Free Agent Bargains

Alou's 41 years old, or will be by the middle of next season.  He's got bad hammies, bad knees, and bad calf muscles.  Sure, it's possible he keeps up the roll he's been on the last 3 years and OPS's to the tune of .919 for the Mets (over his career averages, BTW).  Or, it's possible he reverts back to the player he was with the Cubs, where he was hitting for less power and getting on base less frequently.  

How do you explain his 2002 and 2003 lines?  Did he find the fountain of youth the last 3 years?  Can we reasonably expect him to keep up that level of production?  Or, is it more likely that he'll revert back to his expected level of production, as a hitter on the downslope of his career?  We'll know the answer next year, but I wouldn't have paid $8.5M (including the buyout) to find out.

Plus, in the clubhouse, no one's going to shake Alou's hand.

For example, take his first half this year.  90 Ks in 110.1 IPs, as you say.  Not great, but not bad either.  Works out to 7.3 Ks/9.  Not what I'd call great strikeout ability.  (In the second half, he struck out 66 in 76.1 IPs, which translates to a 7.78 K/9.)  And that's about where Meche has been for most of his Seattle career.  He's posted K/9 rates of 4.94, 6.30, 6.28, 6.98, 5.21, and 7.52 (in 2006).  Now, looking at that charitably, I guess you could say that he's broken through in 2006, but a 7.5/9 K rate for a 28-year old in his sixth full season doesn't move me, even a guy who's missed as much time as Meche has (to an injury that as recently as a few years ago was considered the death knell of pitcher injuries).

But the mediocre K rates are only half the story for Meche, and the better half, as it were.  Meche has a command problem.  He's never been able to throw quality strikes (even in the first half of 2006, his K/BB rate was 2/1).  That also makes him very hittable--101 Hs in those 110.1 IPs pre-ASB IPs in 2006, and he's had similar numbers in other years too.

Put it all together, and what do you have?  A league average pitcher who doesn't strike out a ton of people and walks too many.  When he's not walking them, he's throwing them nice fat strikes that are geting poked all over and out of the park, even in Safeco.  And he's not even a lefty.

He's definitely not a #2/#3 in my book, he's a #4 or more likely a #5.  Now, is it possible that Meche will breakout out for someone next year?  Sure, it's possible.  If he gets his command issues worked out at age 29 and keeps the K rate at or over 7.5/9, he could be decent.  At most, I'd sign him to some sort of a Wade Miller style deal and hope for the best.  But at $8M/year for 3 years?  I just don't see it.