Darvish Vs. Moore - 2012 AL ROY
by KismetKid on Jan 19, 2012 1:29 PM EST
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With Yu Darvish signing with the Rangers there could be a real battle for 2012 AL ROY. Right now I see Darvish and Matt Moore of the Tampa Bay Rays as the two favorites. One could argue Miguel Montero of the Seattle Mariners may be a contender - and he may - but his lackluster 2011 minor league numbers coupled with his home ballpark leave significant questions about expectations for his 2012 season. Besides, I simply feel the two pitchers noted above will have better seasons in 2012.
That said - who do you think will win the 2012 AL ROY?
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Darvish
Moore will be great, but people look at wins, and Darvish will log a lot more innings and play on a much better offensive team. I could see their rate stats being pretty close in 2012, with Darvish having a lower K rate than Moore (but still quite high) but roughly cancelled out by a lower walk rate.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 19, 2012 2:01 PM EST reply actions
How many innings is he going to get? 230?
Moore is in line for 200 innings this year. And since people now look at ERA, Moore will be more popular since he pitches in a pitchers park. Case in point: look at Hellickson.
You think they'll have Moore throw 200 innings in his rookie season?
It could be true…but when was the last time ANY rookie pitcher threw that much in a season? I could see him getting over 150, but can’t see him exceeding 175… that’s what Pineda posted and he was a horse.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 19, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
Moore pitched a combined 174.1 innings last year. A normal progression would be 200 IP.
Pineda pitched 171 this year, Darvish has already exceeded that and didn’t look tired. Pineda definitely looked tired. Pineda twice had huge IP jumps and that does scare me. Anyways 200IP definitely isn’t out of the question for Moore.
well, I hope you're right.
I have Moore on my fantasy team! Hoping the Rays don’t try to delay his service clock… they haven’t made a deal yet, AND they’re the Rays, so I’m nervous about that.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 19, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
In all honest I believe he will be starting with the club but ..
The contract doesn’t change team control. Regardless of the contract they have 5 years depending when he is called up. If he is called up midseason the Rays would get an extra season of control. How that affects the option years I’m not sure. But there is an impact.
But I doubt he is anywhere but the majors opening day.
Disagree
Maybe mechanically, but financially it has a huge impact. He has 5 guaranteed years:
2012: $1M
2013: $1M
2014: $1M
2015: $3M
2016: $5M
And 3 option years:
2017: $7M ($2.5M buyout)
2018: $9M ($1M buyout)
2019: $10M ($0.75M buyout)
The 2017 option is almost certainly going to be picked up, so that will get you to 6 seasons of service time. Even if they delay his service time long enough to decline the 2018 option and go to arbitration, do you think they could get a deal done for under $8M (assuming he has pitches even remotely close to what we’re expecting)?
The only way I can see them sending him to the minors is if they feel he needs the seasoning.
yeah, I was only thinking from a technical standpoint
That they would have an extra year of control but based on how the option year works with a high buyout there would be no reason to not pickup the option but still retain control of the player. In some scenarios it’s valid but in this case probably not – I think the salary can only go down 30% from the previous year of 5M so it would be 3.5M plus the 2.5M buyout only saving them 1M. If and only if the previous year was an injury one or terrible. And based on the wording it might also negate the other option years.
I think it depends
On how the team is doing. If they are clearly out of the playoff hunt come late August, they probably look to shut moore down. If they are competing well into September I could see him getting around 170-180ip and then being moved to the bullpen. Tough to say, but I don’t see 200ip for this kid this year. Next year yes, this year, no.
by srbaseball2003 on Jan 20, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
The Rays go to an extra 20%.
It isn’t that hard of a cencept to understand. just look at Hellickson, Price, etc.. as examples.
I think he will be a monster. I watched every start of his and he is awesome. Not without his warts
But his stuff can overcome a lot of it.
I watched just about all of Verlanders starts and he had terrible command. Much worse than Moore but he had the drive to improve. IMO Moore has the better stuff at the same age and if his command improves I believe he will be the best pitcher in baseball, it’s the million dollar question though.
Texas only had 5 more wins than Tampa so I dont see that as a factor
and Darvish pitched on at least an extra day of rest each week so I would be surprised if they either limited his innings or he tired at the end.
Personally I would go with Moore but an argument could be made for Darvish. Just not the argument you made. Moore needs consistency with his curve especially in the zone, he needs to throw his change more. It’s his best pitch. And he will need slightly better command of his fastball. Playing in that division could hurt him. But I also think he has the chance to win the Cy not just compete for it. If he commands that curve he has the best stuff IMO in the AL with the exception of Verlander.
Yes, though I doubt offensive support and wins will play much of a role.
Only a Darvish injury could allow Moore to throw an equivalent or near-equivalent number of innings as Darvish. Not too mention the media circus that will ensue if Darvish pitches that caliber of baseball; by comparative standards, Moore pitching at an equivalent level will do so in relative obscurity. If it comes down to Darvish vs Moore, and it probably won’t (these races almost never pan out as expected heading into a season), Darvish will win going away.
Montero
I wanted to vote for Miguel Montero, but when I got to the poll it was only Jesus on there :)
Moore
Moore is a monster true #1 ace type. Jury’s still out on Darvish, but imo Moore has MUCH more upside and could win the ROY and complete for the Cy Young in 2012.
?
Compete for the Cy Young as in top 3, or top 10? Top 10 I suppose I could see, but he’ll have his speed bumps like anyone else in their first full season.
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Miguel Montero is no rookie.
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by DominicanDandy on Jan 19, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
no he won't
People are getting way ahead of themselves here. We can vie for them in time, but pitchers need some time in the majors to reach that level required for a cy, and Moore is no exception.
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by The Congo Hammer on Jan 19, 2012 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
I see no reason to think he couldn't be a legitimate candidate
Not predicting he’ll win or anything, but it’s conceivable.
Exceptions
I could see Moore being an exception. He looks just that good to me.
As far as speed bumps go, some guys have been great from the start:
Dwight Gooden is the obvious example, with his runner-up CY at 19.
In his rookie season, Mark Prior threw 116.2 innings with a 3.04 xFIP (finished 3rd in CY the year after).
Strasburg put up a 2.04 xFIP in his first 68 IP (2.14 xFIP in 92 IP total).
Other recent guys without near the talent or stuff of Moore have put up impressive years, albeit not CY caliber.
As far as Moore goes, i don’t think he’ll win the CY his rookie year (conquering the AL East as rookie is just too difficult to ask for in my opinion), but I also don’t think it’s inconceivable. If you asked me which Rays starter I think will put up the best numbers this year, I might choose him over Price or Shields.
Strasburg made a huge impact in 2010 before he got hurt
Luckily, Matt Moore has the easiest delivery and arm action that I’ve ever seen from someone who throws that hard.
Strasburg pitched 55 innings in the minors and was on a limit
so there was no chance for him even before the injury.
I like Moore
way more (hehe) than Darvish, but Darvish presumably won’t get coddled the same way Moore will. As such, Darvish could win 20 games for Texas. Not saying that wins matter, but not all the voters have realized that yet.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 20, 2012 11:30 AM EST reply actions
I doubt Darvish pitches many more innings
Moore pitched 175 IP last year and will probably go 200 this year. Darvish, like most Japanese pitchers, pitched every 7th day. That is two extra days of rest. I don’t know how this will affect him but expect Texas to be cautious in the first year as they will want to see how it affects him.
Good
point although I would have my mind blown if I see Moore pitch 200 innings this year.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 20, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
I heard stories about Darvish purposely pitching on 5-6 day rest last year
so I don’t think that’ll be a factor.
Moore
Not necessarily because he’ll be better than Darvish (though he might), but I think if it’s close the voters will go for the guy who came up through the minor leagues rather than the former Japanese professional.
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No ROY for Darvish
I don’t care how good Darvish pitches this year, I don’t think he should win Rookie of the Year award. I remember back when Hideki Matsui was a rookie, many voters didn’t consider him a rookie and therefore gave the award to Angel Berroa.
Granted, Berroa played a more premium position and put up similar numbers. Also, those 17 homers were a fluke, but that’s another story.
I think if Matsui wasn’t a Yankee, he would have won it.
by The Scout on Jan 20, 2012 1:04 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Ichiro won the award. Hideo Nomo won the award. Kaz Sasaki won the award.
Argument = Invalid.
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by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 20, 2012 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
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