FanPost

Potential 2013 Oakland A's Draft Picks

Hey everyone, welcome to installment seven of this series. I have previously done the Yankees, Cardinals, Rays, Pirates, Rangers, and Marlins (click on the team to find those posts).

On June 6, 2013, the first day of the MLB Amateur draft begins. The Oakland A's have five picks in the first three rounds, the most of any team (picks 24, 63, 71, 100, and 106). Let's look at the recent drafting history of the A's to see what type of player the team will focus on, and try to identify some draft prospects they should target. Below is a list of players the A's have drafted over the last five years in the first three rounds:

Year Round Pick # Name Position School level
2012 1 11 Addison Russell SS HS
2012 1 34 Daniel Robertson SS HS
2012 1 47 Matt Olson 1B HS
2012 2 62 Bruce Maxwell C College
2012 2 74 Nolan Sanburn RHP College
2012 3 106 Kyle Twomey LHP College
2011 1 18 Sonny Gray RHP College
2011 3 105 BA Vollmuth 3B College
2010 1 10 Michael Choice CF College
2010 2 60 Yordy Cabrera 3B HS
2010 3 92 Aaron Shipman CF HS
2009 1 13 Grant Green SS College
2009 3 92 Justin Marks LHP College
2008 1 12 Jemile Weeks 2B College
2008 2 58 Tyson Ross RHP College
2008 3 90 Petey Paramore C College

The A's have had 16 picks in the first three rounds, only one more than would be expected. However, 43% of their picks in the last three years have come in the first round.They have an extra pick this year in the competitive balance round B, and one at the end of the third round for failing to sign Kyle Twomey last year. Of the 16 players drafted, 69% (11/16) have been from the college ranks. However, they used all three first round picks, and 50% of their first three round picks, last year on high school talent, which is an interesting shift for them.

In the first round, 57% of their draft picks have been from college, but it was 100% until last year. In the second round, they have picked college players 75% of the time. In the third round, 80% of their picks are from the college ranks. This year, the A's have 5 picks in the first three rounds. Given their drafting history above, we can expect three college players and two high school players. You could go with four college players and one high schooler, but I am going to assume their draft last year means they are more open to HS talent in the first three rounds.

So what type of players do they focus on? They've gone with a both college and prep bats 43% of the time in the first round since 2008. In the second round, they have gone with a college arm 50% of the time, and college and prep bats 25% of the time each. In the third round, they've gone with college arms and bats 40% of the time each, with a prep bat 20% of the time.

They've picked prep bats 31% of the time, and have not picked any prep arms in the first three rounds since 2008. They've picked a college arm 31% of the time, and a college bat 38% of the time. Overall, they've picked an arm 31% of the time, and a bat 69% of the time in the first three rounds. Of those 69% of picks that were bats, they've picked an SS 27% of the time, and a center fielder, third baseman, and catcher 18% of the time. Out of the 31% of their picks that were pitchers, they've picked a RHP 60% of the time and a LHP 40% of the time.

Given their draft history, what type of draft could we expect from the A's this year? It seems reasonable to expect them to pick a position player in the first round, as they've done 86% of the time in the last five years. With five picks, we would expect 4 bats, 2 each from high school and college, and one college arm. Looking at their tendencies over the last five years, I would expect the first round pick to be either a prep or college bat. In the second round, I am going to look at a college arm, since that is the type of pick they make most often in that round, and we are looking for one college arm. In Comp Round B, I will look at prep bats. In the third round, I will look at a college bat. And the comp pick for failing to sign Twomey will either be a prep or college bat.

Looking at my personal draft rankings, who would be available that fits these descriptions. In the first round, they have pick 24. Let's look at my board for players ranked 19-29:

First name Last name POS State High School College
Philip Ervin OF Alabama
Samford
Bobby Wahl RHP Mississippi
Mississippi
Robert Kaminsky LHP New Jersey St. Joseph Regional
Ryan Eades RHP Louisiana
Louisiana State
Oscar Mercado SS Florida Gaither
Marco Gonzales LHP Washington
Gonzaga
Aaron Judge OF California
Fresno State
D.J. Peterson 1B New Mexico
New Mexico
Justin Williams OF Louisiana Terrebonne
Kevin Ziomek LHP Tennesee
Vanderbilt
Michael Lorenzen OF California
Cal State Fullerton

Looking at the bats available, we have Ervin, Mercado, Judge, Peterson, Williams, and Lorenzen. I don't think Ervin will make it to them. Lorenzen doesn't walk enough, and Williams will have similar issues with patience coming out of high school. That leaves Judge, Peterson, and Mercado. They go with SS most often of any position players, so that would have me lean towards Mercado. But man, Aaron Judge, from nearby Fresno State, screams out to me as an A's type of player. And lo and behold, the A's drafted him out of HS in 2010 from nearby Linden, CA. He is a monster of a man, 6'7 and over 250 pounds, but with the ability to stay in the OF, at least for the short term. He reminds me of Kyle Blanks. For such a big guy, it took until his junior season to really start tapping into his power, and boy has he. As of May 3, he has a .346/.430/.572 line, with 7 HR and 38 K to 25 BB. He also has surprising speed, going 31 for 34 in stolen base attempts in his college career. So with the 24th pick, the A's select Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State, CA.


The A's next pick is at 63. Let's look at my 58-68 ranked players:

First name Last name POS State High School College
Jan Hernandez 3B Puerto Rico Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy
Zack Collins 1B Florida American Heritage
A.J. Puk LHP Iowa Washington
Garrett Williams RHP Louisiana Calvary Baptist
Dillon Overton LHP Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Jason Hursh RHP Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Colby Suggs RHP Arkansas
Arkansas
Dylan Covey RHP California
San Diego
Drew Ward 3B Oklahoma Leedey
Ryan "Rowdy" Tellez 1B California Elk Grove
Austin Kubitza RHP Texas
Rice

I wanted to look at college arms at this point, and we have five. Hursh has been moving up draft boards, so he probably won't be available at 63. Suggs has stuff that could make him a plus reliever, but his command has gone the way of the dodo bird this year. So we are down to three: Overton, Covey, and Kubitza. They tend to pick righties over lefties, so let's eliminate Overton. Out of Covey and Kubitza, I think the best match is Dylan Covey. Covey was a first round pick three years ago, and chose to attend college after he was diagnosed with Type I Diabetes. Adapting to the new lifestyle has hurt his draft stock from three years ago, and he won't be a first rounder this year. However, he still possesses a plus fastball, which sits in the low 90s and has some great movement. He also has a curveball that flashes plus, and a promising change-up. He has had control problems in college, but I think this is correctable with pro coaching. He shies away from throwing the two-seamer with good boring movement to righties, and has little command of it to lefties. I think this will get better in pro ball, as he works on softening his front leg and feeling comfortable throwing the two-seamer to righties. He still has the talent of a first rounder, with the floor of a power reliever, similar to Sonny Gray from a few years ago. So with pick 63, the A's select Dylan Covey, RHP, University of San Diego, CA.


Eight picks later, the A's are back on the board. This is part of Comp Round B. Here are players ranked 66-76 on my personal list.

First name Last name POS State High School College
Drew Ward 3B Oklahoma Leedey
Ryan "Rowdy" Tellez 1B California Elk Grove
Austin Kubitza RHP Texas
Rice
Ryan McMahon 3B California Mater Dei
Casey Shane RHP Texas Centennial
Kent Emanuel LHP North Carolina
North Carolina
Joe Martarano 3B Idaho Fruitland
Chris Oakley RHP New Jersey St. Augustine Prep
Cord Sandberg OF Florida Manatee
Chad Pinder SS Virginia
Virginia Tech
Matthew McPhearson OF Maryland Riverdale Baptist

I wanted to look at prep bats here, and we have six to choose from. The top four positions they pick the most are SS, C, CF, and 3B. There are no shortstops or catchers, but there are three third basemen (Ward, McMahon and Martarano) and one center fielder (McPhearson). I am going to go with one of the third basemen. Ward would be my first choice, but I don't think he will make it to pick 71. Martarano and McMahon could both be tough signs, but I think McMahon will be the easier of the two. Ryan McMahon is a very good defensive third baseman, who was named Baseball America's Defensive Player of USA Baseball's 2013 National High School Invitational, where he led Mater Dei to the title. He also has a very impressive bat, with a sweet swing from the left side. He would be a very solid pick at 71, with the chance to be one of the better HS position players selected out of this class. So with the 71st pick, the A's select Ryan McMahon, 3B, Mater Dei HS, California.


The A's next pick is towards the end of the third round, pick 100. Let's look at players ranked 95-105 on my board:

First name Last name POS State High School College
Derik Beauprez 1B Colorado Cherry Creek
Nick Longhi 1B Florida Venice
Dustin Peterson 3B Arizona Gilbert
John Sternagel 3B Florida Rockledge
Alex Gonzalez RHP Oklahoma
Oral Roberts
Kevin Davis RHP Alabama T.R. Miller
Corey Knebel RHP Texas
Texas
Robert Tyler RHP Georgia Crisp County
Adam Plutko RHP California
UCLA
Kevin Franklin 3B California Gahr
Alex Balog RHP California San Francisco

I wanted to look at a college bat...but there are none. Since the next two picks are bats, one college and one prep, let's look for a shortstop, and either a catcher or center fielder. No catcher, shortstop, or center fielder here, either. Let's look further down the list. For pick 100, I am going with Terry McClure, a speedy HS CF from Georgia ranked 112 on my board. He may be the fastest player in the draft, and could be a top of the order threat with above average defense in center field. He may never be a big power hitter, but 10 HR isn't out of the question. He is committed to Georgia Tech, but should be signable in the third round. And with pick 106, I am going with Stuart Turner, a catcher from the University of Mississippi ranked 135 on my board. He should be able to be signed at a discount, which can be used towards the other picks. He is a solid defensive catcher, with an above average bat for a receiver. As of May 3, he had a .398/.455/.584 line, with a 28/20 K/BB ratio and 5 HR in 166 AB. And this is his first year in DI, after having played two years in JuCo ball at LSU-Eunice. So with pick 100, the A's select Terry McClure, CF, Westlake HS, GA. With pick 107, they select Stuart Turner, C, University of Mississippi, Mississippi.



Here's the final results:

24. Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State, CA

63. Dylan Covey, RHP, University of San Diego, CA

71. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Mater Dei HS, CA

100. Terry McClure, CF, Westlake HS, GA

106. Stuart Turner, C, University of Mississippi, Mississippi

So what do you think? Does this look like a reasonable draft for the Oakland A's? Who do you think is a better fit, and why?

Next up are the KC Royals. Please vote below for the next team you want to see written up.

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