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Michael Choice vs. Victor Roache

Just curious about how you guys would compare these two fairly similar players.

Choice wasn't highly recruited out of high school, though he scouted by some Big 12 teams. He ended up going to a smaller school in the University of Texas a Arlington which plays in the Southland Conference against relatively weaker competition than larger conferences.

Choice put up strong numbers over three years on the way to being a highly regarded player entering the 2010 amateur draft. Ranked as the #11 overall prospect in the draft according to Baseball America, Choice was arguably the best power hitting prospect available among the college bats (sans Bryce Harper), and was taken in the first round by the A's (one spot higher than his ranking) with the 10th overall pick.

Like Choice, Victor Roache wasn't heavily recruited coming out of high school. Though he got some looks from schools such as Michigan, and was taken by the Detroit Tigers in the 25th round of the 2010 draft, he decided on Georgia Southern which plays in the less heralded Southern Conference. Pre-wrist injury Baseball America has Victor Roache ranked as the 9th best player available for the 2012 amateur draft. He was considered to be the best power-hitting prospect among the college bats available, much as Choice was in his draft year, but will probably not be taken as high as originally expected because of an injury that has caused him to miss almost the entire 2012 season.

Similar stories (minus the injury), ostensibly similar profiles. But let's look closer.

Michael Choice, OF, 6'0 190, R/R

University of Texas at Arlington

(Southland Conference)

BA Ranking #11

November 10th, 1989

20 years 6 months 26 days (on Draft)

College Stats

(2008)

50g 197ab .376/.440/.558 7hr 51rbi 9(2b) 3(3b) 21bb 35so 8sb 0cs

(2009)

56g 225ab .413/.494/.644 11hr 52rbi 13(2b) 3(3b) 29so 30bb 5sb 3cs

(2010)

60g 196ab .383/.572/.704 16hr 59rbi 11(2b) 2(3b) 76bb 54so 12sb 4cs

Victor Roache, OF, 6'1 215, R/R

Georgia Southern University

(Southern Conference)

BA Ranking #9

September 17th, 1991

20 years 8 months 20 days (on Draft)

College Stats

(2010)

47g 151ab .252/.408/.464 8hr 38rbi 6(2b) 1(3b) 31bb 42so 7sb 2cs

(2011)

62g 230ab .326/.438/.778 30hr 84rbi 10(2b) 2(3b) 37bb 42so 3sb 4cs

(2012)

6g 17ab .412/.600/.765 2hr 5rbi 0(2b) 0(3b) 7bb 1so 0sb 0cs

Now there are a few important things to take note of when comparing the two players stats.

Health

The first obvious one, is that Roache doesn't have much of a junior season to compare to Choice's due to the afforementioned injury. It would be unfair to compare a pro-rated version of Roache's 2012 stats over such a small sample size as 6 games, but for general curiousity here is what they MIGHT look pro-rated over the same number of at bats.

*23hr 58rbi 0(2b) 0(3b) 81bb 12so*

While the homeruns and rbi look to be just about what Roache would be capable of in a healthy season, we have to take any projection with a huge grain of salt, unless you believe that Roache would have hit 0 doubles or triples, or that he'd strikeout only 11 times while hitting .412 over an entire season. Exactly.

Still, it shows that while Choice led Roache in many offensive categories, Roache clearly outpaced him in the power department. It should also be taken into account that Roache was considered much more raw the Choice heading into college, though he is 2 months older than Choice was at the same stage.

Bats

The NCAA hadn't begun to use the new power suduing BBCOR 5 bats until after the 2010 season (i.e. Choice's last season). While no one can say what effect the new bats would have had on Choice's aggregate power production, we know for certain that they clearly had no effect on Roache's. Add that to the fact that Roache's hit very well in the Cape Cod league, showing his comfort level with wood bats.

Conferences

Though Roache's Georgia Southern does not play in one of the major conferences, the schools against which they compete in the Southern Conference are much stronger (Elon, Samford, The Citadel, Western Carolina) than the ones Choice's U of T at Arlington would have played against in the Southland Conference (Sam Houston State, Texas State, Stephen F. Austin).

Position

One major advantage Choice had over Roache was his ability to play any outfield position including centerfield at the time. Roache is pretty much a left fielder only, and not an asset there either, and he'll have even lesser relative value should he have to move to first base or designated hitter. This I think has to be a major deciding point between the two, though I like them both.

So who do you guys think is going to end up being the better pro and why? How would you rate or compare them?

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