Alright, so today is the big day. The Indians have 4 picks in the first two rounds, thanks to compensation from Ubaldo Jimenez going to Baltimore and a competitive balance pick. This includes three of the first 38 picks. They have six picks in the first four rounds. Here is how the bonuses stack up for those six picks:
|Round||Pick||Slot Bonus||Slot Bonus +5%|
Here is a table that shows how the Indians have drafted over the past five years:
|Cleveland Draft Results 2009-2013|
|1st Round % HS||40%|
|1st Round % College||60%|
|2nd Round % HS||50%|
|2nd Round % College||50%|
|3rd Round % HS||40%|
|3rd Round % College||60%|
|4th round % HS||20%|
|4th round % College||80%|
|% Prep Bats||44%|
|% College Bats||56%|
|% Prep Arms||30%|
|% College Arms||70%|
|1st Round % HS Arms||0%|
|1st Round % HS Bats||40%|
|1st Round % College Arms||40%|
|1st Round % College Bats||20%|
|2nd Round % HS Arms||50%|
|2nd Round % HS Bats||0%|
|2nd Round % College Arms||0%|
|2nd Round % College Bats||50%|
|3rd Round % HS Arms||20%|
|3rd Round % HS Bats||20%|
|3rd Round % College Arms||60%|
|3rd Round % College Bats||0%|
|4th round % HS Arms||0%|
|4th round % HS Bats||20%|
|4th round % College Arms||40%|
|4th round % College Bats||40%|
They tend to draft college players over high school players at close to a 2:1 ratio. However, given the strength of this draft being prep arms, I will lean more towards a 1:1 ratio. Their evenly split on bats and arms, so I will aim for three of each. Of their pitchers taken, they tend to draft college arms twice as often as prep arms. Although, given the high school pitching talent, I may decide to go with two prep arms and only one college arm. Prep bats and college bats are pretty even, so I will aim for one each, and save one for BPA.
With the first pick, at pick 21, I want to look at a bat to take. The top tier college arms should be gone by then, and the difference in quality between an arm at 21 and an arm at 31 is much smaller than the difference in the quality of bats between those two picks. I suspect there will be a run on bats in the 15-30 range of picks, so if we want a good one, we will have to take it at 21.
At 31 and 38, I am looking to grab at least one high school arm, and possibly two, depending on who else is available. The reason being is there are some pretty good college arms on my board for the third and fourth round. And I think I should be able to pick up a good bat in the second round. Based on my own draft board, there should be some really good high school pitchers available at picks 31 and 38. If I don't go high school arms with both of these picks, I will look to grab a college bat with one of them.
Looking at my board, there should be some good bats available to pick from with the second round pick, pick 61. And there should be quite a few good college arms available in the third and fourth round. Right now, I am looking at college players in the third and fourth (one bat and one arm), assuming I take a high school bat, two high school arms, and a college bat in the first four picks. In the third round, we have pick 97, with a slot bonus of $539,600, with a plus 5% of $566,580. That should be plenty to sign a college player of our choosing. If we take a risky/expensive guy with an earlier pick, we could always go cheap senior sign here.
On my draft board the best prospects that should be available in the third are college arms, and in the fourth it is split between college arms and high school bats. We'll see how this plays out. I will post my top five in the comments about five picks before our turn. Please stick around to discuss this with me, and throw out any names you like!