Prospect of the Day: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Colorado Rockies
by John Sickels on Sep 9, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
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Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Colorado Rockies
It was a big summer for Drew Pomeranz: he was traded from Cleveland to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez, then he had an appendectomy. Now, he's starting for the Rockies on Sunday.
Drew Pomeranz was a starting pitcher for three years at the University of Mississippi. He was solid as a freshman (4.16 ERA, 81/30 K/BB in 71 innings), quite good as a sophomore (3.40 ERA, 124/37 K/BB in 95 innings), and superb as a junior (2.24 ERA, 139/49 K/BB in 100 innings), earning a spot as the fifth-overall pick in the 2010 draft. The Indians selected him with the idea that he could become a number one or two starter for the Tribe, and indeed he did, although perhaps not quite in the way originally envisioned: he was a big part of the package that brought Ubaldo Jimenez east from the mountains to the shores of Lake Erie.
His field performance this year was excellent: he posted a 1.87 ERA with a 95/32 K/BB in 77 innings for High-A Kinston. Promoted to Double-A Akron shortly before the trade, he posted a 17/9 K/BB in 14 innings with a 2.57 ERA. After the trade, he made one start for Double-A Tulsa, before going down with an appendectomy. It was feared he would miss the rest of the year, but he came back remarkably quickly, making a three-inning outing for the Drillers on September 5th. He is expected to start for the Rockies this coming Sunday.
Overall, he posted a 1.78 ERA with a 119/38 K/BB in 101 innings this year, allowing just 68 hits, three homers, and a .189 average against.
Pomeranz is more than just gaudy statistics, of course. He's got impressive size at 6-5, 230 pounds. His delivery is deceptive and he repeats it well. His fastball operates at 91-95 MPH, but even on days when he doesn't have peak velocity, the pitch has a lot of movement, making it a genuine plus offering. His breaking ball, a knucklecurve, is also excellent, giving him two overpowering pitches.
He didn't use his changeup much in college but is gradually working it into his arsenal in pro ball. He could still use more experience with it, and it isn't as good as the fastball and breaking ball at this point. However, his command is quite good for a young power pitcher, and even if his changeup is just average, the other two pitches will be enough for him to succeed.
Although Pomeranz has just a handful of innings in Double-A, he's done enough this year to make me quite optimistic about his future, and I can understand why the Rockies want to take an immediate look at him. Assuming he stays healthy and avoids unexpected command lapses, he profiles as a number two starter at least. If his changeup develops to its maximum potential, he can be a genuine number one rotation anchor in the mode of Cliff Lee or Clayton Kershaw.
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Coors Field
I’m a bit concerned on the effect that Coors field will have on him. Particularly because Coors tends to make breaking balls move less. If that makes his curve less effective, thats really going to impact what he does.
are you perpetuating the myth of the myth?
Effect
Since the pitcher may be throwing 1 mph faster at Coors Field, you might think he has the advantage over the hitter. In fact, hitters have the edge at high altitude, because the ball doesn’t break as much. This is due to the Magnus effect - the force that causes a curveball to bend and a fastball to hop. The Magnus effect is an atmospheric effect that works on a ball thrown with backspin or sidespin - every pitch except a knuckleball - and creates movement on that pitch. In air that is less dense, the Magnus effect is less pronounced, and the ball curves and hops less. It has been estimated that a fastball will hop about an inch less, a curveball will bend about 20 percent less and a knuckleball will dive about 20 percent less at high altitude.
For in depth fantasy analysis be sure to visit the Hawk Fantasy Sports site @ www.HawkBall.com
all of those "estimates" are great
but I don’t see any data that backs it up.
On the other hand, there actually IS pitch f/x data that backs up biondino’s claim, that fastballs move less and curves are ok. Read Carlos Gonzalez, God on the Mountain?
The Rockies’ Front Office has figured this out as well. They continue to go after pitchers that use curveballs as a significant part of their repetoire. JDLR, Hammel, Pomeranz, and they even tried to get Wandy. They are clearly not concerned about the effect of altitude on curveballs.
by black_knight101 on Sep 9, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Its just common sense Claymore,
the air is thinner, therefore their is less friction for the spinning ball to bite into. They can humidor all the balls they want to there, but they cant change the atmospheric pressure. they cant change the air unless they completely enclose the stadium. Let me know when they do that.
So I assume Pomeranz at least maintains his B+ grade
do you see him becoming an A- or even A?
~ Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too ~
Pomeranz
I too have been concerned with Pomeranz’s breaking ball of choice – wondering how it will play at altitude. I have, however, seen outstanding curves – think Darren Holmes – but over the course of a season or seasons, as a starter, I believe if a pitcher has outstanding control and command, can spot the fastball and then have a high-effect change, mix in a hard slider, that a pitcher can succeed. Colorado has not had the big pitcher like Pomeranz who throws as hard as him either who also could consistently throw strikes.
Optimistic, cautiously, about him.
Thank you for the write-up John. What you wrote about Kershaw and Lee, making those comps (I too see a Lee comp) is exciting to think about.
Colorado Rockies Prospects Report (google)
&
Rockies Analyst
I had Pom at 88-90 touching 92 in his AA debut before the deal
Good curve but will have to throw his fastball low in order to better than a 3.
you keep saying that, but there is substantial evidence to believe he can and does throw harder than that
I’m not the biggest Pomeranz fan you’ll find, but that velocity sounds more like the exception than the rule.
Love this kid.
If the Mets lose Reyes, go into full-on rebuild mode, and make Wright available, I’d love to get this guy.
The Rockies wouldn't deal him for one year of Wright
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
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