I am a big Reyes supporter. I think he is one of those guys who has a greater impact than his numbers have shown, based on his extraordinary speed and solid defense.

His growth last year from the first half to the second half was 30 points of OBP. He hit less fly balls, more line drives and more ground balls, which is showing that he is learning to play to his strengths. He is becoming an excellent contact hitter, which should also benefit his speed game.

Of course, his OBP is low for a leadoff hitter, although I would argue that his baserunning ability would upgrade that number, if only slightly (BP did a piece on this). If he can get his OBP in the 340-350 range, he will be more than adequate to bat at the top of the order. I see no reason why he can't get his OBP to that level. I'm not sure if he'll develop much power based on his recent approach, but he does have pop in his bat. He's capable of being more than a slap hitter.

All in all, I think he and Wright will be tremendous on the left side of the infield for the rest of the decade.

If you take a look at Jose's numbers from last year, you'll notice it was VERY similar to the #s Carl Crawford put up in his first full season(2003):

Reyes 2005:
7 HR
58 RBI
14 2B
17 3B
60 SB
.273/.300/.386

Crawford 2003:
5 HR
54 RBI
18 2B
9 3B
55 SB
.281/.309/.362

and seeing how much Crawford has improved, I'd say we can expect the same from Reyes. I just don't see how people can be so pessimistic about Reyes after all the fine things he did last year.

I guess you have to watch Reyes everyday to know how good he really is. Of course if you just look at the stats you'll have a completely different outlook. Thankfully I will get to watch Reyes play every single day for the next 15 years and watch him become the best shortstop in Mets history alongside the best player in Mets history David Wright :)

that while Reyes has awesome upside, between his age and his tools, last year was disappointing. I would describe Reyes' 2005 as exciting, but he was also an out machine. To me, a player of Reyes' potential playing like he did last year is bad, and while I don't think Reyes will go the way of Corey Patterson, I think there's a lot of work to be done as well. I'm glad he's willing to do the work and raise his OBP, because if he improves that category of his play, he could really be something special.

I don't get to see Reyes play every day, but I know from experience and the way baseball really works that Reyes was a better than average major league shortstop last year at age 22, despite his horrid batting line. For Reyes to be a star caliber player, he merely needs to add about 20 points to his batting average.
 

The spit n' scratch guys are taking over the place!

By all objective offensive and defensive metrics, Reyes was not a very valuable player last year.  On the other hand, he was 22, and put up numbers that were not [em]too[/em] far below-average at the plate (well, pretty far, but not for a 22 year-old-- if those had been his MLEs and he was in AA, he'd be considered a pretty good prospect.)

He's on course, given all this, to be an average regular, probably, for several years.  That probably will make him the best SS in Mets history, and get him to a few All-Star games.  He seems unlikely to be as good as Furcal, and that's certainly his ceiling.

I still believe the biggest obstacle in the way of Reyes becoming a star are his hitting mechanics from the left side. I was down in Port St. Lucie last week and watched him take BP up close. He doesn't use his legs at all. He takes a wide stance and often doesn't step at all with his front foot when he swings. He just lifts the heel and puts it back down. Sometimes he does take a full step and that's when he can hit the ball into the gap or over the wall. That's usually on balls middle in. Outside pitches tend to end up as lazy pop flies to left field because he's not strong enough to get away with not using his legs.

With Reyes' speed and ability to make contact, he should be a .300 hitter. If someone can straighten him out, I think he'd be that and show some more power as well. He does display significant raw power on occasion, it just doesn't translate to games because of the way he hits. A shortstop who can run and field like Reyes and hit maybe .300/.335/.470 is star, so that's why I say mechanics are a bigger obstacle than even plate discipline.

As far as plate discipline goes, people want him to be something he's not. He'll probably develop more over time, but he's never going to walk a lot.  The Mets shouldn't try to force him to walk more. Either you live with what he is in the leadoff spot or you put him somewhere else in the batting order. When they did start emphasizing walks to him this year, he ended up just taking a lot of fastballs down the middle. That put him behind in the count constantly and therefore he saw more breaking balls.  I think the focus for Reyes should be on getting a pitch to hit, not necessarily drawing walks. He should be jumping on fastballs early in the count, not taking them.  That'll lead to fewer strikeouts, which means more balls in play.  With his speed, a lot of those are going to turn into hits and his OBP will go up anyway.

Is that when Reyes got on base last year, he scored 45.6% of the time.  That's better than anyone in the NL except for Rollins.  

While he did have a mediocre year in terms of average and OBP, anyone who watched the Mets last year would agree that he was the key to jumpstarting the offense.  

I would think that his second half improvement would show signs that he can raise his OBP to at least .320 to the .330 range.  

Also, he has every opportunity to be as good, if not better than Furcal.  During his first full year in the majors, he has shown more speed, power, and ability to drive runners in than Furcal did at the same age.  

Maybe it's just me, but I value the triple quite a bit.  17 is impressive at any age.  It's one of the most exciting plays in baseball.  I think if more of you watched him play (I live in Oregon, and am not a Mets fan so I have only see him on TV), instead of just looking at stats.  You would see one of the most exciting players in baseball.  

Am I wrong here? Is Furcal not a star?

before the mets fanboys jump all over me, i'd like to say this: i agree with them. reyes really is one of the most exciting players in baseball, and he sometimes can just take over a game. he's definitely fun to watch.

however, everything the statheads are saying is true also. he just makes way too many outs. and overall, he is not a productive player. the reason OBP is so important is not only because you need to get on base to score runs; even more than that, it's the fact that you need to avoid making outs so that your team can put up big innings. so the fact that reyes scored a high % of the times he reached base is nice, but it doesn't change the fact that he led the league in outs (by a lot!) and was therefore a significant drain on the offense.

finally--people (especially mets fans) should really stop talking about reyes and david wright like they the same caliber of player. they have about as much in common as albert pujols and yadier molina. wright is 22 and already about the third- or fourth-best player in baseball; reyes is also young but not yet good.

We have to be careful on where we see a player's additions to the team

Having an exciting player on your team is fantastic, but being exciting and being productive to run scoring are not necessarily the same thing.  

Personally, I think Reyes is overrated right now.  But if it's true that he's going to start taking more walks and work on being an actual leadoff man, then Mets fans should be excited.  

I don't care how many bases you steal, a .320 OBP (.300 lifetime) does not make you a star.  At all.  not even close.  

And my GOD, I've been hearing the "you have to see him play every day to understand how good he is" charade since I've been following sports.  What a crock.  That's just a way of saying "what he does is really cool but not necessarily productive".  The thing about baseball is you CAN measure everything a player does.  it's pretty spiffy.  Not everything is black and white, but it's close...

Reyes' OBP in the minors and his rookie year in the majors was always around .330, and that was the number everyone used as what he could improve from. Then the Mets decided to sign a "Gold Glove" SS from Japan and move Reyes to 2B, before he was hampered by injuries that were made worse when they brought in everyone including a hamstring specialist to change his running style. Art Howe also chose to leave him in a game in Montreal in 2004 after he aggravated a prior injury, because he needed to "suck it up and play hurt." Obviously you couldn't find a better place than Olympic Stadium to push a 21 year old. You'd probably be better off doing head-first sidings drills in a parking lot...

Last year everyone wanted him to be Vince Coleman, where he would just chop the ball into the ground and run, even though every scouting report on him cited his gap power as his biggest strength on the way up. So yeah, John once again has a reasonable outlook on things. It's scary to imagine the pressure that Reyes would be feeling if Wright hadn't come along, but still, just let the kid play...

A SS who is an average hitter (provided he's good defensively, of course, which some of the metrics say Reyes isn't)is a good player indeed, and will be an all-star on merit, not because he plays in New York.    

What SS have the Mets ever had who was better than the player I describe Reyes becoming?

Harrelson was always well below-average; OPS+ under 90 most years.  

Kevin Elster was really no good for the Mets, either.

That's not a swipe at the Mets, it's a statement of fact.

This isn't an aggressive justification, BTW, just a friendly clarification.

I, for one, am a believer in Reyes.  He was brought up at age 19 and has had a lot of injury hurdles to jump over that have hindered his development.  To say that the guy is not going to improve seems incredibly harsh.  He has all the raw skills.  His manager is a strong believer in the fundamentals and will push him to improve on his discipline.  Reyes himself seems to understand that more is going to be expected of him this year now that he has put the injuries behind him.  He understands his role and has the ability to execute.  I see no reason why he won't become a premier leadoff hitter.  To say that, at age 23, he will not improve his plate discipline seems silly.

was a REALLY late bloomer

and peaked at 35.

think he's around 42-43 now.