Good morning/afternoon my Padres brothers(?)! With the Mock Draft only about a week away and mrkupe running on fumes, it's time to get serious. One thing that I've really been struggling with is that I just haven't been impressed by a lot of the players near the top of the draft - there are a lot of guys who look better on paper than in reality. As I've noted, I'm unwilling to go boom-or-bust on a prospect unless he's a Giolito or Buxton with 60+ grades across the board. At the same time, I fully agree that a high-ceiling low-floor type does not make sense for the Padres at the top of the draft. I imagine the organization would agree, and I think we should pay heed to what the team did last year with multiple high picks, looking aggressively to the prep ranks. Hopefully we won't get a kid with a bum shoulder like Michael Kelly (who took about half the money he was hoping for after this problem was discovered). Some players have been struck from the list, and there is one new addition.
PLAYERS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PICK 7
Lucas Giolito - I think he'll be gone, but the gamble would make sense with so many picks, and I'm on board with taking him at this spot if he can be had. He is by no means a finished product but he has frontline starter potential.
Lance McCullers - I am intrigued with his pedigree, athleticism, and pure power stuff. His two best pitches are better than Max Fried's two best pitches, even if Fried fits the classic projection pitcher mold.
Max Fried - Hard to get this kind of overall package, but I can't shake the feeling that his realistic upside isn't quite as pronounced as I would hope for. Still has a future 70 breaking ball, but the velocity really is average at the moment and he needs to build stamina.
Gavin Cecchini - My intuition on his bat is strong, and he's a high makeup player who is going to get every chance to stick at SS. He doesn't have a single bad tool. He is a potential impact player.
David Dahl, OF, Alabama HS - At first I wasn't considering Dahl, but after some reflection, I have to say that I love his scouting reports and I love his tape. He has an unbelievably smooth and consistent swing with good bat speed, and every one of his tools is average if not better. He also has an advanced approach for his age, which really is not something that can be overvalued. Looks awesome when he faces elite competition. I think he can be a high-impact player.
I don't think the list is going to change from here. I just can't get behind Courtney Hawkins - great athlete and great power but I don't think he is going to be enough of a hitter to make it all work. Below-average hitting skill and below-average approach is a bad combination to gamble on at 7. So, rank these five guys for me in order of preference if you will.
After pick 7, I've decided to put an emphasis on athletes with pure hitting skills and power stuff. I'll list the slot values at each pick so you can get an idea of what we have to work with re: signability. Feel free to list in order of preference or just name your favorite 1-2 players at each spot. You can chime in with extra players, but try to keep it to a minimum of one extra player. This is just through pick 70 at the moment.
33 ($1,525,000) - Tanner Rahier, Mitch Brown, Ty Buttrey, Hunter Virant, Nolan Fontana
44 ($1,165,800) - Washington HS RHP Mitchell Gueller, Texas HS SS Austin Aune, Travis Jankowski, Peter O'Brien, Alex Wood, Austin Maddox, Nolan Sanburn
55 ($925,900) - Adam Brett Walker, Edwin Diaz, Jeff Gelalich, Jake Barrett, Clate Schmidt, Cody Poteet
68 (somehow this changed from what I last saw) ($757,900)/ 70 ($734,900)- Joey Demichele, Stephen Johnson, Brandon Thomas, Brady Rogers, Alec Rash, Stephen Bruno, Brett Mooneyham, Florida JC RHP Brandon Welch, Carson Fulmer