Comparing the 2013 Prospect Lists
Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Chris St. John put together a composite list of Top Prospects for 2013. The list incorporates input from 12 different prospect lists from various sources, including Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus,, Marc Hulet at Fangraphs, Keith Law at ESPN, and my Top 150 Prospects List. The composite list runs to 190 players.
Chris also looks at where the various analysts differ and disagree.
As Chris puts it, "Commenters always complain about their favorite player missing from a prospect list or being ranked too low. How does this actually stack up when comparing different lists?"
Chris answers this question by looking at standard deviations of player rankings between lists, generating a set of "likes," "dislikes", "surprising inclusions," and "surprising exclusions" for each analyst.
For the Minor League Ball Top 150 list, Chris rates my "likes" as Yankees outfielder Tyler Austin (ranked 58th vs. consensus rank of 82) and Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roberto Osuna (75/95).
Austin is a pretty controversial prospect, showing up on the "like" list for me, Keith Law, Prospect 361, Scout.com, and Bullpen Banter lists, but excluded entirely from the Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs viewpoints.
I seem to be higher on Seattle Mariners shortstop prospect Brad Miller than anyone else: I had him 48th on my list and nobody else even ranked him. Other "surprising inclusions" include Astros pitcher Lance McCullers, Giants pitcher Chris Stratton, and Twins second baseman/outfielder Eddie Rosario.
Chris rates my "dislike" list as larger than most: Astros first baseman Jonathan Singleton (my rank 57, consensus 29), Detroit Tigers OF/3B Nick Castellanos (67/25), Colorado Rockies outfielder David Dahl (69/42), Mariners pitcher Taijuan Walker (19/7), Rays outfielder Wil Myers (7/4), Yankees outfield prospect Mason Williams (64/40), and Astros outfielder George Springer (72/46).
I'd agree with saying that I don't like Singleton and Castellanos as much as some people, but I'm very high on Dahl and Myers. I love Springer's tools but want to see how his strikeout issues play out against better pitching.
Overall, Chris St. John put together a great research resource here that should be of value and interest to all prospect followers. Check it out!