FanPost

Organizing the knocks on top draft prospects.

This thread is going to look at the reasons not to draft a player in this draft. Not in any order though the first two are the top two and the first four are my top four.

Tyler Beede - Does not throw strikes enough with his fastball and curveball. Has had at least 3 deliveries in the past year, though in fairness each is significantly cleaner than the last. Did not have the season expected of him.

Carlos Rodon - Whispers of shoulder pain in 2013 and maybe 2014 have followed him, arguably strenuous usage, and an unathletic body give him plenty of injury flags.

Brady Aiken - Arguably a guy who will not hold his spring velocity consistently into pro ball as he works on some things in his delivery. HS pitcher is the second riskiest kind of pick. I have some suspicion he's 88-91 initially, and is not as finished a product as advertised.

Austin Jackson - HS catcher is the first riskiest kind of pick, and it is the only place he projects as a superstar talent. If you were waiting for a white Gary Sanchez before you got into that kind of prospect, this would be your guy. That isn't a reason not to draft him THO, will make a better effort to limit tangents.

Tyler Kolek - HS pitcher is the second riskiest kind of pick at the top. Needs to figure out seconary options, I recommend the splliter/changeup for him as well as the various fastballs.

Jeff Hoffman - Meh mechanics and already injured pitcher.

Erik Fedde - Pre-injured pitcher

Michael Conforto - Not much defensive value as a prospect, not as high upside as other recent top college bats.

Bradley Zimmer - Power and probably a tweener defensive OFer

Aaron Nola - Arguably not enough fastball and mediocre breaking ball.

Kyle Freeland - Mechanics flag hint that he may not carry his spring velocity into pro ball.

Trea Turner - Like Beede, did not have the season expected of him. Injured his foot last year, knocking his most elite tool down a peg.

Max Pentecost - Might be a guy getting boosted by a weak draft.

Newcomb - No name school (though it produced Jeff Bagwell) and competition, had some injury as a freshman.

Beede, Rodon, and Kolek are the only guys in BA's top 16 with truly power stuff and mechanics at their best. Toussaint can be taught, Holmes is decent mechanically but not big or projectable as a HS pitcher, both carry the typical HS pitcher knocks to different but still high degrees.

Feel free to add...Michael Kopech is a HS pitcher and has weird, deliberate mechanics...Cameron Varga is almost 20 and has an injury history...Keaton McKinney doesn't really have a breaking ball...Kyle Schwarber isn't actually a catcher...Nick Burdi couldn't start in college...

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