NL West not-quite-prospect 1b prospects

by Galt on Jan 10, 2012 3:02 PM EST

IIn an attempt to get a break from the many +1 ranking threads, I figured I'd throw something out there as a quasi "smackdown" though I don't have the time or ability to do a long writeup on any of the players.

With Rizzo now in Chicago, there are four players that are still "basically" rookies who are looking to get meaningful playing time at 1b come 2012. Three of them are in the NL West, and one used to be.

Alonso ranked slightly ahead of Rizzo in the community list, but that was before Alonso left hitter-friendly Cincy and Rizzo moved to hitter-friendly Wrigley. Belt and Goldy aren't rookies anymore, so they weren't ranked.

So how do you rank them? (not just in fantasy - but actual baseball)

Alonso didn't have elite minor league numbers (.293/.370/.466) and showed the least power of any of the four in the minors (~.170 IsoP) (though was great in limited action last year -.330/.398/.545 in 100 PA), but walked at around a 10% clip with solid double powers and didn't strike out much (~15%). He's 24

Goldschmidt absolutely had the most power with a .303 IsoP, his walk (~10%) and K rates (~27%) weren't ideal, but his last year in the minors was amazing with a 92/82 K/BB in 455 AA plate appearances. During 177 PA in the majors last year, the power was there (.225 IsoP), but so were the ks (30%) and walk rate was a little over 11%. He's 23.

Brandon Belt has been moved around a bit, and Huff is still there, but for the sake of argument let's call him a 1b. Really tore up the minors during two years there with a .343/.457/.596 line including a .250 IsoP and nearly identical 17% K and BB rates in 825 PA. Really struggled in the majors last year (though admittedly he didn't have consistent playing time). He had a 27% K rate and a 9.5% walk rate. He did hit 9 homers in 209 PA for a .190 IsoP. He's 23.

Rizzo's .296/.366/.514 minor league line was really pulled up last year (in the PCL) with a .331/.404/.652. Prior to last year, he had a .170 IsoP, and last year brought it up to .220. He had a walk rate just under 10% in the minors and a 21% k rate. He really struggled last year with a 30% k rate and 10 XBH (including one homer) in 153 PA. Though he did have a 14% walk rate. He is also the youngest of the group at only 21

So how would rank them moving forward for the next 5 or so years?

I think I'd probably go Belt, Goldsmidt, Rizzo, Alonso. I really like Belt's on base ability over Goldy's extra power potential since Goldy's power comes with a risk of 25-30% k rates.

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I'd go

Belt, Alonso, Goldscmidt, Rizzo

go long with extenze...i do

by angelsownredsux on Jan 10, 2012 3:19 PM EST reply actions

Goldschmidt, Belt, Alonso, Rizzo

I don’t think Rizzo will have a significant career in the major leagues at any point. I am not giving up on him based on his numbers, I really do not like his swing.

by LetsGoMets413 on Jan 10, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

Belt, Goldschmidt, Alonso, Rizzo

for me

Goldy’s strikeout rates still worry me

by blue bulldog on Jan 10, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

Belt, Alonso, Goldschmidt, Rizzo

by todd94015 on Jan 10, 2012 7:28 PM EST up reply actions

by the title

…I thought it was going to be a piece on “non-prospect” 1B types (i.e. Matt Clark of the padres)…

-peter

by PeterF on Jan 10, 2012 7:07 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions

Ranking

- Paul Goldschmidt
- Yonder Alonso
- Brandon Belt
- Tony Rizzo

Tough to go with anyone else at the top. Alonso & Belt would be close & I like the approaches of both, both I think Alonso might put up the prettier slash lines.

by Matt0330 on Jan 11, 2012 9:17 AM EST reply actions

Rank

Belt
Alonso
Rizzo
Goldschmidt

I’m just not convinced Goldschmidt will be much of a player in MLB. His K rate coupled with the slow looping swing does not give me warm fuzzies that he will make enough contact. I guess Mark Reynolds carved out a nice little career with similar issues, but he also was able to play a passable 3B for a few years.

The fact that SD chose to acquire Alonso and keep him instead of Rizzo tells me all I need to know regarding those two. Let’s face it – teams know their players better than any of us do.

I love Belt’s skill set. Now it is just up to the Giants brass to not jerk him around like they did last year. They need to find a way to get him regular ABs in the bigs. Another year like 2011 and I will start to get worried that it might affect his overall development.

by guru4u on Jan 11, 2012 10:37 AM EST reply actions

"the slow looping swing"

by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 11, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions

If you're disputing that

I concur completely but good luck, my friend.

by Matt0330 on Jan 11, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

I just have no idea what to make of Goldshmidt

I’m just not sure what will happen as teams get more information on him. Early on he was having a ton of trouble making contact on fastballs, posting a swinging strike rate of over 20% for an extended period IIRC. He seemed to adjust by cheating for the fastballs, but it left him with bad whiff rates on both sliders and changeups. I believe 6 of his 8 HR were hit off 4 seam fastballs as well, so he struggles to hit much of anything else for power (cursory look of his spray charts by pitch type shows this goes beyond just HRs as well). If he can consistently figure out when to sit fastball he could still be a great hitter, but if he guesses wrong a large percentage of the time he could be in a lot of trouble. Should be one of the more interesting young players to watch.

by nixa37 on Jan 11, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

'I’m just not sure what will happen as teams get more information on him'

Funny, I see this the other way (as somebody who saw a large number of Paul Goldschmidt’s PAs/innings) as I feel that Goldschmidt already began to adapt immensely in his extremely small major league (regular season & postseason) sample. I think that his pitch recognition borders on terrific from what I’ve seen so I disagree with the theory that he’s ‘cheating FB or whatever’ but que sera times 2. I think that intelligence, malleability & sheer will to improve are tough to quantify & Goldschmidt’s strides since even 2010 seem actual to me (in my opinion, he’s pretty good defensively too). The BBs (once he got comfortable, his approach really started shining through), natural power (to all fields), character, etc make this guy a pretty safe bet to be pretty good but I think we have differences in terms of how we view this player. We shall see.

by Matt0330 on Jan 11, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions

There is no way I'm buying he's recognizing pitches well

I’m not buying that with a guy who struggles to hit any sort of off-speed pitch well.

As for cheating on fastballs, its a theory as much as anything. I’m not really sure how else to make sense of his numbers. He went from just awful whiff rates against fastballs to one that’s around average, but at the same time he started struggling a more with sliders and changes.

For whatever reason, teams started throwing him fewer of those pitches even as it became more clear they were what he struggled with most. That’s what has me worried about what will happen when teams get more info on him.

Besides, I’m always wary of guys who suddenly start looking better in September, as pitching quality tends to drop. Obviously its tough to tell with Goldschmidt if that was the cause of his better September as that’s also about the time he should have been getting adjusted to the majors.

by nixa37 on Jan 11, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Comps

if you look at Goldschmidt’s plate discipline profile from last year, and you think that’s what he’s going to be going forward, he looks extremely similar to Carlos Pena. both have abysmally low contact percentages, and both have very high swinging strike rates. both also have very good power (ISO’s ranging between 200-250). even defensively, i can imagine similar values.

at the end of the day, i think as a Dback fan, if Goldy turns out to be a righty version of Carlos Pena, we’ll be pretty happy. 2-3 WAR 1B are very valuable, especially if they are playing at minimum wage. also, the Dbacks have rarely had a good 1B option in the past few years.

the dream of course, is for Goldy to turn into a 4-5 WAR 1B. in order for that to occur, he’s going to need to adjust further and limit his strikeouts. really, you’re pegging your hopes on the fact that the dude made tremendous adjustments between 2010 and 2011, and on the reports that his makeup is off the charts in terms of work ethic and baseball smarts. you hope that the 23 year old stats are the baseline, and his work ethic and smarts allow him to continue to improve on that.

obviously the optimistic Dbacks fan in me hopes he can reach that 4-5 WAR level. but the saber in me realizes that it’s not likely, and i’d be pretty satisfied if he can hold his own and be a 2-3 WAR guy in the three years before we have to worry about serious arb raises.

by blue bulldog on Jan 11, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions