Eric Hosmer: All Star First Baseman?
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 10, 2012 12:01 PM EST
Email
PrintI was listening to Inside Pitch on SiriusXM radio yesterday afternoon, and Jim Bowden stated he thinks Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer will be an All Star within the next five years. Heck, he even predicted he could be a Triple Crown winner before his career is over, but let's stick with Hosmer being an All Star within the next five seasons.
When I first heard it, I said to myself "well yeah. He's a stud and will continue to get better over the next five seasons. He SHOULD be an All Star first baseman at some point." But wait.
The list of excellent first baseman in the American League seems to go on forever. And that was before this offseason, where we saw Albert Pujols sign with the Angels and Prince Fielder sign with the Tigers. You have that guy over in Boston-Adrian Gonzalez-who is a former All Star. And Mark Teixeira in New York is not too shabby if he can get back to hitting for a better average. Don't forget the guy Fielder is displacing from first base, Miguel Cabrera, and White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko is still putting up All Star-like stats at the age of 36 even though every year some fantasy baseball writer will project a bust of a season for him.
More after the jump:
Hosmer had a very good rookie season, and I would not have been surprised if he had won the AL Rookie of the Year last year. The 22 year old hit .293-.334-.465 with 19 HRs, 78 RBI, 66 runs and 11 stolen bases in 523 at bats last season, and everyone has bought into the Joey Votto comparisons.
Votto, in his rookie season with the Reds hit .297-.368-.506 with 24 HRs, 84 RBI, 67 runs scored and 7 stolen bases in 526 at bats. One thing Votto did at the plate, right from the start, was take a walk. He walked at a 10% clip in his rookie season, and has seen that grow to just over 15% in 2011.
Hosmer didn't walk too much last season, as his 6% walk rate indicates, but he strikes out less than Votto, striking out in just 14.6% of his at bats last season, while Votto struck out 17.3% of his at bats in his rookie season.
But getting back to Hosmer becoming an All Star. I took that to mean the "starting" first baseman at the All Star game, and Bowden confirmed it. Now, I can see Pujols, Teixeira and Fielder slowing down a bit in the next 5 seasons, but Adrian Gonzalez might give Hosmer the biggest fight as the All Star first baseman for the American League.
Frankly, I could see each of them taking their turns as the All Star, but what are the chances Hosmer can have a better season than any of Pujols. Fielder, Teixeira, Cabrera, and Gonzalez over the next 5 seasons?
78 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I think Bowden could be right
Hosmer had a 119 OPS + in his rookie year as a 21 year old. The only guys you mentioned in this article who were able to have an OPS+ over 119 as a 21 year old were Pujols and Cabrera, so I think Hosmer has the upside to pull off a couple All Star appearances. Luckily for Hosmer, Cabrera will be a 3rd baseman for a few seasons, however terribly that works out. He just needs to reach his ceiling, which is about as high as Fielder and Gonzalez, and he’s off to a good start.
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
This question has more going on than pure performance
In three years, Hosmer could possibly be putting up better numbers than Pujols, Fielder, Cabrera, Agon, etc, at the ASB. But does that mean that he will be getting the votes? Not unless the voting system is changed drastically, IMO.
So, on a strict performance level—sure, he could possibly put up a better half-season than any of those guys in 5 years. But I still doubt he’d be the starting 1B at the game.
by walnut falcons on Feb 10, 2012 12:55 PM EST reply actions
I disagree.
Hosmer is a very popular player and has received a large amount of hype.
by mr. maniac on Feb 10, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Small market super star
always appeals to fans, he’ll be noticed.
XandyMan Coming for you!!!!1
by DominicanDandy on Feb 10, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
why hasn't Votto ever started an ASG?
There is such a glut of elite, huge name 1B in the AL than I just don’t see it happening. With casual fans voting, it’s going to take an absolute monster year from Hosmer to overcome the token votes Pujols, Tex, Fielder, Agon, and Cabrera will get.
Back to Votto— he has never started an ASG, and his primary 1B competition is now in the AL with Hosmer. So, realistically, Hosmer would have to peak noticeably higher than Votto in order to win the fan vote. That’s a really high bar to set.
I think you guys are either giving ASG voters way too much credit, are really, incredibly high on Hosmer, or both. Because even with Votto’s best competition out of the NL, don’t think for a second that Ryan Howard won’t be stealing votes left and right.
by walnut falcons on Feb 10, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Votto didnt deserve to start simple as that
2009 Pujols had far superior numbers, 2010 Votto and Pujols had almost identical numbers and of course that means Pujols would start, 2011 Fielder had better numbers.
The initial arguement was "everyone loves a small-market star"
by walnut falcons on Feb 10, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
When did St Louis and MILWAUKEE become big markets
They aren’t really much different than Cincy.
Big Sexy
Follow KBR and Dewey on Twitter! @KBRandDewey
by King Billy Royal on Feb 10, 2012 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
Different players
Pujols is the “best in the game”
Fielder has name recognition and was on the radar before he hit puberty.
by walnut falcons on Feb 10, 2012 7:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Pujols/Fielder/Votto
They all play in small to medium sized markets. They’re all good players. But you’re really ignoring the fact that two of these guys have completely irrefutable name value and one of them does not. Name value counts at the ASG nearly as much as production.
Which is why I compare Hosmer with Votto moreso than Pujols/Fielder. He isn’t likely to have a ton of name value unless he becomes the best player in the game, or is the absolute cornerstone of a massive uptick in Royals baseball, similar to Longoria with the Rays.
by walnut falcons on Feb 10, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
how does a player get name value? By being one of the best
Votto has never had that at the All-star break. If Hosmer is the best he will get that name value. Maybe the first year he is the best he won’t get that all-star selection, sure.
BTW – Longoria is a great example. He has far far too much name value compared to what he does. I hear from many how he is a much better fielder than Beltre which is silly. He is a great fielder. And while a very good hitter he is not as good as his name value. Great player though. Hosmer can definitely do the same in KC. Just look at why Longo has that name – his fielding is very good, excellent bat, and by far the best player on the team. Well Hosmer should be a good fielder, will definitely be the best bat on a young and seriously improving team.
Votto is just a bad example. He never deserved to make the all-star game so how can we say he didn’t make it because of his name? And it’s only been 3 years for him. Lets see next year, I expect him to start the all-star game.
Longoria
Whatever his name value, he has a legitimate claim to best player in the game.
Fight for licensed online poker in 30 seconds. Take part in the daily action plan!
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Poker-Players-Alliance-Daily-Action-Plan/240644152648049
twitter @PPADailyAction
totally disagree
don’t think he is even in the top 5, maybe top 10?
Name 5 better overall players.
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 11, 2012 8:15 AM EST up reply actions
Kemp, Bautista, Pujols, Tulo, Miggy, Braun, Cano
btw based on WAR Longoria was 16th. And I believe WAR overrates his defensive contributions.
He also only played 133 games last year
Over the last five years, Longoria is sixth in fWAR, behind Pujols, Utley, Holliday, ARod, and Cabrera. Given a margin of error, which I try to take into account, and he is in the argument for fifth with Cabrera, Pedroia, and HanRam. Given the fact that the four in front of him are on the wrong end of the aging curve, and he could very well have an argument for top player, and certainly for top five.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 11, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
Good point
for some reason, I thought he had been around longer. Since 2008, he is second to Pujols. The only other one within a margin of error is Utley. So he is already a top five, if not top two player.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 11, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
Umm
The guy is second in fWAR among position players since he’s entered the league, behind only (you guessed it) Pujols. 4th if you count pitchers, behind Pujols, Halladay and Lee.
And do you have any basis to your claim that WAR overrates his defensive contributions or are you just saying that to make your opinion look better?
by BaconBits on Feb 11, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yes I have a basis
First of all everyone knows defensive measurements are lacking. Trying to claim they are not is silly.
Second they have Longoria equal to or better than Beltre on D. This is crazy. I know Longoria is excellent on D, I watch about half of the Rays games. But Beltre is the best 3B I have ever seen, and I don’t think it’s close.
So because Longoria isn't as good on defense as the best defensive 3b you've ever seen
he’s not a top 5 player, even though he is also excellent on defense?
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 12, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Because WAR is giving him as much or more value on D
thus I have a basis on why WAR is giving too much defensive credit to Longoria.
It’s just logic – if Beltre is the best ever and there is a decent size gap between Beltre and Longoria and yet Longoria gets as much D value or more from WAR then WAR D value for Longoria is flawed. Simple IMO.
But this is all based on your eyes and not actual statistics.
Where would you rank Longoria among defensive 3b? How much better is Beltre?
How much WAR should Longoria have accumulated in his career if defense was measured up to the standard of your keen eyesight?
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 12, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
normally I prefer stats to eyesight
but defensive stats have been so bad I depend on eyesight right now. Teams on the other hand have access to hit f/x data, but I think it’s only in a few stadiums?
Longoria is definitely among the best. Obviously it’s hard to say how much separates the two of them. Is it .5 WAR, that seems low. And 3 or 4 WAR seems to way overstate the difference. Maybe 1 to 2 WAR? It’s just a guess of course.
exactly, that is the problem
when we base it on eyes and not statistics. Unfortunately right now with defensive metrics that is the better course.
If/when MLB ever lets us get access to field f/x then we have some real way to measure defensive value.
Are you only using one season's amount of data?
lulz
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 11, 2012 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wasn't trying to say Votto didn't make it *just* because of his name value
Like you said, he was never “the best” in the first half.
But, in the first half of 2010, Votto had an OPS of 1.011. Yet he finished outside of the top 5 in fan voting. Behind, amongst others, JAMES LONEY.
He did finish second in 2011, which would of course imply that he would have been on his way to beating Pujols and Fielder had they stayed in the league, but it’s a long process.
And, 2011 was Votto’s fifth year in the majors. Which means that if Hosmer were to follow a similar growth pattern to Votto (very optimistic), that at the tail end of this poll’s cutoff is when he would start to get serious casual-fan recognition.
I don’t know. There are just way too many things that have to break just right for me to believe Hosmer will get to that point. He has to be an absolute, undeniable superstar, the old guard of superstars have got to really fall off a cliff, and no new, bigger name superstars (I’m look at you, Montero) can emerge. It’s just a huge longshot.
If it took Joey Votto 4 years of elite production to get more votes than James Loney, I just don’t see how Hosmer is going to do it.
by walnut falcons on Feb 11, 2012 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
The immediate year after Votto was equal or better than the All-star selection
he almost made it in – and he was clearly behind Prince last year. If he had better numbers than Prince he would have made it.
Yes, it’s definitely a long shot. The competition is fierce. But the small market seems to be overstated. Many players start from these markets, just not as many as from NY/Boston/etc.
And I don’t see the 4 years for Votto. Votto had 1 year where he was equal or surpassed Pujols. That next year he would have won but Prince was much better at the break.
If Hosmer has the best year or close to it then he will have his name recognition. He will then need to follow up with another huge year to get the nod. I don’t expect it to happen, never bet against the house.
one thing he's going to have to do
is walk more than 6% of the time
by walnut falcons on Feb 11, 2012 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
Numbers have nothing to do with AS votes
Or else Jeter would not have been voted starter last year.
by cookiedabookie on Feb 11, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?
BTW – Longoria is a great example. He has far far too much name value compared to what he does.
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 11, 2012 8:14 AM EST up reply actions
Obviously he gets overrated since the Rays have so many fans who talk about him.
We all know the Rays have tons of fans.
Can you at least explain your comment?
How much more does he have accomplish on the field to close the gap that is far far from his name value?
Also, which pedro are you a phile for?
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 12, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
mr.maniac is just making snarky comments implying that since the Rays don't have a lot of fans
and so he can’t be overrated. Which is terrible logic since people other than Rays fans can overrate a player.
Pedro Martinez – IMO the best pitcher that ever played the game, shorter career but the most dominant stretch ever.
Rays fans don't claim mr. maniac.
Don’t worry about that little bugger.
Are you a Sox fan or just a Pedro fan? Even as a Rays fan, I’m also a huge fan of Martinez. I don’t think he’s a GOAT, though.
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 12, 2012 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
and your argument was that point was incorrect because Votto should have started an ASG
He never was the best player at the all-star break. St.Louis isn’t one of the largest cities and neither is Milwaukee and yet Votto was beaten out by them. I really don’t understand your logic.
Votto had much better pre-ASG stats in 2010 than Pujols
Pujols 2010 pre-ASG: 280/350/500
Votto 2010 pre-ASG: 314/422/589
Pujols 2010 pre-ASG: 308/416/576
I don’t know where you got your numbers from.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/4574/year/2010/albert-pujols
I was looking at first half vs 2nd half.
Looks like Pujols got hot right right before the ASG.
by silverbook1 on Feb 10, 2012 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
But most of the votes are in way before that last couple of weeks.
It’s not as though they have the entire season pre-ASG, and then an election day. Pujols would have won even if he didn’t get hot.
I think Hosmer will make, not start, an all-star game in the next five years. I voted yes, thinking that that was the question.
Not in that league
But maybe after 5 when the current talent fades out.
LOL, no
Not so long as fans are voting.
Pujols could start hitting like David Eckstein and he’d still be the starting first basemen for the next three years.
If Hosmer’s as good as advertised, he could be the starting 1B for the years 6-10 years from now though.
In addition to fending off the existing 1Bers
Hosmer also has to fend off outfielders migrating to first. For example, the Jays might move Bautista to 1st (Bautista would not go back to 3rd because Lawrie would be there) in a year or two. I grant you that in 5 years, Hosmer should probably be a better batter than Bautista, but Bautista wouldn’t be the only outfielder moving to 1st in the next 5 years.
People are bring the fan voting as a reason he wouldn't make it but I see it the other
way. Small market super stars always appeal to fans if he puts up numbers up to par with the other contenders he’ll get the votes. Also fans have gotten much better as far as the voting goes and after all its a fans game so they should vote.
I have more confidence on the Fans voting than writers or players but thats just me.
XandyMan Coming for you!!!!1
Then (like walnut falcon said) why hasn't Votto started the AS game?
The guy is an MVP.
Sorry, I’m a diehard KC fan, but your argument doesn’t hold H2O.
Votto
2009 – First full season and missed almost 30 games in the first half. OPS 1027. Pujols OPS 1179.
2010 – OPS 1011. Pujols OPS 992. He was up by 19 points which isn’t a lot especially since Pujols consistently has been the best player in the league.
2011 – OPS 945. Pujols OPS 857. He definitely deserved it last year, obviously got ripped off.
Two out of the three years he didn’t make the AS game because he wasn’t the best (one of those years it was arguable) and one year he was ripped off.
Further, Pujols has been legendary and was worshipped in St.Louis. But the last year or two he has come down a notch and he doesn’t have that worship in Anaheim. Unless Pujols plays like he did before he will probably have to earn his starting role in the ASG.
Its not likely he starts the ASG, then again it’s not likely Prince, Tex, Pujols, AGon, etc. start the all-star game. The competition is too fierce to predict any of them.
oops
2011 OPS 945. Fielder OPS 995.
So Votto never started the All-star game because he was never clearly the best player at the half.
He definitely
has a high % chance of making an All-star team as a starter. The key word is 5 years as I don’t think he’ll out perform any of this guys this season or next season but by year 3 I think he’ll be reaching his celing as a high avg/high power slugger.
XandyMan Coming for you!!!!1
You have to assume those guys fade
And no one else rises up. I wonder if there are any high profile, slugging ex-Yankee prospects involved in blockbuster deals that might end up playing 1B and getting a ton if attention.
by walnut falcons on Feb 10, 2012 7:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I voted "yes", but after reading the responses, I'd prolly change it now
As for the “yes” vote, I do think he’ll advance to the point where he would get consideration as an AS starter. After that, there’s simply too many variables to not think he could get “lucky” once. He could have a career year, others could have a down year, injuries, etc. are just too much to ignore – 2x so when considering the advancing age of some of the other contenders listed. Just too many variables to not think that a kid who had decent success as a 21 yo do it just once.
But I do agree with the fan voting angle, Boston and NY are proven as a hard markets to overcome and LA could be a sleeping giant in this regard as well. Other markets might vote him in just to see someone in a different uniform, but that’s hardly a bloc. Unless he gets the love as being the only guy from either Boston or New York as the guy who could beat whichever of Teixeria or Gonzalez is the leader, then I couldn’t see him as getting enough of a consensus to steal the thunder.
All-star game appearances
I think with Pujols, Fielder, A-Gon, in the AL for the perceived future, how many actual appearances will he make in the next 5 years?
I’d put the over/under at 2.5.
Not gonna happen
If Joe Mauer could barely beat out a washed up Varitek in 2008, a small market Eric Hosmer has basically zero chance to start at 1st base unless he becomes the best player in the game
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Feb 10, 2012 5:31 PM EST via mobile reply actions
fans are getting smarter
In 2011 Bautista got the most votes for the All Star games in history. That tells me people at least get the idea of “vote good players for the AS game”
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Well if Hosmer hits 50+ HR in a season
I think he’ll be voted top 1b for the following ASG, barring injury.
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 11, 2012 8:18 AM EST up reply actions
so a small market Mauer getting the all-star start is somehow proof a small market Hosmer can not?
I really don’t get this logic.
I'll help you out
-in the first half of 2008, mid-market Joe Mauer is playing at a level much higher than any other AL catcher.
-in the first half of 2008, big-market “Captain” Jason Varitek is playing at a level that would have cost a less-decorated player his job.
-In the all-star voting, mid-market Joe Mauer just barely managed to overcome big-market Jason Varitek, despite their 200 point difference in OPS.
So, what smoooooth is trying to say is, if Joe Mauer can just barely beat Jason Varitek for a roster spot despite a colossal difference in production, what chance does Hosmer have when considering he will NEVER have that kind of production advantage?
Now, obviously this is a cherry-picked example and isn’t indicative of the voting every year, but it is something that happens too frequently.
by walnut falcons on Feb 10, 2012 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
Ding ding ding ding
We have a winner!!! As a Twins fan it was incredibly frustrating to see that bum Varitek lead the voting until only a couple weeks before the game.
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Feb 10, 2012 10:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
just to show what Hosmer will have overcome being a Royal
It’s incredibly tough for a guy who isn’t an established superstar or a big market player to get a starting gig at the All Star game
Mauer .322 /.418/.455
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=mauerjo01&year=2008&t=b
Varitek .218/.299/.354
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=varitja01&year=2008&t=b
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080526&content_id=2775189&vkey=allstar2008&fext=.jsp
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080701&content_id=3044980&vkey=allstar2008&fext=.jsp
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar08/news/story?id=3475435
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
so what you are saying is the 1st year Hosmer is the best he likely wont get the starting gig?
Yeah, I get that. I wrote that above. But after that he will be “established” and it will be other up and comers that will have to swim upstream. He will get a fair shot after that.
Well seeing as
Not only will he have to move into superstar status but Seriously separate himself from the Pujols and Gonzalez 1B types with big market fan backing it’s going to an uphill climb for a Royal. That’s basically all just become a top echelon 1B and out vote big name HOF level guys with large fan bases.
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Feb 10, 2012 11:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You realize you're kind of making the point for them?
It doesn’t matter what the overrated players name is, you’re simply bringing in more examples to back their point.
really? the part where I agreed having a name was important?
Or the part where “small market” players cant start a game and their principle examples are Votto, who never deserved it, losing out to Pujols and Fielder. Both from small to mid markets. And now Mauer from a small market that not only wins but does so even if he is bad.
The way fans view the sport has changed considerably since 2008. ESPN used to be the way most baseball fans consumed the sport , and they are unabashedly biased towards big market teams and big name players. There has been a profound shift in the way baseball is consumed since then, largely driven by blogs and fantasy baseball where stats are more important than recognizable names.
Not gonna happen
If Joe Mauer could barely beat out a washed up Varitek in 2008, a small market Eric Hosmer has basically zero chance to start at 1st base unless he becomes the best player in the game
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Feb 10, 2012 5:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions
There could be a year where a combination of injuries and down years from Pujols, Fielder, A-Gon, and Texiera allows Hosmer to sneak in. If Hosmer develops as expected, it won’t take much a down year from any of those guys to allow him to get in. Of course, this is the All-Star game so meritocracy isn’t much of a consideration.
Kevin Gregg-"You obviously haven't acquired my taste for pitching yet"
Starter maybe, but reserve definitely.
Let’s remember Mark ‘freaking’ Redman made an All-Star team with the Royals. Now I know these aren’t the same Royals teams as he was on but the only other All-Star probables on this team right now are Alex Gordon, Joakim Soria, and Mike Moustakas and it is not like their positions aren’t stacked either so a reserve spot could come as soon as next year.
Then with his competition for starting Teixeira is a notoriously slow starter, Pujols is getting older so who knows what he’ll be doing by years 3-5, and an injury or slow start by one of the other guys puts Hosmer right in the equation for the spot. I don’t think it is too crazy for Hosmer to take a step forward and have his numbers right with these guys.
My first thought was no...
But considering Pujols, Teixeira, Prince, Gonzalez and Cabrera will all be pretty old in five years I could see it happening.
I agree
He could be outperforming these guys in 3 years maybe.
Ray Guilfoyle
www.faketeams.com
www.minorleagueball.com
www.mlbdailydish.com
by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 12, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions
Hosmer as an All-Star?
He had a bad first season in the minors. He’s terrible.
(See below.)
"Hosmer right in between Carter and Alvarez…. what is this list based on? height?" -- okteds, visionary (1/28/10)
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
