2012 Baseball Draft: High School Prospects 1-5
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 8:00 AM EST
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Before I get going to much here, I want to be up front with you guys. I have not seen every player in my top 100 lists. I haven't seen any of them in person. I have seen several of them multiple times on TV though. These five I have seen play at least once and as many as four times in live games as well as multiple showcase videos or other video from game situations. I have a very good feel for these guys.
There are others I don't have a great feel for, and I will say that when it applies. I will likely reference other articles that I have read as well as link to video. I hope to link to a video for every player so you can see what I am seeing as well. This summer I hope to attend at least one showcase if not more so I can see some of these guys in person. That's my goal. Without further ado, here is the first five.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard Westlake, CA
The 6'6" righty has been at the top of the 2012 prep list for quite a while. Giolito could be on his way to breaking the streak of never having a Prep right hander taken 1st overall. Giolito has the highest ceiling of anyone in the 2012 draft. The amazing thing is that his floor is very high as well. As long as he doesn't have injury issues, he could have a floor of a #2 starter with the ceiling of an ace. His fastball reaches as high as 99 MPH but is usually a 94-96 MPH well commanded pitch. It has late movement and good sink.
His breaking ball is truly a plus pitch right now with potential to be a 70 pitch or better. He commands it well. It has tight spin and is more consistent than you would expect from a 17 year old. He looks more like a player who has spent 2-3 years in college or pro ball. His change is the third-best pitch but is still a very good pitch. His mechanics are smooth and clean. He uses his full body in his delivery and has a big durable frame. When the draft rolls around, I can't see him sliding out of the top five and has a shot at being the 1st overall pick. If by some chance he slides down and opts for college, he will head to UCLA.
Trey Williams, 3B, Valencia, CA
Williams is the son of journeyman major leaguer Eddie Williams and has all the tools to make it to the majors and hopefully surpass his fathers' accomplishments. At 6'2", 205 and extremely athletic, he could be a very good 3B due to soft hands and smooth movements. He's handled shortstop at the high school level but will be a 3B at the next level.
On the offensive side, Trey can rake. The smooth swinging righty should have an above average bat with above average power as well. He's not a burner but he has solid average speed. He could be a .280 type hitter with 25 home runs annually. He's physically mature and has good baseball instincts. Williams could be a future middle of the order hitter with a good glove as well. He is likely a top 15 pick in this year's draft but could slide if he makes it past that. He is committed to Pepperdine and that usually is a pretty solid commitment.
Carlos Correa, SS, PR Baseball Academy
Correa is a 6'4", 190 pound Shortstop that is extremely athletic. He is long and agile but his height and size may make him move off short at some point simply due to outgrowing it. He has very good actions at the position as well as a strong arm. It's an outside shot he can stick at the position but it is possible. A lot will depend on how much he grows in the next 2-3 years. If he does move over to 3B, he could be a well above average defender.
At the plate, Correa displays a ton of potential. He is long with big levers and a pretty short swing considering that. He generates big power potential. His hit tool isn't the greatest right now and needs work. He tones down his swing in games and has some contact issues as well as discipline issues at the plate, but that is nothing unusual for a young kid out of Puerto Rico.
Whoever chooses Correa will get a very projectable, potentially elite talent that is one of the youngest players available in this years' draft. I can't see him sliding out of the top 10 unless the bat totally fails him this spring. If he were to attend college, he is committed to Miami.
Walker Weickel, RHP, Olympia, FL
When looking at a high school pitcher, I tend to expect them to lose 2 MPH unless they are thin and look like strengthening will add velocity. Weickel fits this by throwing 96 on occasion. Even if he only touches 96 and often throws 2-4 MPH less than that so that he is more under control, you are still talking about a plus fastball.
At 6'6", 205 LBS, he is a huge kid. He is very athletic and repeats his delivery well. He has long legs and arms and uses his height well in his delivery. He also uses his limbs to cause some deception in his delivery. His breaking ball can get a little loopy and he will have to tighten that up for it to be as effective as it can be but it flashes plus potential. His change is in the same ballpark as his breaking ball. It's inconsistent but shows flashes of a plus pitch.
While Weickel isn't likely to be an Ace, he is more likely to be a #2 or #3 starter depending on how well his secondary pitches develop, he is likely to be a major league caliber pitcher with 3 average or better pitches. He also has a small chance at gaining a few MPH's on his fastball with professional strength training and coaching. That is one reason he is as high as he is. He will likely be taken in the top 15 picks. If he doesn't sign, he is also committed to go to Miami.
Max Fried, LHP, Harvard-Westlake, CA
Max Fried should make scouts happy. He pitches as the same high school as Giolito and is a crazy good prospect. He is 6'3", 170 LBS and is the definition of projectable. He is thin and loose in his delivery and can already touch 95. He may even gain a couple MPH as he gains strength. That is scary from a lefty.
That isn't even to mention his impressive secondary pitches. He almost floats through his delivery. His breaking ball is a bit loopy and inconsistent as well but we are talking about an 18 year old here. It could be a 70 pitch, as he commands it well. His change also flashes plus potential.
A lefty with 3 average to well above average pitches projects as a #3 starter all the way up to an Ace. There are a variety of outcomes that could happen here but the potential for a top of the rotation lefty shouldn't last long. I would be surprised if he isn't taken in the top 10 picks. If he opts for college, UCLA is his destination.
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Thanks for this, Matt
What are we looking at on Giolito right now? Something like this?
60/70 FB
60/70 CB
50/60 CH
50/60 Control
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
That probably isn't too
far off what I’d give him.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Still surprised you don't have Buxton in the the top 5.
by tarheels24 on Feb 6, 2012 9:03 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Correa
I notice you didn’t mention anything about his speed – any info on that? Also, if he does move off short, is third the only logical destination, and is there any possibility that he would have to move further down the defensive spectrum.
Also
You said “it’s an outside shot but still possible.” on Correa – is that on his chances of sticking at short?
yes
he has has very good actions but is a big guy already. If he doesn’t grow more, he could be fine, but who quits growing at 17?
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think he'd
have to move anywhere past 3B where he could be a very good defender. He has average speed but he has quick feet and is agile.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Appreciate the replies
And I really liked the more detailed look at some of the players. I hope you’re planning to do more pieces like this.
When looking at a high school pitcher, I tend to expect them to lose 2 MPH unless they are thin and look like strengthening will add velocity.
Do you think this has to do with training? Adding bulk? Throwing less? Throwing more? Different routines?
I expect it
because in high school, I think a lot of them are pitching to radar guns and don’t need fine command to get out the talent they are facing. Once they start to face more talented hitters, they need to gain command and that usually comes with turning it down from 100% velocity to a more controlled velocity. It may have to do with long seasons a
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
The grind
of a professional season often spells a drop from HS velo as the cut off portion of Matt’s post would have indicated.
by charles wallace on Feb 6, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Sorry, internet isn’t working well today.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Along with what has been said above
Pitchers also go from starting once a week in college and high school (and much shorter seasons) to pitching a pro season with lots of travelling and going to 4/5 days rest between starts.
It is not unusual for, say, expectations of physical maturation to convince me otherwise but typically you should expect velo to drop.
I pitched 3
times a week some weeks and we never played on weekends. No wonder why my shoulder still hurts.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 7, 2012 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
I pitched 1-2 times a week
but complete games every time out. In the statetournament I pitched 11 innings and then came back and closed out the final 4 innings the next day. A total of over 220 pitches. My fastball was high 80s as a jr, low 80s as a sr, and then finally blew out my rote.
I had DI offers on the table until my arm went out. I’m still miffed at my high school coach as I wasn’t the only kid he did that to
Similar thing happened to me in junior high
Small school, we basically had two pitchers for the entire season, me and another kid. We either started or relieved for each other, and I went from ~75 mph in 8th grade, to blowing out my arm. Still pitched in HS, at about 60, but had always thrown a knuckleball since I was a kid, and just used that more, and became a junk/control pitcher.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 8, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
12 game season, one game cancelled
I started 6 games, relieved 4, arm was too sore for the last one.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 8, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
High school coaches
can make or break kids for sure. I don’t know what I threw other than 72 as an 12 year old. I was mid 80’s in high school probably, just a guess. No radar guns where I came from except at a fair one time.
I hurt my shoulder the summer I was 12 and just suffered through it. Took most of the summer off because of it. The next spring, I started the first game of the season. I was throwing a no-hitter in the 5th when I asked the score keeper what my pitch count was. The coach asked her to count but he was absent and the fill in guy didn’t know shit. She lost count at 148….Needless to say, I was wild that day, and I finished the game. Another 30-40 pitches over 2 innings. My arm was dead by the 3rd but headstrong teenagers are a force to be reckoned with. It was maybe 40 degrees and my arm tightened up so bad I’d put flex all on in between innings to keep it warm. I was nuts.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Same here
I remember throwing from about 10 ft at first during warm-ups because I could barely lift my arm.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 8, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
being in AZ
and on a state powerhouse team we had scouts at almost every game.
Even less of an excuse for my coach as he knew a few of us were being looked at and he had even played pro ball himself so he knew what he was dealing with.
We had radar at every game and I sat 87 as a junior and made allstate. Coach rode my arm until it fell off and I was 80 as a sr and didn’t even make all conference.
He did it to our two other star pitchers too. Kid that was one year older and one year younger. The older kid was 90-92 with talk of being drafted. Threw his arm out and only played JUCO. Shame.
Giolito
Doesn’t it seem a bit crazy to call Giolito’s floor a #2? I mean, there’s debate if Yu Darvish is a #2 and he’s 25 years old with several years of pitching against significantly better competition.
It's obviously a crazy, indefensible assertion
Bullpen Banter's Top 100 Prospects for 2012!
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Based on stuff
he’s a #2 floor. He could blow his arm out tomorrow and never pitch a meaningful pitch again.
Maybe this will suit him better. His floor is a high school pitcher and his ceiling is an ace. His likely outcome is a #2 starter if normal development occurs and he does not get injured.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think you and I have very different understandings of what floor means. To me, a floor would be Jose Iglesias has the floor of a defensive replacement player because if his bat does not develop he will at minimum have that skill at the big league level.
It seems like you are using floor and your predicted outcome for him as the same thing from how I am reading your last comment.
by Chris Traeger on Feb 6, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
Also
There is a difference between saying someone has a floor of a #2, and someone could have a floor of a #2.
Yes
“As long as he doesn’t have injury issues, he could have a floor of a #2 starter with the ceiling of an ace”
I stand by that. He COULD have a floor of a #2. 2-3 years from now, if he progresses as I would expect him to, he would be in the same conversation as any prospect that has that type of floor. I’m not saying his floor right now is a #2 starter. Like was stated earlier, that is Yu Darvish territory. He’s not Yu, but he could be looked at that way in 3 years.
My goal here is to project these players into the future. I will be looking at 16-21 year olds in amateur ball. That is much different that pro ball but they are all on different roads that lead to the same place. They are still prospects. There are 100’s of players that are amateurs that I would gladly have over prospects in pro ball. I’m trying to shine a light on that and compare where they are and where they are going.
That said, I think when you look at Giolito, you are looking at a player with the potential to be a top 10 prospect in baseball in the future. That is my main point when I say he could have the floor of a #2 starter.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
My point still stands that people debate on Yu Darvish having that as his floor, so even if you truly meant 2-3 years from now that is a crazy analysis of a high school pitcher.
Also, I think there is a better way of breaking down prospects than guessing where their floor could be in 2-3 years. A lot of players could have everything come together and have a floor of a very good player, doesn’t mean a whole lot to their actual ability to achieve that as a high schooler about to be drafted in 5 months.
I think even Julio Teheran doesn’t have a floor of a #2 today, Matt Moore possibly does (I’m no expert) and that’s saying a lot about how far he has come with his command.
by Chris Traeger on Feb 6, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think you have to consider
that every player has the potential to crash and burn. It could be any number of things…injuries, depression, felonies, vocations, etc.
When you remove those unusual circumstances (and that’s on both sides of the coin…people aren’t going to say a kid throwing 79 has a ceiling of an ace), you get a realistic floor/ceiling.
"Matt Moore possibly does"
FWIW, Giolito has that sort of upside, though the likelihood of reaching it is obviously fraught with the usual questions facing any teenager pitcher. I’d hazard that most evaluators would say that he’s more advanced than Taillon or Shelby Miller at the same age, with as high or higher a ceiling. I don’t know if he has quite the same uncanny pitchability as Bundy, but that’s probably offset by his physical advantages, and no one thought Bundy was clearly the best pitcher in his HS class coming into his senior year. The biggest buzz surrounding him at the time was the residual controversy over his pitch counts in the playoffs.
by charles wallace on Feb 6, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Context
I got what you meant in your original write up. The reason for the response is that you’re using a commonly used term with a widely accepted interpretation already. Obviously, you have the right to do this as writing is free form expression and there is no definitive definition of the term, but it’s misleading.
The term “floor” has important meaning in the context of prospect evaluation, and if I had an audience as large as yours, I’d be more conservative with the way I use it.
Floor implies “minimal risk downside”. Even with a heavy regard for intellectual freedom in writing and prospect evaluation, I think you are being at least slightly negligent.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 6, 2012 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
you must be a law student
i can’t imagine anyone else characterizing an action as slightly “negligent”
by blue bulldog on Feb 7, 2012 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
I understand what you are saying
but I plan to do this in the future occasionally. This is projection, something that is often used in prospect evaluation as well. As I stated, he COULD have a floor of a #2 starter in the future. I am saying that this guy is special. I am saying that he should be looked at as a very good prospect right now. If he were in a pro organization he would be in the conversation for the #1 prospect in that organization even with his risk potential.
In your comment you quoted “minimal risk downside” without citing it. Can I get this citation so I can understand your definition more thoroughly.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 7, 2012 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
It's cool.
I would’ve just worded it differently. I like your articles and just threw some feedback out there. I don’t want to imply that my opinion on this matters so much by continuing the topic.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 7, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
Like Matt,
I am waiting for the source of your “minimal risk downside” definition.
Why don’t you just admit you made the term up?
…On second thought, maybe you were just using “intellectual freedom” to express yourself.
how about
25th percentile outcome
i like to think in terms of 25th percentile outcomes for floor, and 75th percentile outcomes for ceiling
I’m not taking that part of his response seriously. Of course, “intellectual” freedom affords you the right to be a prick whether he was serious or not. People who write about prospects know what I mean, so I’m assuming he’s being facetious.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 8, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
No, I was serious
I’m not a lawyer but I have taken law classes and write legal documents as part of my job and I think this case would get thrown out.
Lets talk about prospects instead of semantics, huh?
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
My point.
The pay off isn’t worth going to trial.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 8, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
and where do you write about prospects?
People who write about prospects know what I mean
Link me up bro, enlighten me. I want to learn more from you brilliant mind.
Oh, and if you can’t tell, I’m not being facetious.
I know.
I wouldn’t credit someone as simple as you with the ability to utilize subtle humor.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 9, 2012 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
Concept of a floor
Is pretty meaningless at this level in my opinion. There is nobody playing at high school level who has a floor, as you define it, of being a major league player, given the distance they have to go, the possibilities of injuries and other problems and so on. It’s probably more meaningful to say that Giolito is advanced in a number of different ways for a high school pitcher, and, if there are no unexpected problems in his development, he is more likely than most other pitchers at a similar level to be a top of the rotation starter at the big league level.
by A Behemoth on Feb 6, 2012 11:38 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
This.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 6, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
IMO you can’t talking floor until they reach AA. I’ve seen/played against/coached so many “can’t miss” kids that missed that I can’t even count them all.
I see your point
but my point is that in 3 years, he could be in AA. I agree with the “can’t miss” thing. 4% of Rookie ball players make it to the majors, about 18% out of Low A. It is amazing how GREAT a player has to be to even sniff the majors.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 9:13 AM EST up reply actions
or even how sometimes great players get sidetracked
Out of my circle I know 5-6 big leaguers that were less talented than guys that never made it.
And many of us that have frequent this site have read about 10 times as many “can’t miss” kids as you have “seen/played against/coached”, which is why any talk of a floor is pretty silly at this point.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 9, 2012 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
Floor, schmoor
I was in Vegas for the Superbowl and got to see Giolito pitch this weekend. All I can say is Matt’s coments are dead on. The kid doesn’t throw, he pitches. Any pitch, any count. Great command. He challenges hitters. The big show was Giolito against Gallo (Giolito chewed up the rest of Gallo’s team). First two AB’s, Giolito sawed him off twice with inside FB’s at 97 & 96 on the black. Good thing Gallo was swinging metal or he woulid have had some nice firewood. Third time up, two runners Gallo hit a solid single off a change-up after looking really bad on a couple earlier in the at-bat. Gold star for Gallo. It was great to see these two HS behemoths go at it. Gallo is imposing at 6’5" but honestly, Giolito almost makes him look small. Giolito is so big and broad, it’s ridiculous. He looks more like a tight-end then a pitcher. But then he comes at you with this slow, easy repeatable delivery where the ball just explodes out of his hand. Couple that with real feel (beyond his years) and it’s easy to understand why people are excited about him. I also got to see Max Fried hit. If he weren’t a pitcher I’m betting he’d be a 1st rounder as position player. Sweet swing from the left side. He hit an absolute bomb over the center field wall and then a double the other way. And he can run. What an athlete. I didn’t see him pitch on Sunday. I meant too, but I got kinda caught up in the Vegas nitelife and couldn’t drag my butt outta bed…ah well. Pretty unfair to have these two guys on the same HS team.
by Byyronbb on Feb 6, 2012 12:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions 5 recs
Great commentary
I love when people share their 1st hand views of players and give detailed reports. Wish we had more people on here that would share these types of details as I know there are plenty of contributors on this site that see a few guys a years that are highly talked about in the draft and prospect world.
Redbird Dugout
http://www.redbirddugout.com
by JDizzidy on Feb 6, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
+1
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 6, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
God, everything I read about Giolito just makes me want him that much more
I’m basically rooting for Appel to crash and burn at this point. Giolito sounds like a true ace in the making.
Same here.
Appel might have a higher floor, but it would be foolish to pass on upside like Giolito’s.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 6, 2012 1:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm firmly on the Giolito bandwagon.
A lot can and will change by June, but Giolito looks special. He’s on the same level as Taillon or Bundy, from where I’m sitting. As an Astros fan, I will be disappointed if he is passed on.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 6, 2012 1:03 PM EST via mobile reply actions
For me
at the time they were drafted (projecting Gio, obviously):
Gio
Bundy
(space)
Taillon
and Archie Bradley should probably be in this conversation, too.
Bradley
I never bought as being at that level… he requires much more projection than any of those three guys.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
He could be
in that mix. I watched him in the OK state championship against Bundy’s team. He touched 98, K’d 14 and looked really good. I’d put him in the same mix as Taillon.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 7, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
His secondaries and command are not at their level though, right?
That is what I remember reading in multiple scouting reports coming into the draft.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
If you've seen him pitch at all,
then you know the breaking ball is a future plus pitch. Bradley is still underrated imo, and I agree that comping him to Taillon is fair. Bradley even had a fairly clean delivery as a senior. Not much to dislike to be honest.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
When Taillon was drafted
People were calling his curveball a plus-plus pitch already.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Right,
and Bradley’s wasn’t far behind. Call it plus and future plus-plus if you want. If you haven’t seen him pitch, and you’re just going off scouting reports, you’re missing out on Bradley. Big-time talent.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not doubting that
But he can still be a big-time talent without being at quite the level of these other guys. Being a borderline top 50 prospect as a high school pitcher with no pro data is pretty high on him (that’s where I have him, the other three would probably slot into the top 20-30 or so).
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I'm not sure what
you want people to say. Those who are high on him have a reason, and it’s generally based on seeing him pitch. He’s convincing. It’s not outlandish to compare him to Taillon as the similarities are fairly obvious if you’ve seen both. I have no opinion of where either would place on a list.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
It would be interesting to come back next year
and see if everyone basically has the next hotshot young pitcher as rated higher than Giolito, Bundy, and Taillon.
True
Not sure who it’ll be for 2013. Clinton Hollon is the current 2013 HS pitcher discussed in that territory, but that’s a long way off. Garrett Williams could come back and regain top of draft status. Gonsalves? That kid’s incredibly projectable.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
It’ll be Hollon for the HS class. The college crop has quite a few really good pitching prospects, like 7 or 8 very good ones.
High school has a couple and I’m sure more will shake loose this summer. I hope to go to a national showcase this summer to get more info on these guys.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 9:18 AM EST up reply actions
The college crop
I was thinking HS based on the Gio, Bundt, Tailong troika, but you’re right. College has some nice names, including Karsten Whitson whom I got glowing comments on last year. More than one person said he should have been on the Pads farm rolling and smoking the competition. I’m really intereasted to see how Covey rebounds this year after a rough freshman campaign. Ryan Eades looks poised to step up on Sunday for LSU and should be the Saturday guy as a junior, or even usurp McCune. Kubitza and Plutko are solid guys with good stuff and feel and durable builds. Should be a nice bounce back after this year’s thinner crop.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
I’ve only seen Hollon once and I really liked what I saw. Not the type like the huge fireballing Giolito, but a solidly build 6’2" and already showing a decent CH
Did he
seem 6’2" when you saw him? I won’t see him until this year but in what little I’ve seen he seems closer to 6’ even. He’s not a huge guy either, and I’m interested to see how people feel about that big arm attached to a moderate build. Plenty of guys give big stuff from moderate or small bodies, but it’s worth noting that he’s not from the Appel, Taillon, Bradley, Giolito mold.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
saw him summer 2010
so a while ago now.
he was solidly built when comp’ed to the other kids in his class. he was about 6’0" then but they’re listing him at 6’2" at PG now.
I was maybe going to make a trip to WWB so I’ll make sure to give him a look and writeup what I see.
I think that is
fair. His didn’t seem quite as polished as Taillon did in HS but he has just as much potential. Taillon seemed a little less polished in pro ball than I expected as well. It’s a learning process.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
And
while I liked Taillon’s secondaries a touch more, I’d say that Bradley’s delivery coming out of HS looked a little better than Taillon’s. Lots of similarities and slight advantages on both sides. I’m not sure why people aren’t on Bradley more. He could be very, very good.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
One man's opinion,
but Law’s new Top 100 had Bradley three spots behind Taillon (19 and 16 respectively), and specifically lauds the curve, “…an absolute hammer at 8084 that had older players laughing at how sharp it was in last year’s instructional league.” Also remarks positively on the delivery.
by charles wallace on Feb 9, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
i think Callis
said something similar in one of his chats, that if he had to rank the three (Bundy, Taillon, Bradley) he’d have Bundy a tick ahead of Taillon, and Bradley a tick behind Taillon
then what would you rate your comment?
plus-terrible? plus-plus-terrible?
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 6, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Probably a 20 on a 20-80 scale
But I’m feeling generous tonight.
I would give his comment a -4 RAR
(Recs Above Replacement)
by Bronzillo on Feb 8, 2012 8:11 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ha
You might be on to something! You should develop a smartphone ‘app’.
If you liked it, where is my Rec?
After all, I’m trying to improve my RAR in hopes of signing a lucrative long term deal.
not terrible but
I think its a mistake to leave out Buxton, as he’s my #1 in the class.
I haven’t see the Puerto Rican kid so i can’t comment.
Trey Williams for me is a supp 1st rounder and not a top 5-10 overall.
Fried is the same. Good, maybe back end 1st rounder, but not top 5-10 overall
Buxton looks great
That seems low on Williams and Fried. Both seem reasonably safe bets to produce as premium players (3B power bat and LHP with above avg stuff).
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
don't get me wrong
I like both kids. I think Williams has potential with the stick and can really handle 3B. Fried is a very good looking pitcher.
Just when you’re talking top 5 HS kids in America I want to see LOUD tools. I don’t see a 80 or future 80 pitch on Fried (and I’ve seen him 2-3 times) and the same for Williams. Giolito has a LOUD arm. Buxton has LOUD tools across the board. Williams and Fried don’t IMO. Both could be nice starters, but I’d see Fried as #3/#4 guy if it works right instead of a #1/#2 and Williams as a solid hitter rather than elite slugger.
I know many of you say #3 starters and hitters like Williams don’t grow on trees and I agree. Any GM would welcome either into their Org, but if I’m drafting 1-1 through 1-5 I want more
Williams power is loud
I don’t know if it’s LOUD, but it’s loud. Fried has a lot of projection left. No one thought Tyler Skaggs had LOUD tools when he came out of HS, but he could actually pitch, which came in handy once his body started to mature.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
obviously
Skaggs went in the supp round, not 1-1 through 1-5 picks, so its obvious that he wasn’t deemed worthy or viewed to have that type of upside.
the same can be said about many of the best pitchers in baseball. Its all a crapshoot and no one knows how anyone will develop.
You’re mising my point though. With picks in the 1-1 through 1-10 range I’m going after players with extreme upside
I get the point,
but then we’re also discussing guys who haven’t had their senior year to perform yet. Like I said elsewhere, Dylan Bundy wasn’t DYLAN BUNDY until his senior year. He was a top follow, but not the unrivaled best in class. And this isn’t last year. There are far fewer extreme upside guys imo, so skills and pitchability will make guys with less than elite (but still very good) stuff play up.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Which is why
I agree completely that Buxton probably has to be in a Top 5 HSers list. He looks phenomenal, and there aren’t many players with his combination of upside and current ability in this class. Pretty high floor for a HS OF imo.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Last year was
very interesting. Bundy was a likely first rounder heading into the year, but again, not the clear top dog. Hultzen was a likely back of first round guy for even his ardent admirers, and he goes 2? Just saying, that it’s worth waiting to see how Fried and T Will look at the end of the season.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
absolutely
these are all pre-season write ups. Things will change and I’ll be posting that as well but many of the readers here know little about these guys. This is essentially an introduction to them. I want people to know MLB draft prospects and make it as exciting to them as it is for us that follow the draft.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
And
it’s impossible to agree on the top five college or HS guys in a given class anyway, right? Inevitably someone deserving is going to be excluded.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
That's half the fun
right? See who everyone else likes and maybe learn something you didn’t know.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Also...
Let me add one more thing….composure. This was a pretty tense game for winterball. Defensively, it was poorly played by both sides. I’m guessing lots of jitters given the # of scouts in attendance…well over 50. The Gorman dugout and fans were on Giolito from the outset. The umps weren’t helping either. Giolito was under constant pressure from the first hitter (booted slow roller to 2B). He never wavered. Just went about his business, pounding the strikezone like it was a bullpen. 2 PBs on Strikeouts (runners reached), an error and a bad call at first in his last two innings. Didn’t rattle him. He’s a cool customer. Gallo, to his credit, hung in there as well. He was very aggressive. In his last at-bat, he showed real patience laying off a 0-2 FB at the letters after swinging and missing badly on two change-ups. When Giolito came back at him with another change, he turned on it. That was a great adjustment. I think his swing is a little long at this point to handle the type of velo Giolito was dealing out but u can tell he’s a player. Seriously, you come to games like thus to see two kids perform and they don’t dissapoint, under pressure. Future pro’s foshow.
by Byyronbb on Feb 6, 2012 1:51 PM EST via mobile reply actions
When
do you think you’ll get a chance to see Fried pitch? Absolutely love what little I’ve seen of him. Visions of Cole Hamels…
by charles wallace on Feb 6, 2012 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Jitters
I don’t think it’s jitters. . .It’s just high school kids. I’ve seen a few of their winter league games, and there’s been 40 or so scouts at every game. High school kids make errors, and even more in Janurary/February.
When Fried...
Don’t know…I live in Phoenix. Not sure if I will be in LA this spring.
by Byyronbb on Feb 6, 2012 6:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Horizon Wood Bat
Harvard Westlake came to the tourney in 2010. I got to see Giolito and Austin Wilson that year. Not sure if they’re back or who is playing. Bishop Gorman and Green valley, both Vegas powerhouses usually make the trip as well as the big dogs in california
My top ten right now
1 Lucas Giolito
2 Lance McCullers
3 Byron Buxton
4 Max Fried
5 Walker Weikel
6 Nick Williams
7 Carlos Correa
8 Trey Williams
9 Gavin Cecchini
10 Lucas Sims
So, I have McCullers and Buxton in my top five, and Correa and Williams just out of it. Matt, which one of your top five do you think has the best chance of dropping in the draft? Which one is the hardest sign? Easiest?
+1 on Sims
I really like him… And Weikel
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 6, 2012 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Sims does seem a bit underrated
I think he compares well to a guy like Beede. I’m a McCullers fan, but I’m not sure where he rates for me. He needs to show better command and tighten up his delivery, but then he really hasn’t pitched that much, a fact which some of his critics seem to ignore.
I really like Buxton. I think the swing plays for avg, so I’m interested to see how the power comes. The guy can run too. Natural baseball actions.
by charles wallace on Feb 6, 2012 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
McCullers
This spring is really a make or break for him for this draft. If he struggles, he will drop far enough that with the new cap restrictions, he will probably just elect to attend college. But I think he will have a great spring, hence the number 2 spot on my HS list, and #6 on my overall list.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 6, 2012 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
Dropping
any of them if injury hits them. The talent is there for all of them that they shouldn’t slide a lot.
None of these guys should be a hard sign as long as they don’t slide. I don’t think any of them have spoke of a firm commitment.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 6, 2012 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
Cool
So who do you see as fairly high ranked with signability issues?
by cookiedabookie on Feb 6, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
Freddy Avis
is strong to Stanford. Jameis Winston is strong to FSU. I could see Courtney Hawkins and CJ Hinojosa wanting to go to Texas. Those are probably to toughest in the top 50 in my eyes.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 7, 2012 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
Winston
He is also the #1 quarterback in this years recruiting class so hes probably going to FSU
http://diamondprospects.blogspot.com
this is what pisses me off about the new bargaining agreement
in years past someone would have drafted Winston in the 7/8th round, thrown a few million at him, and he’d pursue a baseball career ala Matt Kemp, Dom Brown, etc.
Now players like Winston aren’t polished or sure enough of a thing to draft early to spend your draft wad so baseball will ultimately lose out on athletes.
I potentially see a bleak baseball landscape ten years down the road in which baseball no longer attracts American born athletes and all “tools” guys are outsourced from Latin Am
this isn't necessarily a bad thing
how often do you see a guy get drafted in the 7/8th round and teams throw “a few million at him”? most often, if a difficult signee is drafted in the late round, the signing bonus is less than $2 million. that’s nothing in terms of career earnings.
most of these guys never make it in baseball. what do you think their earning potential is after they drop out of baseball? on the other hand, what do you think their earning potential is, if they had gone to college instead, and earned a degree?
i’m not sure it’s clear either way, but i can at least buy an argument that the new CBA might have good larger social ramifications.
by blue bulldog on Feb 9, 2012 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
I waver on this
but I think if a player is a true baseball player, he’ll play baseball. If he is an athlete that prefers the gridiron and feels the need to play baseball because he was paid, it won’t work. I don’t think it’s going to be a big deal but it will cost MLB a couple guys but it won’t be a landscape changing thing.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 9, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
disagree
about half the current african american players in the Bigs right now saw baseball as their 2nd sport until money convinced them otherwise: matt kemp, austin jackson, dom brown, brandon phillips, dee gordon, cameron maybin, etc. were basketball/football players with DI scholarships lined up until the draft swooped them up
some of these guys went in the 1st round (maybin, phillips) but the others would’ve opted for other sports as would have others
those are the toolsy guys
that made it
what about all those toolsy guys that got bought into baseball, but didn’t make it? you have to balance it all out, when you’re looking at the overall social benefits/costs
thats for the GMs to decide
GMs get paid big bucks to make those decisions, MLB shouldn’t have taken it out of their hands. If a GM wants to pay Jameis Winston $5mil to buy him out of football than he gets the credit if he becomes Dave Winfield, blame if he’s Reggie Abercrombie.
Either way, i don’t see its the commisioners job to save owners from themselves. if they have the money to spend, they will and have
i think you missed my point
it’s not the commissioners job to save owners from themselves
but i do think you can make an argument that it’s the commissioners job to save the education of random high school prospects who don’t really have a chance at making the majors
the average kid in high school and their parents have no idea how to price risk. some family gets enticed by a $1.5 million signing bonus, but he doesn’t have the knowledge about what’s the probability of him making it to the majors, what is his future earning potential in cases where he doesn’t make it to the majors, and what is his future earning potential if he had just gone to college instead
that’s the type of calculation that the MLB commissioner’s office is more suited to making
The probability of making it to the majors
Is pretty irrelevant if you’re getting a $1.5 million signing bonus. You get it whether you make it or not. Take 5-6 years to try baseball out, and if it doesn’t work you can always go back to college. Hell, if the kid has any sense, and most do, and you sign a $1 million plus bonus, you have part of the bonus be college tuition for four years.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 10, 2012 4:32 AM EST up reply actions
MLB also
has a scholarship plan if you sign out of HS to cover this cost. I don’t have a link handy but it’s on MLB’s site somewhere.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 10, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
and
why would it be baseball’s responsibility to “save education” as the poster states.
last time I checked we live in a free country. No one is forcing the kids to sign baseball contracts. If they have a college scholarship and a pro offer on the table its their choice to make.
Winson and Hinojosa I expected
Good to know on Avis and Hawkins.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 7, 2012 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
McCullers
reminds me somewhat of Drabek’s kid. Undersized righty with explosive stuff.
I stood next to him at ToS and there is no way he’s the 6’1" he’s listed. Probably more like 5’11"
He may have to fight the stigma of short righties
I don't think there's any may about it
McCullers has been fighting that stigma for the last two years at least.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
will come down
to whether or not the CH develops. I didn’t see it at ToS, but he has explosive FB and SL.
Drabek found a CH and he’s even been dissapointing. Just shows theres no guarentee with these kids.
Tournament of Stars
It’s one of the biggest tourneys for high school prospects.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions
I'll try to avoid it
but it happens sometimes. If I say anything you don’t understand, just ask. I don’t want to talk too much jargon.
That goes for anyone. Feel free to ask questions. I’ll do my best to answer them.
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 8, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
acronyms
Well, ToS is pretty common jargon among evaluaotrs and serious fans. If you’re really interested in this stuff then it’s worth asking like Matt says. Then you can talk like-a da scouts!
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
McCullers is pitching
Thurs night against a lhp named Pike. Do you have anything on the Pike kid?
Pike
Tyler Pike, Winterhaven HS, 6’1 180 LHP. Read a bit about him a few months ago. FB 87-90, CB 77-80. Had success last year in HS. Florida State commit. Never seen him but by all accounts he’s an excellent HS pitcher. Should be a good match-up. I’d really like to hear how McCullers does. I’m pulling for McCullers as it must be a tough year for him watching all these guys catch-up and pass him. It’s not where u start, it’s where u finish.
by Byyronbb on Feb 6, 2012 11:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He has an easy
and clean delivery. I like him. Let us know what you see and peak some radar guns for us. :)
by Matt Garrioch on Feb 7, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
I go Buxton #1
His ability to play the middle of the diamond, the extreme athleticism and defensive skills coupled with bat speed and big power. He has to worry less about the bat than a kid playing a corner and I’d always feel iffy about drafting a high school pitcher #1. College pitcher #1 yes, as he’s only 6months to a year away from the Bigs. High school kid is 4+ years away and offers more opportunity for injury or flameout.
I take the impact bat at the premium position when it comes to HS kids
Well,
I’m not sure every HS pitcher is 4+ year away. Obviously any HSer being considered at the top of the draft would be expected to move a little faster than that. BAL doesn’t give Bundy a major league contract if they think he’s 4+ years away for instance. So if you’re talking 1-1 potential, you have to assume the team has a shorter timetable than you’re suggesting.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
Jameson Tallion
Pirates say they would have gone 1-1 with him ahead of Harper and many said he was the best high school pitcher since Beckett in 1999. Even with him being a supposed once a decade type arm he’s still 3-5 years away. This is now going on 3 years since 2010 draft and he’s probably at least another year away. About the only organization that I can think that rushes guys that quick is Detroit with Porcello and Turner last year.
I got to disagree with you here. Very few high school kids, even at 1-1, make the HS to MLB jump in less than 4 years. Thats a lot of time for something to go wrong.
You're missing the point
The team that takes that kid at the top of the draft has to feel that they’ll move quickly. Unless you can explain how a major league contract jibes with Bundy taking more than four years to make it, you’ve got a math problem. And since no one actually takes HS pitchers at 1-1, I’m not sure who these kids are who aren’t making the jump. No one’s saying there isn’t a risk. But if a team is going to buck tradition and consider a HS RHP at 1-1 it will be unlikely that they expect him to take that long. Also not sure how 3-5 equals 4+. If a HS pitcher made it to the majors in three years that would considerably faster than 4+.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
One thing that would help,
is if teams could actually get a pick that high signed and in development. Saying Taillon is in his third year is somewhat misleading. 2010 was instructs and 2011 was a good chunk of extended ST before he even debuted in Low-A. All things considered he’s moving pretty quickly. Shelby Miller is a good example of how fast a top HS pitcher can move. 3 IP in his draft year, controlled development in his first full season, significant AA innings in his second and a chance to pitch in the majors in year three.
by charles wallace on Feb 7, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I was going to say, the year a pitcher is drafted is almost always a wash. As you said, the gloves don’t really come off until 2 years after the player is drafted. Thats when you can shoot up from High A thru Double A and into Triple A (if all goes well…not saying its advisable either). As a Bucs fan, I’m anxious to see what happens with Taillon this year.
Using Shelby Miller as a baseline is ridiculous
and is obviously more to do with his organizations handling of pitchers (afermentioned Porcello) than anything else. Are there high school guys drafted 1-1 through 1-5 that move quickly? Of course, thats why they are paid huge bonuses. Is it the norm and a “safe” pick. I would say not. ALL pitchers can suffer the same fate but I’d rather take a pitcher that needs little to no time developing in the minors than one that spends on average 3-4 years. I don’t understand your use of 1-1 as I haven’t used 1-1 as the criteria in any of my posts, I’ve consistently used 1-1 through 1-5. Going back to 2000 draft there have been 9 HS pitchers drafted in that range:
Matt Stodolka, no debut
Mark Rogers, 6 years in minors
Gavin Floyd, 3 years in minors
Chris Gruler, no debut
Clint Everts, no debut
Adam Loewen, 4 years
Hobgood, Taillon, Bundy were drafted too recently to be included, but its an easy early call on Hobgood thus far.
So not including the recent 3, 50% of HS pitchers 1-1 through 1-5 don’t even make it. The ones that did averaged more than 4 years in the minors.
Again, if I’m picking that high in the draft I go high upside middle of the diamond (CF/SS) guys or colle starting pitchers. Too much can go wrong with the HS guys
No one's saying
there’s no risk. I actually said that explicitly above. We’re talking about the time frame you’re psoposing vs. what a tema drafting a pitcher that high probably expects. Unless you can prove that the drafting org for each of the pitchers above thought that it would take 4+ years for them to reach the majors then you’re pulling the number out of thin air.
And I’m not sure how using Shelby Miller as an example makes anything but perfect sense. He’s a HS RHP with top of draft ability. It makes a lot more sense to assume that a team which is selecting a player like that in the top 5 hopes and expects that he’ll develop as quickly as Miller is. Again, we’re talking about expectations, not reality. If a team really thought that a HS pitcher would take that long to make it, it would almost surely disqualify him from consideration in the first place. It stands to reason that most teams looking at a HS pitcher in the top 5 are counting on him being the exception (Miller), not the rule (Gruler, Everts, Rogers, etc.).
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Point being,
everything in your original post makes perfect sense, except this idea that any HS pitcher selected in the Top 5 is doomed to take over four years to reach the majors. I would absolutely take the position player, but that’s not really what we’ve been discussing.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
'Pirates say they would have (taken Jameson Taillon first overall) ahead of Harper'
’That’s what they want you to think!’ – George Costanza
well
probably said to boost Taillon’s ego and make him feel more wanted and not just a consolation prize
That
was my first thought, though he doesn’t seem like the kind of kid who needs fluffing. I think the $6.5M signing bonus was probably pretty consolatory! ;)
It does smack of the sort of thing FOs say all the time.
by charles wallace on Feb 8, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
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