST up 0 recs

Hank Hill

is that you? :-)

It sounds like he's a fan favorite, at the very least. That is a very passionate post in defense of Bean.

by akk99 on Mar 4, 2006 4:46 PM EST up 0 recs

Bean

As I recall, John's ben a Bean fan for a while and it's not hard to see why. He throws hard and has a decent secondary pitch but has never been given a shot. His numbers at AAA the last 3 seasons have been pretty decent or better. He's got a career 2.61 era, 1.09 WHIP and 11.7 k/9 and he's gotten a grand total of 2 IP in 1 game in the majors for his career. The guy puts up results, he just hasn't been given a shot at the majors.

by CrimsonLiederhosen on Mar 3, 2006 5:41 PM EST up 0 recs

Grade definition

You guys are missing the point of what "Grade C" means.

Definition of a Grade C prospect:

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.

A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.

Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 5:51 PM EST up 0 recs

Here's the progression from last year

Eric Duncan, 3B, B+ --> B-
Phil Hughes, RHP, B --> B+
Marcos Vechionacci, 3B-SS, B --> C+
Steven White, RHP, B- --> C
Melky Cabrera, OF, B- --> C
Bronson Sardinha, OF-3B, C+ --> C
Christian Garcia, RHP, C+ --> C+
Tyler Clippard, RHP, C+ --> B-
Abel Gomez, LHP, C+ --> C
Brett Smith, RHP, C+ --> C
Colter Bean, RHP, C+ --> C
Rudy Guillen, OF, C --> C
Jeff Marquez, RHP, C --> C+
Sean Henn, LHP, C --> C+
T.J Beam, RHP, C --> C

Erold Andrus, OF, C+ --> Rule-5
Eric Abreu, RHP, C+ --> C (Injured)
Jesse Hoover, RHP, C+ --> C (Injured)
Alex Graman, LHP, C --> Crap, free agency
Ramon Ramirez, RHP, C --> Traded
Chien-Ming Wang, RHP, B-
Robinson Cano, 2B, B-

I don't mind most of the progression, but Melky not being on the top 20 (and Colter Bean making it), as well as Clippard being a B- (despite John writing that he was a solid B+ around mid/late season)

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 5:34 PM EST 0 recs

Also

DeSalvo went from a C to a C+, and Tim Battle stayed as a C

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 5:36 PM EST up 0 recs

melky

Melky sucks. He can't hit. That's my opinion from having seen him play. It is also the shared opinion of two Major League general managers.

Clippard is a different matter. I thought he was a B+ last fall, but changed my mind to B- during the winter after I took a look at his fly ball tendencies.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 5:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Totally agree

Just watched the Yanks spring training game yesterday and even the announcers pretty much said the same thing. Saying he was grossly overmatched and maybe he could make it as a 4th OF. I think it was Michael Kay and Singlesauce.

by The Colonel on Mar 3, 2006 6:10 PM EST up 0 recs

re: Melky

by The Colonel on Mar 3, 2006 6:11 PM EST up 0 recs

I really have to disagree

He doesnt hit for enough power, and may have to move to a corner, but I cant agree with you. He has a very effective line drive swing and is very adept at hitting breaking balls. His numbers were far from great, but he was 20 in AA.

As for the other comment with Michael Kay, since when do we hold his opinion with any weight? Yesterday he talks about how Cabrera is overmatched when he goes 0-2. Today he went 4-5 with all 4 being line drives, and one a double. Tomorrow he'll be Joe Dimaggio.

by PooNani on Mar 3, 2006 6:49 PM EST up 0 recs

cabrera

I can't see him developing enough power to play a corner. He has trouble getting around on decent fastballs, at least when I've seen him.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 7:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Agreed about Michael Kay

Can't believe I used him as a reference. -10.

by The Colonel on Mar 3, 2006 8:51 PM EST up 0 recs

SO JOHN...

TELL US HOW YOU REALLY FEEL ABOUT HIM!!!

by TOLAXOR on Mar 4, 2006 9:24 AM EST up 0 recs

in defense of Melky!

The Kay/Singleton comments about him are out of context. Yeah, they said he was overmatched during his call up. He also had a couple of weeks of AAA under his belt and had been one of the younger players in the Eastern League. He was a 20 year pretty much right out of AA thrown into the most overheated rivalry in MLB playing centerfield in Fenway. There aren't too many prospects on any team's list that were going to do much better with that set of circumstances.

I saw a bit of him at Trenton last year and he was outplaying older players who are on other team's top 20 lists.

He had a nice season in the Domincan League this winter and while Kay/Singleton are discussing his misadventures last year, he's doing a nice job of taking full advantage of the opportunity to play this spring while Damon and Bernie are at the World Baseball thing.

Is he a star? No. Does he suck? Hardly. Will he have a career as a 4th outfielder type? Most likely.

by JoeSchlobotnik on Mar 5, 2006 9:26 AM EST up 0 recs

Tyler

Here are 4 21 year olds who pitched in Hi A last year
IP ERA K/9 BB/9
147.33    3.18    10.32    2.08
30.66    3.82    6.46    2.05
142.00    4.12    9.25    5.45
59.67    4.83    6.79    2.56

One is TC who got a B-

The other 3 are B+, B, B-

Try to assign the 4 ratings to the numbers. You'll be surprised.

Matthew Cohen If you can't measure it, it doesn't matter.

by matcohen on Mar 3, 2006 5:45 PM EST 0 recs

Hmm

#1 is Clippard. I'm pretty certain that #3 is Adam Loewen. #4 looks like it might be Adam Miller, who was hurt. #2 is a tough one, might be Edison Volquez before his promotion to Double A, going off of the mediocre ERA.

I'll need to think about 2 and 4 some more, though. I'm trying to do it without consulting statistics.

by mrkupe on Mar 3, 2006 6:25 PM EST up 0 recs

that means almost nothing

You need more than a short line of one year's worth of stats to grade a player. You have to look at health, past performance, age, etc.

by sabernar on Mar 3, 2006 6:39 PM EST up 0 recs

And

And stuff, which TC doesn't have. Of course there are exceptions, but guys without good stuff tend to get hammered no matter what their numbers were in the minors.

by abbreviatedman on Mar 3, 2006 9:11 PM EST up 0 recs

And and

In Hi A scouting reports matter more than numbers.

by abbreviatedman on Mar 3, 2006 9:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Stuff

do you know personally that Clippard has no stuff?

by 12to6 on Mar 3, 2006 9:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Saying...

... that he has "no stuff" was a simplification, I do confess, but he does not have the stuff to be a frontline starter. Most people think, rightly or wrongly, that he has the ceiling to be a solid number three, if everything goes right for him. A B- seems about right for that. I really look forward to seeing how he does in AA.

by abbreviatedman on Mar 4, 2006 1:51 AM EST up 0 recs

Andrus/Tabata

John, just wondering why you gave Elvis Andrus (SS - ATL) a B, and Jose Tabata a B+?

by brandnew on Mar 3, 2006 6:45 PM EST 0 recs

andrus

Because I was in a bad mood when I wrote up the Braves?

Seriously, it's because Tabata has a touch more power right now and his strikeout rate was much better than Andrus. However you can make a case for Andrus being a B+.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 7:02 PM EST up 0 recs

Hughes

So, in your own opinon, what do you expect outta Hughes? A future ace? A good #2? If Phil can go one season without any injuries, how much does his stock rise?

by Tabata Time on Mar 3, 2006 7:08 PM EST 0 recs

hughes

He puts in a full season he goes up to A-, maybe A.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 7:11 PM EST up 0 recs

DeSalvo

Do you think DeSalvo will be able to stick with an ML rotation as a #4-#5? Is he destined to be a one-two year pitcher or does he end up in the pen at some point?

by 12to6 on Mar 3, 2006 9:02 PM EST 0 recs

desalvo

I think he can be a 4/5 guy for a lot of teams. But he is a personal favorite.

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2006 9:05 PM EST 0 recs

Me too

Which is why I'm rooting for him and I hope he gets a shot! What do you think Clippard is missing that prevents him from being a legit #2? Is that what you view as his ceiling?

Thanks!

by 12to6 on Mar 3, 2006 9:14 PM EST up 0 recs

J. Brent Cox

Good to see JBC ranked near the top of the NY farm system. ESPN didn't even include him in their top 10 Yankees prospects, and I was worried he may have been injured.

by StickRat on Mar 3, 2006 10:38 PM EST 0 recs

Justin Christian

John, do you have any thoughts about Justin Christian? Obviously a 25 year old in high A isn't going to making any lists, but I think he's got a decent chance of being a useful utility guy in the majors, which'd be mighty good for a guy signed out of the frontier league.

by amol on Mar 4, 2006 1:18 AM EST 0 recs

Good call!!

Yeah, Justin Christian is serious talent. Only reason he's a low-level guy at age 25 is because he spent a few years in indi ball before the Yankees discovered him. Since then, he's proven he can hit -- .306/.371/.476 at A-class Tampa last season -- and his glove and speed have always been his bread-and-butter.

by StickRat on Mar 4, 2006 3:03 AM EST up 0 recs