FanPost

Are Minor League stats predictive of future success?

I read a new blog a little bit today and was disheartened by something I read.

"Of course, common prospect wisdom tells us (if not to just ignore minor league, especially pitchers, numbers altogether) that numbers put up by pitchers too old for a league mean nothing really."

If "common prospect wisdom" says to ignore minor league stats, I need to change common wisdom, because that is false, in my opinion.

I want to take a vote to see how many people believe this. If you say no, they are not predictive, I would like to have an opportunity to try to change your mind.

I don't want names of players, years they played or any information as to who this person is. I want you to give me some data and I will tell you what kind of player they are likely to be. Essentially a Baseball Reference season is enough data to run this but three years, or even three levels worth is the best.

For pitchers

Give me three seasons of data from any level(essentially a BR stat line)::

age Level W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H HR R ER BB IBB SO

and I will give you these MLB stats for their career line:

SP/RP Impact Arm(yes/no) ERA k/9 bb/9 h/9 hr/9 debut Age MLB %

For hitters

Give me this data(essentially a BR stat line):

level age AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO

I will give you this: (based on 500 AB)

AB R H Dbl Tpl HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG

I can also give you peaks and minimums that I expect for hitters too, but I will only do that if the range is great.

Seriously guys, test me. I want you to trust the numbers. This isn't infallible but it does work.

If it's off, let me have it. I want people to realize that predicting MLB success from even low level minor league stats is possible.

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