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Scouting Report: Trevor Story, SS, Rockies

Story is an interesting prospect. He was at many showcases including the Area Code Games and always looked like he belonged. He was commited to LSU and would have done well in college had he took that route but he was drafted high enough to not attend.

At 6'1, 175, he ins't a huge guy but he is strong for his size. He isn't a physical player but is athletic and can add strength and weight to his frame. He is a 5-tool talent. While none of those tools are on the high end of the scale, other than his arm, they are all 50 or better. He has above average contact ability with very good bat control. His knows when to cut loose a big swing and when to connect and hit the ball back up the middle. He has more power potential than he currently shows and could be a 20+ homer guy if he fills out his frame. He knows how to draw walks and has all the skills he needs to be a solid hitter

Star-divide

Gaining weight will work against him in the field where his range is just average. He isn't a sure thing to stick at SS but with his foot quickness and rocket of an arm, it allows him to compensate for lacking the range of a small, speedy shortstop. He could potentially stick at shortstop but I would bet he ends up at 3B or even in right field with that arm, if he gains more strength. In another system, he may be kept at short to see if he fits but in Colorado, I would bet he gets moved over.

Looking at his stolen bases in his pro debut, 13 in 14 attempts over 47 games. That isn't going to project to a full season. He isn't a 40 steal guy. That shows you how well he understands the game. He knows when to run and takes advantage of that.

I'm looking forward to seeing how he develops this season. Story is a player that could have a wide variety of outcomes. He could be an average defensive SS, an above average defensive 3B or RF and his bat should be good but I don't see great. I'm thinking he could be a .270/.340/.450 hitter with a dozen steals each year. That would make him a very good hitter for SS but average for 3B and RF. His defense should be good wherever he plays and could have a long MLB career if everything works out right. I think he was a great pick at 45 overall for the Rockies. There is a very small chance he could be a Tulo-type but if I were a Rockies fan, I'd compare him to newly acquired Michael Cuddyer for what I would hope for in a best case scenario.

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thanks

for putting things in perspective with Story. Great work as usual.

by Chris Buckley on Feb 16, 2012 3:55 PM EST reply actions  

Story is a favored flavor right now

Trevor Story has draft cache and the Rockies saw him as desirable enough to select. He surprised with hit bat during his pro debut and the attention he’s received since by many analysts has been extremely encouraging.

The concern I have is a big question on Story at draft time was his bat – was it good enough to hit at the pro level? His debut is too small a sample size to assume he’s a star prospect.

He was the Rockies’ best prospect at Casper but he is one who fans should be cautiously optimistic about until more proof is shown at higher levels.

I see Story playing at 3B or 2B defensively (and doing it well) down the road. Will he hit enough? Not sure at this time. He will have undesirable power at 3B but plus-power potential at 2B. Hitting for average is the question to be answered.

Nice writeup Matt. Thank you for sharing.

Colorado Rockies’ Prospects Report.

by Mjay424 on Feb 16, 2012 4:09 PM EST reply actions  

I have an off-topic question to ask of the MLB Draft crew

Is there anyone playing for UC Davis that’s worth noting? I’m a student and i’m planning on going to some games when the season starts, and i want to know who to look out for.

@TElciram

by Taylor Maricle on Feb 16, 2012 7:20 PM EST reply actions  

Eh..

LHP Dayne Quist and SS Adam Young are worth watching but not top prospects.
I’ll be updating this site soon for top college prospects to watch.

by Matt Garrioch on Feb 16, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Crowded on the left side

With Tulo at SS and Arenado destined for 3B, a move to RF or 2B seems to make sense. Does anyone else see Story moving one of these guys? Also, what do you think his ETA is?

Play ball!

by tmannino on Feb 16, 2012 9:10 PM EST reply actions  

RF would work

For him. Not sure about 2B. Have to see him there. ETA 2016ish

by Matt Garrioch on Feb 16, 2012 10:20 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

FWIW, BA did list Story as the Rockies' projected second baseman for 2015

but that may be due to the overall lack of other infield prospects in the upper levels of the system, excepting Rutledge with whom there is much to be skeptical of anyway.

Also, as a Rockies fan, I think a lot of us are taking any projected ML success for Arenado with a grain of salt, since our last “can’t miss” 3B prospect was Ian Stewart…

by steakman on Feb 16, 2012 11:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I think

he could play 2B, I’m just not sure of what level. That is why I see Cuddyer as a good comp. He wasn’t good enough defensively to be a regular even though he was a former SS and great athlete.

by Matt Garrioch on Feb 17, 2012 9:16 AM EST up reply actions  

a 270/340/450

hitter with above average defense at 3B is an above average player

in fact, just speaking from an offensive standpoint, 270/340/450 is already approximately 15 runs above league average per 600 PA

by blue bulldog on Feb 17, 2012 4:37 AM EST reply actions  

I agree

that would be an above average player.

There are the numbers I use but I think both LF and 3B averages are decreasing because of the power downturn.

by Matt Garrioch on Feb 17, 2012 9:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Don't forget Story was only 18 playing in the Pioneer League..

where the average hitter is 21 and the average pitcher is 21.5 So he was outplaying his older competition, he definitely has room to grow and improve.

Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." ~ Red Barber
PRMLB - Phillies

by Charlie77 on Feb 17, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

What are the odds Story and Rosell Herrera both end up in the OF?

"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides

by TomCat009 on Feb 17, 2012 2:09 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks...really needed this

Thanks for the analysis. I read a Tulo quote basically saying Story reminds of him of himself when he was in high school, so I started to get a little too excited about Story. Your analysis brought me back down to earth…. appreciate it.

by scarletknight17 on Feb 18, 2012 4:45 AM EST reply actions  

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