Prospects in the Mariners/Yankees-Pineda/Montero Trade

If you rank Montero the same as you do Harper and Trout, and consider the fact Montero is a DH only, what you are really saying is Montero is a better offensive prospect than any other prospect.

Which is beyond belief.

Montero is not an elite prospect.

Perhaps I value pitchers too much, but I’m not one trade a grade A pitcher for a grade A hitter.

Maybe I should rephrase this a bit. Would you trade someone with a reasonable shot at being a front of the rotation hitter for a guy with a reasonable shot of being a DH/cleanup hitter (even if he is one of the best in the league)? This might make more sense if Montero could stick at Catcher, but this isn’t likely. Likewise, I like the guy the Ms gave up more than the one they received. This is at best a wash for Seattle right now and they are weaker long term for it too.

Michael Pineda is going to be a frontline starting pitcher. He definitely has the talent to be a TORP for years pending injury. Meanwhile Jesus Montero is a DH. To pretend that he can be a catcher in the major leagues will be very foolish exercise on the part of Seattle. Cut to the chase and move him to 1st base. Montero’s upside? A Carlos Lee type. Which translates into a solid run producer for years.

What if Montero becomes a first baseman? This would mean he then has some defensive value, even if he is just average. This, coupled with him coming close to his ceiling, should make him an elite prospect. At least in my eyes.

I can’t help but think Montero gets slighted in certain circles because of all the Yankees hate. A high end projection for Montero would be Miguel Cabrera. I really do believe he has a shot of reaching that potential. We shall see. All I’m saying is that if he plays first instead of DH, I think more people should cut him some slack.

The fear for M’s fans is that Montero/Noesi turn into Russ Davis/Sterling Hitchcock
and that Pineda & Campos become Yankee rotation anchors for the rest of the decade. I know it’s not rational but M’s trading history is traditionally spotty. I do know Montero will be a much welcomed RH bat to take some pressure off a very LH heavy lineup core.

His defensive value is effectively the same as a corner OF

Lots of scouts think certain players can’t stick at a position but they end up doing well anyway. Not saying I’m dismissing scouts opinions, but to peg Montero at DH when he’s only 22 is immature. He could easily pick up 3B or a corner OF like Wil Myers and still do fine. Or he might actually stick at C like Seattle’s GM thinks.

The point is he is not 35 year old David Ortiz, and he does have defensive value, even if it’s not at Catcher.

So does this guy join other M’s players as flawed also-rans who get no respect on this site?

Let’s hear the criticism when this guy is raking .950 OPS’s and grinning on the cover of SI.

Ahead is some anecdotes to support my grading of Montero, because a comprehensive analysis would take too long.

- WAR both vastly overrates defense and is an inaccurate reflection of real defensive ability/value. Granderson was instructed to allow Gardner to catch anything he could reach, so Gardner posts a crazy fielding stat (in LF!) that allows him to be on par with Pujols in WAR. A team of 8 Pujols’ would absolutely embarrass a team of 8 Gardners.

A 330 wOBA and 700-ish OPS was credited with equal value as a 385 wOBA and 900-ish OPS because some subjective stat said that his defense in LF made up the difference. Really???

- I believe this stat has lead fans to vastly overrate defense and our ability to measure it. Batted balls, opportunities and position assignment are heavily influenced by human perceptions and biases. Each significantly effects these defensive ratings. Additionally, offense has far more opportunity to effect outcomes than exceptional defense, even if you know how to accurately identify exceptional defense.

- Prospects should be treated like options, valued by the sum of their outcomes times their probability. This is where most us really go wrong. Humans generally underestimate variance, and are extremely biased in the data they choose to incorporate and how each is weighted. (exhibit A – housing market; exhibit B – # of definitive statements about baseball prospects on blogs)

Any big picture analysis will reflect extreme variance from prospects. Given this, it makes sense for prospects rankings to weight probability very heavily, especially those that cater to large audiences like John’s. (the larger the audience, the more teams you cover, the larger the data set, the greater the chance that the odds will play out)

Scouting reports favor Harper. (no explanation needed) Real stats favor Montero. (actually outperformed at higher levels) Even if you are part of the general community that overestimates the predictive value of single A statistics, is it such a big stretch to say that AA and AAA performance are better indicators of future success than scouting reports? Isn’t there enough there in AA and AAA stats to understand the grade, even if you disagree?

Each can be A prospects for different reasons; Harper for his perceived potential, Montero for what he has accomplished. John includes a write up, because it’s challenging to evaluate something as complex as baseball prospects using a single character grading system. The task is made even more challenging when he has to deal with so many different preconceived notions of the way letter grades are supposed to be interpreted.

I can go on, but in an effort to get read, I’ll summarize. My suggestion would be to add another character that puts prospects into different buckets. This way, you lessen the potential to be misinterpreted by those that only have the attention span to accurately process 1 character, as opposed to reading an entire line or 2.

the Yankees got a potential number two starter in Pineda (I’d like to see another half-season like what he did in 011 to become convinced), while the Mariners received a potential impact bat.

I think away getting away from the pressures of being a Yankees’ elite young player Jesus will do better. Even if he’s a sub-par catcher, if he hits 20-30 HRs a year, who cares? Mickey Tettleton, Mike Piazza- anyone? Not comparing Jesus Montero to those guys, just bringing up a few names who were not-so-great defensive catchers but can whack the tar out of the ball.

As for Montero being a grade “A” or “A-” does it really matter?

As fans we tend to forget the old adage about having to give up quality to get quality. Maybe we are just too used to feeling like we must have a perceived advantage in the trade, instead of looking at it as a transaction that meets needs for both sides. As an M’s fan now (36) hours after the fact I can see the logic a bit clearer—Seattle was in dire need of a RH bat. Another LH bat, like a Fielder, would not solve our basic lineup problem, that is we are vulnerable to LHP with no real RH prospects in the pipeline. This trade is an attempt to address that need for Seattle, and we still have Felix in tow.

A, A-, B it is not like these predictions have an ounce of bearing on the players future success. You kids bicker about these letters like they determine your admittance to an Ivy League school. You kids seem to forget that anyone can be a top 8 hitter – you don’t have to be an A grade prospect. Everyone also seems to forget how many of these A-ish grade specs will never earn a job as a MLB regular.

The m’s needed a bat like montero, the yanks needed a sp like pineda and had the pitching depth to do the trade. My only hesitation at all is that I didn’t like that the mariners had to include campos.

And this is water under the bridge, but I always thought the mariners should’ve drafted rendon instead of hultzen. They wouldn’t have had the need to trade for an elite young bat if they had added him to their system during the draft.

Sorry John Sickels and others, but you don’t rate a DH a grade A. Montero can’t run, can’t field and can’t throw. And people need to back off comparing Montero to future Hall of Famer Frank Thomas. My goodness. Montero has less than 200 major league at bats.

He certainly looks promising as a run producer. But you don’t trade one of the brightest young pitchers in baseball for the second coming of Billy Butler. Hence why Seattle is Seattle I guess.

Is Carlos Lee an appropriate comparison when it comes to Montero? Both are complete one-trick ponies who showcase power and the ability to hit for average. I don’t see Montero reaching Thomas level, but that would definitely be his ceiling.

The kid can rake. I don’t care if he’s a dh only. If he reaches his offensive ceiling then that’s an A prospect.

I really like this deal for the Yanks. Not only do they get a potential ace but they also get a high upside arm. Yes, Montero could be a great bat but if he is a DH, that’s not more valuable than a #1-2 starter who has already shown he can be good/great. There are some concerns with Pineda of course as there should be but he is so young and showed fairly good command for a hard thrower and its rare to see that so early in his career. He’s also had a full season to shown what he can do and its pretty good.

Yanks sold high on Montero. I honestly don’t think they would have gotten Montero had he not had a great September as his season in AAA was just “meh”.

From Seattle’s perspective, it’s not so bad either as they need a potential elite bat in the line-up since they struggle to develop them and its hard for them to sign one. They got good pitching in the minors too and even if he is a DH, you still have an elite in the line-up that will help you get wins. I do like it better for Yanks since its tougher to find a potential ace than a great DH bat.

As a Red Sox fan, I’d say if Montero is an A for the Yankees before they trade him for Pineda, and an A- for Mariners when the book comes out, there will be lots of banging my head against the keyboard.