Prospect Retrospectives: 2013 Updated Index

Ken Griffey Jr - Jed Jacobsohn

Prospect Retrospectives have been a long-term feature here at Minor League Ball dating back to the very first Retro in 2006. This feature will continue in 2013, but this year I'm changing things a little bit and organizing them into a list with specific "Lessons Learned" indicated. We will be revisiting/rewriting/updating old retros as well as writing new ones.


Craig Biggio, 2B-C
Vida Blue, LHP
Michael Bourn, OF

George Brett, 3B
Marlon Byrd, OF
Chris Carpenter, RHP

Cesar Cedeno, OF
Brian Cole, OF
Carlos Delgado, 1B
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
Tom Glavine, LHP
Curtis Granderson, OF
Ken Griffey Jr, OF
Vladimir Guerrero, OF
Felix Hernandez, RHP
Doug Fister, RHP
Aaron Harang, RHP
Bo Jackson, OF
Derek Jeter, SS
Randy Johnson, LHP
John Lackey, RHP
Kenny Lofton, OF
Jed Lowrie, SS
Edgar Martinez, DH-3B
Justin Morneau, 1B
Brandon Moss, OF-1B
Jonathan Papelbon, RHP
Mike Piazza, C
Juan Pierre, OF
Mark Prior, RHP
Albert Pujols, 1B
Edgar Renteria, SS
J.R. Richard, RHP
Ruben Rivera, OF
CC Sabathia, LHP
Johan Santana, LHP
Jason Schmidt, RHP
Mike Schmidt, 3B
Seung Song, RHP
Jim Thome, 1B-3B-DH
Chase Utley, 2B
Robin Ventura, 3B
Brandon Webb, RHP
Vernon Wells, OF
Delmon Young, OF


****Rapid improvements aren't always illusionary and can make a big difference (Example: Doug Fister, Kenny Lofton, Johan Santana, Edgar Renteria, Jim Thome, Cesar Cedeno)
****Your gut instincts can pan out (Example: Aaron Harang, Brandon Webb, Curtis Granderson)
****Pay attention to local talent. (Examples: Albert Pujols)
****Context and team support matter a lot (Examples: Chris Carpenter)
****Don't be afraid to go against the crowd (Examples: Jed Lowrie, Brandon Webb, Granderson)
****Staying healthy is a skill (Examples: Jed Lowrie, Brandon Webb, Cedeno)
****Sometimes a Grade A prospect really is a Grade A prospect (Felix Hernandez, Craig Biggio, Derek Jeter, Robin Ventura, Ken Griffey Jr, Vida Blue)
****Football Sucks (Bo Jackson)
****Go beyond superficial ethnic categories when looking for comps (Jacoby Ellsbury)
****Rookie Ball stats are not necessarily predictive (J.R. Richard, Derek Jeter, Mike Piazza, Kenny Lofton, Thome, many others)
****Age-Relative-To-League is very important, but NOT the only thing to consider (Delmon Young, Ruben Rivera)
****Makeup matters (Delmon Young, Ruben Rivera, Kenny Lofton, Granderson, Cedeno)


****If a pitcher throws strikes, he has something to build on. (Doug Fister, Aaron Harang, Brandon Webb)
****If a pitcher gets lots of grounders, it can help compensate for a low strikeout rate (Doug Fister, Brandon Webb)
****Struggling pitchers with live arms can improve dramatically (Chris Carpenter, J.R. Richard, Jason Schmidt, Johan Santana, Randy Johnson)
****A good pitcher can (probably) succeed in any role (Papelbon, Santana)
****If a pitcher says he is hurt, believe him (J.R. Richard)


****If you'll hit, you'll play. (Examples: Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau, Mike Piazza)
****Low strikeout rates are good. (Examples: Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau, Derek Jeter, Mike Piazza, Robin Ventura, Juan Pierre, Renteria, George Brett, Edgar Martinez)
****Truly outstanding tools can partially cover for marginal skills (Bo Jackson, Kenny Lofton)
****Tools don't always cover for skill problems (Delmon Young, Ruben Rivera)
****Remember to account for defense (Michael Bourn, Robin Ventura, Kenny Lofton, Renteria)
****Plate discipline matters (Delmon Young)

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