FanPost

STL Cardinals MOD #2: First Round and Bonus Pool

This post is directed towards our two first round picks. To discuss our current situation, please see our STL MOD1.

FUTURE REFERENCE:

Jim Callis Top 100

Keith Law Top 100 (ESPN Insider)

MLB.com Top 100

First, let's look at our draft budget more in depth.

2013 Draft Budget Breakdown

2013 First Ten Rounds Budget: $6,907,900

Let's take a look at last year how rounds 5-10 played out, so we can have an idea of how much the program would be aiming to spend in the first four rounds.

Round 5-10 Spending: $420,300 with one unsigned

Round 5-10 Budget: $747,300 with one round lost (6th round)

They saved some money in the end of the draft, so we can use that to our advantage. Let's assume that they spend this much money for rounds 5-10 in the 2013 draft, plus 2% for inflation. The new number is $428,700.

In rounds 5-10, excluding the 6th round where we can assume that the Cardinals will pay "slot" for a player, they will have $842,300 to spend. Therefore, the Cardinals will have an additional $413,600 to spend in the first four rounds above slot.

Total bonus allocation for the first four rounds is $5,775,500, plus the extra leftover money makes a grand total of $6,189,100 to spend on our first four picks. On top of that, we have a 5% top-off, leaving our final budget at:

2013 First Four Rounds Bonus Pool: $6,498,600

Picks 19 and 28

We currently have two first round picks, at 19 and 28. That gives us a lot more flexibility than what most other teams have. The Cardinals have shown a strong tendency to take at minimum one college player in the first round. After that, we're looking at a mixed chance at a college or high school player.

In my personal Scouting Director opinion, we have two picks and a few distinct criteria to fill:

1. The Cardinals take at least one college player in the first round (pick 19 or 28)

2. The Cards last year did well with the strategy of taking a guy who's slot or slightly underslot with the second first rounder to secure later cash in the second round. Let's see if we can use that to our advantage.

3. We should draft to fill some empty holes in the org. That leans towards catcher, shortstop, and of course you can never have too many outfielders or pitchers.

We can go in a number of directions here with our picks. Let's look at some options for each pick.

PICK 19 and PICK 28

Jim Callis: Chris Anderson (College RHP) and Billy McKinney (HS OF) - Updated May 9

Sports Illustrated: Chris Anderson (College RHP) and Austin Wilson (College OF) - Updated May 10

Here are players that fit the mold of each style. I'm going to list everyone, from pick one down. Not everyone is realistic, but they fill out our board and will make it easier when we begin to make our big board later on in the list.

College Pitchers: Mark Appel (RHP), Jonathan Gray (RHP), Braden Shipley (RHP), Sean Manaea (LHP), Ryne Stanek (RHP), Marco Gonzales (LHP), Chris Anderson (RHP), Jonathan Crawford (RHP), Alex Gonzalez (RHP), Andrew Thurman (RHP), Ryan Eades (RHP), Aaron Blair (RHP), Bobby Wahl (RHP)

Count: 13

College Hitters: Kris Bryant (3B/OF), Colin Moran (3B), Hunter Renfroe (OF), Austin Wilson (OF), Aaron Judge (OF), Eric Jagielo (3B), DJ Peterson (3B/OF), Tim Anderson (SS), Phil Ervin (OF), Michael Lorenzen (OF)

Count: 9

High School Pitchers: Kohl Stewart (RHP), Trey Ball (LHP/OF), Devin Williams (RHP), Kyle Serrano (RHP), Ian Clarkin (LHP), Rob Kaminsky (LHP), Hunter Harvey (RHP), Connor Jones (LHP), Matt Krook (LHP), Phil Bickford (RHP)

Count: 10

High School Hitters: Austin Meadows (OF), Clint Frazier (OF), Dominic Smith (1B), Trey Ball (OF/LHP), Reese McGuire (C), JP Crawford (SS), Nick Ciuffo (C), Jon Denney (C), Billy McKinney (OF), Dustin Peterson (SS), Ryan Boldt (OF), Oscar Mercado (SS)

Count: 11 (excl. Ball)

So, we have 42 options right here to choose from. There are other options, like taking an underslot guy, but I think we should wait until we start looking at options for Pick 57 to figure out someone that we "LOVE" that we could take underslot at 28 and make a third splash with extra money at 57. All of these players should be overslot or slot value players, but correct me if I'm wrong. Feel free to add your own names to it. Let's Tier these players off, so that we have an idea of how they fit together.

BPA Tier

This tier represents the best player on the board. It's if someone for some reason falls drastically, we have to snatch them up for pure value purposes.

Mark Appel (College RHP), Jonathan Gray (College RHP), Braden Shipley (College RHP), Sean Manaea (College LHP), Kris Bryant (College 3B/OF), Colin Moran (College 3B), Kohl Stewart (HS RHP), Trey Ball (HS LHP/OF), Austin Meadows (HS OF), Clint Frazier (HS OF)

Count: 10

Elite Pick Tier

These players are the guys who I expect to go top 15, and I'd be super excited if they fell into our laps. Overslot or not, these guys would stand out as the best talents on the board

Ryne Stanek (College RHP), Hunter Renfroe (College OF), JP Crawford (HS SS)

Count: 3

Upper Value Tier

These guys are players I expect to go top 25, so they would be good value at pick 19 for us.

Chris Anderson (College RHP), Jonathan Crawford (College RHP), Austin Wilson (College OF), Aaron Judge (College OF), DJ Peterson (College 3B/OF), Phil Ervin (College OF), Ian Clarkin (HS LHP), Reese McGuire (HS C), Nick Ciuffo (HS C), Jon Denney (HS C)

Count: 10

Late Value Tier

Players here are good value at pick 28, probably a little reach at 19 unless we really like them

Marco Gonzales (College LHP), Eric Jagielo (College 3B), Tim Anderson (JC SS), Michael Lorenzen (College OF), Kyle Serrano (HS RHP), Rob Kaminsky (HS LHP), Hunter Harvey (HS RHP), Phil Bickford (HS RHP), Billy McKinney (HS OF)

Count: 8

First Round Reach

These guys could sneak in at 28, but I'd be thinking that we are stretching to nab one of these guys over the guys above

Alex Gonzalez (College RHP), Andrew Thurman (College RHP), Ryan Eades (College RHP), Aaron Blair (College RHP), Bobby Wahl (College RHP), Devin Williams (HS RHP), Connor Jones (HS LHP), Matt Krook (HS LHP), Dustin Peterson (HS SS), Ryan Boldt (HS OF), Oscar Mercado (HS SS)

Count: 11

Highlighting Combinations

Judging by the different tiers, here are some propositions:

Anderson (College RHP) and McKinney (HS OF)

Wilson (College OF) and Gonzales (College LHP)

Clarkin (HS LHP) and Anderson (JC SS)

[overslot] Stanek (College RHP) and [underslot] Mercado (SS)

McGuire (HS C) and Anderson (JC SS)

Crawford (HS SS) and Wahl (College RHP)

There are tons of possibilities, and you can replace guys in the same tier pretty easily (McGuire/Denney/Ciuffo). We can begin to narrow down the list in the comments section as you throw out new names, correct my errors, and form your own opinions on players that will help us further shape our board!

The only way your input gets heard is in the comments, so make sure to drop a line!

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