Yankees 2013 MOD #1

Hey everyone, here is the first MOD for the Yankees. Earlier in the spring, I posted a review of past drafts, and looked at what this may mean for the type of players they would target in 2013. You can read that here.

The Yankees have 6 picks in the first four rounds, including three in the first round. Their total bonus pool for rounds 1-10, covering their first 12 picks, is $7,957,400. They are allowed to spend an additional 5% without losing future draft picks, which would equal $8,355,270. Here are the picks in the first four rounds, with bonus slots:

Pick # Slot Value Slot Value + 5%
26 $1,839,400.00 $1,931,370.00
32 $1,677,100.00 $1,760,955.00
33 $1,650,100.00 $1,732,605.00
66 $845,700.00 $887,985.00
103 $500,900.00 $525,945.00
134 $371,300.00 $389,865.00
TOTAL $6,884,500.00 $7,228,725.00

Let's look at the recent drafting history of the Yankees to see what type of player the team will focus on, and try to identify some draft prospects they should target. Below is a list of players the Yankees have drafted over the last five years in the first four rounds:

Year Round Pick # Name Position School level
2012 1 30 Ty Hensley RHP HS
2012 2 89 Austin Aune SS HS
2012 2 94 Peter O'Brien C College
2012 3 124 Nathan Mikolas LF HS
2012 4 157 Corey Black RHP College
2011 1 51 Dante Bichette 3B HS
2011 2 88 Sam Stafford LHP College
2011 3 118 Jordan Cote RHP HS
2011 4 149 Gregory Bird C HS
2010 1 32 Cito Culver SS HS
2010 2 82 Angelo Gumbs SS HS
2010 3 112 Rob Segedin 3B College
2010 4 145 Mason Williams CF HS
2009 1 29 Slade Heathcott CF HS
2009 2 76 J.R. Murphy C HS
2009 4 135 Adam Warren RHP College
2008 1 28 Gerrit Cole RHP HS
2008 1 44 Jeremy Bleich LHP College
2008 2 75 Scott Bittle LHP College
2008 3 106 David Adams 2B College
2008 4 140 Corban Joseph SS HS

As you can see, they focus heavily on high school players. They have only selected 8 college players out of 21 total players, and half of those were selected before 2010. In the last 5 years, they've selected high school players 62% of the time, and college players 38% of the time. In the first round, they've picked high schoolers 83% of the time. They've gone with prep players and college players an equal number of times in both the second round and third round. In the fourth round, they've gone with prep players 60% of the time. However, they have selected at least one college player within the first four rounds each year, so we can assume they will use either a second or third round pick on a college player.

What type of players do they focus on? In the first round, they have picked a prep bat 50% of the time, a prep arm 33% of the time, and a college arm 17% of the time. In the second round, they have gone with a prep bat 50% of the time, a college arm 33% of the time, and a college bat 17% of the time. In the third round, they've gone with a college bat 50% of the time each, and prep arms and bats 25% of the time each. In the fourth round, they've picked prep bats 60% of the time and college arms 40% of the time.

Overall, they've gone with a prep bat 10 out of 21 picks, or 48% of the time. They've picked both a prep arm and a college bat 14% of the time. And they've picked a college arm 24% of the time. Of the arms they've selected, they've picked a RHP 63% of the time, and a LHP 37% of the time. Of the bats selected, they've picked a SS 31% of the time, a catcher and a third baseman 24% of the time, and center fielder 15% of the time.

Given their draft history, what type of draft could we expect from the Yankees this year? Given their three first round picks, it seems reasonable to expect them to pick a college player in the first round, if for no reason other than to free up some cap space for two prep players. Looking at their tendencies over the last four years, I would expect the first three picks to be a prep bat (probably a SS) a prep arm (probably a RHP) and a college bat. In the second and third round, I would expect a another prep bat and a college arm in that order . And either a prep bat or college arm in the fourth round

So, for the first MOD, does this look like a reasonable draft strategy to you?

And, given this list of players, who do you think would most fit the Yankees draft tendencies at pick 26?

First name Last name POS State High School College
Bobby Wahl RHP Mississippi
Ryan Eades RHP Louisiana
Louisiana State
Marco Gonzales LHP Washington
Robert Kaminsky LHP New Jersey St. Joseph Regional
Oscar Mercado SS Florida Gaither
Aaron Judge OF California
Fresno State
D.J. Peterson 1B New Mexico
New Mexico
Michael Lorenzen OF California
Cal State Fullerton
Nick Ciuffo C South Carolina Lexington
Justin Williams OF Louisiana Terrebonne
Kevin Ziomek LHP Tennesee
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