Potential 2013 Marlins Draft Picks

Hey everyone, welcome to installment six of this series. I have previously done the Yankees, Cardinals, Rays, Pirates, and Rangers (click on the team to find those posts).

On June 6, 2013, the first day of the MLB Amateur draft begins. The Miami Marlins have two first round picks (picks 6 and 35), and a second and third round pick (picks 44 and 80). Let's look at the recent drafting history of the Marlins to see what type of player the team will focus on, and try to identify some draft prospects they should target. Below is a list of players the Marlins have drafted over the last five years in the first three rounds:

Year Round Pick # Name Position School level
2012 1 9 Andrew Heaney LHP College
2012 3 104 Avery Romero SS HS
2012 3 127 Kolby Copeland CF HS
2011 1 14 Jose Fernandez RHP HS
2011 2 72 Adam Conley LHP College
2011 3 102 Conner Barron SS HS
2010 1 23 Christian Yelich 1B HS
2010 2 73 Rob Rasmussen LHP College
2010 3 104 JT Realmuto SS HS
2009 1 18 Chad James LHP HS
2009 2 66 Bryan Berglund RHP HS
2009 3 97 Marquise Cooper CF HS
2008 1 6 Kyle Skipworth C HS
2008 2 52 Brad Hand LHP HS
2008 3 83 Edgar Olmos LHP HS

The Marlins have had no additional picks beyond the guaranteed three, which is not ideal for a team so dependent on their farm system. Their extra pick this year is from the competitive balance round, which is new to the draft this year. And they got that from a trade with the Pirates last year. Of the 15 players drafted, 12 have been from the college ranks, or 80% of the players drafted. However, the three college players they've drafted have come in the last three years, one per year.

In the first round, 80% of their draft picks have been from high school, with their lone college first rounder being Andrew Heaney last year. In the second round, they have picked prep and college players evenly. But they haven't gone with a high schooler in the second round since 2009. In the third round, 100% of their picks are from the high school ranks. Since 2010, they have always picked at least one college player in the first three rounds. This year, the Marlins have 4 picks in the first three rounds. Given their drafting history above, we can expect three high school players and one college player.

So what type of players do they focus on? In the first round, they have picked both prep bats and arms 40% of the time since 2008. In the second round, they have gone with both prep arms and college arms 50% of the time. In the third round, they've gone with a prep bat 83% of the time, or every year since 2009.

They've gone with a prep bat 47% of the time and a prep arm 33% of the time. They've picked a college arm 20% of the time. They have not picked a college bat, so they are tailor-made for this draft, given its weakness is college bats, and its depth is in the prep ranks. Overall, they've picked an arm 53% of the time, and a bat 47% of the time in the first three rounds. Of those bats picked, they've picked an SS 43% of the time, a center fielder 29% of the time, and a C and 1B 14% of the time. Out of the 53% of their picks that were pitchers, they've picked a LHP 75% of the time.

Given their draft history, what type of draft could we expect from the Marlins this year? It seems reasonable to expect them to pick a prep player in the first round, as they've done 80% of the time in the last five years. With 4 picks, we would expect two bats and two arms, with one of the arms coming from the college ranks. Looking at their tendencies over the last five years, I would expect the first round picks to be a prep arm and a prep bat. In the second and third round, I am going to look at a college arm and a prep bat, in that order.

Looking at my personal draft rankings, who would be available that fits these descriptions. Their first pick is pick 6. Let's look at my top 15 players:

First name Last name POS State High School College
Mark Appel RHP California
Austin Meadows OF Georgia Grayson
Jonathan Gray RHP Oklahoma
Clint Frazier OF Georgia Loganville
Sean Manaea LHP Indiana
Indiana State
Kris Bryant 1B California
San Diego
Ryne Stanek RHP Arkansas
Kohl Stewart RHP Texas St. Pius X
Jonathan Denney C Oklahoma Yukon
Colin Moran 3B North Carolina
North Carolina
Chris Anderson RHP Florida
Reese McGuire C Washington Kentwood
John Paul Crawford SS California Lakewood
Braden Shipley RHP Nevada
Trey Ball OF Indiana New Castle

Looking at the prep players listed, Meadows and Frazier should be gone by pick 6. If not, they become the favorites, as toolsy CF prospects. That leaves us with Stewart as the lone arm, Crawford as a SS, Ball as an outfielder, and the two catchers Denney and McGuire. They've picked HS SS 20% of the time, so I am going with JP Crawford. Crawford, nephew of Carl Crawford, is the best combination of bat and defense at SS from the prep ranks this year. He should be able to stick at SS, and have an above average bat with some pop and above average speed. At 6'2" 175, he has some room to grow and add some power to his bat. I see him with a ceiling somewhere between Starlin Castro and Erick Aybar - average to above average defense, .280-.300 BA, 10-15 hr, 20-25 SB. Not to bad for the sixth pick in the draft. So with the sixth pick in the 2013 draft, the Marlins select JP Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS, California.

The Marlins next pick is pick 35 in Comp Round A, from the Gaby Sanchez trade with the Pirates last summer. Here are players 30-40 on my personal board:

First name Last name POS State High School College
Kevin Ziomek LHP Tennesee
Nick Ciuffo C South Carolina Lexington
Trevor Williams RHP Arizona
Arizona State
Stephen Gonsalves LHP California Cathedral Catholic
Chris Okey C Florida Eustis
Tom Windle LHP Minnesota
Brett Morales RHP Florida King
Andy McGuire 3B Virginia James Madison
Clinton Hollon RHP Kentucky Woodford County
Dustin Driver RHP Washington Wenatchee
Eric Jagielo OF Indiana
Notre Dame

We have 4 HS arms here, but three were picked in previous team's pieces before pick 35. The one who wasn't is Clinton Hollon. Carlos Salazar is at 44, and Jonah Wesely at 46. Wesely is a left-hander, which gives him a boost, given the Marlins picking LHP with 75% of the arms they pick. However, we can get Wesely at 44, so let's look at the college arms. Ziomek and Williams probably won't make it to 35,and Tom Windle is a lefty as well. So let's go with Tom Windle. Windle is a 6'4" southpaw with above average command of a low 90s fastball, a very good slider, and both a curve and change-up that have potential. He was one of the best pitchers in the Cape Cod league last summer, and threw a no-hitter already this spring. As of April 26, he has a 1.35 ERA and a 57/14 K/BB ratio. So with pick 35, the Marlins select Tom Windle, LHP, University of Minnesota, Minnesota.

There next pick is pick 44. Here is who is ranked 39-49 on my board:

First name Last name POS State High School College
Dustin Driver RHP Washington Wenatchee
Eric Jagielo OF Indiana
Notre Dame
Jeremy Martinez C California Mater Dei
Carlos Salazar RHP California Kerman
Cavan Biggio 3B Texas St. Thomas
Jonah Wesely LHP California Tracy
Jacoby Jones OF Louisiana
Louisiana State
Hunter Harvey RHP North Carolina Catawba
Travis Demeritte 3B Georgia Winder Barrow
Hunter Renfroe C Mississippi
Mississippi State
Jan Hernandez 3B Puerto Rico Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy

As we said above, we are interested in Jonah Weseley here at 44. Wesely is a 6'2", 210 lbs high school LHP. He has a low 90s fastball from a deceptive ¾ armslot, with a strong 11-5 curveball, and a developing change-up. He has a commitment to UCLA, but should be signable at pick 44. So with the 44th pick in the 2013 draft, the Marlins select Jonah Wesley, LHP, Tracy HS, California.

The Marlins third round pick comes at pick 80. Here are players 75-85 on my board:

First name Last name POS State High School College
Chris Oakley RHP New Jersey St. Augustine Prep
Trey Masek RHP Texas
Texas Tech
Trey Williams 3B California
Valencia JC of the Canyons
Cord Sandberg OF Florida Manatee
Matthew McPhearson OF Maryland Riverdale Baptist
Brian Navarreto C Florida Arlington Country Day
Chris Rivera SS California El Dorado
Keegan Thompson RHP Alabama Cullman
Mason Katz 1B Louisiana
Louisiana State
Josh Hart OF Georgia Parkview
Chad Pinder SS Virginia
Virginia Tech

At this pick, we want to look at prep bats. We selected a SS with our first pick, let's look at the outfielders available, since that is the second-most common type of bat the Marlins pick, focusing on center fielders. Sandberg is a corner outfielder, so no to him. That leaves us McPhearson and Hart. I think Hart is the best fit for the Marlins, and is a very good top of the batting-order prospect. He has more projectability and size than McPhearson, and should still be an above-average CF. He has a Dexter Fowler-type ceiling, with some power projection, and above average speed. He's probably a tough sign at pick 80, but the slot value should be around $700,000 (last year's +10%). They should save some money on the first three picks, and should be able to afford Hart at 80. So with the 80th pick in the 2013 draft, the Marlins select Josh Hart, CF, Parkview HS, Georgia.

Here's the final results:

6. JP Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS, California

35. Tom Windle, LHP, University of Minnesota, Minnesota

44. Jonah Wesley, LHP, Tracy HS, California

80. Josh Hart, CF, Parkview HS, Georgia

So what do you think? Does this look like a reasonable draft for the Miami Marlins? Who do you think is a better fit, and why?

The next team is the Oakland A's. Vote below for the next team you would like to see.

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