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MOD Indians #2: Organizational Asset Assessment - Pitchers

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MLB Pitching

The rotation is topped by a true ace in Corey Kluber. Slotted behind are Carlos Carrasco (the 2014 AL's 5th best "SP" per this mock scouting director's FaBIO evaluation system), Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer. Salazar and Bauer both show biases towards loud forms of contact, with Salazar's better Control vs K profile rendering him more capable of offsetting that loud contact with non-batted-ball outcomes. Contractually, the Indians are in good shape with the trio of Kluber, Carrasco, and Salazar under control for several years at reasonable or better salaries. When healthy, southpaw T.J. House has shown above-average ability to throw strikes and induce groundballs, so there's potential back of the rotation value in slotting a rehabilitated House behind Bauer for at least the near-term. A rehabbing Josh Tomlin lurks on standby.

Cody Allen's rough start to 2015 serves as a reminder as to just how volatile the performance of a flyballing reliever can be. Bryan Shaw is a solid all-around performer. Zach McAlister has the power profile to gradually assume higher-leverage work (though his 2014 MiLB data does suggest "MLB SP"). The future of left side of the bullpen seems murky, as it does with many a club.

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MiLB Pitching

Let's begin by taking a look at how the Indians' 2015 pitchers performed in MiLB during 2014, per their FaBIO numbers.

Abbreviations appearing in the tables that follow include: OVR (Overall Performance Rating), CTL (Control Rating), K (Strikeout Rating), BAT (Batted Ball Profile Rating), GB (Groundball Rating), IFFB (Infield Flyball Rating), LD AVOID (Line Drive Avoidance Rating), OFFB AVOID (Outfield Flyball Avoidance Rating), Pull OFFB AVOID (Pull-Third Outfield Flyball Avoidance Rating), YOUTH (Youth Rating). In each case the pitcher is being compared to their league peers, namely starting-biased pitchers or relief-biased pitchers. 100 is the best possible rating, with 0 worst, 50 league-average, 84 "plus" (plus are better numbers are highlighted in green), and 16 "minus" (red numbers).

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Starting-Biased Pitchers

Again, let's start with the 2014 numbers.

2014IndiansMiLBSP_zpsg7ual3te.0.jpg

Prior to the start of 2015 MiLB play, I performed an exhaustive review of pitcher scouting reports and formulated a long rankings list of pitching prospects with a keen eye as to how each of them were rating on the FaBIO system. Mitch Brown was the only Indians' arm to crack the Top 100 Pitchers. Luis Lugo and Justus Sheffield just snuck into the Top 200. This relative dearth of higher end pitching prospects was the motivation for my volunteering to lead the Indians in the mock draft (and that they had the draft picks available to address that weakness).

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In the past week I compiled the FaBIO ratings for 2015 play (thru May 17 play) for each of the Tribe affiliate's AA, A+ and A leagues, and the table below shows how the starting-biased pitchers of those clubs rated.

2015IndiansMiLBSPMay172_zps1xcorsqj.0.jpg

As you can surmise, Sheffield is doing phenomenally well in posting a plus K Rating and a sustainable plus BAT Rating while being younger than 99% of league starters. Lefty Lugo has gotten to a nice start with some small improvements noted in his batted ball profile. Brown continues to elitely induce grounders but has struggled to find his K pitch. Young AA southpaw Shawn Morimando has shown a promising tick upward in his K Rating. Cody Anderson is off quickly in repeating AA though I question whether he will be a good enough inducer of weak contact to survive as an MLB SP who projects to be subpar at the strikeout. 2014 prep draftees RHP Grant Hockin and LHP Sam Hentges have yet to make an appearance in 2015 and figure to be ticketed for the short-season New York Penn League affiliate.

At present, I'd offer that they well may have a top-shelf prospect in the making in the southpaw Sheffield, though he's a good distance away from the majors and we'll need to see how his performance and scouting variables hold up over the longer course of the season.

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Relief-Biased Pitchers

The 2014 reliever numbers turned out as below.

2014IndiansMiLBRP_zpszopsbz7t.0.jpg

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The 2015 AA and lower ratings are as below.

2015IndiansMiLBRPMay17_zpsvcl8qyie.0.jpg

2014 16th-round righty Feyereisen seems a rather legitimate prospect, riding a 94 mph fastball and slider to a 100 OVR in 2015 after posting a post-draft 99 OVR. Relative unknown righty Josh Martin has answered a strong 2014 (91 OVR) with a stronger 2015 (95 OVR). The AAA staff features 3 probable big league contributors in righty Shawn Armstrong and lefties Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto, plus a handful of MLB cup of coffee or depth types (C.C. Lee, Bryan Price, etc.).

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Draft Forecast: Pitching

The farm system would benefit from an infusion of top-shelf starting pitching prospects via the 2015 June draft, likely involving both collegiate and prep selections. The scouting department figures to target a few fast-moving big league relief prospects with solid or better batted ball profiles and may pop one of them early if they fall further than anticipated come draft time.

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