Padres MOD #1

Now that the initial wave of MOD threads have been posted, I decided to go ahead and get ours up and running. Padres pick at 13, 50, 69, 86, and 118. The obvious immediate interest is in 13 with secondary interest in the No. 50 pick, so for the moment we can keep discussion there and just brainstorm some ideas.

My basic philosophies . . .I don't draft for need. I don't draft for balance - if it happens that the player we like at each of our picks is a college guy, we go all college. If it's a pitcher, we'll have five arms. Above all, I do not worry about "consensus" or "overdrafts". There is no such thing as an overdraft, there are only players that we like, and players that we do not like. We'll stick to choosing from the former group.

Just to get this out of the way . . .players we won't be discussing here, because they are definitely going to get nowhere near us in this environment:

Mark Appel and Jon Gray, college RHPs - it'd be shocking if either escaped the top 5, and definitely not the top 10.

Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows, HS OFs - as a draft prospect, Frazier is something like a more athletic outfielder version of Mike Moustakas. Meadows has a more traditional first round body and better physical projection, but is still a little lacking in skills. Both will get jumped on early and it'd be surprising if either escaped the top 10. If either did, I suspect the Mets at 11 would be all over them.

Kohl Stewart, HS RHP - He's not really THAT standout among the prep class IMO, but he is the consensus best prep arm available, and in this upside-oriented environment it's not hard to see him going as high as No. 3. His separator is that he has the best breaking ball in the prep class and maybe the entire draft, but I usually don't get too enthused about a young RH arm with big sliders.

Colin Moran and Kris Bryant, college 3Bs - the best college bats available, and both are having whoppers of seasons. Hard to see either getting out of the top 10, even with defensive questions on both.

So, who do I want to look at for 13? Here's some initial ideas to get the conversation going.

Dominic Smith, HS 1B/"OF" - This kid is basically the same guy as Jon Singleton. Similar build, similar skill set. Very easy power. Poor defensive projection. Decent bet to be off the board.

Rob Kaminsky, HS LHP - Old for a HS guy, but I like him a lot. I expect him to be on the board here and to be an excellent value - I also expect a lot of teams in the mid-teens will try to target him aggressively, so we can jump them.

Connor Jones, HS RHP - Virginia prep with great arm, amazing work ethic. Need to assess his signability with UVA commit. Very big fan of this kid.

Andy McGuire, HS 3B - Probably an aggressive draft here but shouldn't make it to 50. I REALLY like him.

Casey Shane, HS RHP - Nasty, nasty TX arm. Lots of potential.

I'll post some more later. You may note the lack of college players on this list, but I'm afraid that the options aren't terrific here. I expect Austin Wilson will likely get taken aggressively before us and while I like Aaron Judge I don't really see special there. We'll talk it through.

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