FanPost

2009-2013 MLB Team Draft Analysis (or EYWTKAHYTDBWTATA)

John just announced the beginning of the community mock draft season here at Minor League Ball. Last year, I put together a massive spreadsheet outlining the results of all 30 MLB teams in the first four rounds over the past five years. I have decided to update the spreadsheet this year. It is split into three graphs below.

I want to be clear, this just shows how each team has tended to draft over a five year period in the first four rounds. I would focus more on the total population data for each team to identify specific trends, especially as they compare to league averages. Looking at these total populations, which range from 19 to 37 picks, you can make some assumptions:

Anything in the 40-60% range, is pretty much a coin toss. Anything between 20-40% and 60-80% shows a possible pattern. And anything lower than 20% or higher than 80% means there is a pretty strong pattern in how that team drafts. For example, the Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays both have used about 3 out of every 4 of their picks in the first four rounds on bats, while most teams clump around 50%. You can expect that the majority of their picks will be bats. On the opposite end, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Minnesota Twins use almost 3 out of every 4 picks on pitchers. You can expect that the majority of their picks will be arms.

As for the round-specific numbers, outside of the first round, anything short of the 0-20%/80-100% realm is probably too close to be definitive. I would use the overall numbers in table 3, to look at the mix of college and prep bats and arms. Looking at that data, you see that the Miami Marlins have used 9 out of 10 bats picked on high school draftees. In fact, Colin Moran was the first college bat they had picked in the first four rounds since 2007. The Washington Nationals are the exact opposite - if they pick a bat, it is a college bat almost 9 out of 10 times.

Anyway, all that and so much more is available in the tables below. The most valuable data is in Table1 (especially the first five columns), and Table 2. Table 4 shows MLB averages, which is valuable if you want to see how your team stacks up to the league as a whole in certain draft tendencies. Table 3 is a more in-depth breakdown of each rounds pick mix - some may find it useful, or at least interesting. Others not so much.

With all that said, here is EVERYTHING you wanted to know about how your team drafts, but were to afraid to ask:

Table 1: Level of drafted players, in total and by round (2009-2013)
Team Total picks High School College Bats Arms 1st round 1st Round % HS 1st Round % College 2nd round 2nd Round % HS 2nd Round % College 3rd round 3rd Round % HS 3rd Round % College 4th round 4th round % HS 4th round % College
Arizona 28 46% 54% 50% 50% 12 42% 58% 6 50% 50% 5 40% 60% 5 60% 40%
Atlanta 20 30% 70% 55% 45% 5 40% 60% 5 0% 100% 5 40% 60% 5 40% 60%
Baltimore 20 45% 55% 50% 50% 6 83% 17% 4 50% 50% 5 20% 80% 5 20% 80%
Boston 27 44% 56% 48% 52% 12 33% 67% 5 40% 60% 5 80% 20% 5 40% 60%
Chicago (N) 22 36% 64% 45% 55% 7 43% 57% 5 60% 40% 5 40% 60% 5 0% 100%
Chicago (A) 24 29% 71% 38% 63% 7 29% 71% 6 50% 50% 6 0% 100% 5 40% 60%
Cincinnati 24 33% 67% 50% 50% 9 33% 67% 5 80% 20% 5 20% 80% 5 0% 100%
Colorado 27 37% 63% 59% 41% 10 40% 60% 6 67% 33% 6 17% 83% 5 20% 80%
Cleveland 19 37% 63% 47% 53% 5 40% 60% 4 50% 50% 5 40% 60% 5 20% 80%
Detroit 20 25% 75% 40% 60% 5 40% 60% 5 20% 80% 5 20% 80% 5 20% 80%
Houston 24 46% 54% 46% 54% 8 63% 38% 5 60% 40% 6 33% 67% 5 20% 80%
Kansas City 20 40% 60% 40% 60% 6 17% 83% 4 25% 75% 5 100% 0% 5 20% 80%
Los Angeles (A) 25 44% 56% 36% 64% 11 73% 27% 3 33% 67% 6 17% 83% 5 20% 80%
Los Angeles (N) 22 41% 59% 50% 50% 6 50% 50% 6 50% 50% 5 0% 100% 5 60% 40%
Miami 22 68% 32% 55% 45% 6 67% 33% 5 20% 80% 6 100% 0% 5 80% 20%
Milwaukee 26 38% 62% 42% 58% 9 22% 78% 7 86% 14% 5 20% 80% 5 20% 80%
Minnesota 26 31% 69% 31% 69% 10 50% 50% 6 17% 83% 5 0% 100% 5 40% 60%
New York (N) 22 45% 55% 55% 45% 6 67% 33% 5 60% 40% 6 33% 67% 5 20% 80%
New York (A) 22 64% 36% 68% 32% 7 71% 29% 6 67% 33% 4 50% 50% 5 60% 40%
Oakland 22 50% 50% 73% 27% 7 57% 43% 5 20% 80% 5 60% 40% 5 60% 40%
Philadelphia 23 61% 39% 70% 30% 5 100% 0% 7 57% 43% 6 67% 33% 5 20% 80%
Pittsburgh 23 52% 48% 48% 52% 8 38% 63% 5 100% 0% 5 20% 80% 5 60% 40%
St. Louis 27 37% 63% 59% 41% 12 33% 67% 5 60% 40% 5 40% 60% 5 20% 80%
San Diego 29 52% 48% 55% 45% 12 67% 33% 7 57% 43% 5 0% 100% 5 60% 40%
San Francisco 21 24% 76% 57% 43% 6 50% 50% 5 40% 60% 5 0% 100% 5 0% 100%
Seattle 24 42% 58% 67% 33% 7 43% 57% 5 40% 60% 7 71% 29% 5 0% 100%
Tampa Bay 34 65% 35% 74% 26% 17 65% 35% 7 57% 43% 5 80% 20% 5 60% 40%
Texas 29 66% 34% 52% 48% 13 69% 31% 6 67% 33% 5 60% 40% 5 60% 40%
Toronto 37 73% 27% 27% 73% 17 71% 29% 8 100% 0% 7 71% 29% 5 40% 60%
Washington 21 14% 86% 38% 62% 7 14% 86% 4 0% 100% 5 20% 80% 5 20% 80%

Table 2: Type of player picked, positional breakdown % (2009-2013)
Team % Bats % Prep Bats % College Bats % C % 1B % 2B % 3B % SS % OF % Arms % Prep Arms % College Arms % LHP % RHP
Arizona 50% 71% 29% 7% 7% 7% 14% 14% 50% 50% 21% 79% 14% 86%
Atlanta 55% 36% 64% 18% 0% 0% 27% 27% 27% 45% 22% 78% 33% 67%
Baltimore 50% 70% 30% 20% 20% 0% 10% 30% 20% 50% 30% 70% 10% 90%
Boston 48% 62% 38% 23% 0% 15% 15% 8% 38% 52% 29% 71% 21% 79%
Chicago (N) 45% 40% 60% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 50% 55% 33% 67% 33% 67%
Chicago (A) 38% 33% 67% 11% 11% 11% 0% 11% 56% 63% 27% 73% 20% 80%
Cincinnati 50% 42% 58% 17% 0% 8% 17% 17% 42% 50% 25% 75% 17% 83%
Colorado 59% 44% 56% 13% 6% 6% 13% 13% 50% 41% 27% 73% 36% 64%
Cleveland 47% 44% 56% 11% 0% 11% 11% 22% 44% 53% 30% 70% 20% 80%
Detroit 40% 38% 63% 25% 13% 0% 38% 0% 25% 60% 17% 83% 25% 75%
Houston 46% 45% 55% 0% 9% 0% 18% 27% 45% 54% 46% 54% 8% 92%
Kansas City 40% 63% 38% 25% 0% 13% 25% 13% 25% 60% 33% 67% 50% 50%
Los Angeles (A) 36% 78% 22% 0% 11% 33% 0% 11% 44% 64% 25% 75% 44% 56%
Los Angeles (N) 50% 55% 45% 9% 18% 9% 18% 9% 36% 50% 27% 73% 45% 55%
Miami 55% 92% 8% 8% 8% 17% 8% 17% 50% 45% 40% 60% 50% 50%
Milwaukee 42% 45% 55% 18% 18% 0% 9% 9% 45% 58% 33% 67% 7% 93%
Minnesota 31% 50% 50% 13% 0% 38% 13% 13% 25% 69% 22% 78% 28% 72%
New York (N) 55% 42% 58% 17% 8% 17% 0% 25% 33% 45% 50% 50% 10% 90%
New York (A) 68% 73% 27% 13% 0% 13% 27% 13% 40% 32% 43% 57% 29% 71%
Oakland 73% 56% 44% 13% 13% 0% 13% 31% 31% 27% 33% 67% 67% 33%
Philadelphia 70% 63% 38% 19% 6% 6% 25% 13% 31% 30% 57% 43% 43% 57%
Pittsburgh 48% 36% 64% 27% 9% 0% 0% 9% 55% 52% 67% 33% 25% 75%
St. Louis 59% 44% 56% 19% 0% 13% 19% 19% 31% 41% 27% 73% 27% 73%
San Diego 55% 44% 56% 19% 0% 6% 25% 6% 44% 45% 62% 38% 8% 92%
San Francisco 57% 25% 75% 17% 17% 0% 17% 25% 25% 43% 22% 78% 22% 78%
Seattle 67% 38% 63% 25% 13% 13% 19% 13% 19% 33% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Tampa Bay 74% 76% 24% 12% 0% 8% 12% 24% 44% 26% 33% 67% 22% 78%
Texas 52% 73% 27% 13% 0% 7% 27% 7% 47% 48% 57% 43% 29% 71%
Toronto 27% 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 20% 10% 60% 73% 70% 30% 26% 74%
Washington 38% 13% 88% 13% 13% 0% 25% 38% 50% 62% 15% 85% 8% 92%

Table 3: Type of player picked, rounds 1-4 % (2009-2013)
Team 1st Round % HS Arms 1st Round % HS Bats 1st Round % College Arms 1st Round % College Bats 2nd Round % HS Arms 2nd Round % HS Bats 2nd Round % College Arms 2nd Round % College Bats 3rd Round % HS Arms 3rd Round % HS Bats 3rd Round % College Arms 3rd Round % College Bats 4th round % HS Arms 4th round % HS Bats 4th round % College Arms 4th round % College Bats
Arizona 8% 33% 50% 8% 17% 33% 33% 17% 20% 20% 20% 40% 0% 60% 40% 0%
Atlanta 20% 20% 60% 0% 0% 0% 20% 80% 20% 20% 20% 40% 0% 40% 40% 20%
Baltimore 50% 33% 17% 0% 0% 50% 25% 25% 0% 20% 60% 20% 0% 40% 40% 20%
Boston 17% 17% 33% 33% 20% 20% 60% 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20%
Chicago (N) 14% 29% 29% 29% 20% 40% 20% 20% 40% 0% 0% 60% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Chicago (A) 0% 29% 14% 57% 33% 17% 50% 0% 0% 0% 67% 33% 40% 0% 60% 0%
Cincinnati 22% 11% 33% 33% 0% 80% 0% 20% 20% 0% 60% 20% 0% 0% 60% 40%
Colorado 20% 20% 40% 20% 0% 67% 33% 0% 17% 0% 33% 50% 0% 20% 20% 60%
Cleveland 0% 40% 40% 20% 50% 0% 0% 50% 20% 20% 60% 0% 0% 20% 40% 40%
Detroit 20% 20% 60% 0% 20% 0% 60% 20% 0% 20% 20% 60% 0% 20% 60% 20%
Houston 25% 38% 13% 25% 60% 0% 20% 20% 17% 17% 50% 17% 0% 20% 60% 20%
Kansas City 0% 17% 50% 33% 0% 25% 75% 0% 60% 40% 0% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20%
Los Angeles (A) 27% 45% 18% 9% 33% 0% 67% 0% 0% 17% 83% 0% 0% 20% 60% 20%
Los Angeles (N) 17% 33% 50% 0% 33% 17% 33% 17% 0% 0% 40% 60% 0% 60% 20% 20%
Miami 50% 17% 17% 17% 20% 0% 80% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 80% 20% 0%
Milwaukee 11% 11% 44% 33% 29% 57% 14% 0% 20% 0% 60% 20% 20% 0% 40% 40%
Minnesota 30% 20% 40% 10% 0% 17% 83% 0% 0% 0% 60% 40% 20% 20% 40% 20%
New York (N) 17% 50% 17% 17% 60% 0% 20% 20% 17% 17% 33% 33% 0% 20% 20% 60%
New York (A) 29% 43% 0% 29% 0% 67% 17% 17% 25% 25% 0% 50% 0% 60% 40% 0%
Oakland 0% 57% 14% 29% 0% 20% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% 60% 20% 20%
Philadelphia 60% 40% 0% 0% 14% 43% 14% 29% 0% 67% 17% 17% 0% 20% 20% 60%
Pittsburgh 13% 25% 38% 25% 60% 40% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 80% 60% 0% 20% 20%
St. Louis 25% 8% 25% 42% 0% 60% 20% 20% 0% 40% 60% 0% 0% 20% 20% 60%
San Diego 50% 17% 0% 33% 0% 57% 0% 43% 0% 0% 80% 20% 40% 20% 20% 20%
San Francisco 33% 17% 17% 33% 0% 40% 20% 40% 0% 0% 20% 80% 0% 0% 80% 20%
Seattle 14% 29% 14% 43% 0% 40% 0% 60% 43% 29% 14% 14% 0% 0% 40% 60%
Tampa Bay 12% 53% 18% 18% 0% 57% 29% 14% 0% 80% 0% 20% 20% 40% 20% 20%
Texas 31% 38% 15% 15% 33% 33% 17% 17% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% 60% 40% 0%
Toronto 47% 24% 29% 0% 88% 13% 0% 0% 29% 43% 14% 14% 40% 0% 40% 20%
Washington 14% 0% 43% 43% 0% 0% 50% 50% 0% 20% 60% 20% 20% 0% 60% 20%

Table 4: League-Average Tendencies
Tendency League Average
Total HS Picks 45%
Total College Picks 55%
1st round HS 51%
1st round College 49%
2nd round HS 52%
2nd round College 48%
3rd round HS 39%
3rd round College 61%
4th round HS 33%
4th round College 67%
1st Round % HS Arms 23%
1st Round % HS Bats 28%
1st Round % College Arms 27%
1st Round % College Bats 22%
2nd Round % HS Arms 20%
2nd Round % HS Bats 31%
2nd Round % College Arms 28%
2nd Round % College Bats 20%
3rd Round % HS Arms 15%
3rd Round % HS Bats 24%
3rd Round % College Arms 33%
3rd Round % College Bats 28%
4th round % HS Arms 10%
4th round % HS Bats 25%
4th round % College Arms 41%
4th round % College Bats 25%
% Bats 51%
% Prep Bats 54%
% College Bats 46%
% C 15%
% 1B 6%
% 2B 8%
% 3B 16%
% SS 16%
% OF 39%
% Arms 49%
% Prep Arms 37%
% College Arms 63%
% LHP 26%
% RHP 74%

So, what do you think? Does this reflect the impression you have about your own team? Any surprises? How do you think you could use this during the mock draft process?

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