Prospect Analysis: Elite Prospects from 2007

Prospect Analysis: Elite Prospects from 2007

To finish the "learning from old prospect lists" series, I decided to take a look at the elite prospects from 2007. Although we have less data on these guys than with the previous 2003-2006 lists, we can at least distinguish the complete busts from the guys who are having/will have successful careers. Remember, for these reports I am only looking at prospects graded with an A or A-. Anyone B+ or lower wasn't included, although B+ is very strong grade.

The list is organized alphabetically. Some of these guys we have already talked about.

HITTERS (Alphabetical):

Jay Bruce: 514 games, 2076 PA, peak WAR 5.4, total WAR 11.3. Excellent
Ryan Braun:
729 games, 3177 PA, peak WAR 7.8, total WAR 25.2. Excellent
Reid Brignac: 240 games, 694 PA, peak WAR 1.5, total WAR 0.4. When he got the grade, he was seen as a strong hitter who needed to work on his defense. His glove improved, but his bat slipped. Lesson: breakthroughs in the California League can't be trusted.

Billy Butler:
629 games, 2861 PA, peak WAR 2.9, total WAR 6.8. Doesn't look that hot on WAR, but it is hard to call a .297/.360/.458 hitter, +120 OPS hitter a failure in my mind.
Alex Gordon:
559 games, 2332 PA, peak WAR 5.3, total WAR 11.8. Figured things out.
Andy LaRoche:
403 games, 1332 PA, peak WAR 2.6, total WAR 1.1. Supposed to become a guy who could hit for average, get on base, show some power, and play strong defense. Didn't happen, obviously. Injuries were an issue.

Adam Lind:
621 games, 2534 PA, peak WAR 3.7, total WAR 4.3: Aside from a monster year in 2009, he hasn't lived up to expectations though he does have considerable power (106 career homers).
Evan Longoria: 563 games, 2414 PA, peak WAR 7.6, total WAR 26.9: Excellent.
Andrew McCutchen: 420 games, 1824 PA, peak WAR 5.7, total WAR 12.9. Excellent.

Hunter Pence:
734 games, 3099 PA, peak WAR 4.7, total WAR 19.3: Very steady, consistent producer.
Troy Tulowitzki: 697 games, 2974 PA, peak WAR 6.5, total WAR 24.5: Excellent.
Justin Upton: 581 games, 2402 PA, Peak WAR 6.4, Total WAR 14.6. Excellent so far.

Brandon Wood:
272 games, 751 PA, Peak WAR 0.1, Total WAR -2.6. Undone by inability to make contact.
Chris Young:
784 games, 3225 PA, Peak WAR 4.6, Total WAR 13.5: Solid regular.
Delmon Young: 729 games, 2967 PA, Peak WAR 1.8, Total WAR 1.6: He's just no fun to write about.

Big busts are Brignac and Wood, who was already present on the '03-06 list. LaRoche busted but injuries were a factor there. Lind hasn't been great but he's held a job and has power.

Adding this group into the 2003-2006 players seems to improve the success rate. I don't think we learned anything new here, other than a reminder to be suspicious about breakthroughs in the California League.

Pitchers coming up tomorrow.

Log In Sign Up

Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Minor League Ball

You must be a member of Minor League Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Minor League Ball. You should read them.

Join Minor League Ball

You must be a member of Minor League Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Minor League Ball. You should read them.




Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.