Minor League Ball: Top 120 Prospects for 2012
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 11:01 AM EST
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Minor League Ball: Top 120 Prospects 2012
Here is a list of Top 120 Prospects for 2012.
In the past, I have avoided combining lists for hitters and pitchers, preferring to separate them since they are different species. I still think that is the right thing to do philosophically, but nobody seems to agree with me on that, and demand for combined prospect lists is very high. So, here's a combined list.
As with all such lists, the trick is finding a balance between short-term expectation, closeness to the majors, and long-term potential. A list that looks at nothing but long-term upside will look much different than a list focused on players poised to make a quick impact. This list is a hybrid of the two types and some of the rankings will reflect that.
I tend to lean towards guys close to the majors. For example, Lance Lynn is ready to perform well in the majors right now. Taylor Guerrieri isn't. Guerrieri does have a higher upside than Lynn, but he is also much, much further away from the Show and has a considerably higher risk of failure. Next year I would expect Guerrieri to rank much higher, with Lynn graduating off the list.
It is a case-by-case thing. Just keep in mind that if your favorite high-upside player doesn't rank as high as you think he should, that doesn't mean that I don't like him or that I think he sucks or that I'm trying to disrespect him. In many cases it just means we need more information or that his career is just starting out.
Most of this list lines up just fine with the grades and ratings in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book.. There are a few places in the 50-70 range, however, where the hitter/pitcher comparison breaks down, with players right on the borderline between B and B+. Mike Olt, for example, is a strong Grade B prospect in the book, but a few of the pitchers listed after him on this list are B+ guys in the book.
I am well aware of this inconsistency. It reflects what I write in the book every year, that a letter grade is merely a shorthand notation, and that grades for pitchers do not always directly correspond with grades for hitters.
My analysis and opinions are not static, and are constantly being revised and reviewed. I intend to revise all the letter grades around Opening Day, and this Top 120 is part of that process. Keep in mind that the book contains reports and more detailed opinions on every guy on this list (along with 1085 other players).
Anyway, with all that said, I hope you enjoy the list. I will be around on-and-off today to answer questions.
1) Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
2) Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
3) Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
4) Yu Darvish, RHP, Texas Rangers
5) Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers
6) Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
7) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
8) Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles
9) Jesus Montero, C, Seattle Mariners
10) Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves
11) Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
12) Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati Reds
13) Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies
14) Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals
15) Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners
16) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
17) Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics
18) Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
19) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
20) Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
21) Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Colorado Rockies
22) Jarrod Parker, RHP, Oakland Athletics
23) Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
24) Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
25) Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners
26) Travis D'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays
27) Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs
28) Yonder Alonso, 1B, San Diego Padres
29) James Paxton, LHP, Seattle Mariners
30) Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox
31) Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins
32) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
33) Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
34) Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins
35) Matt Harvey, RHP, New York Mets
36) Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets
37) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
38) Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals
39) Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, Kansas City Royals
40) Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
41) Randall Delgado, RHP, Atlanta Braves
42) Yasmani Grandal, C, San Diego Padres
43) Gary Brown, OF, San Francisco Giants
44) Addison Reed, RHP, Chicago White Sox
45) Manny Banuelos, LHP, New York Yankees
46) Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
47) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros
48) Jake Marisnick, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
49) Josh Bell, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
50) Jedd Gyorko, 3B, San Diego Padres
51) Anthony Gose, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
52) A.J. Cole, RHP, Oakland Athletics
53) Michael Choice, OF, Oakland Athletics
54) Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego Padres
55) George Springer, OF, Houston Astros
56) Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
57) Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds
58) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
59) Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers
60) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Kansas City Royals
61) Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees
62) Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
63) Nick Franklin, SS, Seattle Mariners
64) Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
65) Mike Olt, 3B, Texas Rangers
66) Jean Segura, INF, Los Angeles Angels
67) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
68) Justin Nicolino, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
69) Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
70) Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
71) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
72) Nestor Molina, RHP, Chicago White Sox
73) Drew Hutchison, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
74) Matt Barnes, RHP, Boston Red Sox
75) Zach Lee, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
76) Andrelton Simmons, SS, Atlanta Braves
77) Jonathan Schoop, SS, Baltimore Orioles
78) Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston Red Sox
79) Robbie Erlin, LHP, San Diego Padres
80) Deck McGuire, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
81) Joe Wieland, RHP, San Diego Padres
82) Keyvius Sampson, RHP, San Diego Padres
83) Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
84) Brad Peacock, RHP, Oakland Athletics
85) Sonny Gray, RHP, Oakland Athletics
86) Chad Bettis, RHP, Colorado Rockies
87) Nate Eovaldi, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
88) Derek Norris, C, Oakland Athletics
89) Brandon Jacobs, OF, Boston Red Sox
90) Eddie Rosario, 2B-OF, Minnesota Twins
91) Oswaldo Arcia, OF, Minnesota Twins
92) Mason Williams, OF, New York Yankees
93) Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets
94) Mikie Mahtook, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
95) Jeurys Familia, RHP, New York Mets
96) Garrett Richards, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
97) Ryan Lavarnway, C, Boston Red Sox
98) Lance Lynn, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
99) Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies
100) Wily Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
101) Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
102) Alexander Torres, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
103) Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees
104) Tyler Thornburg, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
105) Tim Wheeler, OF, Colorado Rockies
106) Allen Webster, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
107) Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
108) Jarred Cosart, RHP, Houston Astros
109) Javier Baez, 3B, Chicago Cubs
110) Matt Adams, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
111) Cory Spangenberg, 2B, San Diego Padres
112) Casey Kelly, RHP, San Diego Padres
113) Jed Bradley, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
114) Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox
115) Zack Cox, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
116) Leonys Martin, OF, Texas Rangers
117) Joe Panik, INF, San Francisco Giants
118) Robbie Grossman, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
119) Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
120) Daniel Corcino, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
ALSO CONSIDERED: Tyler Anderson, LHP, Rockies; Joe Benson, OF, Twins; Dante Bichette, Jr, 3B, Yankees; Cody Buckel, RHP, Rangers: Jose Campos, RHP, Yankees: Andrew Chafin, LHP, Dbacks; Alex Colome, RHP, Rays: Casey Crosby, LHP, Tigers; Jose Fernandez, RHP, Marlins; Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Braves; Brian Goodwin, OF, Nationals; Garrett Gould, RHP, Dodgers; Johnny Hellweg, RHP, Angels; Liam Hendriks, RHP, Twins; Alex Meyer, RHP, Nationals; Rougned Odor, SS, Rangers: Andrew Oliver, LHP, Tigers; Marcell, Ozuna, OF, Marlins; Neil Ramirez, RHP, Rangers: Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, Cardinals; Robbie Ross, LHP, Rangers: Eduardo Sanchez, RHP; Cardinals: Drew Smyly, LHP, Tigers; Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds.
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It’s nice to see that many Cardinal prospects on the list.
Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.
by Whiteyballer on Feb 24, 2012 11:03 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
KC can take pride in
4 in the top 60 and 5 on the list after promoting (what seemed like) more than half of theirs last year.
by stlfan on Feb 25, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
still
NO WAY is Mike Mongomery 101. I would say around 50 which isn’t nearly as high as BA had him at (i think) 28.
Also, where is John Lamb? yeah, yeah, I know he had TJ surgery. Still, John are you trying to tell me you would take every player on this list over Lamb? I doubt it.
by Bronzillo on Mar 1, 2012 6:51 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Good job on the list.
Thanks for all you do.
Under my tutelage, you will grow from boys to men. From men into gladiators. And from gladiators into Swansons. ~ Ron Swanson
by BigBabyBruce on Feb 24, 2012 11:06 AM EST reply actions 7 recs
+1
Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.
by Whiteyballer on Feb 24, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Feb 24, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Not surprised, and kind of entertained, seeing Peacock and Gray are one right after another
they really are the same pitcher, similar motion (gray’s looks a little bit more intense), same velocity, same sharp curveball, and same lacking change up.
great list!
Snoochies
Martin Perez @ 83...ouch
Not impressed with the scouting reports? Or the stats too much to ignore?
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
I’m surprised he was ranked that high, to be honest. Eventually, the results need to match the stuff.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 24, 2012 11:16 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's by far the lowest I've seen him.
Klaw – 20th
BA – 31st
BP- 36th
Our friends at Bullpen Banter had him at 22.
You have to think he has an extremely low floor, ie. AAAA player at best to rank him that low, cause the ceiling is still quite high.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Is it though?
The kid still as 3 60-grade pitches, but he still lacks that one out pitch that he can go to in a tough situation. My perception of Perez is quite different. I think the floor is pretty high but the ceiling is relatively low compared to other pitchers on this list. He will be a good innings eater but is looking more like a future 3/4 starter rather than the 2 that was put on him a couple years ago.
Idk
He’s still only 20, and was mishandled in my opinion. I think the number one that was put on him a couple years ago could be adjusted to a #2 now, but to say he couldn’t possibly be better than a 3/4 at this point is a reach.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
I'll buy you need a 70 to be an ace
but not to be a 2/3
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Feb 24, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I realize a lot of the other prospect outlets had him much higher, I just disagree with it. His floor is very low, and I view his ultimate as being downgraded to a solid #2 as his ultimate best case scenario. I think he’ll plod along as a #4 starter for a while in the majors at the rate he’s going. I see Perez as yet another example of a guy whose raw stuff is so great that prospectors will always rank him highly no matter how mediocre the stats.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 24, 2012 12:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
*ultimate ceiling
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 24, 2012 12:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Perez
Perez is a tough one.
I have seen him look excellent, and I’ve seen him look mediocre, and I’ve seen him look completely lost. There’s lots of talent there, but not a lot of consistency, and he’s been pitching at too high a level.
I struggled with that grade. At various times, he was ranked as high as 30 as I worked on this list.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
I thought you liked him more than Banuelos
I’m probably getting my prospect gurus mixed up
World Series attitude, champagne bottle life, nothing every changes so tonight is like tomorrow night.
On your side with lists...
I may be one of those rare individiuals who agree with you when it comes to top prospect lists. I, too, would rather pitchers be separate from hitters. As it is, your list is very interesting. A little surprised Hak-Ju Lee was as low as he was but not that big a deal. I will be curious to see how many changes this list goes through as the season wears on but that’s the fun! Thank you for all that you do!
by rblythepittsteel on Feb 24, 2012 11:12 AM EST reply actions
Well done!
I think you pulled of the combined hitter/pitcher list very well.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 24, 2012 11:14 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Good job on the list.
Could you give the eta’s and where these pitcher’s likely end up in the rotation ( ace, nber 2 starter, number 3 starter etc..)
Shelby miller
Trevor Bauer
Gerrit cole
Julio Teheran
Tyler Skaggs
I have some tough decisions in my keeper league!
by Aggiefan17 on Feb 24, 2012 11:19 AM EST via mobile reply actions
somewhat surprised
by the 2013 ETA on Skaggs
for some reason, i just feel like our FO is going to call up Skaggs before Bauer
by blue bulldog on Feb 24, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Not Likely
Bauer is already on the 40 man, Skaggs is not.
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Cespedes
I’m a little surprised at the Cespedes ranking – over Bundy and Rendon and Bradley and Scraggs – is he really going to be able to back that up? If he’s going to be a .250/.260 ish player with not much plate discipline but a ton of power and a ton of K’s, it doesn’t seem like that justifies his placement over a possible #1, a possible batting champion with plate discipline, and two high-ceiling starters.
that's a tough one too
Cespedes is one of the big wild cards and I really just don’t know how to rank Cuban guys like that. Given that Bundy/Rendon/Bradley haven’t played yet….
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Wooo prospect lists!
They matter so much and are necessary.
Seriously though, thanks John.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 24, 2012 11:37 AM EST reply actions
Good Job John!
I just think that the strength of John’s list is that if he has concerns about a player he then rates that according until the player in question answers that issue. The farther away from the majors means there are more adjustments to be made and more opportunities for failure. As John said, it not all about ceiling.
My question to John is…
including graduations, how much of a jump could Christian Yelich have with a good year? What if any are his chances at CF considering the Marlins has Morrison in left?
On the Braves prospects
I think Teheran is a tad on the low end, but the number doesn’t bother me as much as Bauer being ranked ahead of him. They’re the same age, but while Bauer has just 25.2 professional innings (and showed some chinks in the armor too), Teheran just threw about twice as many innings in AAA this season as every other 20 year old to pitch in the IL combined the past 6 seasons and he was completely dominant in the process. I just can’t put that much faith in college numbers and I don’t see a real advantage for Bauer based on scouting reports.
If anything, I think the Vizcaino and Delgado rankings are a tad on the aggressive end of things, but pretty close to where I would have them.
I love the Simmons ranking. I was a bit worried when you dropped his grade from a B+ to a B that you were losing confidence in your initial assessment, but that obviously isn’t the case based on this ranking. I think your ranking of him will only look better once we see him perform in AA next year.
Why?
Why only care about whether Braves prospects are ranked highly enough? If Teheran were traded for Bauer tomorrow, would you write this in reverse?
Because they're the prospects that I know the best
If it were just about Braves prospects being ranked highly enough, why would I be saying that he has Vizcaino and Delgado higher than I would have them?
Obviously I wouldn’t swap Bauer and Teheran if they were traded. Perhaps my opinion would change as I got to know Bauer better, but I just disagree with the ranking based on what we know right now. I don’t see an advantage for Bauer in stuff or command and he’s far less proven at the professional level than Teheran is.
Why?
Why are you asking about me in the comment section of a blog post about John’s list? I’m at least discussing the topic at hand
Fair enough. Didn’t mean to make it about you. I just wonder about the objectivity of the comments of people whose every comment is directed at arguing that their own team’s prospects should be ranked higher than other teams’ prospects. Seems pointless, and makes me want to tune it out whatever numbers you throw out in the suspicion that they’re being cherry-picked.
I think fair arguments could be made to take Teheran or Bauer. Teheran did dominate AAA at an impressive age. Bauer has better command of his secondary stuff now, where with Teheran you have to hope he starts to command it. May seem “intangible”, but Bauer seems to me to have first-class makeup. I’d take Bauer, but it’s close and I wouldn’t say either choice is somehow wrong.
Bauer has issues with his command
Its probably the single biggest worry about him, with the possible exception of his size.
And if you really think all my comments here are about Braves prospects and where they should rank, then you don’t come around here all that much. I talk about Braves prospects a lot because they’re the guys I know the best, but I talk plenty about other teams prospects, especially while the minor league season is ongoing.
Not to nitpick
but the biggest worry about him has got to be his workload and extreme long tossing.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Doesn't work for everyone
but Bauer has said he never ever felt any pain in his arm or shoulder despite all those high pitch counts. Also remember in college he’s only throwing once every 7 days.
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Feb 24, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
I have no concerns about either personally. Generally speaking, those are the two things most commonly noted to ding him however.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Who has used the long tossing to ding him?
I’d like to know so I can ignore them from now on
Maybe I'm wrong.
but isn’t he criticized for doing long toss and highly strenuous warm up pitches before games and in between innings?
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
I mean people have talked about and some teams may not agree
But I don’t think any respected analysts have actually dinged him on their lists for the long tossing or his personal pitching program.
Never heard of a long tossing injury
It is the only thing you can do to develop arm strength.
Bauer does have issues with his command
But I stick with what I said – that Bauer has better command of his secondary stuff than Teheran. I might be wrong, but it looks that way to me. Teheran has work to do on the secondary stuff, and it may or may not come around.
i think most of the concern regarding Bauer's command
has to due with placement of his four-seam fastball
by blue bulldog on Feb 24, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Bauer’s floor seems much higher than Teheran’s, while his ceiling is pretty high as well. I agree with Bauer ranking ahead of Teheran.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 24, 2012 12:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bauer floor is higher than the guy who just dominated in AAA?
How do you figure that?
not dominant
To be clear, Teheran is clearly a great prospect. I’m not disagreeing on that. But his numbers in AAA last year we’re not dominant. They just weren’t. 7.9 K/9. 3 BB/9. Those numbers aren’t dominant.
He finished first in the league in ERA and second in FIP
He was running an FIP of ~2.5 out there until he tired over the last month of the season.
Bauer and college numbers
I think you are underestimating how much can be gleaned from college numbers, particularly strikeouts.
Pretty much every college pitcher I can think of who had elite strikeout rates at the level of Bauer turned out to be good major league starters, barring injury (which you don’t seem to be that concerned about below). The only one I can think of, who turned out less than spectacular, was Kris Benson, and his strikeout rates deteriorated when he hit AA and AAA (so I guess that’s something that we can look for when we follow Bauer’s rise through the minors).
Otherwise, the standard-bearers of high strikeout college guys seem to be Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Jered Weaver.
by blue bulldog on Feb 24, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Well can more be gleaned from college numbers or AAA numbers?
Because, like I said, Teheran finished first in the IL in ERA and second in FIP at an age where no one else has started regularly in the IL since at least 2005. So yeah, I’m going to give him a hell of a lot more credit for that than I’m going to give Bauer for posting great numbers in college. How many guys who have done things like that haven’t turned out to be good MLB starters, barring injury?
i honestly don't know
like you said, the 20-year old in AAA is a complete rarity. so i guess it ends up being how much stock do you put into the fact that his ARL is that good.
i guess i just don’t think ARL’s matter that much.
otherwise, there are basically no direct statistical profiles in the past five years that i could find that match Teheran’s performance from your point of view (looking for youngish SP prospects, which I even tried to expand to 23 years of age, with a great FIP but underwhelming strikeout rate).
the best i could find is:
2010 – Hellickson, Tillman, Nova. Don’t like either of them all that much, because Hellickson actually struck out a ton of people in the minors, and Tillman/Nova’s FIP were a half run worse than Teheran’s.
2007 – Kevin Slowey (actually the closest in my opinion, to the low FIP/underwhelming strikeout mold)
2006 – Jason Hammel (not a great statistical comp, because he actually gave up quite a few homers, which Teheran has shown to be good at avoiding in the minors)
of course, all of these guys were 22-23 year olds. so again, it boils down to how much you think ARL matters for a pitcher.
by blue bulldog on Feb 24, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
nixa37
I agree with everything you are saying. I was about to post the same questions. Is ii because Teheran struggled a tad in his ML call-up last year? He is 20 and I believe he did as well as you can expect any 20 year old to do. I understand with Moore and Darvish. But Bauer and Miller, I want to understand the logic behind these two.
God has to bruise you before he use you. So you'll be sensitive to his touch.
What about Luke Hochevar?
I don’t have his college stats in front of me, but IIRC he was a high K guy at Tennessee.
9.21 K/9 career. 9.92 K/9 junior year.
Bauer struck out 13.37 per 9 last year.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
strikeouts in college
mike leake’s senior year: 10.31 k/9
in mlb last year: 6.33 k/9
I’m sure he’ll improve in that category, though.
Kirk Saarloos has 9 strikeouts per nine innings in college, but only 4.4 k/9 in the majors.
people who strikeout
9-10 per 9 innings are not necessarily anything special, though many of them go on to be useful major leaguers (like Mike Leake)
but when you start getting into the 11-13K/9 range, given the increasing difficulty of improving your strikeout rate (going from 6-7K/9 to 8-9K/9 is a lot easier than going from 9-10K/9 to 11-12K/9), that’s when you see all those elite guys i mentioned above
by blue bulldog on Feb 25, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
When it comes down to it ...
You guys griping are Braves fans and critiquing a list that ranks one guy (Bauer) 3 spots ahead of your guy (Teheran) when both are in the TOP 10 sure seems like nitpicking, and it is reasonable to wonder what your concern is here.
When it comes down to it...
Yes I am a Braves fan. No I am not being a homer. Whether Teheran played for the Braves or any other team I will still have the same question. I completely understand the reasoning with everyone else ranked ahead of Teheran. I just wanted to know the reasoning of Bauer and Miller. Maybe there is a legit reasoning, I’m not arguing that. John knows a whole lot more about prospects than i will ever know. I just was curious of the reasoning why these two were ranked ahead. That is my gripe. If they are better than Teheran than so be it, I don’t care. That was not the point of my question…
God has to bruise you before he use you. So you'll be sensitive to his touch.
I think Bauer is much, much better
Because I have him on my fantasy team!
(this is not a reply to Army, I just like the spot)
You can't...dust...for vomit.
How am I critiquing the list?
I just expressed my personal thoughts on the Braves guys. I just don’t think Bauer has any business being in front of Teheran based on what we currently know. Outside of that, I didn’t have a problem with where Teheran was, I thought Delgado and Vizcaino were a little high if anything, and I loved the aggressive ranking of Simmons. How is that griping? Its just my comments on the guys I know best and where John has them ranked. I thought that’s what this comment section was for, you know, commenting on the post. At least I’m actually sticking to the post and not complaining about other people’s comment while adding nothing to the larger discussion.
Call me crazy ... but if you aren't critiquing the list ...
what on heaven’s earth are you doing?
I think Teheran is a tad on the low end, but the number doesn’t bother me as much as Bauer being ranked ahead of him.
And again – why should this bother you so much?
I don’t want to get into a pissing contest here as I really have no pony in the race, but if you can’t understand why people reading your comments think you are nitpicking a bit with an obvious bias towards Braves prospects then … well …
That's not critiquing, that's offering my opinion
And where are you getting the idea that it bothers me so much? It was a figure of speech. I was saying I don’t care about where he’s ranked as much as the fact that Bauer is ahead of him.
If you got the impression from that comment that I have a bias towards Braves prospects I don’t know what to tell you. I specifically said I thought two of the Braves prospects on the list were ranked higher than I would rank them. I get ragged on at the Braves SBN site because I’ve been so down on Braves prospects like Delgado (until his stuff looked better than expected in the majors) and Pastornicky. Hell, I spent a ton of time arguing that Teheran had no business being in the conversation with Moore for best pitching prospect. My only bias towards Braves prospects is that I follow them more closely and this know them better (both the good and the bad) than other team’s prospects.
Like I said, its a figure of speech
I was saying I don’t care about where he’s ranked as much as the fact that Bauer is ahead of him. It doesn’t mean it actually bothers me and certainly doesn’t bother me so much, like you’ve said.
traindogger, you started a fight for no reason
nixa’s comments are similar to a thousand other regulars on this site. Thats what goes on here. People debate the value of prospects.
Teheran "Doubts"
Nixa,
So, leaving aside all the banter above me, I’ll explain why I, personally, would likely rank Miller and Bauer ahead of Teheran. Admittedly, they are all close, all talented, and I have not personally seen each of them pitch live several times.
But, I have seen Teheran pitch in person in Durham against the bulls, in addition to his mlb video. My issue with Teheran, as others have pointed out, is the lack of a breaking ball. And I assure you, that lack of a breaking ball is obvious. Teheran’s got fantastic fastball-changeup command. They are fantastic pitches, good velo-contrast, good feel for sequencing with them, etc. The problem is that his development of a true breaking ball, i.e. curve or slider, has been relatively poor. And, to quote Keith Law, Goldstein, et al.: if the guy’s 21 and hasn’t thrown at least the occaisional plus breaking ball yet… it may never really come. Both the timing of the wrist and mastering the grip are tricky.
So, when I see Shelby Miller, I see a guy with massive strikeout numbers and a true curve. Change-up development is far more predictable/expectable. Now, would I have wanted Miller in the bigs right now? No. I think Teheran is more composed. But if you ask me in 3 years who is the more dominant pitcher? Assuming no injuries, I like Miller’s chances slightly better, because he can add the nasty plane-changing pitch that I am skeptical Teheran will ever possess at a plus-level.
As for Bauer, the same evaluation points exist. Bauer can shape the ball and has deception as well. Hence, I like his chances as emerging as a more dominant mlb force. The issue with Bauer is whether he’ll hold up physically over five years given his style and his crazy college workload.
Still, Teheran’s ceiling, without a plus breaking pitch, is a legitimate concern for many people, myself included. Could Teheran be the better pitcher than those two in a few years? Sure. But I think he’s going to have to pitch at a James Shields-style (obviously with a better fastball). Fastball-change is super effective against most of the world, but big league guys will adjust without a shift in plane. And, again, this year, despite Teheran’s fantastic overall stats, what I saw in August represented stagnation regarding the breaking pitch (even if the changeup was fantastic).
Lastly, if Teheran is called up sooner rather than later, that breaking pitch development will suffer further. Young pitchers rarely experiment with curveballs in the bigs compared with in AAA, because a hanging curve is the surest way to give up crooked numbers in an inning. Even elite guys like Cole Hamels, who worked hard on his curve, was reluctant to keep using it after he was giving up big hits. He’s since turned to the cutter as a way of developing that extra pitch.
by Nick Christie on Feb 25, 2012 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
Teheran's breaking ball regularly flashes plus
It’s at least an above average pitch. Yes, he has starts where he doesn’t have a feel for it and pretty much abandons it, but he also has starts where he’s snapping off great curves consistently. You probably happened to see one of his starts. I don’t know where this idea that he doesn’t have a breaking ball started. Pitchers don’t get ranked by scouts as a top 10 prospect without showing a breaking ball. The only two people I’ve ever seen grade it as anything worse than average are KLaw (not surprisingly right after his MLB debut) and Adam Foster over at Project Prospect, and even he has backed off his previous doubts about the pitch.
I’ve mentioned it before, but I’ll bring it up here again. The Braves don’t let young SP work on sliders. Because of this, there is no way of knowing how good of a slider Teheran is capable of throwing. It should certainly lessen worries over the curve though, as the slider is an easier to pitch to learn as its not necessarily something you either have in your wrist or you don’t, like a curve.
And its funny you bring up August, as Teheran clearly tired by August and struggled over that last month. Prior to that he had an FIP in the 2.50 range (compared to the 3.06 he ended up with). Did you actually see him live in August? If so, where?
Also, have you seen Bauer’s curve since he started pitching professionally? I have no idea how its looked, but people always seem to lose sight of the fact that the baseballs they use in college are much easier to throw breaking balls with than professional balls. If Teheran had spent last year pitching in college, you can bet people would be talking about the crazy good curve he was throwing as well.
I know where it started :)
Nixa,
It’s clear that you believe in Teheran’s curve, both currently and as it projects. If that’s your belief, then we’re not really in debate over Teheran’s ranking analysis. From an analysis perspective, if you believe in the curve then you believe in Teheran’s ceiling more than those that do not.
As to where this idea started (and continues): some people haven’t seen it :). I happen to agree with Keith Law, who has Teheran down at 19; Goldstein happens to agree with you, having Teheran up at 5. John’s clearly high in Teheran, but nitpicking, his gut says Miller and Bauer are a few spots higher.
As I said above, I’ve only seen Teheran live in AAA in Durham. Checking the box score, I saw him on July 26. And I was extremely impressed, as Teheran stuck out 9 and walked one in six innings. As I said above, I saw great location, great sequencing, and great velo. I saw only poor attempts at a curve. I then texted other guys I know in Atlanta and beyond, saying: hey, I’m watching Teheran. He’s great, but I’m watching a guy with no breaking ball. They replied: yep, we have’t seen it either.
If it exists/shall exist, then Teheran will be even better than his ‘doubters’ already think he can be. My own opinion is that if you’re holding out hope that a guy is going to develop a plus slider in the big leagues, you’re holding out hope for the improbable. The idea is a sharp, snapping curve. That’s what I saw attempted and what KLaw said he’s seen (and KLaw actually wrote that he saw improvement over the season). If that pitch comes around, then fantastic. Believe me, I’d prefer to ‘root’ for that to happen, as I love watching dominant pitching.
You don’t need to quote me FIP on Teheran. He dominated AAA, albeit with a lower strikeout rate. It’s that lower strikeout rate (combined with observations of lacking a curve) that reflects my opinion.
As for Bauer, all I’ve got is video like everyone else, i.e. youtube. And consensus that he throws a ton of different styles of pitches, which, if you pick the best 3-4, offer a varied repetoire rare in a young pitcher. This is why he won the Golden Spikes Award and went third overall in the best pitching first round in many years.
by Nick Christie on Feb 25, 2012 2:26 AM EST up reply actions
Again, guys without a curve don't crack a top 10 overall list
Do you really think someone like KG is going to rank Teheran #5 overall if people he talks to tell him that they haven’t seen Teheran ever throw a good curve? This is what I find so funny about the whole Teheran curve ball thing. Scouts have watched him a ton over the past few years and he consistently gets rave reviews. That doesn’t happen for a guy who completely lacks a breaking ball. Since you noted Law saying Teheran’s curve “progressed” (I read that as Law basically admitting the initial opinion was largely based on the Teheran’s two early MLB starts that he watched, but let’s leave that aside), that’s now every evaluator I’ve ever seen really question the curve admit that it is better than their initial reports.
I just don’t see why your convinced, based on the one start you saw, that he doesn’t actually possess a usable breaking ball, when literally no one else is questioning it to that level.
As for the lower strikeout rate, again he tired in August (what happened to your claim you saw him then BTW?), but up to that point he was striking out just below a guy an inning.
And I’m not holding out hope that Teheran develops a plus slider in the big leagues. I’m simply commenting on your worry about his ability to throw a decent breaking ball. Like I said, he’s never worked on the slider in games, so its entirely possible he can throw an at least average slider. As for the idea that its especially improbable or something, I’d point to Brandon Beachy, who just added in his slider at the start of the 2011 season. From the get go it was a plus-plus pitch.
Good Luck
Nixa,
Telling someone that because someone else ranks a player highly proves the existence of something is not a good argument. Kevin Goldstein had Chris Carter has his 11th best prospect in 2010. Horrible then; even more horrible in retrospect :).
Also, were you not a big Teheran fan (and obviously a passionate Braves fan), I think you’d be less adamant. Maybe of the same opinion, but not posting 20 times about Teheran.
For what it’s worth, I just pulled up my MLB account and watched Teheran’s first two innings in a start at Arizona. He threw a few good curveballs, better than anything I saw. Good luck to him.
Until then, it doesn’t matter whether Teheran’s 5, 9, or 19.
by Nick Christie on Feb 25, 2012 3:09 AM EST up reply actions
It has nothing to do with the ranks themselves
It has to do with the scouting reports that lead to those ranks. And we’re not talking about an outlier rank here, like your example with Carter. The industry consensus (as much of one as there can be at least) is that Teheran is an elite pitching prospects. Guys don’t get termed elite pitching prospects by that many people without having a breaking ball.
Look, me responding so much has nothing to do with the team Teheran plays for beyond the fact that I feel confident in my opinion because I follow him closely. If you’ve seen me post here a lot, I respond to just about every response on any strong position I take, whether or not its Braves related. I don’t come to these sorts of positions lightly. I put a lot of thought into them and I will do my best to explain to those who disagree why I think they are wrong. On the Braves SBN site I’ve made far more than 20 posts in a thread about how it was ridiculous for an author to claim Teheran was arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball when Moore is clearly ahead of him.
Like you just admitted, Teheran does flash a good curve. In no way is it as bad as you initially made it out to be, which has been my position throughout our conversation. I don’t care that much about the number ranking (which I said in my initial post that you replied to). I’m more interested in the case for ranking a mostly unknown who doesn’t have significantly better scouting reports ahead of Teheran (you may notice that at no point have I said a word about Miller ranking ahead of Teheran because I think that is perfectly justifiable).
Teheran's curve
I had the opportunity to see Teheran multiple times throughout the year. I might be biased because I’m a braves fan, but it seemed like it steadily got better, and he steadily had more confidence in it. He’ll flash a 60 or even 65 breaking ball at different points in the game, leaving you salivating over his potential, but he also tends to throw a lot of spinners. There were some starts where it seemed like he would completely abandon the pitch and some starts where he would use it as much as his change. I feel that his arm angle would translate to a slider better than a curve, but the braves seem to not let young pitchers throw sliders, I personally think the slider is fine as long as it’s not abused. Guys like Beachy have even just gone back to the slider and have had a lot more success with it.
Mike Scott was what Willis was talking about.
This seems not to be backed up by actual facts
Teheran threw a curve 16% of the time according to fangraphs in his big league appearances. Change 19%. To say he does not have any sort of breaking ball seems incorrect.
Now if you want to question how effective it is – that is another topic.
I really wonder what the consensus would be on Teheran if he had yet to make his big league debut. I would think they would be more favorable. A 20 year old struggled in a brief look in the bigs? Really? Of course he did! Give him some credit for actually making it there.
i don't think anyone really cares about the big league debut
most of the detractors (imo) care more about his strikeout/stuff ratio
by blue bulldog on Feb 25, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting comp
Pedro in AAA (strike out per 9 of 8.69). Is this considered dominant? He was the same age as Teheran (20). AA numbers? (9.22 K per 9).
Teheran 7.57 K per 9 at AAA. 8.55 K per 9 at AA the year before. In AAA Teheran actually walked one less batter per 9 compared to Pedro (2.98 to 4.01).
Now I know we are comparing two different leagues 20 years apart – and I am in no way saying Teheran is going to be Pedro.
I just think to say based on the fact that he struck out ONLY 7.57 per 9 in AAA at the age of 20 he can not possibly become a front line starter is a little over the top.
Who really knows? He could be Juan Cruz. But so could Bauer. Sometimes you just have to go on the best info you have – and posting the numbers Teheran did at 20 in AAA indicates he COULD be very special.
Comparing people to Pedro is stupid
He was one of the most dominant pitchers EVER in his prime.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 25, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
Like he said, he's not really comparing them
He’s pointing out that one of the most dominant pitchers ever didn’t post elite K rates in the upper minors at age 19-20 either. Maybe people are putting just a bit too much focus on Teheran’s K rate in light of that fact.
He is comparing them
The title even said “interesting comp” and then compares the two players K rates at the same age. That is called a “comparison”.
I might add that I like Teheran more than Bauer, but when people compare guys to a future HOF and one of the all time most dominant arms it is just stupid. When you are looking for proof, don’t look for the exceptions but instead what the norm says.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 26, 2012 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Like he said...
I am in no way saying Teheran is going to be Pedro. I just think to say based on the fact that he struck out ONLY 7.57 per 9 in AAA at the age of 20 he can not possibly become a front line starter is a little over the top.
It was a comparison in the sense that he compared their numbers at the same ages at the same levels. He’s not saying they are going to have at all similar careers.
Except their strikeout rates are not similar
Pedro (age 20): AAA 8.9k/9
Teheran (age 20): AAA 7.59k/9
That is a HUGE advantage for Pedro. Striking out a batter per inning as a 20 year old in AAA is dominant. What Teheran did isn’t dominant but is still very good.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 26, 2012 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
Except no one said their strikeout rates were similar
His point was that Pedro’s K rate wasn’t all that much better and he turned into one of the most dominant pitchers ever. Why is it crazy to think Teheran could develop into a “mere” TOR starter in light of that fact?
Also, let’s not lose sight of the fact that Teheran had been much more dominant until he hit the wall in August. Through his first 20 starts (the same number Pedro made in his age 20 season at AAA), Teheran struck out 22.9% of the AAA batters he faced, while Pedro struck out 23.5% of the AAA batters he faced.
It was all that much better
It was over 1.3 k/9 better. That is a big difference. I also love how you say “no one said their strikeout rates were similar” and in the next line you say “Pedro’s K rate wasn’t all that much better”. Would that not mean they are similar?
Also, why do you think that I don’t like Teheran? I have said I like him more than Bauer. I just think that you are being way too biased for Teheran and will not rest until everyone agrees with your opinion even though you will not listen to their opinions.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 26, 2012 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
Where did I say you don't like Teheran?
And again, Teheran tired down the stretch. Through the same number of starts, there K number were much closer, and once you take into account the fact that Pedro faced more batters, they’re pretty darn close. I’m not trying to convert you to my opinion or anything. I honestly couldn’t care less. The only reason I responded was because you replied to him just to say “comparing people to Pedro is stupid,” without saying a damn thing about what he actually had to say.
I’m not going to get into an argument over the semantics of a word like similar. There is no set amount where you go from similar, to not similar. Let’s just put it this way, Teheran struck out 1.3 less per 9 in AAA. If he also strikes out 1.3 less per 9 than Pedro in the majors, that would put him at 8.7 K/9, which is more than high enough to be a TOR SP.
I love how you keep saying that you aren't comparing him to Pedro and than you go make a comparison to Pedro
I get your schtick but honestly can’t waste any more time on you in regards to Braves prospects. Here is some advice:
If you don’t want to be treated like a Homer simply don’t act like one.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 26, 2012 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not comparing them as players
I’m comparing their stats. How do you not get that? In no way am I saying they are similar pitchers at the same age (I didn’t see Pedro when he was that young) or that they will end up being similar pitchers.
And way to go the homer route. Its BS like this that has caused me to take long breaks from this site in the past. I’m not a homer for Braves prospects. In this very thread I said I thought too were rated too highly (and I said I didn’t have a problem with Teheran coming in at #10). I get bitched at over on the Braves SBN site because I’m “down” on certain Braves guys and because I didn’t think there was any argument for Teheran over Moore. Just because I happen to like a particular Braves prospect a lot doesn’t mean I’m homer.
But hey when you don't have a counterpoint
Personal attacks are always the best way to go. I thought you were better than that KBR.
I have made numerous counterpoints
But you choose to ignore them.
Also, you do realize that their stats don’t compare? Pedro had a much better K rate at the same age in a more offensive league.
In regards to the homer comment I stand by the saying “If it looks like a duck………”
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 26, 2012 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Also, this is the last time I will respond in the thread
Nixa, you are not a bad poster, but at least admit you are biased to Braves prospects. Everyone knows certain posters are homers (Mr. Maniac, Bosox) but at least they acknowledge their bias.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 26, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
No because I'm not biased
Dude, what the hell are you talking about? How many Braves prospects have I talked up this offseason? Two…Teheran and Simmons. That’s it. I’m not talking about Delgado, Vizcaino, Bethancourt, Salcedo, Gilmartin, etc. because I think they’re either correctly rated or overrated. Did you ever consider that maybe its because I think highly of those guys because I follow them closely and not that I’m high on those guys because they’re Braves prospects? Go look at my track record if you want. Every offseason I get labeled a homer for my stance on a particular Braves prospect and amazingly enough I get proven right once the next season rolls around.
What point of yours didn't I address?
Yes, Pedro had a better K rate. I’ve never argued that point because he obviously did. I did however address it by pointing out that Teheran had almost the exact same K% until the final month of the season when Teheran clearly became gassed. Now, that is a legitimate worry, that Teheran can’t handle a full 200 IP workload. In fact, that is my single biggest worry with him. I’m simply not worried about his upside because of a “mediocre” K rate in AAA at age 20.
does what Pedro did have anything whatsoever to do with Teheran?
You are taking numbers out of context from the most dominant pitcher to ever play the game to state that Teheran could become a TOR.
1) No one has ever stated TOR is out of the realm of possibility for Teheran. We doubt this will happen but it is certainly possible.
2) You state that you are not comparing to Pedro and yet use some of Pedros numbers. This is comparing.
3) The numbers are not used correctly. 1.3K per 9 is huge. Pedro also was in the PCL, I’m not sure how that affects things.
4) Pedro had scouting reports to backup his predicted ability to K hitters at the major league level.
5) Using an outlier to make a point, especially a HOF caliber one, is bad logic IMO.
I think you're missing his point
Its not about comparing Teheran and Pedro, its about 20 year olds K rates in AAA.
1) Quite a few people have said his ceiling is a #2. Now that might mean its out of the realm of possibility, but it does imply there is almost no chance
2) Its comparing their numbers. Its not comparing them as players. I can compare Pedro’s numbers to Maddux’s numbers. That doesn’t mean I’m saying they are similar pitchers. He’s also not the first person to comp Teheran and Pedro (even though I agree its not a great comp). If you really hate comparing his numbers to Pedro, then just compare them to Bumgarner’s instead. The point is that 20 year olds that pitch great in AAA seem to see their K rates rise as they develop in the majors.
3) That’s not really part of my personal argument. Yes, Pedro’s K rate was better, but like I showed above, through the same number of starts they had almost the exact same K%.
4) Teheran doesn’t have scouting reports to back up his potential? Seriously? There’s a reason that Teheran has been ranked higher the past 2 seasons than Pedro ever was.
5) I’m not the one who brought it up, I’m just trying to keep his point in context. Like I said, if you want another example to make the point, look no further than Bumgarner.
sorry but no
His point was only one thing – that someone without huge K rates could become an ace pitcher. He used Pedro to somehow show Teheran also could become an ace without huge K rates. Any comparisons to Pedro are silly. And flawed ones are more silly.
point 2 – of course it’s comparing them as players. Please don’t play this game with me. The whole point of this comparison game is to show how Pedro didn’t have sick K rates in AAA and yet became the star he did. And then to say “hey, Teheran can also do the same”. If you he wasn’t comparing to Pedro then he wouldn’t have listed Pedro.
point 3 – again you are going back to Pedro. Lets just keep away from these comparisons. I don’t think they contribute anything.
point 4 – please read my point for the first time. Did I state Teheran had no scouting material to back his potential? Or did I state that Pedro had scouting material to back his huge K spike? You could infer that I stated there wasn’t scouting reports to state Teheran would have a huge K spike. You could read your own scouting which would back my statements. You could read Law, etc. I have heard lots of glowing reports about Teheran. I have heard nothing speaking of expected huge K rates, just many reports speaking of inconsistent secondaries but with promise. But please read my comment before taking it out of context.
point 5 – you would do better to just stay away from this point, IMO it’s just flawed logic and doesnt help your stance.
Let's say we read it differently and move on from that
A couple things though…
3. You just finished saying how the numbers were not used correctly and how his K rate was so much higher. I show you how through the same number of starts they posted virtually identical K% against AAA hitters and suddenly its lets keep away from this comparison? Again, my whole point (leaving as that of the OP) is that its ridiculous to hold a merely decent K rate against a 20 year old starter in AAA, especially when the guy was actually posting an great K rates (at least based on what people are saying about Pedro’s) until he tired late in the year (which as I’ve said is my only real worry with him.
4. Fine, I’ll rephrase, does Teheran not have the scouting reports to back up a K spike? Because that just seems ridiculous to me. He’s got a curve that regularly flashes plus and a change that could easily end up being plus-plus. I wasn’t paying attention at the time, but what was Pedro’s scouting report at the time?
5. So we can’t discuss Pedro because he’s too good and we can’t discuss Bumgarner either because its just flawed logic? Are we allowed to compare Teheran to any of the rare examples of guys dominating AAA at 20?
reply
3. No real need to go over it because I think it’s mostly irrelevant. Yes, at times he showed high K rates. Yes, he has at times shown statistically he can K at a high rate. Comparing to Pedro isn’t the way to go. My biggest problem though is his stuff currently doesn’t lead me to believe he will ever K a lot. Maybe a slider will change that.
4. At the moment no it doesn’t. At least not in my opinion. I guess I’m jaded. I don’t see people that truly believe that curve will become his out pitch. Yes, if it became consistent he would definitely have that ability.
5. Nah, we could discuss Bumgarner. He is a weird case though because Bumgarner saw a big uptick in velocity.
Nixa = Statham?
I feel like I’m one of the random bad guys in the Transporter. It takes a team of us to come at Nixa, and he’s just standing in the middle, shirt off, covered in oil, and roundhouse kicking all comers.
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Statham of prospecting?
I like it, though I’m not nearly that short or bald and people probably wouldn’t like it quite as much if I was sitting there with my shirt off covered in oil. I do have a pretty sick nasty roundhouse kick though.
Cain Comparison
Yeah, I’m not sure how many roundhouses you actually land, but you certainly don’t tire of throwing them.
Here’s a straight hypothetical for you. Were we back in 2005, and a 20-year-old Teheran is going against a 20-year-old Matt Cain, would you be equally adament that everyone who liked Cain more than Teheran is wrong?
Cain had a high walkrate, much lower FIP than an (albeit in the PCL), but he struck out 176 in 145 innings (10.87). If I say, you know, I don’t see Teheran striking out anyone with the curve, but I see Matt Cain’s potential as higher than Teheran’s (which is akin to saying why I like Trevor Bauer more than Teheran, which you’ve been attacking for days now), do you say my analysis is flawed?
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Edit:
Obviously I mean that Cain had a much higher FIP than Teheran. Wish we could edit posts.
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
I attacked an incorrect comment you made
About Teheran’s curve. You have since admitted that you watched video of his start in Arizona and saw him throw some good curves. Do you really have an issue with me pointing out an incorrect statement, that you have admitted was incorrect, that you made? You’d rather continue to be wrong about him then have someone point out your mistake? If someone wants to rank Bauer higher than Teheran, that’s fine, but I disagree. I’m more than willing to listen to their reasoning, and there’s a good chance I’ll comment on it. If you see that as attacking, I don’t know what to tell you.
I’m not sure how you can compare Bauer to Cain as Cain had just finished dominating in AAA, while Bauer has all of 25.2 pro innings and struggled a bit in them. Cain also had a classic pitcher’s body, unlike either Bauer or Teheran. How would saying I might take Cain over Teheran at all relevant to whether I’d take Bauer over Teheran? Honsetly, I’m not sure who I would rate higher, Cain or Teheran. A lot of it would come down to reports about their stuff. But again, it is in absolutely no way relevant to a discussion of Bauer v. Teheran.
Look
I’m not going to debate with you for weeks. Me saying I saw Teheran throw a few good curveballs does not equate to me admitting my entire point about his weak cuve is wrong.
Second, stop giving Bauer no credit. Change the hypo from Cain to Lincecum comign out of college if you want. Whatever. If Lincecum was coming out, you’d be ranting about college baseballs being easier to throw, high walk rates, etc. You know you would. You’d be saying how stupid we all are for ranking Lincecum higher than Teheran.
Let’s see how it plays out. For now: I’m down on Teheran’s curve and high on Bauer. That ain’t chaning until they play some more games. Keep kicking, though.
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Go read your first two posts again
Some selected quotes…
My issue with Teheran, as others have pointed out, is the lack of a breaking ball.
if the guy’s 21 and hasn’t thrown at least the occaisional plus breaking ball yet… it may never really come.
And, again, this year, despite Teheran’s fantastic overall stats, what I saw in August represented stagnation regarding the breaking pitch (even if the changeup was fantastic).
This one is made even worse by the fact you didn’t see him in August, others have talked about the improvements in Teheran’s curve during the year, and it was based on a single start.
If it [the curve] exists/shall exist, then Teheran will be even better than his ‘doubters’ already think he can be.
(combined with observations of lacking a curve)
So after all that, you actually go and watch some of his MLB video (which BTW you claimed earlier you had already watched), and what do you know…
He threw a few good curveballs
How exactly is that not contradicting all of the quotes from above?
Also,
I like the comparison of Bauer to Lincecum right after the huge debate about the stupidity of comparing Teheran to Pedro.
Go the gym
More productive than just exercising your fingers shouting at me.
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
Actually just got back from the gym
And I’m not shouting at you, I’m merely pointing out factually incorrect statements you are making.
I mean seriously
Can you not admit that you clearly said yourself that you were wrong about Teheran’s curve?
Sure
I was too firm when I said he couldn’t throw an occaisional break pitch. Sleep more soundly.
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
"exercising your fingers shouting at me."
Thank you for stopping by Minor League Bawl, Mr. Christie, where we provide the brick wall for you to bang your head against. We trust your exchange was a thankless one? lol
by charles wallace on Feb 26, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's been awesome
My favorite part has been dismissing Trevor Bauer because college baseballs are “easy” to throw.
Nixa watching the History Channel:
“Yeah, I’m not buying all the Rosa Parks hype. That woman was old and had bad knees. If she were a spry 20-year-old Columbian who could have done shuttle runs back-and-foth? THEN I’d be impressed with staying in the front.”
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
History Channel related insults?
I guess you’re at least creative. But back to the discussion, I never once dismissed Bauer, I just said I don’t think he belongs in front of Teheran. As for the discussion on college baseballs, have you ever compared a college baseball to a pro baseball? College baseballs have big seems that stick out, just like every other baseball used by amateurs. Pro baseballs have almost no seems. This not only makes it easier to grip a college ball, but it makes a pitch with the same spin profile move more due to the increased air resistance.
No kidding
Granted, I’ve only perused this exchange but it all seems so familiar. To quote (The Great) Gonzo ‘vaguely familiar..’
Also
I saw him on July 26, not in August, so yes, I’m an a-hole.
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
"July 26, not in August"
But the fact that you saw him on July 26, not six days later on August 1, completely discredits your opinion. Surely you can see that?! lol
by charles wallace on Feb 26, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, two days later, I have
Two loooong days later.
by Nick Christie on Feb 26, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
When you can't make a real argument...
Well you probably know the rest
"Two loooong days later."
I hope you’ve learned a valuable lesson. I’d advise consulting your date book or journal before making your rash assertions around here. Harrrumph!
by charles wallace on Feb 26, 2012 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Did you guys miss the rest?
You know, the part where he talked about the stagnation of the curve development throughout the season, while more knowledgeable people (including Keith Law who is down on him) have said the exact opposite.
it is only a couple spots
I like jt above bauer too, but I’m not big on bauer and would have Cole above both. Seems rather trivial to squabble about 2/3 spots in placement, even in the higher ranks.
Read my initial post
I simply stated my position on Teheran and Bauer. Everything since then has been responding to comments other people have made about the two. Like I said from the start, I don’t take issue with Teheran’s ranking, I just personally can’t see the case for him ahead of Teheran. I think they are different tiers of prospects, which is why I don’t think Bauer has a good reason to be in front of him.
Nixa - I think you do yourself an injustice when you discuss Teheran and his curve
the issue isn’t whether Teheran can occasionally spin a good curve. I remember Lincecum throwing some nasty curves but he got rid of that pitch. Only to eventually bring it back.
The thing is even if a pitcher throws 75% nasty 80 grade curves if the other 25% are spinners the pitcher will ditch that option.
The question for Teheran is not whether it shows potential. It does. He throws too many spinners. High ones at that. Then again that is to be expected it’s not like he plans for the spinners to sit up in the zone.
I recognize Atlanta doesn’t have their pitchers throw sliders. If they did I would probably rank Teheran in the 35 range. But given he hasn’t spent time on the slider which naturally suits him better I would put him in the 15 to 20 range.
IMO Teheran has huge upside that I sometimes thing people ignore. But he also has quite a bit of risk. We really don’t know what his secondaries will be. Personally I think his curve will be nothing more than a show me pitch. But I still hold out hope for the slider.
All I can say is read the initial exchange
He was basically saying that Teheran had no curve, it had stagnated throughout the season (which even the pitch’s two biggest critics have disagreed with), and implying that he had never thrown a good curve yet so we shouldn’t expect him ever to throw one.
Like you said, the pitch shows potential. That is all I was ever saying. My issue was the guy saying he had no curve and since he hadn’t spun a good one yet, had little potential to ever add a decent one. He’s just a 20 year old pitcher that isn’t consistent enough with his breaking ball yet, but he clearly has the potential for a good one.
Alright, this isn’t meant as an attack or anything, and I want to make it clear before hand so its not read that way. But really, you would rank Teheran in the 35 range if he Atlanta let young pitchers throw sliders? I’m sorry, but I just think you’re missing the forest for the trees. He’s a 20 year old that dominated AAA. He’s got great velocity and a great change. IMO you’d basically have to assume Teheran would never develop an average third pitch to rank him that low, and I see no reason to think that’s the case even if he had already worked on a slider and not perfected it (and I have only seen two people call his curve below average, both have noted improvement, and at least one now projects it as above average).
I guess its just different strokes for different folks. I just can’t comprehend terming a guy who dominated AAA as a 20 year old as having quite a bit of risk (obviously beyond the inherent injury risk with every young pitcher). If you choose to see him that way, so be it.
reply
I agree the pitch shows potential and I’m keeping out of the “he hasn’t spun a good one” argument. It’s untenable.
Re:35 – If Atlanta allowed him to throw sliders and his stuff is where it is now, no slider to speak of, then yeah I would rank him around 35. That is because he would look like he was bound for the pen. Yes, his curve could improve but with the odds I would put him around 35 expecting the pen.
As it stands now they haven’t worked on the slider so there is no way I would writeoff his ability to throw one. On the other hand I won’t give him credit for it either.
He is young and very talented but I like to see a consistent breaking ball before I rank him higher.
To put it another way
I can compare the number of HRs that Mantle and Maris hit in 1961. That doesn’t mean I’m actually comparing them as players.
Really?
Why did Minor shelve his slider until 2011? Why did Hanson shelve his until he was about to make the move to AA? Why did Beachy not throw a slider until this year? Who was the last Braves SP who regularly featured a slider in the low minors?
"[Temporarily shelving the slider] isn’t a blanket policy. We don’t take things away from pitchers. We try to work within the framework of what they have to work with, and which pitching package we think is going to help them be most successful. At this point, with our current pitching program, we don’t specifically say, ‘You can’t do this,’ or ‘You can’t do that.’"
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12177
Which isn't an example of a young SP throwing a slider
Perhaps they don’t make an explicit blanket policy of not allowing it (so perhaps my wording was too strong), but they clearly have a program that the vast majority of SP have followed. That program is based on focusing on three pitches (FB, CU, CH) early in development. Yes, the timing of when to try other pitches is almost certainly decided on an individual basis, but I think the Braves have a pretty clear pattern in mind for how they develop guys. Again, who was the last highly regarded Braves SP prospect that started throwing a slider in the low minors? I’m honestly curious if there are any.
Or in Hanson's words:
The organization didn’t let me throw a slider in A-ball…the Braves didn’t want me to throw it until I got to Double-A. I think that’s pretty much the organizational philosophy. They’re geared toward throwing more of a curveball than a slider.
Your statement…
“I’ve mentioned it before, but I’ll bring it up here again. The Braves don’t let young SP work on sliders”
…is not true. Your quote is proof enough. Do they work on it later in the minors with most pitchers? It seems that is the standard operating procedure. Do they “not let young SP work on sliders?” No, that’s a completely invalid statement. With regards to the conversation you are arguing with everyone over, Teheran will most likely never develop a slider.
"The organization didn’t let me throw a slider in A-ball"
Even the verb in both statements is the exact same. Like I said, perhaps my wording was too strong, but in general, The Braves don’t let young SP work on sliders. That’s all I was saying. Who knows if Teheran will add a slider or not, but I think the fact that no one has seen him throw one in game shows that it hasn’t been a priority until now. My guess would be is that they will spend a time this spring working on a slider, and if it looks good start working it in to games immediately. I will admit though, if I don’t see him working on a slider at all this year, I will go ahead and assume its a pitch he will never throw.
Your wording was more than “too strong.” It was incorrect, like I had said and like you had argued. No sense in going on with this anymore.
You can't be serious
Me:
The Braves don’t let young SP work on sliders
Tommy Hanson, a young pitcher:
The organization didn’t let me throw a slider in A-ball
Then we add in the fact that you can’t name a single young Braves SP that features a slider, and I think its pretty clear there is a general (if not blanket) policy that young Braves SP don’t work on sliders. I’ll end this with Tommy Hanson agreeing with my take on the situation (I think he may be closer to it than either of us):
I think that’s pretty much the organizational philosophy. They’re geared toward throwing more of a curveball than a slider
Fun fact...
Teheran is still younger now than Hanson was when the Braves let him start working on a slider again…just saying
Because once you get to double-A, you are no longer young? I’m not out here playing your stupid games, Mr. internet commenter. Your initial statement was completely wrong, as have most of the statements you’ve made on this post. And fun fact to your fun fact below, it’s pointless as their progressions through the minor leagues were completely different. You are awarded no points, and may god have mercy on your soul.
The jist of what I said was 100% correct
The Braves, even if it is not an explicit, blanket policy, generally don’t have young starters work on sliders. They made Hanson shelve his, they made Minor shelve his, they didn’t have Beachy work on one, etc. You still haven’t been able to name one young, highly regarded Braves SP prospect that featured a slider. For all intents and purposes, what I said was correct. There is no reason to assume Teheran is unable to throw a slider, because all evidence points to the fact that he has never really worked on one.
I expect more than this from someone who is a writer for multiple sites. I admitted from the get go that my wording may have been too strong, but the point still stands that the Braves don’t generally work with young SP on sliders so there is no reason to think that Teheran has already been working on one and failed to develop it. Yet you still keep attacking the point over and over again simply because the Braves don’t have an explicit policy against, even if they have a de facto one. I may come across as argumentative, but then again I’m not trying to be a writer for multiple internet sites. This certainly doesn’t reflect well on you or those that let you write for their sites.
actually Teheran
is a perfect example of a guy that should throw a slider, his arm angle and mentality all point to a more effective slider, infact, I think it bodes well for him as a pitcher that he was able to throw the curve he was throwing from his arm angle
"Your an idiot" (jrod1142)
"*You're" (swainzy)
From one of the greatest posts of all time
As much as I respect you as a writer I don't believe this is true
I’ve actually worked with a former braves pitching coach for the last couple of years and he has said to me, on numerous occasions, that the brave try to get there young pitchers to throw a curve rather than a slider, and give them every opportunity to make the curve work. Generally, they let guys go back to the slider when they’re older and more experienced and are less likely to over use it.
"Your an idiot" (jrod1142)
"*You're" (swainzy)
From one of the greatest posts of all time
When can we expect to see the following prospects hit the majors?
Profar, Machado, D’Arnaud, Arenado, Bundy, Myers, Walker
Thanks in advance — great list John!
Looking over the list compared to the grades
It appear you’re materially higher now on Banuelos and Bandon Nimmo (borderline B- in the top 20 write-up, now in top 100), and a little lower on Trevor May (indicated you considered him for A-, 20 spots away from A- on this list).
Maybe you could give a little colour on what you see a little differently. Enjoyed the list – thanks!
I must say
that this is imo the best list to come out this year.
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Feb 24, 2012 12:17 PM EST reply actions
I understand that part. But it’s like grading a team’s draft on draft day. We won’t know if this is the best list for several years. At this point, a list is a list. If it’s well thought out (and this clearly is) then at this point it’s just as good as the rest.
by Dorn on Feb 24, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Some of them
do not seem as well thought out.
Part of it, of course, is that we get a lot of behind-the-scenes views of John’s thinking. That helps to explain his grades and rankings better than a less transparent list.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 24, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Ok
well let me further explain my attempt at a compliment to John. I pay attn to all baseball sites year round and from all the information I’ve heard and what’s in my head this is what I’d imagine a top 100 or top 120 list looks like. Other lists have made me scratch my head and desire some sort of explanation for why this player is here and whatnot. John’s list IMO is closest to what I’d expect. But its just like my opinion man. Not saying this is the exact order of value these players are going to bring to their teams in the future or any other infantile conclusion you thought i was making. I acknowledge you are much smarter and understanding than me. I will not try to make stupid compliments anymore. My apologies for speaking. I hope I explained clearly what I was intending but I certainly now see the grave error of my ways. I am awarded no points and may God have mercy on my soul.
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Feb 24, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not being a dick, sorry if you took it that way. You didn’t make a stupid compliment…John more than deserves the compliment.
I just think lists are so volatile….it’s hard to use “best” or “worst” on any of them, assuming, like I said, the author has connections and puts thought into his work.
Well
Thank you for bringing that to my attn…
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Feb 24, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Aren't you basically saying this list...
Would most closely resemble yours if you were to produce one? Thus calling it the “best” or most agreeable in your mind. Nothing wrong with that. What is someone supposed to say about a list? “I may or may not like this list in 4 years” ???
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Wouldn't you agree
that some lists loo like complete garbage? Like they are based more on last year’s rankings than they should be or like they just looked at one set of scouting reports. Clearly, some put more research and thought into their work making it better. It is part writing and part research. Not every essay merits a scholarship…nor does every scientific study yield meaningful results.
I like the site a lot as its very informative
but Fangraphs having Tony Sanchez as the Bucs 4th best prospect kind of did that for me.
well
the only thing i would say is this – you can’t judge a draft solely on hindsight. For example, let’s take the NFL draft. Marques Colston certainly outperformed where he was selected, and in a “re-do” would go significantly higher that year. But did he deserve to go higher at the time?
I certainly get your point, I’m just saying that judging things like the draft and prospect lists can’t be solely done on hindsight.
Good point in that some guys get missed
but the baseball draft is a different animal from the other ones. Guys drop (especially high school guys) because of signability. That won’t happen with the other 3 sports.
I'll stump for Colston
He should have gone a lot higher (and easily could have) but NFL teams seem to treat what used to be the second day as more of a ‘hole filling’ exercise than they should in my opinion. He had a great mix of size & speed which should have alleviated ‘tweener’ concerns & played well against Division 1 types in All Star settings pre-Draft. He probably wouldn’t have gone higher than the fourth round or so if a team was bullish, but he was an outright larceny type selection in the seventh round. Guys drop all the time that shouldn’t & some pan out in a big way & others get lost in the shuffle. A lot of it is ‘fit’ & Colston found a near perfect one in NO.
A question for John (or anyone else if they want to answer)
What pitcher and what hitter in the back 40 – spots 81-120 – do you see as having the best chance of jumping into the top thirty next year?
For me it would be Keyvius Sampson and Mason Williams.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 24, 2012 12:19 PM EST reply actions
No doubt on Mason Williams as the hitter
I’d probably go Mike Montgomery as far as pitchers go, but Sampson is definitely on the list.
Besides Williams, I like Nimmo, Baez, and Guerrieri.
by rlwhite on Feb 24, 2012 1:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
those are good candidates
Also Guerrieri. Robert Stephenson. Story. Corcino
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
I have very high hopes for trevory story
If he stays in colorado and is forced to 2nd base he could be a monster.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Feb 24, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
I like Guerriri and Story as well
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Feb 24, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I mean assuming he doesn't graduate
I’d think Montgomery would be a good candidate
Not Listed
But I’d add Matt Purke in that group. If he’s healthy (which it seems he is), I have a feeling he will kill the lower minors and get a lot of pub. Remember he was a potential #1 overall pick before the injury questions…
Count by team, for those interested
Arizona Diamondbacks 3
Atlanta Braves 3
Baltimore Orioles 3
Boston Red Sox 6
Chicago Cubs 3
Chicago White Sox 2
Cincinnati Reds 3
Cleveland Indians 1
Colorado Rockies 5
Detroit Tigers 2
Houston Astros 3
Kansas City Royals 5
Los Angeles Angels 4
Los Angeles Dodgers 3
Miami Marlins 1
Milwaukee Brewers 4
Minnesota Twins 3
New York Mets 4
New York Yankees 4
Oakland Athletics 7
Philadelphia Phillies 2
Pittsburgh Pirates 5
San Diego Padres 9
San Francisco Giants 2
Seattle Mariners 5
St. Louis Cardinals 8
Tampa Bay Rays 5
Texas Rangers 5
Toronto Blue Jays 8
Washington Nationals 2
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
by mysterui on Feb 24, 2012 12:31 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Count by position
Sorry about the formatting. Pivot Tables are not kind
1B 4
2B 2
2B-OF 1
3B 11
C 7
INF 2
LHP 14
OF 24
RHP 45
SS 10
Of all sad words of tongue or pen; the saddest are these: 'It might have been!' -- Whittier
Twitter
by mysterui on Feb 24, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Thanks for the work!
I put that position count in a baseball order rather than alphabetical, and reformatted slightly:
RHP 45
LHP 14
C 7
1B 4
2B 2
2B-OF 1
3B 11
SS 10
INF 2
OF 24
by abbreviatedman on Feb 24, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Adams vs. Other 1B Prospects
John, could you explain why you see such a big gap between Matt Adams and other 1B prospects such Rizzo and Singleton.
Adams is a major league ready with both the bat and the glove. Scouts like his swing, and he projects to hit somewhere between .270 and .290 with between 20 – 30 HRs.
Obviously, there is a real chance he could fail, but as far as prospects go, he seems like a relatively safe bet for .270, 20 HRs, with upside for much more.
Rizzo’s swing issues and Singletong’s youth make them FAR more likely to bust.
I don’t see how Rizzo and Singleton’s increased upside makes up for their much lower floors. Sure, at best, Rizzo could go .280 and 40 HR, and Singleton could put up .300, 35 HR, but the odds of that are low, and those lines aren’t so much better than Adams’ upside of .290, 30 HR.
Where does the 60+ spot difference in the rankings come from?
For what it’s worth, I’d move Rizzo and Singleton down to the 90-120 range myself rather than moving Adams up. But either way, I’d be interested to hear your explanation of the gap between them on your list.
I think you're underestimating the differences in their projections.
But more importantly, a .270/20 1B is average or below average. Being a more likely guy to be Lyle Overbay is just not that valuable compared to a guy who’s only slightly less likely to reach Overbay Level and considerably more likely to be an actual star.
That said, I’m a lot less high on Singleton’s chances than some.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree
It’s been six years since Lyle Overbay hit .270 with 20 Hrs and he only did it once. Plus, the run environment was far different when he was in his prime. Lyle Overbay last played a full season in 2010 and hit . . . .243.
Last year, Gaby Sanchez hit .266/.352/.427, with 19 HRs and defense a bit above neutral. He was worth 3.0 fWAR. That’s an extremely valuable player.
Matt Adams is ready, this season, to take on a full time major league role, with a realistic chance of putting up 3.0 WAR. And, he’s got a ceiling significantly above that.
I don’t see how Singleton and Rizzo are worth a lot more than that. Certainly, you don’t think my upside projections for those guys are too low. Those are All-Star lines.
So maybe you think my projection for Adams’s ceiling is too high? But I’ve got my information from John’s write up and BA’s write up, so if you don’t think Adams is a possible .270 – .290, 20 – 30 HR guy, take it up with John.
I’m interested to hear from John what he thinks the difference is between those guys, because based on his write-ups, I don’t see it.
3 fWAR is not "extremely valuable"
2 fWAR is an average player. 4-5 fWAR is an all-star player. So 3 fWAR, during cost controlled years is valuable, but not extremely.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 24, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i sorta disagree with this
3 fWAR for three years of cost control is extremely valuable
that’s $36-45 million worth of surplus value, and that’s not even including additional surplus value you can get during the Arb years
for an interesting thought experiment…look at how much Gio Gonzalez got on the trade market. do you think Gio is worth +$50 million in surplus value?
by blue bulldog on Feb 24, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
I think we’re all on the same page about the value of 3.0 fWAR. 3.0 fWar is not an all-star, but it’s a well above-average major leaguer. As bulldog points out, it is a ton of surplus value from a prospect — $36 – 45 million.
For comparison’s sake, observe that a 75-100 ranked position prospect offers just $12.5 million in surplus value on average. While a top 10 position propsect averages $36.5 million in value. Citation: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/royals-farm-system-best-of-the-decade/
That means that .270 AVG, 20 HR, with defense a tick above average, is as valuable as a top 10 position player prospect. In terms of prospects, 3.0 fWAR per year is really a great outcome.
Abreviatedman seemed to be arguing that a Gabby-Sanchez-type 1B doesn’t provide any value because there are lots of .270 AVG, 20 HR, neutral fielding 1B guys available to teams.
That’s just wrong. That kind of player, in the current offensive environment, is worth about 3.0 fWAR. And 3.0 fWAR is hard to find, especially for the major league minimum.
In the end, though, I just want to know what makes Singlten and Rizzo so much better than Adams. I’m not saying it’s not possible, just that:
(1) I don’t understand why they would be so much more valuable, and
(2) It’s not because .270 AVG, 20 HRs is easy to find.
i do want to add a couple of points
1) even if you think the historical numbers are wrong, adjusting upwards by 100% for projected prospect surplus values would still lead to the conclusion that $36-45 million in surplus is a lot of value
2) i have no idea what the probability of Matt Adams actually hitting .270 with 20 HR is
by blue bulldog on Feb 24, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know much about the other two guys, but
Adams isn’t a patient hitter and it’s very hard to be a great bat with a swing first approach, even if you have good contact skills: see Jeff Francouer. Adams was in a great hitters park last season, too, so there is good reason to think that he won’t show that level of power at the MLB level.
Unlike a player with a good defensive skill set (i.e., just about anything besides 1B of corner OF) you really have to be a great hitter to be a very valuable player. There are tons of AAAA guys who can give you .260/.330/.420 and play first base. You have to be a lot better than that to a very valuable 1B. The average 1B in 2011 was .271/.345/.452. I don’t really see Adams hitting above that level, which means he’s an average player at best.
Martin Perez
seems like he’s falling like a rock in prospect circles. 83 is a long way from where he was at the beginning of last year. TINSTAAPP syndrome, perhaps?
But he’s still quite young and his stuff is still too good for him to be that mediocre.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 24, 2012 12:36 PM EST reply actions
John's analysis
Always seems to be a nice mix of upgrades for guys that continue to show plus tools, but also proper downgrades for guys that show that they’re having trouble realizing those tools (Perez, Monty). I like the love for some guys that show great stats despite the lack of “plus stuff.” Sometimes a guy’s just got something.
Nice work!
Honestly, best list I've seen thus far
At least, the one I agree with the most!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Thanks
Do you post the Top 50 pitchers and hitters or is that only in the book?
I've been wondering with Vinny Catricala, how close he was to making a top 100. Not that he "Deserves" most top 100 status, but wondering how close.
With a Top 120 and then not on the “Others” list either, now I really see that he’s a ways off.
follow @casetines
Vinnie the Cat
If this were a list for purely fantasy baseball use, I think Catricala would be sniffing the top 50.
4 Mets in the top 100, I like that
I haven’t seen a lot of people with Nimmo in their top 100, and that’s exciting to me. I didn’t realize how robust the Cardinal organization was, but there’s a lot of talent there.
R.I.P. "Kid", Gary Edmund Carter (1954-2012)
Keith = HoF
-Mets Baseball || Knicks Basketball-
this is very premature...
but do you think that the Nimmo/Trout comparisons hold any weight?
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Feb 24, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
first I've heard of the comp
But I sure fkn hope so.
i hadn't thought of that one but there are some similarities...cold weather HS background, tools, athleticism, no one is quite sure what to expect, etc.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Aww man
that’s been my comp for Nimmo for a while (on the aspects you pointed out). Should trademarked that.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 25, 2012 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
Nimmo
is nowhere the same caliber runner and seems projected for an OF corner. Trout may be pushed to a corner by Bourjos, but he’s clearly capable of playing CF at the major league level. Different body types also, as Trout is more compact and Nimmo longer and leaner. And Nimmo is going to have to move awfully fast to match Trout’s timetable. It’s sort of a surprising comp, actually…
by charles wallace on Feb 25, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
I just meant
in the “cold weather HS background, tools, athleticism, no one is quite sure what to expect, etc.” areas.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 25, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Well,
since two of the items on that list, tools and athleticism, aren’t necessarily comparable… ;)
by charles wallace on Feb 26, 2012 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Question:
Why is Alonso considerably higher than Singleton? Singleton essentially already has Alonso’s skillset (draws walks, hits for average, very good approach at the plate), but at a much younger age.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
James Paxton
John, you’ve got Paxton significantly higher than others. I don’t think he made the top 50 in any other list. What do you think is the difference in your perspective?
paxton
I’m not sure really…I look at Paxton and I see a guy with plus stuff from the left side, improved command, and great metrics. Seems like a top prospect to me.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
He was 59 for Goldstein and 52 for BA, so it's not a huge stretch.
I think if the Jays had signed Paxton as a 1st rounder, he would put up same numbers and be a top 40 guy universally. Losing that year of minors seems to have created doubters. He’s a solid #2.
follow @casetines
by Kenneth Arthur on Feb 24, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, hadn't looked closely
All I knew is that he wasn’t in the top 50 for MLB, BA, Goldstein, or Law. But he’s in the 50s for all except MLB.
Prospects who missed
How close were Jorge Alfaro and Ravel Santana? I can see we need more data, but we also have even less on Swihart and Nimmo.
by rlwhite on Feb 24, 2012 1:42 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Alfaro wasn’t close. I know he’s got drooly tools, but I can’t rate someone with a 9/102 BB/K ratio in 332 career at-bats as a top prospect.
Santana is a better bet. He would be somewhere in the 130s I think with a chance for a lot more to come.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Sort of surprised that you had Lance Lynn on here at all
I know he started out in the minors last season, and was out for 2 months after his call-up because of his oblique injury, but it seems like he’s solidly in the Cards’ bullpen after his time there during August and the post-season. I guess it just seems to me like he’s already arrived, rather than being a prospect…
"I actually used about nine pitches--two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, a changeup, knockdown, brushback, and hit-batsman" - Bob Gibson
Sign Mark Prior!
by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Feb 24, 2012 1:44 PM EST reply actions
Liam Hendriks
He was one of the younger pitchers in the EL. Has an strong krate and an incredible k/bb. His minor league fip was pretty good, too, if you like that. He had a cup of coffee in the majors. I know he doesn’t have ace stuff but it looks like he has a pretty solid floor and is close to ready now. Twins pitchers like Blackburn, Perkins and Slowey all were ranked at one time or other but Hendriks seems to be flying under the radar a bit.
Jenrry Mejia
Hey John, I know Mejia was been injured last year and recovering from TJS, but assuming he does come back healthy and is ready to contribute at AAA by May, approximately where do you think he would be on this list. I have to believe he would be considered somewhere in the middle of the pack based on your list of Top 120, but I’d like to get your opinion on Mejia.
thanks John
He just started throwing this week and is slated to be ready for May, but just being realisitc with the Mets training staff, that probably means May 2013. It would be nice to have 5 prospects in the Top 100 for the Mets, and probably more if they move Wright this year and considering they have 4 picks in the Top 69 of this years First year player Draft, we can really try to stock the farm system. Just trying to stay positive in this dark, dark period of being a Mets fan.
Wow great
to see Xander Bogaerts ahead of Sano and Cuthbert. Can you go a little bit into this decision?
XandyMan Coming for you!!!!1
Leonys Martin
Anyone you can think of that would be a decent comp? I know we really need to see more from him but I’m still curious.
by HeLeftYouBagEnd on Feb 24, 2012 2:00 PM EST reply actions
Bourn
I’d say Michael Bourn with 60 speed instead of 80.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
Martin has more power then Bourn
by RangerMad on Feb 24, 2012 8:56 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah I don't like the Bourn comparison
I’d probably say Coco Crisp.
Jorge Soler
Just curious, about where would Soler fit on the list, if he were eligible?
soler
I have no idea. I don’t think I would rank him until we get to see him play. Reports are positive, but quite vague at this point.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
Anthony Rendon
John, as ever thanks for the list and your thoughts. I liked you placement of Rendon especially. Out of curiosity, how much of your placement was due to the major injuries/surgeries? And i wonder if the quasi-failure of other college stars with similar stats :(Smoak, LaPorta, Gordon for several years) factor into your analysis at all?
I also agreed with the placement of Rendon.
I’m not sure what John’s reasoning was but I have him in that same range (and behind Arenado) is that I simply don’t believe in his power. I see him as a 15-20 HR guy rather than 25-30 as many seem to think. The big dropoff in power with the switch to the BBCOR bats shouldn’t be underestimated imo.
rendon
well…20 is still pretty dang high!
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Nicolino vs Norris
You’ve got both ranked closely. Since Nicolino is further away is it a good assumption that you see his ceiling being higher than Norris?
by highheat on Feb 24, 2012 2:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Nicolino's also closer to the bigs
if that makes any difference at that level
well
Well there is sort of a confidence interval thing going on here since we have pro data for Nicolino and don’t for Norris yet. Norris has more physical upside but we need to see how it plays.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
Lawrie and Alvarez
I will echo the sentiment, great list John and thank you! I was wondering where Brett Lawrie and Henderson Alvarez might have slotted in the list (approx) if they hadn’t used up their eligibility last season. 8 Jays in your top 80 has a lot of Jays fans excited looking towards to the next couple of seasons.
Lawrie
If Lawrie was still a prospect, I would rank him #3. Ahead of Trout.
That is how much I love Lawrie.
Alvarez….80-100 somewhere.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
wow
ahead of Trout
curious what do others think about that?
by blue bulldog on Feb 24, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
i'd put him at 2 or 3 behind harper for sure and possibly moore....
he’s a monster
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 24, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
so would I
and I’m an Angels fan
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Feb 25, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, i'm still a bitter Twins fan ALL i wanted on 2008 draft day was Brett Lawrie
Jemile Weeks, Brett Wallace……Aaron Hicks……..sigh
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 24, 2012 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
Lawrie
Lawrie’s ceiling: Ryan Braun with an above-average glove at third base.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
so are you projecting him to have
a PED controversy at the ages of 27/28?
too soon :P
by blue bulldog on Feb 24, 2012 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Brett Lawrie's on PEDs
he’s taking a substance called Brett Lawrie
by benk on Feb 25, 2012 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree!
You are not alone in separating the hitters and pitchers!
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I like the list
Thanks for the hard work!
I gotta wonder if you were maybe slightly hoping that everyone would hate it and you’d never have to do it again… sorta in the same way that a husband might rifle through a wife’s purse when she gives it to him at the mall to avoid having to do it again
For the record, I agree with your stance
Hitters and pitchers are apples and oranges in my eyes…
Great List
Loved the book for years and really like the combined list.
What do you think of the Gary Sheffield comp Javier Baez has been getting?
XandyMan Coming for you!!!!1
Baez
Well it is certainly interesting given that Sheffield had one of the fastest bats I’ve ever seen. Let’s get more data from Baez before going that far, but iin terms of sheer upside, it is fairly plausable i would say.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
Spangenberg and Kelly so low
I figured Kelly would be low, but not that low. And Span has been in everyone’s top 100.
A little dissapointed there was no mention of Hedges or Joe Ross.
GO Friars
by mrbarneydangles on Feb 24, 2012 3:19 PM EST reply actions
padres
I have enough questions about Hedges’ bat to keep him off. I did consider Ross and should have put him in the “others considered” section.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the reply
Why so “down” on Spangenberg? Do you think .300 and 30 SBs is out of the question? Also, how quickly do you think he’ll move through the system?
GO Friars
by mrbarneydangles on Feb 24, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
spang
Well I don’t consider myself down really on Spangenberg. But I guess I have enough questions about his power that I don’t rank him quite as highly as some other people do
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
Awesome. Thanks for this.
Hedges bat in question, but certainly not defense…. and Ross’s overall potential.
I know Keith Law in a very recent chat said he thinks he forsees , " Ross maturing into an ace."
But that seems to be over optimistic to me.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 24, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Most of the chatter I hear about Ross is top of the rotation potential, although not a bonefide No. 1 starter. What Klaw said doesn’t seem to out of line I suppose.
In that same chat however he alluded to Austin Hedges potentially developing in Buster Posey, but with more power. Now that seems optimistic to me.
by polyrhythm07 on Feb 24, 2012 4:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Couple more "just missed"
Where would you rank:
- Juan Nicasio? (And where would he be if there were no lingering questions from his 2011 injury?)
- Alex Cobb?
That's what I meant
Sorry I wasn’t clear — I meant they just missed being eligible for the list…
Awesome great list.
I was mildly suprised to see Cespedes so high.
personally i’m thinking like something in the 60’s range for Cespedes, 70’s/ 80’s range for Leonys Martin and maybe top 50 for Jorge Solar.
Lots of interesting placements and good discussions due ahead.
This is very good
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 24, 2012 3:34 PM EST reply actions
actually i take The Leonys Martin part back
I see John has him at 115, and i can really apreciate this, i may not be 100% behind it but i too, him renduring him lower and lower I have no problem with it. I was actually pleasantly suprised to see him that far down.
Yes.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 24, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
why would you have soler so much higher
when nobody but mlb teams know really anything about him or cespedes and major league teams are by all accounts valuing cespedes at about $10 million more
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Feb 24, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
ARL
Cespedes is soo talked about to the point he’s overrated at 26 going on 27 he has to be good IMMEDIATELY
Solar has a few years to figure things out.
I’ve never had Cespedes near the top 50 overall, i was hesitant to stick him imediately in the top 100.
Maybe Solar isn’t any more deserving but if i could have 1 guy for my org. it’d be Solar easily
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 25, 2012 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
so.....
i’m guessing you don’t believe in markets?
can you explain why teams are willing to overpay for Cespedes, and not for Soler?
by blue bulldog on Feb 25, 2012 2:43 AM EST up reply actions
because. . .
Soler is not a free agent yet.
by Caesar Tovar on Feb 25, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
i'm totally confused
what do you mean?
is he not available to all teams? is MLB enforcing a price ceiling on signing Soler? or is MLB taxing teams for signing Soler?
i don’t follow the international signings that closely, but can someone explain to me why Soler’s market isn’t free?
by blue bulldog on Feb 25, 2012 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
It's only a technicality at this point.
He’s not a FA yet because he’s still a Cuban citizen. That is being rectified, he’ll be a FA soon.
by philadelphiacub on Feb 25, 2012 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
Before a Cuban player can be a free agent
He has to establish residency in another country (Cespedes did so in the DR) and then be unblocked by your Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)
Not proud of Peacock?
I understand his peripherals were a little off, especially the 24 walks in 48 IP in AAA and 6 more in 12 major league innings, but if you’re giving a bonus to guys who are close to the majors, why so low (84)? Also going to Oakland should help his stats, no? Plus 177 K in 147 minor league innings, not so shabby!
Compare him to some of the pitchers ahead of him: Manny Banuelos at #45 (71 walks in 129.2 IP between AA and AAA), Trevor May at #40 (65 walks in 144 IP in A+).
yeah, without doing any research on it, i'm going to make a quick guess and say Peacock or May
in terms of low end and high end might be John’s biggest differences for pitching placements relative to the rest of the industry.
I really like the May placement. Was a bit suprised to see Peacock as low as he is.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 24, 2012 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
wilin rosario
surprised to see he wasn’t even among those considered…
having said that, even as a Rockies fan, I have to admit I’m having doubts that he’ll be able to hit.
Mike Montgomery
101 is far and away the lowest I’ve seen him ranked. John, you’ve been mostly a fan of his for the past couple of years, did last year’s struggles really sour you on him that much? and why? Do you not see something now that you saw before?
Montgomery
I have seen Montgomery in several different venues and enviornmnets over the last couple of years.
He never looks like the same guy. Delivery, stuff, command….all vary from appearance to appearance. And the numbers last year certainly wern’t that great, even accounting for the PCL.
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting
BA still has him as the Royals’ top prospect, but I figured you had probably seen him live several times so now I’m not sure what to think of him. Last year certainly wasn’t confidence-inspiring, but I’m hoping the stuff translates to success with a bit more consistency.
Montgomery
Hell I can’t even figure out what breaking pitch he’s trying to throw half the time. it’s supposed to be a curve but at times it just looks like a very flat slider
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I just checked that. I’m sure he’ll get a decent look at the MLB level this year, so we’ll see…
Where would Nicasio rank?
I know Nicasio is over the innings limit, but where would have ranked? I noticed that his fastball averaged 94.1 MPH in the majors so I am very curious as to his upside.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 24, 2012 4:55 PM EST reply actions
I like the list
A bit surprised you have Wily Peralta so low though, but like the fact that you kept Jungman and Bradley out of the top 100 until they start to put up some numbers.
No Matt Sczur?
Including Darvish/Cespedes as well as merging the two lists?!?!
John Sickels comp – James Brown!
Meanwhile, Domonic Brown is indeed developing slowly. Where would you rank him if he qualified? Mucho gracias.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. -John Kenneth Galbraith, economist (1908-2006)
brown
He’d be in the 20-30 range I think. I still like him a lot
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
I think the concerns for him are way overblown. Dude broke his hamate and it can take a while to get back into the swing of things, but it isn’t normally a long term concern.
by CaptainCanuck on Feb 24, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
John pointed out in last year's book that Brown would require patience
Philly FO is not denying that Brown could be in AAA all year so John placing him between Rendon and Bogaerts is very high praise.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. -John Kenneth Galbraith, economist (1908-2006)
Nestor Molina
Curious about his ranking as he was previously ranked as the Jays top prospect and now would be ranked as the Jays 8th best prospect.
molina
Well he’s a White Sox now. Isn’t he fifth if stiill a Jay?
I think Molina is underrated and that his stuff is better than people say. It is more a case of my opinion about a few other guys shifting upward slightly than any loss of confidence in Molina
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
Hutchison
I was hoping to see Hutch higher. John is a big fan but 73 seems a little low. Am I crazy for thinking he’s a better commodity than Odorizzi?
Banuelos and Barnes
John, you gave Barnes a better grade than Banuelos, but Banuelos is at 45 and Barnes is at 74, what’s up with that?
I already said that it is inconsistent with some grades
and that I’m going to have to revive the grades before opening day.
Grades are always a moving target. In this case, I think Barnes is more probably a B than Banuelos moving up to B+, but we’ll see
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
If Giolito is drafted today.....
….where is he on this list?
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 24, 2012 8:41 PM EST reply actions
hmmm
Hmm…..I haven’t thought that far ahead. Top 50 most likely but where exactly? I dunno yet
by John Sickels on Feb 24, 2012 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Feb 24, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
I've learned.....
not to get upset about lists and where this guy ranks vs that guy.
That being said….and factoring the fact that I am a Yanks fan, I really think people are sleeping on Banuelos and to a lesser extent Betances.
In the case of Bans, even though it’s only 5 spots, how does Trevor May rank at #40 vs Bans at #45?
I mean the knock, and really the only knock, against Bans was the sudden control issues he faced in 2011. However, let’s compare Bans vs May,
Bans vs May
lefty vs righty
20 for 2011 season vs 21
debuted @ AAA vs spent 2010 and 2011 @ A+
4.01 FIP @ AA/3.90 FIP @ AAA vs 2.69 FIP @ A+
4.9 BB/9 in 2011 vs 4 BB/9 in 2011 and 7.8 BB/9 in 2010
The obvious + for May is that he’s more of a dominant K machine than Bans (12 K/9 vs 8.5 K/9) but is that enough to rank him higher? I mean Betances is just as much of a K/9 machine as May (he’s maintained a K rate higher than 10 per 9 at every level).
What do you see in May to rank him higher? Not b*tchin, just wondering. Thanks.
May's BB rate @ A+
…his highest level thus far.
2010 in 70 IP @ A+ 7.84 BB/9
2011 in 144 IP @ A+ 4.05 BB/9
Bets in 2010 in 71 IP @ A+ was 2.41 BB/9 w/ a 1.94 FIP
Bets in 2011 in 105 IP @ AA (higher level) was 4.70 BB/9 w/ a 3.70 FIP
Bans in 2010 @ A+ (injury shortened season w/ blisters and appendectomy): 44 IP w/ a 2.84 BB/9 and a 1.71 FIP.
Bans in 2011 @ AA in 95 IP: 4.9 BB/9 w/ a 4.01 FIP @ AAA in 34 IP: 4.9 BB/9 w/ a 3.90 FIP
In no means am I saying that either Bans or Bets had great numbers in 2011 but it seems there’s a lot more rope being given to Mays who has spent the last two years at A+ with a BB/9 that averages out to 5.2 BB/9 for both 2010 and 2011. He K’s a lot but so does Bets (10+/9 at every level incl AAA) and Bans isn’t a slouch for a 20 year old lefty at AA/AAA last year (just under 9/9)
by YnksFnSnc78 on Feb 24, 2012 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
YnksFnSnc78=Nixa for yanks prospects
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Feb 25, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
I must have missed the part where he commented on all the Yankees rankings
And specifically said that some of them were higher than he thought they should have been. But yeah, I must just be a homer. Feel free to check out my track record when it comes to Braves prospects I’ve taken a strong stand on…
I apologize
It was a tongue-in-cheek about the Braun situation. I agree with you; you do well to avoid homerism.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 25, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
I guess my bad then
Now, let’s back back to the discussion at hand
just a word of advice
but i really feel like sometimes you take things way too seriously when people talk about Teheran/Simmons
by blue bulldog on Feb 25, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
That had nothing to do with my response
I take offense when people accuse me of being a homer. I don’t care whether or not they agree with me on how good someone is. I may care some if they present inaccurate information, but that’s the extent of it.
Nestor Molina
What made you lower his value significantly last two months or so? He was higher than d’Aranaud and other toolsy guys (Marisnick, Gose..) and regarded as future #1 starter. Do you still think Molina has TOR ceiling?
by Patrick Relano Kim on Feb 24, 2012 9:56 PM EST reply actions
I don’t recall seeing anybody project Molina as a potential #1 starter with either the Jays or White Sox. Everything I’ve read says his ceiling is a #3/4 starter or a good bullpen arm.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 25, 2012 9:49 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think part way through the season some analysts overreacted to Molinas great numbers
but when they check back on the scouting reports they probably pulled back on their ranking of him. That’s my guess.
Shocked to see Cosart that low
I know some think he’s might be headed towards being a reliever, but nobody with that kind of stuff should be at #108.
Check out The Dream Shake.
by Patrick Harrel on Feb 24, 2012 10:25 PM EST reply actions
Agreed.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 25, 2012 9:47 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree with this
But I wasn’t surprised after what John said about Cosart in his Astros top 20. I understand his points and I definitely have some Astros homerism, but I would probably rank Cosart at 76, right ahead of Simmons. He’s still so young that he has plenty of time to refine his stuff, and I still see him as a starter for the foreseeable future.
Pirates' Heredia
I am wondering why the Bucco’s Heredia didn’t get any consideration for the top 100. Is it his youth? His performance? Lack of performance so far?
sounds like uncertainty
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 24, 2012 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Soler
I’m curious if you left Soler off the list because you don’t think he is good enough or because of his fuzzy interenational status?
Not even considering Grant Green?
Didn’t think his slight power decrease at AA meant that much. Also while changing from SS to anything else is indeed a downgrade in value, CF is the one thats probably the least downgrade. If Green can his 15 HR and .280 that makes him very valuable and I think he gets there, first round picks shouldn’t fall off lists from a non-perfect AA year, its the hardest minor league to hit. Apparently he has redone his stance and approach and was hitting bombs in winterball.
A’s fans shouldn’t get too used to Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Seth Smith or Jonny Gomes, if Green hits, he’s going straight to LF and Crisp will be traded if Cespedes is anything close to advertised, Green-Cespedes-Reddick with Reddick showing what 500 PA’s from him looks like, and then traded when Choice is ready. The plan is definitely looking like Green-Cespedes-Choice as the OF by 2013.
We're having an ongoing discussion about Green over on Athletics Nation
I’m in the pessimistic camp. Basically: Green has always had terrible BB/K ratios (38/117 in A+, 39/119 in AA); Stockton inflates everyone’s power numbers, so you have to take his 20 HR season with a grain of salt; he’s not all that young (24 heading into the 2012 season); he was unable to clean up his SS play, necessitating a move to CF which he might not end up being able to play at a major-league level.
.280 with 15 HRs wouldn’t be very valuable unless he learns to walk more than 3 times every 2 weeks (which so far he’s been unable to figure out against A and AA pitchers), and/or he becomes a good CF, which at this point is a completely speculative outcome. Right now he’s a 24-year-old without a position, who’s played a single season a AA, who gets K’d constantly by pitchers who are nowhere near major-league quality, while drawing few walks and showing HR power only in an incredibly hitter-friendly environment. The main thing in his favor is that everyone’s always said he’d be good, and scouts say he has quick hands and looks like an athlete.
It’s possible a wrist injury messed with his power last season. That’s a reason for hope. But he didn’t really hit that great in Arizona last fall – his numbers were nothing special for a launching pad league — 20th in OPS out of 64 qualifying players, and again with lousy BB/K numbers (8 BBs, 26 Ks).
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Well he was considered a top 50-75 guy last year and now isnt even being considered.
That was my original question.
and maybe he was moved from SS because the A’s (at the time) were lacking any kind of OF depth, now they don’t have that issue, perhaps another position change back to SS or 3B would benefit everyone the most. His walk rate doesn’t have to be that great if he’s going to hit for average (which is not A’s-style, except when they get O-Cab).
But he’s a 1st rounder, the A’s generally give their 1st round picks every chance at a spot on the big league roster. I think Green is going to be another Pennington-type, pretty good for what he is, a fine guy to hit low in the order and be a nice piece to the Cespedes of the team. Personally I think he ends up a David Murphy-type LF.
by Waiver Claim on Feb 27, 2012 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
He got moved off SS because he was terrible there
I know errors are a stat with pretty limited value, but Green committed 37 errors in 114 games in A+ ball, then another 21 errors in 79 games at AA before the A’s moved him to the outfield. And that was with bad to mediocre range numbers, as well.
People had doubts about his footwork and throwing even before he was drafted, and he never managed to improve in either area.
I think you’re absolutely right about CF looking like a bit of a void for the A’s last summer. Clearly things are different now, and the biggest hole in the system is now probably 3B (especially if Sizemore’s MRI today reveals a serious injury). So maybe they could move him there, or to 2B, but I don’t really know why his footwork and throwing problems would improve elsewhere in the IF. Maybe 2B would be better, though again if you have crappy footwork at 2B you’ve got a major problem.
As to his hitting…the problem is his contact rate. David Murphy strikes out about 60% as often, in the majors, as Green has in A+ and AA. And even David Murphy, whom no one is going to confuse for Kevin Youkilis, walks more than Green has. Basically, Green is riding his reputation and scouts saying that he looks like he has good hands and is a great athlete. But for a guy with great hands and quick wrists, he sure seems to have trouble making contact with the guys who pitch in A+ and AA. And however great his raw athletic abilities are, he didn’t manage to harness and develop them into becoming even a passable professional SS.
A year ago people still held out hope that he’d be able to stick at SS. He’d just hit 20 HRs in A+ (in the Cal League, but still), and people thought maybe he’d spend 2011 building on that: eliminate some of the errors, improve his contact abilities, start drawing more BBs. Then you’d have a solid hitter at SS who would maybe be league average or a little below with the glove. That sounds good. Now, however, you’ve got a guy with no defensive position, who still strikes out once a game and still doesn’t take many walks, and who went backwards in his power numbers. And he’s 24 and still at AA. That merits a reevaluation in my book.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Cool to see Nimmo so high
I bet he will be climbing this list in the coming years.
"Now pitching... number 33..... John Maine!"
by talkin'Metsies on Feb 25, 2012 11:22 AM EST reply actions
Arenado
Love seeing him this high. On other lists I’ve seen him as low as being in the 40’s. I really hope you’re right about him.
Quick question, how close was Tom Milone? I’m just really excited to see him in action since he is so different with his non-power approach.
by Chicago's Cardinal 3 on Feb 25, 2012 8:31 PM EST reply actions
Please answer this question
If we could go back in time and shave off the last week or so of Brett Lawrie’s season and have him still qualify as a prospect, where would he rank on your list? I’m very very curious and I’ve been waiting to ask since you first released your Jays top 20 list this year.
arenado at 13 seems a bit high
considering his average ranking (before this list) has been 25, though project prospect had him at 12. do you really think he’s that close to MLB-ready?
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
arenado
I don’t think he is a product of the California League, let’s put it that way.
by John Sickels on Feb 27, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Hi John
thanks for the work you put into is, I’ve really enjoyed reading it. Out of curiosity, where would Dayan Viciedo slot in here(if at all) if here were still eligible? Thanks!
It is known
Very quietly
Think hes a .280 30 hr type…
I think the strike zone judgement growth sport he showed last year is very much real. Hes user the radar too imo…
Thanks John for the List
I was quite happy to see you give Alex Torres some love, while he has some command issues he has very very good stuff and showed very well at the MLB level last season. He would be opening 2012 in most ML Rotations and could prove to be a very valuable reliever for the Rays or trade bait.
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