Prospect Analysis: Elite Pitching Prospect from 2007
To finish the "learning from old prospect lists" series, I decided to take a look at the elite prospects from 2007. Although we have less data on these guys than with the previous lists, we can at least distinguish the complete busts from the guys who are having/will have successful careers. Remember, for these reports I am only looking at prospects graded with an A or A-.
Homer Bailey: 78 games, 78 starts, 436 innings, 4.35 FIP, peak WAR 1.9, total WAR 4.8. He shows his talent in flashes.
Yovani Gallardo: 118 games, 115 starts, 712 innings, 3.53 FIP, peak WAR 4.6, total WAR 13.4. No complaints here.
Matt Garza: 152 games, 149 starts, 923 innings, 3.98 FIP, peak WAR 5.0, total WAR 14.6. No complaints here.
Luke Hochevar: 100 games, 96 starts, 586 innings, 4.41 FIP, peak WAR 2.3, total WAR 7.4. His rating as an elite prospect was based entirely on scouting reports with no professional data. He's been OK, sort of the American League Mike Pelfrey.
Phil Hughes: 120 games, 71 starts, 444 innings, 4.13 FIP, peak WAR 2.5, total WAR 7.2. He's been reasonably effective when healthy. If he can get through the next year or two without something catastrophic, I still think he can blossom.
Eric Hurley: Five starts, 25 innings, 5.93 FIP. Ruined by injuries.
Clayton Kershaw: 118 games, 116 starts, 716 innings, 3.04 FIP, peak WAR 6.8, total WAR 17.1. No complains here, a Cy Young winner.
Tim Lincecum: 156 games, 155 starts, 1028 innings, 2.93 FIP, peak WAR 8.0, total WAR 27.9. Another Cy Young winner.
Adam Miller: Injuries
Mike Pelfrey: 150 games, 146 starts, 877 innings, 4.24 FIP, peak WAR 3.0, total WAR 8.6. He eats innings.
Of the 10 elite pitching prospects rated for 2007, two of them (Hurley, Miller) were destroyed by injuries. Two (Kershaw, Lincecum) became Cy Young winners. Gallardo and Garza have been quite impressive. Hochevar and Pelfrey have developed into unexciting-but-useful workhorse types, and Bailey and Hughes are in something like an "undecided" category, showing flashes but held back by some issues (command, injuries, etc) which may or may not get better.