The Michael Pineda/Jesus Montero Trade

But comparing this to the Latos deal, I have to vote Yankees

You trade readiness for upside. Teams do this all the time, and Campos’ upside comes with some risk.

Overall, relative to the current environment baseball is in, I vote the Yankees, but slightly. In an era where young pitchers with some success and high upside are significantly protected and highly valued, I think this is a good deal for them.

But as someone noted above, it’s really a decent deal for both sides. There’s some risk with Pineda and Montero, but one team needed pitching and one team needed hitting, and both guys have elite ceilings, even if both had their own issues (change-up (and perhaps injury concerns) and position). The M’s seem to be thinking that Noesi could step into the rotation and be decent sooner than later.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2012/1/14/2707200/montero-smoak-carp-and-wells-how-it-works

It’s not long, but the gist of it is it has been said the Mariners see Montero as being able to catch, at least to a certain extent. Thus I propose the Carlos Santana treatment, allowing him to stay in the lineup all the time, and how it fits around the other pieces.

The Yankees won this trade on every level. When Mat Latos goes for Alonso, Volquez, Boxberger, and Grandal – and the Mariners have to give up a second top ten prospect to go along with a guy who has no defensive value whatsoever, the Yankees absolutely fleeced them.

I like Montero offensively – agree with everyone that he is going to hit in spades – but the market price for young pitching this season was so much higher and Montero’s value isn’t what it should be because of his defensive ineptitude.

My mind is still blown. Unless Montero somehow sticks at Catcher, which I guess is possible (props to tarheels24 above), I see this as a major win for the Yankees.

Montero was expendable and Pineda wasn’t as much, plus the Mariners gave up Campos as well to get Montero and Noesi (who I don’t like that much).

I like the idea of both teams trading strengths for weaknesses, and that both sides get strong talents makes this one to watch for the next 5 years or so.
With that said, putting a RH hitter in Safeco and a flyball RHP in Yankee Stadium gives this the potential for both teams to be a little disappointed in the results.
They both have the track records that point to better performance than most, but their new stadiums could very well hold them back in the traditional statistical categories that don’t correct for that, and could leave a fair number of fans wanting more.

I know it seems like a cop-out, but that’s the way I feel. Most trades, you can get an idea of present value received and given. In this trade, both players are elite young players. While Pineda has a major league track record, he also carries the inherent injury risk that pitchers, particularly young pitchers, get hurt. He also has yet to develop an offspeed pitch needed to handle lefties in Yankee Stadium. Presently, with no further development, I think he’s a good 3rd starter. If he can make his change a plus pitch, stay healthy, and refine his command a little (he has good control/few walks, but he seemed to hang a few meatballs later on in the season as he tired out), I think he’s a LEGIT Ace (not a Gio Gonzalez “ace”).

As for Montero, there are two questions- 1. Can he pass as a catcher? and 2. Is his bat truly elite or simply good? If the answers are yes and elite, he’s a potential hall of famer. If it’s no and elite, he’s a top-tier 1B/DH. If the answers are yes and good, he’s a solid regular, and if the answers are no and good, he’s a low-end 1B/DH option for a bad offense.

Overall, when factoring risk v. reward… ignoring injury risk, I think Pineda’s a safer bet than Montero. As I said, he’s already a good third starter. Even if he doesn’t develop into a “better” pitcher, you still have a very valuable asset. He’s like a younger, pre-arb AJ Burnett or Brandon Morrow. Burnett and Morrow didn’t develop much in the majors, but Justin Verlander did, and he fits the profile of a great fastball/slider guy, except he developed his secondary stuff and improved his command.

While Montero’s non-injury-related floor is more of a low-end regular, I believe that the odds of him becoming an elite masher are similar to Pineda’s odds of becoming a perennial Cy Young Candidate.

I would imagine that one day, it will be obvious who won this trade. But if anyone says today that either team clearly won the trade, I wouldn’t agree. Fascinating deal, though.

Montero is most likely a DH. We all know the Yanks desperately needed SP. And, as has been said, with the packages that had to be given up for young SP this year, the M’s got fleeced.