Hey everyone, decided I'd go ahead and review my 2013 Yankees shadow draft, and how it has done so far. Here is how my draft shaped up. I made sure to stay within my budget, although some of the values would probably be different given where the player was picked (i.e. Unroe probably would've asked for more as the 32nd pick than the 60th, but I was picking along with the draft, and Unroe was expected to have large bonus demands). With that said, I think it is fairly realistic. Here are the results:
|Round||First name||Last name||POS||State||High School||College||Actual Draft||Shadow Yankees||Slot||Bonus||Difference|
|1||Robert||Kaminsky||LHP||New Jersey||St. Joseph Regional||28||26||$1,839,400||$1,785,300||$54,100|
|14||Edwin||Diaz||SS||Puerto Rico||Ladislao Martinez Otero||461||434||$100,000||$100,000||$0|
|15||Brandon||Bixler||LHP||Florida||Florida Gulf Coast||470||464||$100,000||$100,000||$0|
|21||Mark||Leiter, Jr.||RHP||New Jersey||NJ Inst. Of Tech.||661||634||$100,000||$100,000||$0|
|26||Cal||Quantrill||RHP||Canada, Ontario||Trinity College School||794||794||$100,000|
|28||Ryan "Rowdy"||Tellez||1B||California||Elk Grove||895||854||$100,000||$850,000||-$750,000|
|31||John||Straka||RHP||North Dakota||ND State||970||944||$100,000||$100,000||$0|
|32||Chauncey "Kale"||Sumner||3B||Hawaii||Hawaii Pacific||974||974||$100,000||$100,000||$0|
|33||Dustin||Cook||RHP||Texas||San Jacinto College||1011||1004||$100,000|
|36||Sheldon||Neuse||SS||Texas||Keller Fossil Ridge||1150||1094||$100,000|
|Total Bonus Pool||$7,957,400|
|TBP + 5%||$8,355,270|
|Left over 5% overage||$55,070|
With the first pick, pick 26, I chose Rob Kaminsky, my personal favorite prep lefty in last year's draft, and a local New Jersey high school star. The Yankees went with Eric Jagielo, the star third baseman from Notre Dame. So far, Jagielo has shown the polish with the bat that was expected when he was drafted, hitting .263/.367/.452, 145 wRC+ over his 316 professional PA to date. He has also shown better defense than expected. Kaminsky hasn't pitched in 2014 yet, but in his first 22 professional innings last summer, he put up a 11.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 3.1 K/BB, showing the polish that separated him from other high school arms in last year's draft. Right now, I'd be happy with either guy.
With the second of three first round picks, pick 32, I went with Riley Unroe. I felt Unroe was the second-best prep shortstop available last year, behind only JP Crawford. He was one of the youngest draft-eligible players, and had the pro pedigree, his father being former major leaguer Tim Unroe. The Yankees went with Aaron Judge, the mountain of a man from Fresno State. I picked him with the next pick, pick 33, so I will discuss him in a bit. Unroe hasn't played yet in 2014, but last year he hit .246/.376/.341, with a 122 wRC+ in his first 202 PA. I am still very happy with this pick.
With the final first round pick, pick 33, I picked Aaron Judge, who was picked at 32 by the real Yankees. Given how I thought Unroe would cost more, I wanted to give him more bonus space. The real Yankees went with Ian Clarkin, the prep lefty from San Diego. I really like Clarkin, but I already had Kaminsky, who I like more as a prep lefty. Judge made sense as a big college bat that could move fast, but also had some projection left. Judge so far has hit .353/.476/.456, with a 176 wRC+ in his first 84 professional PA, after missing last summer to injury. Clarkin only threw five innings last summer after being drafted with a 4/4 K/BB ratio, and has yet to pitch in 2014. Right now, I'd say I am happy with this pick, I essentially traded Unroe for Clarkin, which I think is a good move in the long run.
In the second round, the real Yankees selected Gosuke Katoh, who I wasn't a huge fan of. Of course, he goes and destroys Rookie ball last summer, with a .310/.402/.522, 170 wRC+ line. He has struggled so far in 2014, hitting .157/.323/.235 with a 77 wRC+. His true value is probably somewhere in the middle, we will know more at the end of 2014. I chose Jordan Paroubeck, the high school outfielder, and Barry Bonds acolyte, from Berkeley, California. Paroubeck missed last summer due to injury, and has yet to play this year. Right now, I'd say Katoh was the better pick, but I still think Paroubeck has some massive long-term potential.
I stayed with the Yankees pick in the third round, speedy outfielder Michael O'Neill from Michigan. This was about where he ranked on my own board, but I must admit that being the nephew of former Yankees great Paul O'Neill pushed me to agree with this pick. There were plenty of other guys with higher ceilings available at pick 103, but he seemed a safe college pick - gotta diversify the portfolio, if you will. So far, he has not been that good, combining for a 90 wRC+ in his first 358 PA between Low-A Staten Island and Single-A Charleston. He has shown some surprising power in 2014, but terrible contact skills - a 19/123 BB/K ratio - doesn't portend future success, nor does his age relative to league average age.
In the fourth round, the real Yankees went with Tyler Wade, a high school shortstop from Murrieta, California. So far, he has been a great pick, putting up a 146 wRC+ in Rookie Ball last summer, and following that up with a 124 wRC+ as a 19 year old in full season ball in 2014. It sounds like his defense should allow him to stick at SS, and a 44/61 BB/K ratio so far is a great sign for a high school draft pick. He could really break out and jump up the Yankees prospect lists this year. I was lukewarm on him, especially with pick 134. I instead went with the safer, college arm Buck Farmer, out of Georgia Tech. I liked Farmer's arm, and expected he could save me some money for picks that dropped. He has been great so far, with a 10.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.3 K/BB line over his first 54.2 innings. However, he hasn't made it past Single-A, and as a college senior, he is already 23. If he can get a mid-season promotion to Double-A, that will put him back on a more age-appropriate development path. I do like Farmer, but I think the Yankees beat me with this pick.
With pick 164 in the fifth round, the Yankees started their yearly binge on bullpen arms in the draft, selecting David Pallidino from Howard College in Texas. They actually used him as a starter last summer, throwing 54 innings in 15 games and 12 starts. He put up a nice 8.2 K/9, a meh 4.3 BB/9, resulting in a pedestrian 1.9 K/BB. He is a big guy (6'8") with big stuff, but I can't see him making the majors as a starter . The player I picked instead I do think has major league starting rotation potential, Matt Boyd from Oregon State. So far, he has a 9.8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/BB line in his first 55 professional innings. I actually almost picked him in the third round, over O'Neill. I think he is a sleeper pick in last year's draft, and was surprised he lasted until the sixth round in real life. I think I bested the Yankees here.
The real Yankees selected organizational filler and bonus-saver John Murphy, a SS from Sacred Heart University in the sixth round. He was terrible last summer, putting up a 38 wRC+ in 137 PA as a 22 year old in short season ball. He has been better this year, with a 109 wRC+ in his first 47 PA in full season Charleston, but he is still old for the league, and tops out as a utility guy at best. I went with Drew Dosch, a sleeper draft prospect I really liked out of Youngstown State in Ohio. The third baseman was a top bat in the 2012 Cape Cod league, and put up a 98 wRC+ in his first 80 professional PA last summer. He has yet to play in 2014, but I think he has way more potential than Murphy does, so I think I won this pick.
The Yankees went back to their bullpen picks in the seventh, taking Nick Rumbelow from LSU. So far, he has put up some great numbers, and could be next in a long line of successful bullpen arms drafted by the Yankees. In 28.2 innings, he has 29/7 K/BB ratio, with a 1.88 ERA. I decided to roll the dice that I had saved enough money to convince Jake Brentz, a prep lefty from Manchester, Missouri, to forgo college and sign. He ended up costing $539,200 over slot to sign, but I think he has the potential to make it a worthwhile investment. He didn't have a great first taste of pro ball, with a ERA over 10.00 and a putrid 8/12 K/BB ratio in his first 7.2 innings, but his potential is still huge. This pick is a coin toss for me - Rumbelow has a much higher floor, and a decent ceiling as a bullpen arm, while Brentz has a lot of boom or bust potential. I'l take the mid-90s heat from a teenage lefty for now, knowing that that could backfire in a hurry.
I agreed with the Yankees and stuck with the Brandon Thomas pick in the 8th. I was surprised the Georgia Tech outfielder fell that far, given he was a fourth rounder in 2012. So far he has been okay, putting up a 100 wRC+ over his first 343 PA as a too old for his level outfielder.
In the 9th round, the Yankees went college reliever again, taking Conner Kendrick from Auburn. Kendrick was a younger college draftee, only 20 at the time of the draft. They started him in 8 of his 13 games, and over his first 43.1 innings he has a blah 27/18 K/BB ratio. I went with Michael Tauchman from Bradley University in Ilinios. I liked Tauchman's walk rate and speed in college, plus I knew he would be a cheap sign as a small college senior. In his first 274 PA in the Rockies system, he put up a .297/.388/.377 line, with 20 steals and a 129 wRC+. I am pretty happy with this pick, as I like Tauchman more than Kendrick.
In the tenth, the Yankees took a - yep, you guessed it - college reliever, Tyler Webb from South Carolina. Over his first 44.1 innings, he has an amazing 63/9 K/BB ratio. He could fly through the minors, and be in the big leagues in 2015. I decided to pick a player who had been pretty highly ranked, but fallen down the draft boards during the spring, high school lefty Johan Wesely from Tracy, California. He's only thrown one inning so far, but he has much more potential than Webb. And he only cost $74,700 more than slot, a pleasant surprise. This is a similar situation to the Rumbelow/Brentz pick from above. If I am right on just one of these picks, it will be worth it.
After the first ten rounds, things get a bit dicier. I will post relevant stats, and a judgement on who won that pick, myself or the Yankees.
Shadow Yankees: Joe Martarano, 3B, Idaho HS. A longshot pick, didn't sign.
Real Yankees: Kendall Coleman, OF, Texas HS. .143/.200/.179, 2/11 BB/K,18 wRC+, in 30 PA.
Winner: Real Yankees - Not great, but they got a player signed out of high school with some potential
Shadow Yankees: Sicnarf Loopstok, C, Western OK CC. .205/.247/.247, 4/14 BB/K, 51 wRC+.
Real Yankees: Philip Walby, RHP, San Diego State. 42.1 IP, 47/31 K/BB.
Winner: Real Yankees - Picked Loopstock partly because of name, but good JC catching prospect. Could still go in my favor.
Shadow Yankees: Silento Sayles, OF, Port Gibson HS, MS. .186/.331/.245, 79 wRC+ in 127 PA, 5 SB.
Real Yankees: Cale Coshow, RHP, Oklahoma Christian University. 3.76 ERA, 36/22 K/BB, 40.2 IP.
Winner: Shadow Yankees - Yankees take another bullpen arm, but give me the young guy with elite speed (Sayles broke the MS HS stolen base record). It's hard to find players with even one elite skill by the 13th round.
Shadow Yankees: Edwin Diaz, SS, Puerto Rico HS. .239/.276/.359, 74 wRC+, 5/25 BB/K in 98 PA. One of better Puerto Rican draft prospects, somehow fell to 14th and signed for less than $100,000 cap.
Real Yankees: Caleb Smith, LHP, Sam Houston State. 1.63 ERA, 83/25 K/BB in 71.2 IP.
Winner: Real Yankees. I was sure I won this at draft time, but Smith has been a revelation in the early going.
Shadow Yankees: Brandon Bixler, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast. 1.62 ERA, 44/20 /BB in 33.1 IP.
Real Yankees: Jordan Barnes, OF, NW MS CC. .200/.281/.213, 57 wRC+, 14/30 BB/K in 169 PA.
Winner: Shadow Yankees - Bixler is a short lefty with some good stuff out of the pen. If he gets the walks under control, he should be a valuable bullpen piece. Barnes has a little to dream on, but I'll take Bixler.
Shadow Yankees: Eric Lauer, LHP, OH HS. - Did not sign.
Real Yankees: Ryan Butler, RHP, Central Piedmont CC. - Did not sign
Winner: No one. Butler is going to UNC Charlotte. Lauer dropped due to injury and signability, and went to Kent State - he could be a big draft prospect in 2016.
Shadow Yankees: Christian Jones, LHP, Oregon. 2.32 ERA, 33/5 K/BB in 31 IP.
Real Yankees: Hever Bueno, RHP, AZ HS. Did not sign.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Bueno went to AZ State. Jones looks like a solid LOOGY prospect, with a chance to be more.
Shadow Yankees: Dustin Fowler, OF, GA HS. .241/.274/.384, 89 wRC+, 4/23 BB/K, in 117 PA.
Real Yankees: Dustin Fowler, OF, GA HS. .241/.274/.384, 89 wRC+, 4/23 BB/K, in 117 PA.
Winner: No one, or everyone(?). Fowler has some tools, but hasn't been good so far.
Shadow Yankees: Chase Brookshire, LHP, Belmont. 4.68 ERA, 27/6 K/BB in 32.2 IP.
Real Yankees: Andy Beresford, RHP, UNLV. 2.48 ERA, 21/8 K/BB in 36.1 IP.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Look beyond the ERA, and Brookshire shows the very good K/BB ratios he showed in college, which is why I took him. Plus, he has a longer leash as a lefty. Beresford has better stuff, though. But for now, I'll take this one.
Shadow Yankees: Drew Bridges, 3B, MO HS. .153/.271/.236, 61 wRC+, 11/24 BB/K in 85 PA.
Real Yankees: Drew Bridges, 3B, MO HS. .153/.271/.236, 61 wRC+, 11/24 BB/K in 85 PA.
Winner: Tie. Bridges showed big power in HS, but he's only showed big wiffs in pro ball so far.
Shadow Yankees: Mark Leiter Jr., RHP, NJIT. 1.70 ERA, 72/17 K/BB in 69 IP.
Real Yankees: Ethan Carnes, LHP, Oklahoma. 3.86 ERA, 16/7 K/BB in 16.1 IP.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Leiter has a chance as a back of the rotation arm. Plus, he has Yankees ties (father Mark, uncle Al).
Shadow Yankees: Brenden Kalfus, OF, St. Mary's College of CA. .268/.349/.346, 108 wRC+, 25/53 BB/K in 263 PA.
Real Yankees: Derek Toadvine, 2B, Kent State. .237/.329/.279, 93 wRC+, 23/53 BB/K in 246 PA.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Toadvine did better than I expected, and neither are much more than bench guys at best, but Kalfus's speed and eye makes that a more realistic outcome.
Shadow Yankees: Michael Bass, 2B, UNC-W. .234/.300/.281, 74 wRC+, 16/34 BB/K in 192 PA.
Real Yankees: Alex Polanco, RHP, Western Oklahoma. 0.00 ERA, 3/4 K/BB in 3.1 IP.
Winner: Real Yankees. I hoped Bass's plate discipline, speed, and surprising pop in college would translate to pro ball. So far, it hasn't. Polanco has more potential, even if he has limited pro experience to date.
Shadow Yankees: Garrett Hampson, SS, NV HS. Did not sign.
Real Yankees: Sam Agnew-Wieland, RHP, Appalachian State. 3.72 ERA, 42/17 K/BB in 38.2 IP.
Winner: Real Yankees. Hampson was a longshot pick, but at this point in the draft, why not? He went to Long Beach State, and should be a top three round guy in 2016. Agnew-Weiland signed, and could be a good bullpen arm.
Shadow Yankees: Zach Shank, 2B, Marist. .223/.312/.344, 92 wRC+, 11 SB, 25/36 BB/K in 290 PA.
Real Yankees: Jordan Floyd, LHP, KS HS. Did not sign.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Shank was a favorite underdog type of mine. Did okay last year, struggling so far this year. Floyd went to Kansas State.
Shadow Yankees:Cal Quantrill, RHP, Canadian HS. Did not sign.
Real Yankees:Cal Quantrill, RHP, Canadian HS. Did not sign.
Winner: We were both losers. Took a long shot, it didn't work out. Plus Yankees ties with rubber-armed dad Paul.
Shadow Yankees: Dusten Knight, RH, UT Pan-Am. 1.12 ERA, 43/11 K/BB in 32 IP.
Real Yankees: Dillon McNamara, RHP, Adelphi. 2.19 ERA, 31/17 K/BB in 37 IP.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. I like what short righty Knight can do, but both are longshots.
Shadow Yankees: Rowdy Tellez, 1B, CA HS. .234/.319/.371, 105 wRC+, 15/26 BB/K.
Real Yankees: Trent Garrison, C, Fresno State.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Used up the rest of the money I had saved on Tellez, who was a top three round guy most of the spring, and fell due to perceived signability issues. Yankees took org-filler, and Aaron Judge teammate Garrison. Give me the Rowdy one.
Shadow Yankees: Ben McQuown, OF, Campbell. .277/.417/.366, 132 wRC+, 10 SB, 22/30 BB/K in 128 PA.
Real Yankees: Charles White, OF, Maryland. Did not sign.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. McQuown has speed, defense, and a good eye at the plate. As a small college guy, he got no respect. He should have. White chose to go back to college for his senior year.
Shadow Yankees: Kevin Cornelius, 3B, Grayson CC. .269/.330/.376, 9/19 BB/K, 110 wRC+ in 104 PA.
Real Yankees: Cody Thomas, OF, TX HS. Did not sign.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. I liked Cornelius enough to take him a round earlier than the Yankees. Thomas decided to go play QB for the Sooners.
Shadow Yankees: John Straka, RHP, ND State. 4.88 ERA, 27/6 K/BB in 31.1 IP.
Real Yankees: Kevin Cornelius, 3B, Grayson CC. .269/.330/.376, 9/19 BB/K, 110 wRC+ in 104 PA.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Already got Cornelius, pick up Straka, a strike-throwing bullpen arm with a great K/BB ratio.
Shadow Yankees: Kale Sumner, 3B, Hawaii Pacific. .263/.368/.366, 26/44 BB/K, 126 wRC+ in 209 PA.
Real Yankees: Kale Sumner, 3B, Hawaii Pacific. .263/.368/.366, 26/44 BB/K, 126 wRC+ in 209 PA.
Winner: Tie. Sumner has a cool name (Chaunsey Kale Sumner!), great stats in college, and has been surprisingly good in pro ball with the bat, and has already played five positions. He probably won't make it, but he could surprise some folks, given his versatility, especially if he can keep his bat going.
Shadow Yankees: Dustin Cook, RHP, San Jacinto. Did not sign
Real Yankees: Shane McCarley, RHP, TX HS. Did not sign.
Winner: Neither. McCarley was the harder sign, given his QB scholarship to Old Dominion. He transferred to Blinn JC, and could be drafted and signed again this year or next. Cook is a big, projectable righty who was drafted in 2012 out of HS, and 2013 out of JC. He hasn't signed, and has struggled in the early going this spring, but could be a sleeper pick this June. Plus, he has the same last name as me.
Shadow Yankees: Dalton Dulin, SS, TN HS. Did not sign.
Real Yankees: Hector Crespo, 2B, Appalachian State. .209/.280/.220, 7/24 BB/K, 57 wRC+in 100 PA. Released in December 2013.
Winner: Real Yankees? They signed Crespo, but released him after only 100 PA. Dulin was a longshot, and should be a top draft prospect in 2016.
Shadow Yankees: Trever Morrison, SS, WA HS. Did not sign.
Real Yankees: Nick Green, RHP, CO HS. Did not sign.
Winner: Tie. Morrison was probably more of a longshot, he is at Oregon State now. Green went to Indian Hills CC, and could be drafted again this year.
Shadow Yankees: Sheldon Neuse, SS, TX HS. Did not sign.
Real Yankees: Nestor Cortes, RHP, FL HS. 4.42 ERA, 20/5 K/BB in 18.1 IP.
Winner: Real Yankees. They got a good projectable arm in the 36th round. Can't complain about that. Neuse went to Oklahoma, should be a top 2016 draft prospect. Shadow Yankees still haven't got a tough sign HS SS. Maybe we'll try one more time.
Shadow Yankees: Joshua Pettitte, RHP, TX HS. Did not sign.
Real Yankees: Joshua Pettitte, RHP, TX HS. Did not sign.
Winner: Tie. How do you not take Andy's son, even if he has said he won't sign. Let's hope he does well in college, and we can grab him in 2016.
Shadow Yankees: Timmy Richards, SS, CA HS.
Real Yankees: Andrew Schmidt, OF, CO HS. Did not sign.
Winner: Tie. Neither signed, both could be top draft prospects in 2016. Schmidt went to UCLA, Richards to CS Fullerton. Last shot trying to get one of the HS SS who dropped to sign.
Shadow Yankees: Tyler Brunnemann, RHP, Hardin-Simmons. 2.59 ERA, 52/8 K/BB in 41.2 IP.
Real Yankees: Ty Afenir, MIF, Washington. .184/.286/.224, 9/24 BB/K, 59 wRC+ in 116 PA. Released in Dec. 2013.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Afenir has already been released, Brunnemann has been a surprise in the bullpen. I picked him because of his crazy 62/3 K/BB ratio in his last year of college. So far, so good.
Shadow Yankees: Justin Hess, RHP, Georgia Southern. Signed as undrafted free agent with Houston after draft. 2.70 ERA, 14/1 K/BB in 10 IP.
Real Yankees: Kyle Buchanan, OF, Florida Gulf Coast. Did not sign.
Winner: Shadow Yankees. Hess was a favorite sleeper of mine, along with Johnny Bladel and Kayden Porter, all of whom were available. I went with Hess, as I though he was the most likely to be signed after not being drafted. He was one of the top college arms statistically in 2013, so why not see if it can work in pro ball? So far, so good.
Final tally is 19 Shadow Yankees to 9 Real Yankees, with 14 ties.
So, how do you think I did? Who do you think had the better draft - the real Yankees, or my shadow Yankees?