Prospect Analysis: Elite Prospects from 2007
To finish the "learning from old prospect lists" series, I decided to take a look at the elite prospects from 2007. Although we have less data on these guys than with the previous 2003-2006 lists, we can at least distinguish the complete busts from the guys who are having/will have successful careers. Remember, for these reports I am only looking at prospects graded with an A or A-. Anyone B+ or lower wasn't included, although B+ is very strong grade.
The list is organized alphabetically. Some of these guys we have already talked about.
Jay Bruce: 514 games, 2076 PA, peak WAR 5.4, total WAR 11.3. Excellent
Ryan Braun: 729 games, 3177 PA, peak WAR 7.8, total WAR 25.2. Excellent
Reid Brignac: 240 games, 694 PA, peak WAR 1.5, total WAR 0.4. When he got the grade, he was seen as a strong hitter who needed to work on his defense. His glove improved, but his bat slipped. Lesson: breakthroughs in the California League can't be trusted.
Billy Butler: 629 games, 2861 PA, peak WAR 2.9, total WAR 6.8. Doesn't look that hot on WAR, but it is hard to call a .297/.360/.458 hitter, +120 OPS hitter a failure in my mind.
Alex Gordon: 559 games, 2332 PA, peak WAR 5.3, total WAR 11.8. Figured things out.
Andy LaRoche: 403 games, 1332 PA, peak WAR 2.6, total WAR 1.1. Supposed to become a guy who could hit for average, get on base, show some power, and play strong defense. Didn't happen, obviously. Injuries were an issue.
Adam Lind: 621 games, 2534 PA, peak WAR 3.7, total WAR 4.3: Aside from a monster year in 2009, he hasn't lived up to expectations though he does have considerable power (106 career homers).
Evan Longoria: 563 games, 2414 PA, peak WAR 7.6, total WAR 26.9: Excellent.
Andrew McCutchen: 420 games, 1824 PA, peak WAR 5.7, total WAR 12.9. Excellent.
Hunter Pence: 734 games, 3099 PA, peak WAR 4.7, total WAR 19.3: Very steady, consistent producer.
Troy Tulowitzki: 697 games, 2974 PA, peak WAR 6.5, total WAR 24.5: Excellent.
Justin Upton: 581 games, 2402 PA, Peak WAR 6.4, Total WAR 14.6. Excellent so far.
Brandon Wood: 272 games, 751 PA, Peak WAR 0.1, Total WAR -2.6. Undone by inability to make contact.
Chris Young: 784 games, 3225 PA, Peak WAR 4.6, Total WAR 13.5: Solid regular.
Delmon Young: 729 games, 2967 PA, Peak WAR 1.8, Total WAR 1.6: He's just no fun to write about.
Big busts are Brignac and Wood, who was already present on the '03-06 list. LaRoche busted but injuries were a factor there. Lind hasn't been great but he's held a job and has power.
Adding this group into the 2003-2006 players seems to improve the success rate. I don't think we learned anything new here, other than a reminder to be suspicious about breakthroughs in the California League.
Pitchers coming up tomorrow.