FanPost

Phillies MOD #3 - Candidates for Round 1, 7th Overall Pick


Our Decisions Sciences department has completed its processing of scouting ratings and performance data of the projected first round draftees. That exercise and probability analysis involving the first 6 selections of the draft leaves 6 position players and 5 pitchers likely in play for the organization's 1st selection at the 7th overall spot.

One new development that has transpired since we last met is that our general manager and ownership have discussed the financial ramifications of what is left to Ryan Howard's contract and they have given us permission to draft a first baseman who could conceivably replace Howard as soon as the middle of the 2016 season, at which point Howard will be owed $12M for the remainder of that season with a $10M buyout due for 2017.

The table below shows how the 6 in-consideration position players grade out internally according to scouting reports, performance analysis, and projection modeling (a typical 20-to-80 scale, with 50 as big-league average and above 50 beating average). The projected selection window excludes the possibility of an underslot arrangement with a drafting team.

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The table below shows how the 5 in-consideration pitchers grade out internally as starting pitcher prospects according to scouting reports, performance analysis, and projection modeling.

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Given the above internal evaluations of the candidates, the state of the (real-world) Phillies' farm system, and our flexibility to take any of them either at or up to $700K below slot (if they are projected to go later and are not receiving much attention from clubs picking immediately in the handful of slots after us), who should the Phillies select with the 7th overall pick in the MinorLeagueBall mock draft of May 31st?

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