FanPost

Which teams assess their own prospects the best?




I don't have any research to share with you guys, but I think its a worthwhile question to discuss. Lots of times, we see teams trade away consensus top prospects for underwhelming returns, and we wonder what they're thinking, for example, last year, when the Diamonbacks traded away Trevor Bauer. It could just be that the team has a better assessment of their own prospects than we do, as what appears to be the case with Bauer. If such a notion is true, that teams know their prospects well enough to make decisions that are ahead of our information curve, then it might be the case that some teams are better than others at scouting their own prospects, choosing to trade away top prospects that they know are overrated, and holding onto prospects they know are underrated. An example would be the Rays using Delmon Young to net themselves Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. The fact that the Rays saw Delmon Young, everyone's top prospect at the time, as touchable, may be a testament to their scouting staff. Can such an ability be at all quantified? Can we see what the bust rate on prospects traded away by each team are, and whether there is any consistency to that? Even without such quantification, does anyone have wild speculation as to which teams are better at this?

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