Henderson Alvarez
by John Black on Feb 12, 2012 8:33 PM EST
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PrintI was hoping to get your thoughts on Henderson Alvarez with regards to what kind of potential he has. He has 2 plus pitches, mid 90s fastball and a killer changeup. The slider is still a work in progress, but I have seen him snap off a few nice tight sliders. He needs to continue developing the pitch and gain consistency. With his stuff, he should get more strikeouts, but the career milb k rate is 6.5 k/9. I think once the slider comes around, the k rate will increase to 7+ k/9.
Keith Law ranked Alvarez #39 on his midseason 50 list last summer. He made his debut for the Blue Jays in the 2nd half as a 21 year old and held his own: 63.2 IP, 40 K, 3.53 era, 3.38 xfip, 3.42 siera, 1.13 whip, only 8 bb. Small sample size, but we can agree that this was an impressive start to a career for just a 21 year old kid. He did this with pretty much only his fastball and changeup. If the breaking ball improves, I think he is gonna be a darn good pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays. Furthermore, his elite groundball rates (50+%) will contribute to his success in the AL East.
What are your thoughts on Henderson Alvarez?
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Alvarez
I have been fairly high on Alvarez and think he has a very nice ceiling. I would say the best case scenario is a #2 but the more realistic view is a top notch #3 ceiling probably. With that said I don’t think he will be someone that transitions quickly to the bigs. I see him taking a few years to get fully comfortable pitching in the bigs and another year or 2 after that to show consistency. Just my thoughts though.
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Small sample size
But last year’s results suggest otherwise.
by sportsfreak2744 on Feb 13, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
but small sample size
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 13, 2012 5:02 AM EST up reply actions
Good advice
This probably explains how I ‘missed’ on Corey Thurman.
I think that’s something you would say about guys that struggle to throw strikes and walk a lot of guys but Alvarez is the opposite of that.
but who knows…
Both pitches have the exact same motion
and it’s why he will struggle at times until he gets something like a slider. Even if he had a good cutter it might do the trick. Without a new pitch I see him more as a backend starter.
If he can get the slider going, which I’m not that confident in, or a cutter then lookout. He could be a #2 fitting nicely behind Romero.
do you know if he is gonna continue working on the slider...
Or try to develop a new breaking ball?
by John Black on Feb 13, 2012 5:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He has been working on the slider and it hasn't progressed like it should
Alvarez has lots of arm speed so should be able to get lots of break. But the slider is way too inconsistent for him. My guess is they will attempt either a curve or a cut fastball.
For pitchers that have natural tailing action it can be a little more difficult, especially if it’s from a 3/4 slot, to get a quality curve/slider.
My guess is if the slider doesn’t improve during spring training they will try either a curve or a cut fastball.
He switched to the slider from a curveball
Don’t expect to see him move back anytime soon.
And while we're on the subject of his slider
I’d argue it’s very much a work in progress, it only being the 2nd year he’s been using it fulltime. Considering he’s also only been using it with the current grip since the Jays visit to Seattle near the end of the season (Felix Hernandez gave him a few tips) i’d argue any comments on it’s current future viability are a little premature. I agree with you on the likelyhood of him trying a cut fastball in the future, but really he only needs the slider to be average for it to play up with his other pitches being so good.
slider
It’s not whether it’s “average” or whatever. It’s how consistently it breaks. I’m not trying to sound like a smart-ass. Some pitchers have a wipeout slider that is inconsistent, some a good slider that hangs, etc.
Alvarez doesn’t need a slider with a ton of movement. He needs a pitch that consistently moves away from RH hitters. That is why I think a cutter might be best. His slider can be very good but often times is a BP fastball. I understand it’s only 2 years but IMO it’s just not going to work. Two years and horrible consistentcy doesn’t work. Combined with his mechanics, I don’t see it.
Hopefully the cut fastball does the trick.
I think we're pretty much on the same page in terms of what we're looking for
from the slider. It’s that consistant break that is needed (basically something that breaks the other way to the rest of his stuff) and what the Jays have been trying to coach him. The cause for slight optimism was the greater consistancy of break with the new grip he was using, the reason for pessimism is that it was incredibly SSS, and he’s shown limited track record with breaking pitches.
He’s definitely one to watch closely though at season start, as if that progression is a reality he’s going to come on very fast.
command
If he doesn’t get that 3rd pitch in the mix he really needs to get his command better. Masterson would be a good guy to look at, he got crushed when he first came up especially lefties. Masterson is still mostly a 2 pitch guy but his fastball command has really improved.
I am pretty high on Alvarez. Love his stuff, his sinking/2-seamer fastball is just so nasty with movement, good velocity and he throws a lot of strikes. Change-up is a plus pitch which he manages to get swings and misses with. Slider is something he really needs to improve on if he wants to be a great pitcher but if he can get that pitch to be average, I think he could be a #2/3 starter.
I dont think he will have to have a good strikeout rate to be successful if he can keep that walk rate down and keep getting groundballs.
Stuff doesn't match results
Somewhat worrisome, but he’s young enough to change that. I like him.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 13, 2012 3:30 AM EST reply actions
His
production thus far (K/9 rate) haven’t matched his incredible stuff. Young enough for that to change.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 13, 2012 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
I dont think it ever will just because he is not that type of guy to miss a lot of bats. Maybe if his slider saw a drastic improvement but i wouldn’t bank on that.
reminds me a bit of roy halladay. not in terms of stuff but just in terms of that low strikeout + low walk rate + great groundball rate. he likely won’t ever be nearly as good but I think he could work well with that combination. On a related note, Doc K rate was even worse than Alvarez K rate in the minors
I think people are focusing too much on last year's performance
While he has good velo on his fastball, it comes in straight as an arrow. He can be okay pitching to contact, but without movement on it I just don’t see many Ks in his future. He’s still not a junk pitcher, with his youth he still has the potential to be a John Lackey kind of guy (before he tanked) but I see him more as a soilid #3-#4 starter in all likelihood.
For what it’s worth, ZIPS hates him, and while they tend to be pessimistic in general, they are good at predicting pitcher performance.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Feb 13, 2012 5:05 AM EST reply actions
straight as an arrow?
Every start I watched his fastball tails down and away from LH hitters. The movement for the 2 seam is significantly more than for the 4 seam.
As you can see by the below graph:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/printarticle/2011-futures-game-pitchf-x/
http://baseballinstinct.com/2011/08/10/prospect-instinct-henderson-alvarez-rhp-toronto-blue-jays/
congo hammer
has clearly not watched this guy
by sportsfreak2744 on Feb 13, 2012 2:14 PM EST reply actions
+1
There is a lot of tail on the 2 seamer and changeup.
by John Black on Feb 13, 2012 5:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's funny...
If I was to see a guy with a mid to high 90’s Fastball, and an amazing change-up but no other pitches to speak of playing on a team with obvious deficiencies in the later innings, I would have thought he would have been groomed for closer. At least get a shot at it. I will say 1 thing, 8 walks, small sampling or not, is huge when it comes to power pitchers…
Catch the Taste!
Typically 2 pitch relievers are FB/SL or FB/CB
and those that are FB/CH typically have a swing and miss change, think Trevor Hoffman. Henderson has a CH that induces weak contact. He will be given every opportunity to start, after all getting a consistent SL or CB is much harder than mastering a consistent CH.
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