Joey Gallo has been the talk of the MinorLeagueBall.com for the entire year. I must admit that it was quite a ride through the Carolina League. The numbers he put up were amazing and so off the charts that it has led to a lot of question. Did he improve his K% that much? How much of the improved BB% is just him being pitched around? And overall just how much has he improved?
Like most of you, I don’t get to see most prospects every year so I depend on others first hand observations and the stats which can lie. I will get to see Gallo myself around the 4th of July and I am any not kind of scout, but I will let you know what I see with my own eye. I decide to break down Gallo’s Carolina League stat and the following is what I found.
First off, It is a small sample size, I know that it is a cop out for anybody who don’t agree with the end results. I not saying this is perfect but it has helped me over the past few years when examining prospects, and sometimes it works better that others.
So what stats am I going to look at here?? I want to know how Gallo did against the most successful pitchers in the Carolina League this year. Do these stats support his K% and BB%? I am going to look at Gallo’s stats in games started by pitchers that posted a ERA under 3.00 for the season and has at least 7 starts.
I found 8 games that met these requirements, in a full season I usually find about 12-15 games that meet these requirements. The combined stat lines below are for these games and his Carolina League totals.
AB H TB HR BB K BA OBP SLG BB% K%
028 08 013 01 05 09 .285 .373 .464 15.15 27.27
189 61 139 21 51 64 .323 .463 .735 20.73 26.01
There is a couple of thing that jump out at me here. First K% didn’t change much at all. The drop from a K% of 36.83 in the 2013 seems to be real. The BB% of 15.15, though doesn’t seem to match up as well as his season stat being down 5.58%. This supports the reports that he is being pitched around by lesser pitchers in the league, but is still an improvement over the 10.71% from 2013. The big difference is the drop in SLG(only 2 extra-base hits). I see this quite often with only using starts against successful pitcher, if these pitcher were giving up many extra-base hits they would not be as successful and just one HR could change that stat to .571.
In conclusion, I can see improvement in the stats across the board, but I don’t expect the huge jump in BA and BB% to be as great as his season Carolina League stat line suggests about half is more believable. Although the K% seems not to be just a mirage.
I don't know how to insert a chart so the stats above are as good as I could get them.