Prospect Smackdown: Anthony Gose vs. Starling Marte
by John Sickels on Feb 22, 2012 8:00 AM EST
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Print![Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Gose (left) and Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte (right). (Photos by Mark Cunningham [Gose] and Jeff Gross [Marte], Courtesy of Getty Images)](http://cdn3.sbnation.com/entry_photo_images/3127305/markcunninghamjeffgross_large.jpg)
Prospect Smackdown: Anthony Gose vs Starling Marte
If you like athletic outfielders, you've come to the right place. Today's Prospect Smackdown focuses on a pair of uber-athletes, outfielder Anthony Gose of the Toronto Blue Jays and outfielder Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Let's get right to it.
BACKGROUND:
Gose: Anthony Gose was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the second round in 2008, from high school in Bellflower, California. Signed for a $772,000 bonus, Gose was considered a top prospect as a pitcher by many scouts, but he preferred to play every day and the Phillies obliged. The Phillies traded Gose to the Toronto Blue Jays (via Houston and a swap for Brett Wallace) in the 2010 Roy Oswalt deal and he has been one of their top prospects ever since. He plays with enthusiasm and works hard.
Marte: Marte was signed by the Pittsburgh Pirates from the Dominican Republic in 2007, signing for $85,000. He wasn't one of the elite talents on the international market that year, but the Pirates liked his tools and so far he looks like a real bargain. He plays with enthusiasm and has worked hard to remedy his deficiencies.
Advantage: Gose had a higher profile as an amateur, but Marte has come a long way in a short time and has more than justified Pittsburgh's judicious investment. Both players have good makeup, and I see no firm advantage either way here.
PHYSICALITY, TOOLS, AND HEALTH:
Gose: Gose is a 6-1, 190 pound left-handed hitter and thrower, born August 10, 1990. A tremendous athlete, Gose is blazing fast (at least 70 on the 20/80 scouting scale), has an excellent throwing arm, is a terrific center fielder, and has the wiry strength to hit for at least average power. His swing is still a work in progress and he strikes out too much for comfort, but he began to show a better batting eye last year. He also dramatically improved his baserunning. He has had no major injury problems as a professional position player, but a sore shoulder was an issue while pitching in high school.
Marte: Marte is a 6-2, 185 pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born October 9, 1988. Marte is an excellent athlete with superior speed, 65-70 on the 20/80 scale. He has a strong throwing arm and has great instincts in the outfield, making him a plus/plus defender in center. Marte has made progress refining his swing and driving the ball for more power, but he remains impatient and seldom draws walks. He's an aggressive runner but still learning how to use his speed properly. He missed part of 2010 with a broken hamate, but was healthy in '11 and showed no ill effects from the injury.
Advantage: Both of these guys have excellent tools, particularly strong in the speed and throwing departments. Both are terrific defensive outfielders. Both have wiry-but-strong builds that produce some power, but both of them also have rough approaches at the plate. Gose draws more walks at this point and works counts better, but he also swings-and-misses a lot more often than Marte. Gose is more effective at using his speed on the bases and is one-and-a-half years younger, so I think he merits a slight edge here.
PERFORMANCE
Gose: Gose hit .253/.349/.415 last year for Double-A New Hampshire in the Eastern League, with 20 doubles, seven triples, 16 homers, 62 walks, and 154 strikeouts in 509 at-bats. He swiped 70 bases while being caught just 15 times. He is a career .258/.334/.386 hitter, generally hitting in the .250-.260 range but improving his walk rate and showing more power each year. On the negative side, the strikeout rate remains very high, well more than once-per-game, which is a big red flag.
Marte: Marte hit .332/.370/.500 last year for Double-A Altoona in the Eastern League, with 38 doubles, eight triples, 12 homers, 22 walks, and 100 strikeouts in 536 at-bats. He swiped 24 bases but was caught 12 times. A career .309/.366/.453 hitter, he's maintained very high BABIP at each level while showing more Isolated Power last year. His walk rate is very low and his BB/K/PA ratio is unattractive, although his K-rate did drop a little last year. It remains to be seen if he can hit for that kind of average in the majors without a more mature approach.
Advantage: They both have flaws. Gose draws twice as many walks, but his strikeout rate is almost 50% higher than Marte's. From watching them play, I think Marte's swing and overall approach is more consistent than Gose's at this point, and right now Marte has the edge in performance.
PROJECTION
Gose: Nobody thinks Gose is going to win batting titles, but in an ideal world he can develop into a .250-.270 hitter with a decent OBP, 15 homers a year, 50+ steals a year, and stellar defense in center field.
Marte: If Marte can cut back on the strikeouts somewhat, ideally he can hit .280-.300 in the majors with 15 homers a year, 20-30 steals, and stellar defense in center field.
Advantage: Take your pick. Both players should produce moderate power. I can see their peak OBPs being quite similar, but each player getting there in a different way, with Marte more of a batting average guy and Gose needing to keep his walk up. Gose will likely be a bigger threat on the bases. Gose also has an advantage: he's a year and a half younger and that gives him a better spot on the age curve, although Marte isn't an old man by any means at age 23.
SUMMARY
I'd rate the intangibles as even, Gose a slight edge on tools, Marte an edge in current performance, and very close in projection with Gose's youth perhaps tipping him just a nose ahead. I have Gose as a Grade B+ in the 2012 Baseball Prospect Book, ranked 26th on the Top 50 hitters list, with Marte a very strong B (almost B+) and ranked 37th.
I struggled with Gose's grade. His tools really stand out and he's made a lot of progress refining them, but his strikeout rate is scary enough to make me cautious. As I work on my Top 100 list (which should be out Friday), I continue to weigh the issues and you can bet that these two players will be very close to each other on the list.
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Gose's Background
Gose came to the Blue Jays via the Astros in exchange for Brett Wallace in July 2010. The Phillies dealt Gose to Houston for Roy Oswalt, who then flipped him.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 22, 2012 8:06 AM EST via mobile reply actions
In effect he did come as part of the Halladay trade as they receieve Michael Taylor who they then turned into Wallace and then into Gose. Those trades look pretty good in hindsight.
At the time, Gose for Wallace looked like a win for Houston. Now, not so much.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 22, 2012 11:21 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Really?
I immediately thought it was a bad trade for the Astros. I chalked it up to a win for the Blue Jays.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 22, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
If I recall correctly, the early verdict on the trade was that the Astros “won” the trade. Many Jays fans were upset about the deal; Wallace was a highly regarded prospect viewed as ready to contribute in the majors, while Gose was not yet a top 100 prospect and at the time had problems stealing bases in addition to his strikeout problems. As an Astros fan, I certainly wasn’t opposed to parting with Gose for Wallace at the time.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 22, 2012 6:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think Jays fans were all that upset really
The Jays reportedly wanted to draft Wallace in 2008 (Cooper was the consolation prize 4 picks later) and pursued him, but once they got Wallace they reassessed his value and quickly flipped him.
The casual Jays fan wouldn’t have been too upset because Wallace was never a high profile prospect to begin with, nor was he a Jay long enough to form any sort of attachment to.
The more discerning Jays fan saw that Wallace had already been moved off 3B and his ceiling was now looking more like the current 1B, Lyle Overbay, who was quickly falling out of favour.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. -John Kenneth Galbraith, economist (1908-2006)
Most Jays fans hated the trade at first because we felt it was an overpayment who was years away and wasn’t hitting much and wallace was seen as Jays future 1st baseman. But we came around to the trade a few days later because Wallace didn’t have much power and couldn’t defend so it was seen as best case scenario being Lyle Overbay which was a disgusting thought in our minds.
Most people didn’t really know about Gose either at the time but then you heard about the types of tools he has and how young he is, you got excited for a potential star CF and at the time, we didn’t have one in the system or really on the roster (wells was getting old and lost his defense).
Then, Lind started to play 1st base towards the end of season and if he got back to his 09 season, we were pretty excited at that possibility and Wallace sucked in the bigs so it started looking like a great trade for us.
It definitely wasn’t something we liked at first but we warmed up to it after our heads cooled off.
Well, I liked it!
I was in the minority though, sure. As nixa opines below there were certainly trouble signs in his Las Vegas #s that were apparent before the trade. I knew Anthony Gose was practically a lottery ticket, but it was a worthwhile upside play to me as I had soured on Wallace quite a bit (maybe I just wouldn’t let Michael Taylor go, ha).
I liked it right away as well.
At the stage Wallace was at in his development those of us who followed prospects could see some of his plateau’s. We also knew the reason why the Astro’s were willing to trade Gose – a toolsy prospect who struck out too much – was because Houston had just traded away their 1B Berkman and needed a player – or a close-to-the-major’s prospect – to fill that role.
There were maybe some people who didn’t understand the trade and didn’t like it. If anything, most fans either liked it or were undecided at that point.
I think it looked like a win to people who wouldn't move on from draft scouting reports
Based on his performance in the PCL, I think it was pretty clear that Wallace would never be a starting 1B on a contending team.
John
ill take the guy with not much contact issues and above tools(just not Gose’stoolshed type). im with you on Gose’s K’s.
Gose and his strikeouts
This is a very good read
I was just about to ask about the lack of bunting and I’ve also heard that they wanted Gose to try and hit for power in all counts. Supposedly this year is about allowing Gose to Bunt, and actually develop a two-strike approach. Could make him a lot more interesting.
by Marc Henderson on Feb 22, 2012 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
I'm just going to post the usual disclaimer I post when I see this article
Sportsnet is owned by Rogers Communications, the same parent company as the Bue Jays…in fact they’re run out of the same operating division. So I’d take that with a grain of salt.
I see you're point re: Rogers, but..
Not sure exactly what specifically you’re doubting in the article.
The article is basically arguing that Gose’s high K numbers (massive red flag) are explained by a the constraints of an approach the Jays forced him into, and that this upcomiong season his Ks should decline. There’s nothing I can point to and say, this is false. But it’s easy to come up with explanations after the fact.
Rogers job is to sell the Blue Jays – market them to generate revenues, and Rogers are very good marketers. And this is what pieces are like this are meant to do – sell the future, get fans excited. Maybe I’m just too cynical, but when you have a confluence of incentives like this, I’d take the conclusions with a grain of salt. Let’s see what happens this season.
Also, and this is even more cynical, but I half wonder if it wasn;t an attempt to pump up his value, for whatever reason. But in late July or early August, AA was on one of the TV broadcasts abolsutely fawning over Nestor Molina, calling him practically untouchable, and 4 months later he was out the door for a closer (albeit a very good, cost controlled one, but a closer nonetheless). AA is not a linear thinker, and I imagine the Jays cooperation would be needed for such a feature.
I’d also point out that his K rate has always been high, so it doesn’t seem like it can be explained by a change they made in his approach. (I could be misreading the stats though.)
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by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 22, 2012 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
I was just about to write this
The contention that Gose’s crazy K numbers and low batting average would hold more water if his batting average in 2010 (before they “changed”) was only .255 so it only dropped by .002 and his K% was 25.7% so it only rose by half a percent.
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 22, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
*Whoops
I pulled the wrong numbers as I was only looking at his Toronto numbers from 2010.
Either way, I’ll take Marte. I don’t like guys striking out more than 150 times unless they are middle of the lineup bats. I’m also not sure that Gose’s OBP will hold up because I don’t know if the better pitchers will be afraid to give him something to hit until he proves that he can actually hit it. If his walk rate drops, then he doesn’t get on base and doesn’t have chances to steal.
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 22, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
so you believe we can take two different years
two different approaches, for a player whose game has markedly changed and patch the numbers together to get some semblence of what this has done for his career?
This appears similar to the talk after Bautista destroyed the ball in September of 2009. Everyone was quick to state it was just September AAA pitchers, or that Bautista was around a long time and thus it was a fluke. They even brought in fake scouting info – hey, he never was a big time prospect for power.
Gose still has some holes in his game. He chases pitches, and occasionally gets too impatient. But with this change in his game he has the potential to be a more complete player. How good he will be will largely be dependent on if he continues to make adjustments.
+1
a healthy dose of cynicism is always a good thing imo
by blue bulldog on Feb 22, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
One can be too cynical
Bunting – are the assertions made about lack of bunting true or false? If true, doesn’t it follow that bunting more often will cut down his K’s?
2 strike approach – I remember KLaw this past season mentioning Gose’s total lack of a two strike approach. So is the reason for him not even trying to shorten his swing because a) he was told not to b) being told to and refusing to follow instruction or c) being allowed to do whatever he pleases. I would suggest a) is the only logical explanation.
Gose will always strike out a lot – his pitch recognition would have to take a quantum leap forward for him not to. But the article doesn’t claim he’ll have a sub 10% K rate, it only says he should be able to cut down his strikeouts once he starts bunting and shortening his 2 strike swing.
And you're entitled to make that inference
His K% rose from 22.3% in A+ with the Phillies in 2010 to 25.7% with the Jays in 2010 in A+ (same league, FSL though smaller sample size). This 2011 K% in AA was 26.2%, which really isn’t much different,a dn aaginst better competition.
I hope the changes described in the article are real. I just find after the fact explanations are usually attempted justifications, not real reasons. As I said, the proof will be in the pudding this year.
based on that approach
you would have missed the boat on Bautista’s breakout and Hosmers breakout/resurgence. As well as many others.
you would have missed the boat on Bautista’s breakout
Who honestly saw Bautista’s breakout in 2010?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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many expected him to hit 30
no-one predicted what really happened
Who predicted Bautista to hit 30 in 2010?
I remember it being in the 15-20 range myself.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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after watching that September I drafted him myself
of course I traded him early 2011 and trying to get him back. Got a sweetheart deal though.
At the time, while it was nice seeing him hit those bombs in September, I would have attributed it to a good streak from him rather than a significant change in his batting approach. Most did not predict him hitting more than 20 home runs the next season, and for good reasons.
You made a darn good decision drafting him prior to 2010, though, I’ll give you that.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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To clarify – justifications by those with vested interests are suspect. When a team says, so and so on our team did poorly because (fill in blank after the fact), I’m cynical.
When an independent source says something, I’m less skeptical.
After reading anything that drastically changes our view of a player
our first step should be to verify. When it’s a biased party, as in the case above, there might need to be more verification.
Yes
I agree. And I’m utterly unconvinced on the evidence that I’ve seen that Gose’s plate apprach was any different in 2011 than in was previously, in terms of explaining his high K rate.
it explains part of his high K rate
I think the article was bang on with everything it explained. What it totally ignored was Gose has a very real problem with laying off certain pitches, low and away, and can get very impatient.
Before when he was a slap hitter with high K’s there wasn’t a lot of hope he would be more than a 4th OF. Now he has a decent chance of being a very solid contributor even for a championship team. Very little star potential, but a very solid contributor.
I was going to argue that Gose has more than a little star potential
but you’re right, the strikeouts make it unlikely.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. -John Kenneth Galbraith, economist (1908-2006)
and how does that affect anything?
There are a few main premises:
1) Gose changed his swing for more power. That is verifiable by video. We can also see the HR numbers.
2) Gose stopped trying to bunt for hits. This is verifiable by stats if you can find it. It is also verifiable because it was quoted by Gose, not just a supposition by the author.
3) Gose got rid of a 2 strike approach. This would only be verifiable by scouting. At least one analyst independently confirmed the lack of a 2 strike approach, this would be Keith Law.
So I’m not sure what you are trying to refute.
I'm not trying to refute anything
I’m saying take that with a grain of salt. At it’s core, it’s a marketing piece, not a scouting piece. The people who are doing the marketing also happen to iwn the team he played for. I’m not saying to automatically draw an adverse inference, I’m saying it merits some increased skepticism than if it was written by an independent source. What you make of it is your call
Regarding points 1+2, I have no doubts. That can be objectively determined.
Regarding point 3 – if I remember correctly, what Law said is that Gose had made real improvements in his swing, but stilll lacked a solid approach. Not, he has gone downhill, he used to look like he had a clue and now he doesn’t; but, we didn’t have a good approach then and still doesn’t now
Keith Law quote re: Gose
“and his two-strike approach still needs work. As in, he needs an actual two-strike approach.”
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/40713
I think the operative clause is
“his two-strike approach still needs work”. In other words, it stinks, but it’s always been bad.
To be fair
That quote seems to apply to both sides. It implies that the instructions to Gose were being followed and it also implies that nothing has changed for Gose.
To be fair to the Astros
I remember at the time of the trade, it felt that the Astros won this trade because they got a major league ready player versus a high risk talent like Gose. AA had to justify that he was trusting his scouts on this one since some felt it was a bad trade.
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At the time, I didn't have a clue what AA was doing
My thinking was that AA was building towards 2011-13 (mostly likely 2012), and that Wallace fit that timeline nicely. With this move, and the retention of a number of FA-to be relievers at the 2010 trade deadline (Downs, Frasor, Gregg, etc), which meant getting picks in the 2011 draft (who would be MLB contributors in 2013 at the very earliest) rather than prospects close tho the bigs, it became apparent that AA was really playing the long game.
Other comments from AA make me believe that he doesn't see much value in
1B/DH prospect types unless they are truly elite with the bet, or that he at least views them as more valuable as trade chips than anything else.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Yes, of course
the point is though, if you’re building for a window a year or two out, you may not make that trade. And I think I was quite clear that it was the Gose trade coupled with the lack of trades involving relievers that made me re-evaluate what the window actually was.
the window didnt hurt
but I think it was more about AA learning from Ricciardi’s mistakes. They can not build a championship team with a lot of solid competitors. The Jays need to get stars on the cheap. Gose is the type of player that has the tools to become a star outfielder with game changing speed. He also has some red flags.
IMO AA is going after players that can make a big difference and trading away the solid pieces that help teams but don’t necessarily fit championship teams.
If Rasmus bounces back look for Gose to be traded when he starts raking in Vegas.
I really dunno about the Rasmus/Gose prediction
AA has spoken on multiple occasions about how hard it is to find above average or better true CFs, and Rasmu only has 3 years of control before he would hit free agency. If also depends on what the Jays’ true evaluation of Gose is – do they see him as a 4 WAR type player, or more of an average regular type. If they see him as an above average player, I think it’s far more likely they shift Rasmus to left, and put Gose in CF (conditional also on how Snider/Thames/etc perform and any other future trades)
thats possible
There were an awful lot of rumblings about AA being unable to make the trades he wanted in the offseason because other teams wanted minor league talent closer to the majors. AA was trying to move his minor leaguers but couldn’t get what he wanted for them. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Gose is traded.
On the other hand if Rasmus struggles or Gose becomes better than we think he can be then there is no way he gets moved.
BTW – it was very close that Reyes was a Blue Jay but I heard the biggest factor was the artificial turf. What would they have done with Escobar, I guess have him fill that hole at 2B.
Yep. At the time, many analysts considered Gose for Wallace an outright steal for Houston. It’s not looking like a great move on Houston’s part right now, but it’s still a bit early to close the book on it. Wallace could turn things around (but I’m not banking on it), and Gose has a high probability to bust, despite his immense toolset.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Feb 22, 2012 11:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
This
When Wallace was Gose’s age (actually, a year older) he was considered a top 50 prospect for two seasons running. They don’t always pan out—especially with sky-high strikeout rates.
Let’s wait to see if Gose does anything in the majors before we call this one, eh?
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Where do you think Gary Brown would fit in this smackdown?
Apart from John’s rankings, wondering what people think.
I agree
Gary Brown is a potentially a really good one. It seems like people are finally looking past the tedious ‘ARL’ stuff & taking notice.
I have him in my top 50 overall list
Top 20 for positional players. Gose and Marte are top 80/top 35 positional for me.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 23, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Age v. Level
Brown is 2 years older than Gose, and played a level below him last year. Hard for me to see Brown as a clearly better prospect on that basis, when really all he has in his favour is clearly superior contact skills. That’s important, but it’s also just one thing.
I am probably not in the majority on this
But the contact issues for Gose really are worrisome.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 23, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
+1
on the contact issues
that being said, it’s not like i’m particularly high on Gary Brown either
by blue bulldog on Feb 25, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think the glove is quite as good
But the approach is light years better than really either guy. His OBPs should be considerably better, as he will make more contact than Gose and draw more BBs than Marte.
I would guess it all boils down to how much you believe in Brown’s future power. I’d put a solid 40 on it, making him slightly ahead of these two. If you believe he can be a 50 in the power department, he jumps to significantly ahead of both Gose and Marte.
50
doesn’t that = average power? i thought its established that gose and marte both will have average power as well.
very interesting
i don’t follow the TBJ particularly closely, only the Pirates. So, I’ve heard a lot about Marte, but not that much about Gose. It seems that the player that makes better strides with plate discipline will have the better career overall.
It’s hard to say how much of Gose’s approach is dictated by developmental philosophies and how much by his own abilities/shortcomings, but it’ll be interesting to track this. Gose probably has higher bust potential than Marte at this point, but if he improves his contact issues, he’ll also have the higher ceiling.
Gose's approach weakness is probably about 40% raw ability, 30% lack of polish, 30% philosophy adjustment
The Phillies tried to turn him into a slap hitting speedster while in their system and if your being contentious (why the hell not :D) completely screwed the pooch on his hitting development. This meant he’d worked into the small ball areas of hitting (these were thus his more polished areas of hitting when he joined the Jays) but ignored everything else. At that time, you might be able to argue he’d reached maybe 50-70% of his ability in terms of small ball, but that his other hitting skills were near totally undeveloped (20-40% range), and that they’d already built in some real deep flaws in his swing.
On joining the Jays they threw out pretty much all that the Phillies taught Gose, deconstructed his swing and taught him a new one, changed his approach, changed the pitches he’s looked for, etc… After a year and a half of that, he’s now getting comfortable with that new swing, and it’s to a repeatable state (50-60% range of development) and if the scouts are to be believed, the new swing looks good, but he’s not encorporated smallball into the new swing (lets say it’s regressed from his time with the Phillies to about a 30-50% range, he knows what to do but not yet how with the new mechanics) to a point where it’s an asset.
You’ve thus got a Gose that’s maybe unlocked half his small ball ability, half his actual power hitting ability, and is still yet to learn how to mix the two into a complete approach (maybe 20-30% understanding given a natural feel for it, but maybe even lower development). That means Gose as a prospect is stupidly raw in terms of his overall progress, and you could expect some serious progression from him in the coming two years merely from repetition.
On the other side of the coin however, he can’t lay off the ball low and away, this is a raw ability flaw, and even with that 60% from polish and philosophy adjustment in place, he still won’t be a great hitter until he fixes this flaw. This is not a problem with his swing, but a mental thing he needs to deal with. If he never fixes it, he becomes a faster, better defensive version of Corey Patterson, a decent 4th man with maybe a couple of Drew Stubbs type seasons in him at peak that can let him start in CF for a while.
I wish I could remember where I read it, but I did see an article interviewing Travis D’Arnaud the winter after the trade in which he noted in the Phillies org, he was given detailed instruction and goals/specific skills to work on by the club, while the Blue Jays more or less left him alone to improve his game as he wanted.
I’m not sure if that was a system wide SOP or if they just decided to take the training wheels off D’Anaud specifically to let him develop based on something they saw.
Jays tend to do it on a case by case basis
They get a player to a point they’re happy then cut them loose on that portion of their game to experiment. Gose is free to do whatever he wants on the bases now for instance now they are happy with his approach (they cut him loose late last season on that aspect having worked his timing and reading of jumps for a year). If they see an issue (say Alvarez not throwing his slider enough last year) they will set requirements for each start.
It’s a relatively new approach though, as until the last few years they tended to do what Philly is doing, molding the players to a role, rather than developing the players skills then naturally letting them develop their role. You can largely attribute the failures of Ahrens (switch hitting) and Wilson (slap hitting speedster) to this old approach, that stunted a lot of the highschool draft picks by the Jays the last decade.
I think the failures of Ahrens and WIlson
Had more to do with their talent than the Jays messing them up (the Jays may not have helped their development, but I think it’s unfair to blame them for it).
Kenny Wilson
Came out of the same utter fail of a draft that yielded Ahrens and a number of other failed highschoolers. Looked like a promising MI talent but the Jays focused solely on his small ball abilities and the rest of his hitting never developed. The Jays pretty much failed to develop a highschool hitter in the 00’s, and that has to be at least partly down to the development program (similar to the death curse on any Baltimore pitching prospect).
Oh, of course
My goodness, the system has come a long way. I actually remember being somewhat excited that draft & the one prior because Toronto devoted some high end picks to prep talent. Naturally, as you state, nothing has come of it.
Umm
Couple of problems here:
1) Wilson came out of the 2008 draft, not the 07 draft that yielded Ahrens, Justin, etc
2) The failure to develop a high school hitter in the 00’s – I assume by this you mean a players drafted in the 00’s, because otherwise you’re convieniently missing Vernon Wells – is more due to a (very poor) draft philosophy than a faulty development program. From 2002-05, they drafted not one single high school player in the first 5 rounds (position player or pitcher), Snider was the only one in ‘06 (jury’s still out), the 2007 draft had 4, but was a wash, and Wilson was the only one in 2008 in the top 5.
When you barely draft high school position players, you can’t really blame the development program for failing to produce MLBers (that said, the developmental approach was those guys certainly didn’t help, basically there was a lack of institutional memory on what to do with them)
Age context performance
I am a little surprised that the difference in age is not given more weight in the discussions here. Granted, player development is not exactly linear and Marte is not old by any stretch, but 22 months is a significant difference. Gose is difficult to project mainly due to his contact issues but before this season both players had similar strikeout rates. In Marte’s age 20 season he was striking out 22.3% of the time in the SALL. What would Gose have accomplished in Lansing this past season? I can’t help but wonder what is more likely to happen in the majors, Gose hitting .250 with a 10% walk rate or Marte being able to rely on a .390 BABIP to offset a 4% walk rate?
by IamDeadHoratio on Feb 22, 2012 3:50 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
How best to play Marte and McCutchen simultaneously?
So let’s hypothetically jump ahead to 2013 and say that Marte has plus range for a CF, a plus-plus OF arm, and the bat to be an everyday player, and now he’s ready to be inserted into the outfield alongside McCutchen who we’ll rate as a plus range CF with a slightly below-average OF arm. In most situations, I’d say the correct move would be to keep the incumbent CF McCutchen where he is and move the youngster with the plus-plus arm, Marte, to RF where that arm will play better, giving the team a tremendous defensive boost in so much as it now features 2 plus range CF types manning the 2 OF positions where range is most valuable, CF and RF, with the much stronger arm in RF (whether or not that stronger arm belongs to the rangier OF or better CF). But given how vast the LF turf is in PNC park, this might well be the one exception where the better solution may be to move McCutchen to LF and plant Marte in CF since LF range plays perhaps a more important role in that stadium than RF range does.
Leaping forward to 2014 or 2015, the Blue Jays could face a similar decision if Gose and Marisnick continue to progress and declare themselves candidates for full-time major-league OF duty. I think that you have to weigh the pros and cons of range and arm strength and field dimensions (and even who the 3rd OF would be) when you get to the point of deciding where to play 2 guys who might well each be major league CFs if they were on different clubs. Sometimes the best answer isn’t simply to put the best CF in CF.
Spot on
on Cutch/Marte. “Problem” is the belief (attributed due to a quote from Neal Huntington) is that Cutch wants to stay at CF and will most likely get his way. Then the decision is Marte and his arm in RF or Marte and his range in LF.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 22, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
So the wild card is who is the 3rd OF?
I don’t see Tabata as a solid regular over the long haul – he looks more like a 4th OF. Same thing with Presley. Grossman would make a nice fit potentially as switch-hitting high-OBP guy, but he’ll have to show that 2011 was no fluke over this and next season and probably wouldn’t surface as a potential regular OF candidate until 2014.
A more radical move would be for the Pirates to sign Bourn as a FA for 2013, plug him in CF, then shift McCutchen to LF and stick Marte in RF. How’d that sit with you as a Pirate fan?
Eh, I think that would be a bad use of resources and
but I don’t see it happening. Talk about balls not falling in the outfield though.
Between Tabata and Presley, I think you can get at least one below-averge (but not worse) starter at the minimum. Far from ideal, but not the end of the world either.
OF is definitely our deepest position majors/minors combined. Between Bell, Grossman, Marte, McCutchen, and Presley (alphabetical order), I think there is a pretty good chance the Pirates can put a well-above average overall outfield (all three positions; offensively and defensively) on the field for two or three years from 2013-2015, which will coincide with Taillon and Cole in Pittsburgh (again, with some luck). That’s our best chance.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 23, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
On Marte's
swing/approach, I’ll go ahead and go out on a huge limb here. Also, for the record, I saw Marte play a half dozen times at WV, so I’m not just guessing here. At the same time, I’m far from a seasoned scout nor was it a large sample size.
Here’s a quote from an ESPN Insider article
“When Cano was young, he swung at almost everything,” Newman said. “That was because he could hit everything. But over time, he’s really improved in that area. He’ll never be a player with an even average walk rate, but he definitely swings at better pitches.”
I’m not saying Marte is as good as or will be as good as Cano, but that Marte has a similar approach. He’s so good at making contact that he hasn’t “learned” plate discipline. I’m not even saying it’s a guarantee that Marte will, but just he hasn’t had to really show/develop patience thus far in the minor leagues due to his talent.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 22, 2012 7:11 PM EST reply actions
would be interesting to see a study on this type of minor league hitter
and the rate/% of them that improve/learn a better approach as MLB regulars.
I don't buy it.
His 17.4% strikeout rate as a 22 year old in AA was nothing special—in fact, it’s very average. You have to get down close to 10% at an age-appropriate level before your contact abilities can be called “plus”, in my opinion.
I lean toward the “he got lucky on balls in play” explanation for his batting average.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
strikeout rate and contact ability do not always go hand in hand
some players have fantastic contact ability but chase a lot of pitches. Their outside of zone contact rates will be low, as they are for everyone, and because of their propensity to chase pitches their K rates will be high.
A propensity to chase pitches is part of contact ability
If a guy can’t tell when a pitch is going to wind up outside the zone and swings at stuff he can’t hit, that’s a problem dragging down his ability to hit for average.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I think you are arguing
semantics here which does nothing for us.
My point is fairly clear. Marte has, in my opinion, an elite ability to make contact with the baseball when he swings. Could his pitch recognition/selection improve? Absolutely. No guarantee it does, but I think his lack of walks can be explained, at least in part, by the fact that he simply swings at everything and obviously has the talent to hit it.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 23, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
the ability to make contact and the ability to choose which pitches to swing at
are very different skills.
The point is that it doesn't matter if the end result is the same
I don’t think I’m the one arguing semantics. My point is that Marte strikes out too much and walks too little to be considered to have elite hit tool. I don’t care whether that’s because of swing mechanics or pitch selection. Both are part of hit tool.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
You are defining
hit tool one way. I’m defining it another way. You didn’t bring anything new to my statement except for outlining how you define ‘hit tool.’ That is semantics.
I think he has an elite hit tool and poor plate discipline that is a a result of his elite hit tool.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 24, 2012 2:26 AM EST up reply actions
We know enough at baseball to understand now
How important pitch recognition and plate discipline are. I think in today’s game we need to be melding those things into the overall “hit tool” umbrella so we can get a more accurate feel for how they will translate to the MLB level. That isn’t semantics, that’s trying to do the best job you can assessing a prospect’s chances of success.
It sounds like you want to intentionally ignore Marte’s problems controlling the strike zone so that you can argue he’s better than he really is. Unless he figures out how to close the gap between his walks and strikeouts he’s going to really struggle to get on base at the ML level, and I believe it also signifies that he will not hit for nearly as high a batting average as we’re seeing now in his minor league career. ML pitchers will be able to exploit his flaws much better than minor league ones will.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Everything you've said
is quite possible and far from a crazy argument. I’m not sure how melding helps though. In that same vein, I would assume you’d rather use wOBA to evaluate a prospect rather than a tripleslash because it ‘melds’ average, OBP, and slugging.
However, then we wouldn’t be able to tell, for example, that Marte has horrible plate discipline. I haven’t seen strong evidence to suggest that for, for example, a player with an average hit tool and average plate discipline/pitch recognition can be grouped together with a player with an above-average hit tool and below-average plate discipline or a below-average hit tool and above-average plate discipline. That’s an over-simplified example, but that seems like what you are trying to do; over-simplify ‘hit tool.’
That’s different than saying, I think “ML pitchers will be able to exploit his flaws much better than minor league ones will.” Which is saying even if he has an elite/great ability to make contact, his plate recognition will limit that ability. Again, it’s almost if you are saying make OBP ‘ability’ exactly equal to hit tool. I’ve seen no evidence to make that assumption. I’m not saying it’s out there, or that those two aren’t tied together, but I need more than, “I don’t care whether that’s because of swing mechanics or pitch selection. Both are part of hit tool,” no offense. Again, it just seems like an over-simplification
As a side note, you say, “Unless he figures out how to close the gap between his walks and strikeouts he’s going to really struggle to get on base at the ML level.” I agree wholeheartedly, which is why I’m confused no one manages to notice/mention that Marte’s K% dropped 6%. Maybe I’m crazy, but 6% seems like more than “although his K-rate did drop a little last year,” as John put it. If you use the 2010 ML average for K rate, (I understand that Marte’s 17.5% K rate in AA doesn’t mean he can maintain the same rate in the MLB necessarily; I’m using it to provide numerical context) Marte went from being in the worst 25% to being in the best 40-45%. That seems like a pretty dramatic jump too me.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 24, 2012 8:25 AM EST up reply actions
I think both are overrated, but I prefer Gose
Mainly because he has youth on his side, and also because I think Marte has more of an inflated BABIP influencing the perception of him.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Who say's
it’s inflated? At some point a high BABIP becomes a trend and not an anomaly. Is Marte at that point? I’d argue he is.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 23, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
it's relative effects on overall lines that matter
there’s no way Marte bats with a BABIP of 390 in the majors, and i think optimistically speaking, Marte at best bats with a BABIP of 330 in the majors
on the other hand, Gose’s current line represents a BABIP of 330, and i think at worst (assuming he even makes the majors) he’s batting a BABIP of 290-300.
the point is that BABIP regression to expected MLB baselines hurts Marte’s overall line a lot more than it hurts Gose’s
i’m not too fond of either prospect to be honest
by blue bulldog on Feb 25, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
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