2012 Community Mock Draft: American League East Review

Moving forward with the 2012 Community Mock Draft Reviews, with the American League East.


2012 Community Mock Draft Review: American League East

Baltimore Orioles
1-4) Kevin Gausman, RHP, Louisiana State
2-65) Mitch Nay, 3B, Arizona HS
3-99) Tim Cooney, LHP, Wake Forest
John's Take: Gausman is a realistic and reasonable pick at fourth-overall with dominating upside. Questions about Nay's defense keep him out of the first round, but he has enormous power and could/should be signable away from Arizona State in the second (though probably not any lower than that). Cooney is a safe guy who lacks big upside but should get to the majors at a reliever at least. This looks Orioley to me.


Boston Red Sox
1-24) Matt Smoral, LHP, Ohio HS
1-31) Tanner Rahier, SS, California HS
1S-37) Chris Beck, RHP, Georgia Southern
2-87) D'Vone McClure, OF, Arkansas HS
3-118) Alec Asher, RHP, Polk County JC (Fl)
John's Take: This looks Bosoxy to me. Smoral's been injured all spring and has North Carolina beckoning him, but is considered signable in the first round from what I've heard. Rahier has solid tools, plays like his shoes are on fire, and is also considered signable in this spot. Beck's stock has slipped some this spring with some velocity decline but is a reasonable supplemental choice that fits recent Red Sox patterns, while McClure is raw, risky, but talented. Asher is one of the best arms in the JC ranks. Overall, looks solid to me.


New York Yankees
1-30) Shane Watson, RHP, California HS
2-88) Dane Phillips, C, Oklahoma City University
2-94) Preston Beck, OF, University of Texas-Arlington
3-124) Alex Young, LHP, Illinois HS
John's Take: I like Watson at the end of the first round or early supplemental and I think he fits well here, with a good balance of upside and safety. Phillips can hit and if you believe in his glove, he's a definitely solid choice in the second round, if not sooner. Beck's power stands out in a weak college class and it wouldn't surprise me to see him go as high as the supplemental round, so I think this is a good pick, too. Young is a projectable cold-weather high school arm but might not be signable away from TCU with third-round slot money. I like his talent, though.


Tampa Bay Rays
1-25) Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State
2-89) Jesse Winker, OF, Florida HS
3-119) Matt Koch, RHP, University of Louisville
John's Take: Marrero's glove will play and we know the Rays have shown an interest in loading up with shortstops. The Rays scouting director disappeared after the first round. I wasn't familiar with his thinking, so I have no idea if the other picks fit into his strategy. I chose Winker because the system needs power and they showed some interest in a similar talent (Josh Sale) in 2010. Koch is a live-but-erratic arm who could move quickly in a relief role, but he's got starter potential too and seems like the kind of guy the Rays coaches could refine effectively.


Toronto Blue Jays
1-17) Lucas Giolito, RHP, California HS
1-22) Lewis Brinson, OF, Florida HS
1S-50) Edwin Diaz, RHP, Puerto Rico HS
1S-58) Jesmuel Valentin Diaz, SS, Puerto Rico HS
1S-60) Christian Walker, 1B, South Carolina
2-81) Nolan Sanburn, RHP, University of Arkansas
3-112) Eddie Butler, RHP, Radford
John's Take: Easily the most controversial of the mock drafts. It seems doubtful that Giolito would sign for 17th-slot money, so to sign Giolito, it would likely be necessary to undercut Brinson's bonus. I doubt either him or his agent would go along with that. Diaz and JVD have plenty of upside but both of them are related to former major league players, are familiar with the leverage process, and would not be as easy to undercut as Puerto Rican players have been in the past, especially JVD who has an LSU scholarship.
On the other hand, Christian Walker has a long track record and, given the lack of college hitting, could easily sneak this high for a team that needs to save money. I love Sanburn's arm, and Butler has enough upside to be intriguing.
A year ago, this would be a terrific, very Blue Jay draft, but the new CBA makes this hard to pull off. If they really did this, I would expect them to sign Giolito with Brinson and JVD heading to college, or to sign Brinson and JVD, with Giolito heading to college.
It's bold, and boldness can carry you a long way. When it works, you're Heinz Guderian. When it doesn't, you're John Bell Hood.

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