Atlanta Braves Top 20 Prospects

by John Sickels on Feb 25, 2005 1:15 PM EST in News Comment 39 comments

Andy Marte, 3B, A
Kyle Davies, RHP, B+
Jacob Stevens, LHP, B+
Jeff Francoeur, OF, B+
Brian McCann, C, B+
Chuck James, LHP, B-
Anthony Lerew, RHP, B-
Ryan Langerhans, OF, B-
Kelly Johnson, OF, C+
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, C+
Chris Vines, RHP, C+
Luis Atilano, RHP, C+
Macay McBride, LHP, C+
Brayan Pena, C, C+
Kevin Barry, RHP, C+
Wilson Betemit, 3B, C+
J.C. Holt, 2B, C+
Martin Prado, 2B, C+
Blaine Boyer, RHP, C
Bill McCarthy, OF, C

This list would look a lot better if Dan Meyer and Jose Capellan were still around. As it is, I think the Braves farm system is still quite deep. Some of these grades may be controversial. I rate Jeff Francouer as number four, while many people (notably Baseball America) rate him as number one. I love his athleticism and tools, and he's made substantial progress turning his tools into skills, but he still has a ways to go on the plate discipline front. I really can't see how he rates behind Marte. Marte is only three months older and has already shown he can handle Double-A.

Of the other top hitters, I think McCann is significantly underrated by many. Kelly Johnson is also a candidate for a Langerhans-style improvement this year. Wilson Betemit. . .who knows?

As usual, the Braves have many lives arms around. Davies is a stud, while lefties Stevens and James both deserve more attention than they have received thus far. Both Vines and Atilano are well-positioned to take major steps forward this year.

Two shortstops not on the list deserve mention. Tony Pena Jr. and Luis Hernandez both get props as strong defensive players, but at this point I don't think either of them are very impressive on offense. Hernandez is the younger of the two at age 21 and has the better chance to develop, but until his bat comes around I see him as a Grade C guy. Beware of overhype.

There are a lot of extremely well-informed and highly-intelligent Braves fans out there. Feel free to point out problems with the list.

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Comments

interesting

so Meyer is an A- but Davies is a B+

I thought that woulda been reversed, given that Davies was an untouchable in the Hudson trade (IIRC).

Anywho, thats just fine by me, as an A's fan. I'd take Davies over Meyer tho.

Here's hoping you are right Mr. Sickles! =)

by jayho on Feb 25, 2005 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Davies

I don't know much about Davies. Can someone tell me more about him and what his projected ceiling is?

Sickels, this site rules!!!

by count sutton on Feb 25, 2005 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

re: davies

i too would like to know more about davies. what is his ceiling/projection? what are the worries/concerns about him?

"Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte

by michigan moxie on Feb 25, 2005 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

holt

I don't know why Betemit is even still on the list. I am really interested to know more about JC Holt. He was one of the rare college picks and was supposed to be near major league ready last year. Is he playing 2B or CF in the braves system?

by The kid on Feb 25, 2005 1:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Holt

Holt plays second base, Esquivel was an outfielder/DH last year, and Betemit is out of options, so he has to make the big club this spring (I think he will as a utility infielder - it's him, Nick Green, who is confined to 2B AFAIK, and Pete Orr, who had a Charles Thomas-like out of nowhere 2004 at Richmond, fighting for two spots. Last year, Orr had a high average, not a lotta walks, a little power, and good speed.).

by drewdat on Feb 25, 2005 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

betemit

betemit is on the list because he's still young. obviously he's not the superstar that everyone thought he would be, but he stilll has a shot. If The Braves don't re-sign Furcal, Betemit may get a chance at the starting SS job in 2006. The Braves don't have the dough to sign anyone big (esp. if they extend Hudson), and the SS prospects are a long ways a way.
I'm also curious about Matt Esquivel. Seemed like he was crushing the ball when he wasn't getting himself into trouble. Does he have a position? 1B?

by sandgnat on Feb 25, 2005 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Braves don't have the dough?

The Braves are owned by TimeWarner, so they have the dough, they just aren't allowed to spend it.

by sabernar on Feb 25, 2005 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

James

Curious if James projects as an end of the rotation starter or lefty specialist in the show.

Also would like to know your thoughts on Holt.

by TCapone30 on Feb 25, 2005 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You're right John

About McCann. He is vastly underrated. The kind of prospect he is: an athletic lefty power hitting catcher is quite special. I wish the Dodgers had him.

by smt on Feb 25, 2005 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

McCann

I was hoping we could somehow get McCann in the trade as well. That was before we got Barton though. If we got McCann, that would have been the best trade ever.

by ohad on Feb 25, 2005 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

McCann

Yeah, I'm all over the McCann bandwagon. Seems like the only people that are high on him are the BA peeps who had him as their first team minor league catcher. Look at his numbers at Myrtle Beach (which if you don't know is death to hitters) and he put up a good average with a few homers and good plate disicpline numbers. I love this kid. Don't know why any one else isn't jumping on board cept us fans

by yondaime4 on Feb 25, 2005 9:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

mccann

The park effects should be in McCann's favor this year. I think he is going to break through into the mainstream of prospectdom.

by John Sickels on Feb 25, 2005 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

how so, John?

my reading is that all of the Braves minor league parks are pitcher's parks...

from what I get from BA's park factors the last couple of years, anyway.

they're all in relatively pitcher friendly leagues, too...though the friendliness factor is...er...some higher, some a bit lower...on the scale

by pure bull on Feb 26, 2005 3:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

McCann

If McCann is in AA (which I think is likely), the park effects may not be in his favor. If I had to guess, the new park on Pearl will be less of a hitters' park than Greenville, simply because of the elevation difference.

-- MWE

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Feb 26, 2005 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Meyer vs. Davies

I think Meyer is the more major-league ready at this point than Davies, although Davies is very close. The Braves obviously thought that Davies had the higher cieling, but were very high on Meyer as well. I don't think they liked Cappellan as much.

by smt on Feb 25, 2005 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

TP Jr.

He can really play SS, and I think he's got the tools to become a passable hitter; when he did make contact he was able to sting the ball pretty well. But he's not ever going to get there with a 7:1 K/BB ratio. At best, he's going to be Furcal lite.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Feb 25, 2005 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

McCann

One thing to remember is that Myrtle Beach is a gack-awful place to try to hit. The park sits nearly at sea level, and there is almost never any breeze there; everything hit to the outfield just sits there and dies. I usually go to a couple of games a year there (it's a nice Class A park) and I think I've seen exactly one home run hit.

Greenville, on the other hand, has been a pretty good home run park. Of course, McCann's not going to get to play there this year, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see his power numbers jump. 15 longballs for the Pelicans is pretty d****d good.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Feb 25, 2005 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

same sort of question I asked John up

the thread...

understanding that some parks are worse to hit in than others...

aren't the Braves' minor league parks pitcher's parks? All of them?

And the leagues they're in...aren't they a bit better (or a lot better, as in the Southern League) for pitchers than they are for hitters?

by pure bull on Feb 26, 2005 3:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Braves' parks

Greenville wasn't a pitchers' park, but the rest of them favor the pitcher to one extent or the other. Obviously, I have no idea what the new park in Mississippi will be like.

As far as the leagues go - the Southern League is probably the worst AA league for hitters, the Carolina League is worse than the California League for high-A but better than the Florida State League, and the IL is worse than the PCL. The SAL is a better league for hitters than the Midwest League in low-A.

Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org

by MikeE on Feb 26, 2005 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice list John

I'm looking for big years from both Vines and Atilano this season in Rome - hopefully they will do as well as Jake Stevens did there in 2004. Holt is playing 2B for the Braves, and it will be a good fight this season to see who establishes themself as the top 2B between him and Martin Prado.

I'm not even remotely sold on Tony Pena Jr., and would take Luis Hernandez over him right now. Granted, neither are great hitters, but I think Hernandez at least has a chance to turn out passable at the plate as he moves up.

I'm looking at Davies being up around June 1st. I've never been a big Horacio Ramirez guy, and we aren't sure yet on how Hampton's knee is going to do, so Davies is certainly going to have some opportunities this year.

Atlanta Braves Minor League News and Notes: **No Pepper**

by nopepper on Feb 25, 2005 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Davies

Davies is usually 91-93 with his fastball, going higher at times, with a great change up (Bill Shanks compares it to Glavine, but be warned that every Braves prospect is a future star with Shanks), and a usable curve.

He reminds me of Kevin Millwood really. A good reliable #2.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 25, 2005 3:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

baseball cards

John, I can see from your photos, that you are a baseball card collector. Nice job pulling out the Marte Rookie card. I bought the same one myself. You just made the sight better.

by mrmetaa on Feb 25, 2005 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

love that card

I have that in chrome....started collecting minor league cards in 2002 and it's a lot of fun collecting cards of my favorite prospects

by UCFKnights on Feb 25, 2005 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Francoeur

I hate to be a jerk, but Jeff's last name is properly spelled "Francoeur". You're hardly the only one to make that mistake, but I want to start spreading the word, one site at a time.

Great list. What do you think about Chuck James' age vs. level, and did that impact his grade?

by boisvert42 on Feb 25, 2005 4:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thanks

Spelling corrected.

James was 22 in the Sally League....not young but not horribly old. It had enough of an impact to move him from, say, Grade B to B-.

by John Sickels on Feb 25, 2005 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Betemit

I wrote Wilson Betemit off some time ago, but when it came time for me to write him up this offseason I came to the conclusion that he's still a worthwhile prospect. His AAA line was .278/.336/.466, which if he can actually play shortstop is more than enough to hold a job. If nothing else, he'd be an interesting reserve infielder, even though he doesn't have the typical UIF skillset. He needs another year in the minors, but he's out of options.

by Mac Thomason on Feb 25, 2005 4:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Links

I don't know if this would be a whole lot more work for you, John, but it might be useful if you linked to prospects' stats when you do your top organizational rankings.

by jhelfgott on Feb 25, 2005 5:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

stats

I'm not sure how to do that right now, but I will look into it.

by John Sickels on Feb 25, 2005 6:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmm

perhaps using sports-wired?

by smt on Feb 25, 2005 7:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Curious

All things being equal, John, would you take Marte over David Wright and B.J. Upton?

by Jurgen on Feb 26, 2005 12:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

no

by John Sickels on Feb 26, 2005 8:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Luis Hernandez

Great Site! Luis Hernandez may not have had great offensive numbers at the Beach in 2004, but the impressive thing is that his numbersf were much better than they were at the A level. He is still a young player and he does not turn 21 until June.

by hisslk on Feb 26, 2005 1:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Marte

Is Marte still an A prospect if he moves to a corner OF position?

by splitter on Feb 26, 2005 1:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

the question

really..would be..

why wouldn't he be? fine plate disicipline, short power stroke that projects to 30+ HR a year, obviously has the arm for outfield, you'd think...

(shrug)

will it matter if he does .280 35HR with 80 walks in 150 games at 3B or LF or RF?

Sure, he's more valuable to a team at third base if he does that...but...if he really realizes the upside potential...he's gonna be a hell of an offensive player no matter what the position..

A or B+...that's just a means of...gradiation. Eh?

by pure bull on Feb 26, 2005 3:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs