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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

BA Cal League Top 20

1. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Visalia Rawhide (Diamondbacks)
2. Jedd Gyorko, 3b, Lake Elsinore Storm (Padres)
3. Gary Brown, of, San Jose Giants
4. Zack Wheeler, rhp, San Jose Giants
5. Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Lancaster Jethawks (Astros)
6. Nolan Arenado, 3b, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
7. Michael Choice, of, Stockton Ports (Athletics)
8. Allen Webster, rhp, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Dodgers)
9. Chad Bettis, rhp, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
10. Yasmani Grandal, c, Bakersfield Blaze (Reds)
11. Tommy Joseph, c, San Jose (Giants)
12. Nick Franklin, ss/2b, High Desert (Mariners)
13. Jean Segura, ss, Inland Empire (Angels)
14. Reymond Fuentes, of, Lake Elsinore (Padres)
15. Jose Altuve, 2b, Lancaster (Astros)
16. Matt Davidson, 1b/3b, Visalia (Diamondbacks)
17. Chris Dominguez, 3b, San Jose (Giants)
18. Johnny Hellweg, rhp, Inland Empire (Angels)
19. Chris Owings, ss, Visalia (Diamondbacks)
20. Kent Matthes, of, Modesto (Rockies)

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612433.html

Comment 181 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Prospect Notes, March 22, 2012

Mar 2012 by John Sickels - 13 comments

Comments

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It’s an OK list, although I don’t know how someone like Chris Dominguez gets rated higher than Rincon. E. Rincon has better stats, better plate discipline and is four years younger.

by bolton on Sep 30, 2011 3:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Grandal seems low to me

http://bullpenbanter.com

RIP Randy "Macho Man" Savage

by gatling on Sep 30, 2011 3:09 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

 IMO, Brown is Juan Pierre 2.0 and Wheeler is way too raw to warrant ranking either higher than Grandal. Above average defensive, switch-hitting catchers, with a plus hit-tool are a pretty rare breed. When one succeeds so greatly at A+ during their first full-season, I have to believe they should be ranked much higher on this list.

by wanderinredsfan on Sep 30, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

No offense

 . . . but, get real! A cursory glance at the numbers and videio ion Brown shows that he has quite a bit more pop in the barrel than jaun Pierrs. Besides Brown is a white dude who bats from the right side. Are you trying to make the worst comp ever or, what Buddy? :)

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Watched him extensively this season. Definitely not top-5 in the league.

He has the speed, good contact, average at best arm, and little true power. His power numbers are exaggerated by a few CAL league ballparks (Bakersfield, Lancaster, High Desert) and his speed stretching hits to triples and inside-the-park homeruns.

I see Juan Pierre as a ceiling; not a slight, just my opinion. Sorry if that offends your ‘cursory glance at the numbers and videio’.

by wanderinredsfan on Sep 30, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok

Fair enough, my appolgies

I disagree with you on his power though. It certainly was inflated by the league but, its still more than what Jaun Pierre has. I’ve seen Brown play a lot too.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brown and Pierre

I don’t see the comparison.

Pierre’s minor league totals: 1452 PA, 54 2B, 12 3B, 1 HR, triple slash 331/379/393

Ballpark factors are 3-yr weighted from 2010 , courtesy BTF http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_minor_league_park_multipliers/

I only found a mention of one ISTPHR, which was his first HR, on 4/23.
Four of his HRs were in parks with factors > 1.03, three in parks you mentioned and the fourth in Stockton.

Date Park Factor HR
4/23/2011 Visala Rawhides 1.03 1
5/5/2011 Visala Rawhides 1.03 1
5/13/2011 San Jose Giants 1.01 1
5/20/2011 Modesto Nuts 0.77 1
5/22/2011 Stockton Ports 1.16 1
6/3/2011 San Jose Giants 1.01 1
7/5/2011 San Jose Giants 1.01 1
7/20/2011 Bakersfield 1.10 1
8/5/2011 High Desert Mavs 1.31 1
8/13/2011 Lancaster Jayhawks 1.22 1
8/25/2011 San Jose Giants 1.01 2
9/2/2011 San Jose Giants 1.01 1
9/4/2011 San Jose Giants 1.01 1

by slacker george on Sep 30, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry I even mentioned Pierre....

I was just merely pointing out that Brown reminds me of players similar to Pierre, or Mookie Wilson, or CoCo Crisp, or Michael Bourn, or Wily Taveras, or Willie McGee, or Mickey Rivers, or Bake McBride, etc., etc.,

Basically, guys who have good careers as rangy outfielders with good speed and contact skills, but who should never be relied upon for putting up double digit homers in a season….at least not consistently.

IMO, Brown just doesn’t have the ceiling of say a Hunter Pence, or Jacoby Ellsbury, or Curtis Granderson, or Chris Young, or Shane Victorino, or Steve Findley, or Devon White, or Cesar Cedeno, or Amos Otis, etc., etc.

by wanderinredsfan on Oct 1, 2011 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but Granderson, Victorino, Finley, and Ellsbury didn’t have the ceiling of Granderson, Victorino, Finley, and Ellsbury when they were in the minors. Players can add power, sometimes surprisingly so. If you are going to bet that Brown becomes a productive major leaguer, he could be Pierre, or he could be Ellsbury. I personally think he will blow Pierre’s power out of the water (which isn’t hard, 10 HR a year will do that).

by cookiedabookie on Oct 1, 2011 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

I knew sonmeone would take offense

Scouts actually make comps to give a visual image of a player that others haven’t seen. They may actually compare a black player to a black player or vice versa – and especially a guy who bats on the same side to another one who bats on the same side.

i don’t care that he is white, I was pleasantly surprised :)

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

t'was the joke

"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi

by CaptainCanuck on Sep 30, 2011 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

i laughed for some reason when i read this comment

to a random person on the street, it’s like you’re comparing two colors

by blue bulldog on Sep 30, 2011 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

WTF? Never said it wasn't.

Furthermore, I think we all know that catchers take longer to develop/acclimate than any other position, thus early success is something to take note of. It’s exactly why Buster Posey’s and Matt Witers’ early success was so impressive and a great bell-weather of things to come. It’s also why folks should not get overly concerned with early struggles from players like Travis D’Arnaud, Devin Mesoraco, or Tony Sanchez. Instant success by a catching prospect is a rare thing.

by wanderinredsfan on Sep 30, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Matt Davidson feels way too low

As does Jose Atulve who I think will be a good big leaguer.

Also, I’d go Nolan Arenado pretty easily over over Jedd Gyorko but the people who compile these lists are (obviously) or at least should be more in tune with the ‘pulse’ of the league than I. I feel like Jonathan Singleton has a good chance to be the best player of the grouping here in a number of years – I still really like him.

by Matt0330 on Sep 30, 2011 3:10 PM EDT reply actions  

well, if you factor in league performance

Arenado was pretty good, but Gyorko’s Cal League numbers were otherworldly.

by mrkupe on Sep 30, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure

 . and if you factor in position value, age relative to league, and well, just the numbers, Altuve was better i think.

Arenado is 2 and a half years younger than Gyorko. I will easily take Arrenado’s. that is not a tough call at all.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

if Matt Davidson

can stick at 3B and be like -0.5 WAR on defense or better there, then he’d be insta-Top 100 for me

by blue bulldog on Sep 30, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

big IF

he looked bad at first, didn’t even get a look at him at third.

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 30, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

was pretty much unimpressed by Davidson

at the field and at the plate. I saw a lot of K’s, and not a lot of good at bats. . .was expecting more.

by SoCalSoxFan on Sep 30, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

i agree this is a big if

BA seems much more confident that he can stick at 3B than other reports (at least, the guy who answered my question in the chat today seemed pretty confident)

i’m less worried about the bat for now. he’s young, and will have all the opportunity and time to cut the K’s.

just curious. did you see him at all after the date on the video posted below?

by blue bulldog on Sep 30, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw him later in the year too

my issues with him are more than just will he hit or be a K factory. He just doesn’t have great baseball actions for me, and, as you can see in the video he was just kind of f’ing around instead of working to get better. Some have noted he has soft hands, but I saw a lot of stabbing.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

His work ethic is just fine

What you saw in warmups is hardly an accurate indicator of his desire to get better. Nobody but the org sees most of the work he puts in, and the org clearly thinks he can improve enough to stick at third, because it’s moving everybody else off the position to get him there (moved Wheeler to 1B in playoffs for Davidson, moving Borch to LF).

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 3, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

what about BA's tools rankings?

do those even matter?

supposedly Wheeler was the best defensive 3B in the Southern League…

by blue bulldog on Oct 3, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

I still wouldn’t read anything into that one small video clip.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 4, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

when

do they do this work during the season? I’ve worked for a minor league team and there isn’t a ton of work going on before BP. If there is a roving instructor in town, they may work on bunting, or base running, but it’s usually fielding ground balls and extra BP or cage work.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 5, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

at the top

I’d probably go skaggs, wheeler, brown. Brown seems to be getting knocked a lot b/c of the power, and comparing him to Pierre, but if he can walk a little more than Pierre, that’s a pretty solid and valuable guy to have.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with this. I wasn’t a huge fan of Gyorko at #2. Too many questions about position at this point, and I’m not sure he’ll hit enough for 1B or run well enough for LF.

by limozeen on Oct 1, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

BA scouting reports

Tyler Skaggs – Three plus pitches? Is that for real? How many prospects in the minors have three plus pitches?

Matt Davidson – “While he doesn’t have a ton of range at third base, Davidson has soft hands, good feet and a strong, accurate arm.” That sounds awfully like BA expects Davidson to be able to stick at 3B.

Chris Owings – “He generates plenty of bat speed with a compact swing and can drive the ball all fields. He has good power for a player his size and regularly shows it off in batting practice…He has the arm strength and range to eventually become a big league shortstop, but he committed 32 errors—many the result of getting to balls out of the reach of other players.”

I just don’t know if these reports are over-optimistic, or if these guys are really that good. I feel like BA is just going to get me excited, and then I’ll be let down :(

by blue bulldog on Sep 30, 2011 3:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Davidson

He’d better because, he is not hitting enough.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

60 XBH as a 20-year-old in Hi-A?

Yeah, it’s the CAL, but I’m definitely not worried about the bat. This is the same guy who OPS’d .829 in the MWL as a teenager a year ago. That’s a heck of a bat, and I don’t think the bat has truly regressed.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 30, 2011 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Crap, was going by season #'s rather than just MWL numbers. :-P

All the better.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 3, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

BA seems to give out plus grades on pitches a little too often

Not that surprised Skaggs stuff is supposedly better than previous reports though. I think he’ll move up lists pretty quickly this offseason.

by nixa37 on Sep 30, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hellweg

Anything interesting in his report?

by gogotabata on Sep 30, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

i don't know anything about this guy

but apparently he sits mid-90s and can go up to 99. BA thinks he could be a groundball machine because the fastball has sink.

the secondaries don’t sound great though.

by blue bulldog on Sep 30, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hellweg

I like him. When he is on, he is dominant. Was sitting 95/96. In one outing he completely lost the command though. The two main keys (for me) is refining the command and developing the CH, but the upside is there.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

hellweg is the truth

at this point next year he will either be a top 15-20 guy (overall) or mostly written off. upside is enormous, like ace level upside…

by DeathSpeculum on Oct 4, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

hey bb

Sean Burroughs 2011 BB%: 2.6.%
Chris Owings 2011 BB%: 2.7%

lol

I realize it’s not really fair to compare guys to one of the worst players in the majors given that Owings is only 20, but I just find it amusing how hilarious that looks. That’s just how bad his plate discipline is.

"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi

by CaptainCanuck on Sep 30, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

trust me, i know :(

i like Owings because he has upside

but damn that plate discipline is ugly…….makes me so happy when i scan daily box scores and see a walk…..

by blue bulldog on Sep 30, 2011 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

And he just turned 20.

One of the youngest guys in the league. A true shortstop with a potential plus bat who even has made it to that level as a teenager is impressive.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 30, 2011 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

though a .662 OPS in the Cal League isn't

I realize he’s only 20, but I don’t have high hopes for an undersized middle infielder who really doesn’t have that much pop overall, gets mixed reviews on his defense, and has comparable plate discipline to Sean freakin’ Burroughs, of all people.

"If you find a man or woman who sticks around after you tell them "I may be a demented horse, but I know CPR," you marry them. No questions asked." - kishi

by CaptainCanuck on Sep 30, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Never said there isn't a long way to go

But the tools are there, and I’m not sure where the “doesn’t have much pop” comes from. Sure, he’s not going to slug like a left fielder, but he definitely has plus power potential for his position.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 3, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jose Altuve

 . . . at 15 is a . . . ! And is . . . ! I don’t want to say a joke, or that it is absurd simply because I don’t understand it but, sorry, it is :)

He held his own in the big leagues, for chist sakes. I’m glad we don’t have to take these lists seriously becasue the players on them are, you know, interchaangeable. Why make a list then? When I make a list it means that player 1 is better than player 2, who is better than player 3, etc.

How in the heck is one of the best players in the TYexas League the 15th best prospect in the Cal League? Does that make sense? I wish I was playing in a fabntasy league with a guy who thought that Jedd Gyrko – god bless him, nothing against him – was a better prospect than Jose! Gotta chuckle at that one.

Jose towered over the league like Joe Morgan did the NL in the 70’s. Its the exact sdame thing with Oscar Taveras, I guess his numbers were too good to register in the brain or something?

Go ahead folks, chime in and try to tell me that Altuve doesn’t have good “scouting reports”

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 4:01 PM EDT reply actions  

My list

1 Jose Altuve: The best player, and best prospect in this league. I dfon’t care if he is 4 feet tall.
2 Tyler Skaggs: A stud, and a pitching prodigy at age 20.
3 Nolan Arenado: Not only is Arenado a better prospect than Gyrko, he’s a LOT better. Lets see Gyrko put up this season three years ago – miles of differtence there. More xbh’s than k’s!
4 Nick Franklin: I don’t care that much about his hitting this year, he was working on taking pitches and playing better SS, hit in AA, and was 20. Write him off at your peril.
5 Jon Singleton: He hits, can take a pitch, and is 20 – the power will come
6 Zach Wheeler: A hell of an arm, could be higher
7 Yasmani Grandal: he could easily be higher with the way he backed up his performance in AA
8 Jean Segura: A lost year to injuries but still a nice, up the middle prospect
9 John Hellweg: Huge guy, with huge arm
10 Chad Bettis and Allen Webster

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Frack

Forgot Gary Brown. I love him but, I’d put him 8th, just barely behind Grandal.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

That would be my exact same list…except with Choice above Brown, Altuve at 10, and Franklin 2nd behind Skaggs.

by notsukao on Sep 30, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

So…completely different!

by dbreer23 on Sep 30, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

my list

1. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Visalia Rawhide (Diamondbacks)
2. Zack Wheeler, rhp, San Jose Giants
3. Nolan Arenado, 3b, Modesto Nuts (Rockies)
4. Gary Brown, of, San Jose Giants
5. Jedd Gyorko, 3b, Lake Elsinore Storm (Padres)
6. Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Lancaster Jethawks (Astros)
7. Michael Choice, of, Stockton Ports (Athletics)
8. Nick Franklin, ss/2b, High Desert (Mariners)
9. Johnny Hellweg, rhp, Inland Empire (Angels)
10. Yasmani Grandal, c, Bakersfield Blaze (Reds)
11. Jose Altuve, 2b, Lancaster (Astros)
12. Allen Webster, rhp, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Dodgers)
13. Jean Segura, ss, Inland Empire (Angels)

by gogotabata on Sep 30, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why?

Why would you like the 23 year old Gyroko, better than the 21 year old Altuve, when Altuve hit just as well as Gyroko – moved to AA and outhit him there (by a long, long ways) – then moved to big leaguyes and looked like a pretty good player there

All of this while being a better runner and a better defensive player. Let me guess – the only real logical answer – height?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

How about ceiling?

Altuve’s a nice guy to have, but he had an 80 wRC+ in over 200 PA’s in the big leagues this year. I’m not sure how 0.3 fWAR in 53 games is looking “like a pretty good player there.” That’s pretty bad. Like it or not, it’s hard to know that there’s any power projection left with his frame, so he needs to draw a lot more walks than his 2.1% walk rate in his big-league sample this year.

Minor-league numbers are great, but some guys’ number project more cleanly than others, and scouts exist for a reason.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 30, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Whatever

You show me ANY evidence that you spoke to ANY scout who can say one nad word aout Altuve. I’m tired of that argument. For all you know, there are huindreds of scouts who love the kid.

I do not lookm at his major league numbers like you look at them at all. He showed a lot actually. He freaking reached the big l;eague for crisakes and, played well for the most part. He puts the bat on ball – will have plenty of power for a second baseman – can run, field, throw, and turn the double play – and walked at a decent enough clip in the minors for a .327 hitter.

Scouts do not exist to run down a kid with a strong, athletic, agile body who is young and has the ability of a kid like that. I’m going to buy any ofthat nonsense.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't really have any evidence of any conversations

but I have spoken to some scouts, and there is a lot more likes than there are loves on Altuve

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 2, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good grief, you make it seem like I hate the guy.

Clearly, there were plenty of guys at BA who liked a lot of other players in that league more than Altuve. I’m simply pointing out the reasons why that’s completely defensible, and this attitude that some people are espousing that it’s utterly defenseless to put people ahead of Altuve is ridiculous when there are reasons to question the guy.

I like him as a prospect, and am in no way betting against the guy. I just understand his ranking is all.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 3, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

rly?

Gee, I wonder how Dustin Pedroia’s first 200 MLB PA’s went.

You’re awfully harsh on a kid who started the year in A ball, IMO. If nothing changes after another 600 PA next year then sure, I’m on board with what you’re saying.

http://rswanzey.blogspot.com

by rswanzey on Oct 1, 2011 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

He is still young, getting his feet wet. I agree his BB rate needs to increase if he wants any chance of long-term success. However, I don’t think he will have average power for a 2b, at least not sustainably. Average ISO for second base (minimum 500 PA in 2011) would be about .170, right in between Pedroia and Espinosa. That seems a bit much to expect, I would project him more around a .100 ISO, which if he can put up a .300+ BA and a better walk rate would make him very valuable. If he can do that remains to be seen, but he is one of my favorite young players to follow.

by cookiedabookie on Oct 1, 2011 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Man

I’m telling you, you are going to be wrong about that. He has hit 27 homers the past two seasons, and plenty of doubles and triples to boot. I’d say that he is going to be a consistenrt .300 hitter with closer to around a .150 ISO. He is also capable of hitting much more than .300 in some years.

His record is certainly not that of the kind of player who ISO/s .100. That doesn’t make much sense, I don’t think.

By the way, aren’t Pedroia and Espinosa near the TOP in ISO?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not really near the top

Cano, Kinsler, Uggla, Zobrist, Weeks, Johnson, and Kendrick were the top 7.

by nixa37 on Oct 1, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

.150 is still below average for starting second basemen

so I still would disagree with the “plenty of power” you predict. Again, I really like Altuve, and hope he proves me wrong, but I am just not seeing him as an elite 2b right now, not until his BB-rate and power come up.

by cookiedabookie on Oct 1, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is almost nothing

about Altuve that says he has elite ability, and it’s ridiculous that his boosters can’t be satisfied with his simply being decent. Considering the deck that’s stacked against players of his height, profiling as an every day 2B is a coup.

by blackoutyears on Oct 1, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll have to disagree

His batting line in the Cal suggests it .408 .451 .606
His batting line in the TL suggests it .361 .388 .569
Hios age relative to these performances suggests it
His performance last year in th SAL suggests it
His big league performance even suggests it to me.
I see no odds against him in connection to his height at all.

Thats a lot more than almost nothing I’d say.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Like I give a shit

what you think about anything. lol

There’s nothing, having seen him play, that suggest any elite ability. Since I have nothing invested in him, and you have everything to lose thanks to your ridiculous OTT season-long jerkfest, I’ll stand by my objective opinion.

Of course there are odds against him based on height, which is why it’s been constantly referenced in every discussion of him as a prospect his entire career. Is English your second language?

by blackoutyears on Oct 2, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol

there is some inherent irony

when you say “like i give a shit what you think about anything” and yet consistently choose to reply to comments he makes, while addressing him

by blue bulldog on Oct 3, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not really

It’s his agreement or disagreement that I could give a shit about. I very much give a shit that he be

by blackoutyears on Oct 3, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

called out

on his myriad contradictions and irrationalities. The ratio of posts to his actual usefulness is stark, and he’s easily the most shamelessly mediocre intellect I’ve ever encountered here. This community can be a home to rational, enlightened discussion, or it can be overrun by casejud’s ilk.

by blackoutyears on Oct 3, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

And I'm

to take lessons in irony from Mr. Harsh Is A Relative Term I Think You’re Being A Little Harsh? lol

by blackoutyears on Oct 3, 2011 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

lol....

i already anticipated this response

which is why i didn’t say your statement was completely illogical. just that “there is some inherent irony.”

my suggestion is that you read more carefully in the future, and be less defensive. at the end of the day, it’s just an online dialogue. no need to insult others so readily, nor feel insulted so readily.

as for the “harsh” thing, i tried to respond to your comment on the other thread, but i’m not sure if you saw it. i think it’s pretty obvious that any adjective like harsh is meant to be a relative term. i think then, that it’s equally obvious i was implying that gat was being too harsh on Barton relative to other prospects (and even major league players).

honestly though, this isn’t the type of argument i feel is valuable enough for me from a learning perspective to devote a lot of time or energy to. so i guess, if it makes you happier to think of me as being contradictory about the term “harsh”, feel free and continue to fire away.

by blue bulldog on Oct 3, 2011 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

which is why i didn’t say your statement was completely illogical

Your grasp of logic is far more tenuous than you believe, which is amusing considering your self-alleged superiority in that regard. And it’s not about my happiness; it’s inherently contradictory. If it makes you “happier” to try to wriggle off the hook by making this about me instead of owning it, then “feel free”. lol

Learning perspective. lol

by blackoutyears on Oct 3, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

hahaha

maybe you’re right. maybe my logic is far more tenuous than i believe.

thankfully for me the market at large doesn’t have the same assessment of my abilities that you do.

as for your “inherently contradictory” claim….well if you still can’t figure out why my statement wasn’t “inherently contradictory” then it’s not worth further explanation. i don’t get paid to teach you logic. the conversation was fun while it lasted, but my marginal utility is beginning to slip below my marginal cost.

good luck sir.

by blue bulldog on Oct 3, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

blah blah blah blah

my vagina is bigger than your vagina… blah blah…

what are you asshats blathering about? you really have nothing better to do than senselessly attack each other with dozens of meaningless drivel-filled posts? crap like this makes me not want to even bother scrolling through these posts. perhaps y’all could use a hobby that may better unleash all this aggression. like knitting

by DeathSpeculum on Oct 4, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I find this comment

Incredibly contradictory and humorous. Glad you took the time to mindlessly blather about how much you dislike mindless blathering :-)

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 4, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's nobody denying he's a great minor-league hitter

But his big-league performance of an 80 wRC+ does not suggest elite ability. Saying it does is absurd.

Regular second basemen who posted higher wRC+ totals: Pedroia, Cano, Zobrist, Kinsler, Weeks, Kendrick, Phillips, Uggla, Espinosa, Carroll, Walker, Johnson, Infante, Andino. So unless there are 14 regular second basemen with elite hitting ability, Altuve’s big-league numbers do not suggest such a skill.

Altuve’s a great player to have – he’ll be a useful everyday player making minimum salary for at least two more full seasons. But suggesting that his big-league stint this year suggested that he’ll be an elite player is foolhardy.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 3, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jose

81 Ops+ is better than Pedroia had i his first taste in the bigs, that was a 42. – Pedroia had a full season in AAA as well.

Lets look at the rest of those guys . . .

Cano hit well right away, his rookie year 106 – and played a full season in AA and, a hal;f-season in AAA.

Zobrist was 48 in 180 Pa’s – and played 182 games in AA and AAA.

Kinsler was good right away, 105 – and played 222 games in the upper minors

Weeks took a while to adjust to the bigs 43, 90, 96 his first three shots – he had 188 games in the high minors

Kendrick 87 and 150 games in upper minors

Phillips had a 48 OPs+ in his first 398 Pa opportinity – and played almost 500 games in the upper minors!

Ok, Ok I’m tired. The point is that Altuve hit .276 ion the major leagues after playing exactly 35 games above A+.

His record in the majors, when conbined with that context, looks exactly like a future star.

By the way, you don’t have to be an elite major league olayer to be the top prospect in the Cal League. He is right around the same kinmd of player as Howie Kendrick. Very good player – #3 prospect in the Cal League.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Again with the elite player/Pedroia comps?

Nobody expected Zobrist, Phillips, or Pedroia to do anything remotely close to what they’re doing now. Again, Altuve could improve, but your comparisons above contain an enormous amount of selection bias. I gave you a bunch of great players, so you found the guys of that group who hit horribly in their first tastes in the big leagues from that group and naturally were given a group of people who started poorly and ended spectacularly.

The selection bias comes in because beginning with a group of players who are awesome now leaves out all of the guys who flamed out after starting their careers that poorly. For every guy like Pedroia who started his career poorly and the light came on, there’s a dozen Reggie Willits-es who put up wRC+ totals over 100 in their first ~550 plate appearances and then completely tanked because their frames didn’t lend themselves to having any sort of legitimate big-league power. A more productive comparison would be to take every player who performed as poorly or worse than Altuve in their first 200 or so big-league PA’s then find a distribution of career wRC+ totals. Do you really think that most of that sample would look like stars? Because if so, I didn’t realize that there were hundreds – heck, thousands – of big-league stars over the last decade or so…

The bottom line is that Altuve didn’t perform well in his first exposure to the majors, was a great hitter in the minors, and scouting reports favored other prospects in the league according to this particular BA writer. There’s reason enough there to rank Altuve where he is on this list.

The word “elite” was originally yours, not mine. I think he’s probably right around an average regular – something like 2 WAR. Others think he’s less. In a strong Cal League class, the rank is justified.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 4, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Go check

I despise the overuse of that word, and i did not use it. Why do you keep mentioning what others think? They are completely fallable and I don’t wagree with them in this instance.

I agree with some of what you said but, i also don’t thin it is fair to harp on Altuve’s performance in the big leagues without mentioning its context.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well that's a crazy stat to use

When 11 of those came in the Sally in 2010. His breakout season contained 10 home runs. He’s not a home run hitter. He’s a potentially-remarkable doubles and possibly an impressive triples hitter, but citing his home run total in Low-A a year ago is a bit uninformative.

There’s nothing wrong with being a ~2 WAR guy. But the ceiling is lower than other guys on the list, and BA loves ceilings.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 3, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree with them

His ceiling is higher than that. I didn’t say there is anything wrong with those kinds of players, just that he isn’t one.

25 home runs is a fair amount of home run pop for a guy characterised as having not very good power potential. Why do you think flashing some pop in low A isn’t informative? It’s a very good indicator of having some decent pop.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thats fair

I looked and Lancaster and Corpus Chrisi and good very good parks for home runs as well – it’s noted.

Nonetheless, Altuve has had 95 Xb’s the past two seasons so I think making a claim that he’ll have average power for a major league 2b isn’t too out of line – the litrtle guy has some power.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Saying Lancaster is a good park for home runs understates the issue.

Its a joke of a park in the California desert. The Red Sox got stuck there for a few years (Frederick dropped them for the local Orioles) and they skipped pretty much all their interesting pitching prospects over the level to avoid that launching pad. They hated it so much that John Henry personally bought the Salem franchise to get back in the Carolina League and out of Lancaster.

by alskor on Oct 4, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Arizona was also stuck there

Got out ASAP and went to Visalia.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 4, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Park, shakier predictive value, etc.

nixa37 covered the biggie.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 4, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right, way to use the most ridiculous comp...

I’m not saying the guy is destined to fail, but for all the uproar about how it’s so shameful for him to be ranked where he is, I’m just providing a reason why it’s very reasonable for him to be where he is. For those who question his power and swing-happy approach, he could look like a fringe-average regular.

I like Altuve. I just see no reason why it’s so absurd for him to be ranked where he is on BA’s list.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 3, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok, you see it that way

And you thibnk it is reasonable, ok.

I like him a lot nmore than you, and I think it is absurd. The guy slugged .591. How much more power do you want from the little fella?

Plus-plus hit tool, solid average power for a second baseman, plus speed, solid defense. If that isn’t one of the best playwers in the Cal, I don’t know what else I can say.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

In places like Lancaster

I want to see a much higher ISO. SLG is a nice stat and all, but hardly a good indicator of actual power, particularly for someone like Altuve who freakin’ hit .400 at Hi-A.

I could see plus hit tool, but for someone who batted around .300 for most of his career before an 87-game sample in the minors this year (52 of which came at Lancaster), let’s relax on the plus-plus for a while. His BABIP this year was enormous – .431 for Lancaster and .370 for Corpus Christi – and it’s entirely possible that he sees it regress heavily. His BABIP for Lexington the year before was just .324. That’s a high total, but nowhere near the absurd figures he put up early in 2011. If that BABIP goes back to normalcy – it was .301 with Houston – Altuve is not a legendary hitter for contact, instead being just a very good hitter for contact. Without much power or patience, that’s a nice, but not an elite prospect.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 4, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree

with all of this. There is nothing wrong with hitting .400. You don’t need an extremely high ISO if you spray a million singles around – in addition to his power, which is plemty decent enough. He had a pretty decent walk rate in Lexington as well. Forget it, I just disagree with the entirety of your assement of him :) There is no common ground here and, that makes me laugh.

Oh well, we’ll just pull up a chair and watch and see I guess Dan.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Roflmoa

And I’d love to be in a fantasy league with somebody like you who thinks Altuve should be the #1 prospect of any league. I’m sorry to break the news to you but he’ll be down in the mid-teens in the Texas league as well.

 I know it’s easy to get enamored of a player with an OPS barely breaking .650. What really excites me is his negligible walk rate, one that’s been steadily on the decline his entire career. At least his power was better but still his iso was a pathetic double digit number. He’s nothing but a bench player at the major league level and he can only dream of being Jeff Keppinger.

I can't count the reasons I should stay
One by one they all just fade away

by HotSludgeSundae on Sep 30, 2011 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Okey dokey

We’ll have to wait and see on that one. You are going to be sooo wrong though, just to let you know.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Fun player to root for, but I think he profiles as a 2nd division starter or a utility type. Doesn’t provide much defensive value, not sure he’s going to hit enough vs major leaguers. I think what we saw this season is about what we’ll get going forward, subject to BIP luck. I’d still take him over some more talented players because I like the motor.

by alskor on Sep 30, 2011 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

We should make a "friendly" wager

I’ll bet you he hits .300 next year and, not an emty .300 either. He’s going to be a first-division starter. He also has plenty of defensive value. Where do you get that? He’s soliod out there – decent enough range – very good hands – very quick on the double play.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't actually...

Colin Wyers has finally convinced me to abandon UZR.

Just having seen Altuve, the defensive tools are solid but unspectacular. I wasn’t ragging on him defensively – I just think he’s more of an average defender type. Steve Fiorindo was pretty positive on his defense when he saw him IIRC…

by alskor on Sep 30, 2011 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well then

What are you talking about?? A solid defender at second base has HUGE defensive value!

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Colin Wyers has finally convinced me to abandon UZR.

Why? Just out of curiosity; I realize it needs a huge sample and that it’s not incredibly precise, but why do you consider it irrelevant?

by boonitez on Oct 1, 2011 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

There are two major problems

1) Park – Each stadium has a different vantage point and/or camera angle for scoring. Colin has shown that this results in extremely inconsistent definitions of what is a line drive, fly ball, fliner, etc…

2) Range – For some reason that isn’t entirely clear, pretty much all the metrics seem to grade or mark plays in incorrect spots; they tend to mark it closer to the player that made the play/had the chance. There are actually a number of biases that occur in this kind of scoring and it can be affected by how good teammates are.

I could deal with problem number 1, but problem number 2 is pervasive and pretty much sold me that the data is too polluted to use. Basically, all BIP fielding data is disturbingly polluted right now and I don’t think its reliable. Nor do I think it gives any more accurate a picture of a fielder’s abilities or performance than many of the methods we were using before UZR. Its pretty disappointing.

by alskor on Oct 1, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I liked his D

not a flashy guy, but more of a solid defender

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's what I saw

The chief drawback for me was that he doesn’t have much margin for error on plays where he has to extend himself. Positioning is extremely important for him, but I thought he did a decent job of starting in the right spots.

by blackoutyears on Oct 1, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kupe?

Is that you? You are really going to straight to the numbers? I was just going by what I had seen. I saw him turn a quick double play at the futures game and make a few other plays – looked at his basic numbers – and I saw a good second-basman.

Just FYI, I held my nose and looked on fangraphs and Altuve had approzimately the sanme UZR, per 150 games played, as Robinson Cano, Orlando Hudson, Neil Walker, Jemile Weeks, Maicer Iztruris – pretty good second baseman. He does have plenty of defensie value

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

why wouldn't I look at the numbers?

I can certainly use them to inform my knowledge, provided I recognize the limitations of the data. For example, it’s rare that I’ll go to a ballgame without analyzing the starting pitchers’ numbers earlier in the day.

You said that Altuve “provides plenty of defensive value”. Scouting reports are more positive on his defense than the numbers at this point, but neither suggest that his defense is that worthy of praise. Then you have to consider that he really needs to be a strong defender if he wants to be among the best at his position, because he hits for an empty average. The closest comparable on the list you cited is probably Maicer Izturis, who has been a career utility guy for the most part.

I think it’s reasonable to expect that Altuve might become a better player than Izturis, and certainly being in Houston will give him opportunities than Izturis has not had. At the same time, he lacks patience and clearly comes up short (heh) in power projection, so I’m not sure just how good we can really expect him to be. And it’s not exactly like it’s a given that he comes anywhere close to Izturis’ career .275/.339/.388 line.

I see reason to hope that Altuve settles in as a solid second baseman all things considered, but I do think you are facing an uphill battle to convince people that he stands to be one of the best in the game.

by mrkupe on Oct 1, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Shoot M'Man

I don’t cae If I convince anybody, I like being the only one who knows something :)

The idea that he doesn’t have power is delusional, in my opinion. Also the idea foisted forward by Mr.Skor that If he is a league average 2b, that doesn’t have value, is also strange. He looks very solid there and in real basball a good second baseman is extremely important, of course.

You, and others, are judging his offense way to much based on what he did in the big leagues in my opinion. He was facing A-ball pitchers until like late June, wasn’t he? He is not only capable of hitting for a lot higher average – he is also likely to hit for more power too, and draw more walks – because he is young, and he did it in the minor leagues.

He is predominantly a line-drive hitter but, he can juice a ball. He had 32 doublexs – 11 triples – and hit 12 balls out of the park!

Izturis .374 slugging in minors
Altuve .481 Slugging in minors

Altuve hit almost as many homers this season – 12 – as Izturis has hit in parts of 12 seasons in the minors – 14. I really don’t think they as similar as you tyhink in the power dept.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't want to root against Altuve.

He’s too much fun to cheer for. I’m just not sold on his bat. Not all that patient and he takes a big cut… That’s a scary mix in a 5’5" player.

by alskor on Sep 30, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't worry

Your reality-based analysis will likely be rewarded.

by blackoutyears on Oct 1, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well,

everyone on HOU is a 2nd division starter. lol

I liked the contact ability from Altuve, but I don’t see much power potential. The swing I saw in the majors doesn’t generate the same loft as the one I saw in minor league video. Cozart had a similar issue, so it’s possible that both initially leveled their swings in the bigs to ensure contact. Altuve runs absolutely balls out down the line, and I wonder how long he can keep that up. Ryan Roberts was doing that this year for AZ and hit the wall hard a couple of times before Gibby told him to tone it down. You love the effort, but it’s not sustainable. I think Altuve is a solid avg defender. Good positioning and enough arm for the position. His height worked against him on some batted balls that I felt would have been caught by a taller defender.

Two potential weakness with the bat are that he basically attacks FBs up and struggles with stuff at the knees — of course, it’s harder to pitch him at the knees than most hitters, but I saw pitchers doing that in later looks to good effect — and that he seemed little interested in taking a walk. Like a lot of guys with uncanny contact ability he’s going to have to work harder to restrain his urge to hit pitches just because he can.

Hot Sludge makes a good point that the walk rate has declined steadily as Altuve has been promoted. I expect him to be better than he was this year, but there’s quite a bit more refinement needed than I expected.

by blackoutyears on Sep 30, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

jud

how do you feel about Kody Hinze? His OPS was over 1000 in the CAl, but he didn’t make the list. . . it’s not about stats

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ask a question, get an answer

I haven’t seen him play but, I listened to some radio braodcasts and heard the announcers describe him – just like his numbers and stats look.

Nothing about stats here – just context – he’s 24, is a 1B/DH – and didn’t perform real well upon promotion to AA.

Not mentioning stats, Altuve profiles as middle of the diamond player – one with real value – he can also really hit, can run, has shown a decent enough eye in the minors, and is 21. There is plenty to like about him besides stats. He has plenty of baseball skills – way more than Hinze.

Also, your comparison of Altuve to Kendrick shows that you don’t have to profile as one of the best players in baseball to be a top prospect in the Cal League. If he turns out that good, there probably won’t be any more than 4-5 players from the Cal who are as good as Kendrick has been, will there?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 5, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree Altuve should be higher on this list

I don’t agree he should be ranked number one though. I would put him somewhere between 5-10.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Oct 2, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Considering

that various BA authors keep saying that these lists are as much about performance in the league, that’s probably true. Altuve was both one of the best performers and one of the better prospects.

by blackoutyears on Oct 2, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes.

That said, it’s not surprising that BA ranked him so low. This is the same publication that went from saying he was likely a career minor leaguer earlier in the year, to saying maybe he could be a utility guy, to somewhere between a bench player and a fringe regular. They’ve always been down on Altuve.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Oct 4, 2011 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

So Steve

Who do you like – from what you’ve seen?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Sep 30, 2011 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I liked a lot of the guys, the league was pretty stacked

I like the rankings for the most part, a few other guys I liked that didn’t make the list were Angelys Nina, Angelo Songco (saw him a lot, and put on shows in BP, power translated to games too). Another guy to watch is Jake Lemmerman, he’s probably a major leaguer, albeit a utility guy. Tools don’t shout at you, but he makes plays and always seemed to have good at bats and make all the plays. I believe Mike at Scouting the Sally said the same thing about him.

I’m not real big on Davidson and Borchering, both are pretty sloppy defensively and both showed me some very bad AB’s.

Fuentes really didn’t make a strong impression on me, and saw him at least five or six times. Didn’t see a lot of solid contact.

I don’t buy into Gary Brown’s power numbers, and I have heard some saying 15-20 pop. Most of what I saw was an inside approach/contact first style of hitting, and at times he’d cheat and yank on fastballs on the inner half. A lot of people are knocking that he is “just” Juan Pierre, but if he can walk at a 7 or 8 percent clip and hit like Pierre that’s a lot of freaking value considering Brown will be a plus defender. How many leadoff guys are putting up 380 OBP?

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

 . . . especially If he is Jaun Pierre who knocks the ball oit of the park 7 -12 times a year. I wish you would stick up for Altuve a little though, even though it doesn’t really matter. He hit .408 and hit .276 in the major leagues. What would Reymond Fuentes have done there, I wonder? .176?

That #15 for Altuve was comical.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Altuve

I think you want me to stick up for you more than for him though :)

I think Altuve may be kind of a Howie Kendrick type, and I know Howie had bad D metrics in the past. But he’s a good hitter, has some pop, pretty solid D. Not a real superstar, but pretty solid across the board.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks

Howie was a top 3 player in the Cal, and a top 20 prospect or so. I’d agree with that comp. I like support for my stuff I believe in as much as the next guy, maybe more, but I don’t mind standing alone.

It just shocks me how much people dioubnt Altuve, or think he is “fun”, or a “good strory”, instead of how freaking excellent of a player he is. Its is truly bizarre :)

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why?

Do you feel like Kendrick hasn’t lived up to his billing or, what do you meen?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean

When he said “kind of a Kendrick type”, I didn’t get the impression that he meant “Altuve = Kendrick, and Kendrick = a top 20 prospect, so there you go!” But maybe he did and I just read it wrong.

by mrkupe on Oct 1, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Either way

It’s his words, we’ll let him clarify If he wants. I will say that Kendrick’s age 21 season (2005) is really simlar to Altuve’s.

I see some similariteies there and, I also see consistency and predictability in minor league numbers where others see chaos :)

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lemmerman

is a guy I liked coming into his draft year. Nice pick by LAD. I’m not sure why Brown’s power is worth arguing over. He’s not a power hitter, especially in his home park, and power is no where his value lies. Seems like an excuse for people to argue over something meaningless.

More to the point, Brown took some flak early on for poor jumps and routes. How did he look for you, Steve? When I hear plus defender I don’t think of guy’s who’ve ever gotten those sort of reports.

by blackoutyears on Oct 1, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Brown

He looked fine in the looks I saw. And I think the thought is that a guy with his make-up, and especially his speed, he will be a plus defender. He doesn’t have a great arm, but he got rid of the ball quickly and was pretty accurate. . . And I agree on the power thing, but I believe some have projected 15-20 HR’s down the road.

RE: altuve/kendrick : I think Altuve can be what Howie has been. I still think Howie can boost his game up, it seems he goes through spurts where he is more discipline at the plate, and that was when he had more over the fence power. His first few years have been slightly disappointing though, as I thought he’d be better.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 2, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see Altuve

having Kendrick’s over-the-fence power potential based on his swing, but I guess he could start hitting a ton of doubles and put up some respectable SLGs in some years. Kendrick has had surprising power since his minor league days.

by blackoutyears on Oct 2, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe

But the suggestion was Jaun Pierre, which is 1 homer a year.
Home run power isn’t one of Brown’s best skills, as you say. But I think he reasonably profiles as a guy who could hit 7 to 12 homers a year perhaps.

A difference of 6 to 11 homers might not sound huge but, its sizable.

How many doubles worth of value would that be? 25-30 a year? Its all hypothetical of course (Browns power, not Pierre’s) but it has meaning when comparing the two guys.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not worth nearly that many 2Bs

Using the value according to linear weights, a HR isn’t even worth twice what a 2B is in terms of expected runs.

by nixa37 on Oct 4, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok, thanks

Not being sarcastic, thanks for the clarification.

Would you agree with my point though. That the difference in home runs is enough to be significant in a comparison If we disagree on thier home run power?

7-12 home runs a year certainly isn’t “meaningless” is it?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with that

I was mostly just looking to clarify that HR aren’t quite as valuable as most people (myself included before I looked at the numbers) would think.

by nixa37 on Oct 4, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good lord

Just clicked on the link for Davidson…fielding looks awful there…last-second stabbing at ball, tentative, etc. I know it was practice, but seriously, that does not look like the actions of a guy destined to play 3B. Is there a scout in the house?

Eagerly waiting to hear the Cox to Wong to Pujols double play call.

by siddfynch on Oct 1, 2011 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

this is why

having multiple scouting reports and on different days matters a lot

but yeah, lots of questions about his defense, though for some reason BA seems optimistic

by blue bulldog on Oct 1, 2011 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I saw

enough of this to make my conclusions about the D. . .

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cal me crazy

But I don’t think he actually defends that way in games…

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Oct 3, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I want Davidson to be higher on this list b/c I think he's a darn good prospect

And I’m an AZ fan, but… darn it, this list is pretty good. I would think of moving Fuentes down a couple slots and putting Davidson up at #15, and maybe putting Davidson ahead of Altuve as well. However, much as I want him to belong in the top-10, he doesn’t. :-/

Still, this list looks 16-strong to me with B grade prospects.

Founder and Chairman of the Send Dan Some Pizzeria Bianco Commission. A totally, definitely for-profit organization.

by Dan Strittmatter on Sep 30, 2011 9:25 PM EDT reply actions  

yeah

strong prospects in the Cal League this year

i’m not a fan of Gyorko. was skeptical of the Cal League results, and he definitely didn’t do anything to dispel concerns in his AA stint. i also think Brown and Choice have very high potential to underwhelm next year.

by blue bulldog on Sep 30, 2011 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

curious to hear what you don't like about Gyorko

He’s been a big favorite of statheads for quite some time now. He got off to a bit of slow start in AA, but he was actually well above average there by the end of the year.

by mrkupe on Sep 30, 2011 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

well

he was unimpressive in a small sample size as a 21 year old in A ball. then he started to hit in the Cal League where everyone hits. got promoted to AA and again became mediocre.

sure he’s only 22. but i mean, a 112 wRC+ as a 22 year old in AA isn’t special. he’s the same age as Adam Eaton, but Eaton did soooo much better after being promoted.

i also was under the impression that his defense at 3B was questioned throughout the year, but i could be wrong about that. i don’t know. his whole statistical profile just seems unspectacular.

by blue bulldog on Oct 1, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure what you mean by "mediocre"

Gyorko had a 110 OPS+ in the Texas League. His performance was clearly above league average. And scouting reports have always been very positive about his ability to hit. Hard to see what the problem is here for a player a year out of college.

Gyorko’s defense has always been the main issue for him. He was a college 2B but lacks the agility to play up the middle. There was concern that he might be pushed to 1B/LF.I don’t think that stands to be the case at the moment, though. I don’t expect him to win Gold Gloves at 3B, but he handles himself well enough there and isn’t prone to making mistakes.

So yeah, I’m not really sure what you want from the guy. He’s been well above league average at every stop thus far. He even had a 1.068 OPS in a league where the average OPS was .779. Scouting reports continue to praise his ability to hit. Concerns are easing about his defense.

by mrkupe on Oct 1, 2011 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gyorko

I would like to see him given a chance at 2b. I like the bat, seemingly more than most here.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Double-A

power was disappointing, which is always concerning after a player pops in the Cali. He had to get pretty hot down the stretch just to post a .140 IsoP. Considering he’s Petco-bound, the power is what I’ll be watching in 2012.

by blackoutyears on Oct 1, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

iso was a concern for me as well

by blue bulldog on Oct 2, 2011 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

he was 12% above league average in AA

i don’t consider that special

if the concerns are easing about defense that helps a lot. will look for it in the offseason.

by blue bulldog on Oct 2, 2011 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

he was actually 10 percent above league average

Even if you’re unimpressed by it, there’s no reason to think poorly of that performance, especially considering it was his first full year and in AA.

I think his power will be okay, not great, in the end. His raw power is very ordinary, but he does a nice job of picking out pitches that he can drive and he is an excellent mistake hitter. I don’t consider it a major issue unless you’re looking for an especially high-ceiling player – of course, Petco happens, but that’s irrelevant to the discussion at hand. Unless you’re looking for a fantasy baseball prospect, but fantasy baseball is not really my forte.

by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2011 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

i was referring to his wRC+

when i said 12%

but i mean, it’s not a big difference either way in this case (between 10-12%)

to me, his walk rate is fairly good (around 10%), his strikeout rate is averageish (19%), and his ISO is not impressive (140 at AA, since I don’t buy into Cal League ISO’s)

if the power doesn’t improve (i don’t think most people are projecting more than a 150 ISO at the majors), then you can probably expect the walk rate to drop (pitchers aren’t going to be scared to pitch to him), which means the strikeout rate would need to improve to a more elite level as well.

i mean, i tend to not get impressed by prospects in general, so take everything i say with a grain of salt. i don’t really get impressed until i think history has shown that the player has a very high chance of making it to the majors and contributing (like, over 50% chance).

the other thing is, like scouts, who all have varying degrees of opinions about players, “statheads” too have varying things they look at when they evaluate a player.

to be honest, i don’t even consider myself a “stathead”. i prefer to just think of myself as a “logichead”.

by blue bulldog on Oct 2, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm assuming most everybody thinks they are a "logichead"

I haven’t found anybody yet who believes they are arguing from nonsensical points of view.

I think he’ll walk just fine. The guys who really suffer drops in walk rate as they move up are the guys who really don’t possess good hitting skill in the first place. Gyorko is the opposite of that, he’s a good pure hitter, and while he’s not a big power guy, I don’t think anybody’s going to be knocking the bat out of his hands.

I’m fine with you not being fond of him as there are certainly questions, but you do seem to be a little harsh on him. He still has work to do, but on the whole it was a good year, and another one like it should put him on the verge of landing a major league starting job.

by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, i was speaking more from a comparative advantage standpoint

some people are just naturally better at some things, whether because they were born with it, or because of past experiences

i assume you probably have a comparative advantage against the population at large when it comes to scouting. there are others who probably have a comparative advantage against the population at large when it comes to statistics.

i guess i’d just like to think i have a comparative advantage against the population at large when it comes to logic.

again, i don’t think i’m being harsh on him, since i consider harsh to be a relative term. i actually tried to prevent that kind of impression by saying “i mean, i tend to not get impressed by prospects in general, so take everything i say with a grain of salt.” but i guess that probably didn’t get across.

by blue bulldog on Oct 2, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm curious about Choice

I know the overall K rate was pretty ugly, but it definitely got a lot more reasonable in the second half. Any chance someone had a chance to see him later in the season to get a sense of whether there were changes that led to the stellar 332/411/590 line after the All Star Break?

by realitypolice on Oct 3, 2011 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even as an Astros fan

I feel like Arenado should definitely be above Singleton.

by kyuss94 on Sep 30, 2011 9:36 PM EDT reply actions  

ednison rincon

i took him in my deep all NL 12 team league where we keep 12 minors in our mid-year draft……..ive gotten some feeback that his fielding is so atrocious that hell never play in the big leagues other than DH………thoughts on rincon???

by slapnutz on Sep 30, 2011 11:41 PM EDT reply actions  

body

first thing I thought was Juan Uribe. You don’t really wanna see a guy at age 20 with that body type.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

A tweet, presumably by a scout

“But he is, by a fairly significant margin, the worst infield defender I’ve ever seen above the high school level.”"

by pickapeppa on Oct 2, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually

That wasn’t a tweet, or by a scout. It was me in a different thread around here last week…

And his body’s big, but not soft.

by realitypolice on Oct 3, 2011 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Huge Bat

I could see him traded at the 2013 or 2014 deadline to an AL team for a contributing player. I think there is still hope he can play a position but he might be unservicable in the field. Nevertheless his bat should play. I think it’s a plus with Fantasy upside.

by johnnycomelately9 on Oct 4, 2011 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gyorko vs. Arenado

very interesting placements. I would have switched them, personally, but it’s BA.

by JoelGuzman'sScout on Oct 1, 2011 3:36 AM EDT reply actions  

main

concern with Arenado is the power. Some over the fence power will develop, but he didn’t really show a lot and he doesn’t really have a swing that screams future power.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm

Thats interesting. Not saying you are wrong but, he sure has a lot of XBs the past two seasons for someone with questions on thier power.

Normally I don’t point this stuff ouit but, I was kinda surprised. Statcorner lists the park factor for home runs in Modesto as a 40 for righthasnded batters! (and 49 for lefties). He also did hit 14 of his 20 bombs on the road.

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's why I pointed out the OVER THE FENCE POWER

I think he could rack up 2b’s aplenty. His swing and approach is kind of Jeter esque, with an inside out approach. He doesn’t look to just pound inside fastballs and mistakes. I talked with his dad for quite a while up in HD and brought up the HR power. We both agreed that some of the doubles will become HR’s as he gets stronger and more experience, but he’s not a guy that sells out for power. So he won’t be a “slugger” as much as he will be a hitter.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 1, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Got ya

I get your point.

Still though, for a guy with not much over the fence power he 14 out on the road. That has to be one of the highest totals in the league. It was also a good approach for the park he was playing in half the time.

Any idea why Modesto supresses home runs so much?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 1, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Haven't been to Modesto

I mainly go to the Southern Section. Inland Empire, Rancho Cucamonga, Lake Elsinore, High Desert. Still haven’t been to Lancaster though. Did make it up to San Jose and Bakersfield this year though.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 2, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

You guys are low on Gyorko

If you translate his Cal numbers across a full season you have the best season in the minors. Obviously he’s older; but he went to college, and is in a organization that is deep at 3rd base. Many knock Gyorko AA numbers but his home park is harder than Petco. And even after being promoted up a level mid-season, he managed to help lead the Mission’s to the Texas Legue Championship. Does that not say anything about him and his teammates make up? Winning plus best hitting numbers in the Cal League = #2 on the list.

by johnnycomelately9 on Oct 4, 2011 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Better than this season?

 AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB KS OBP SLG
.408 140 573 102 234 35 19 13 92 51 24 51 70 .451 .606

From a solid second-basman, who is two years younger, who hit better in AA ball, and reached the big leagues and hit .276 there?

" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller

by casejud on Oct 4, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gyorko

hit .288 with 7 HRs when he was promoted, .340 over his last ten games, showing he had adjusted to the higher league. Seems like a nice prospect. Don’t know why anyone would think so. He has pop and BA. He seems right on track at 23.

by Hairylady on Oct 1, 2011 7:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Vinnie Catricala

should be on this list. He played 71 games for High Desert and only 62 for Jackson (AA), so I assume he fits on this list. His numbers were great all year.

by bp42810 on Oct 1, 2011 5:43 PM EDT reply actions  

the obvious question to ask in these situations

If he “should” be on the list, but isn’t on the list, then why isn’t he on the list? I have to believe they know who he is . . .after all, he did have a very good year.

The answer is, there are things they don’t like about him, and seeing as the numbers are pretty good, those things almost certainly go beyond the numbers.

by mrkupe on Oct 1, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

His weakness is not having a great handle on a defined defensive position,

but his bat will play just about anywhere. His bat is greatly superior to some on the list, so they would have to be defensive wizards to make up the difference and I don’t think that is the case.

by bp42810 on Oct 2, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

they wouldn't have to be "defensive wizards"

There IS such a thing as a positional adjustment, I hope you realize.

It’s still up to the air as to whether or not Catricala will have ANY major league defensive position. Perhaps Cal League sources didn’t feel very positive about his chances in the field. Or maybe it was a combination of questions on defensive and a concern that maybe he won’t be this kind of hitter at the highest level. Frankly, I don’t know.

Sorry if I sound harsh, but I really don’t understand the “Player X should be on there” types of arguments. First, there are more than 20 good prospects in every league. Second, BA would gladly put the player on their list if they heard enough positive talk about him. It doesn’t hurt to try to read between the lines – if he’s not on here, there are reasons, and those reasons typically come from the league sources that BA consults.

by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Plenty of guys with big numbers

that aren’t on the list Kody Hinze, Adam Eaton, Catricala, Songco, Kole Calhoun. . . it’s not about stats though.

I tried to get up to Catricala again up in the desert when Modesto was in town, but he got promoted the day before I got up there.

by SoCalSoxFan on Oct 2, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

And two or three of those will probably even make it to the majors in some capacity (e.g. Eaton, Songco, Catricala). It’s the Cali. Scouting is extremely important.

by blackoutyears on Oct 2, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fuentes

I just don’t get the love. If things to INCREDIBLY well for him, he tops out as a fifth outfielder.

by realitypolice on Oct 3, 2011 10:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Fuentes defense rates +

He has speed and can hit some. Fuentes and Tate could make an interesting OF for the Storm. Next year could propel both or derail both.

by johnnycomelately9 on Oct 4, 2011 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fuentes is not returning to Elsinore

He’ll be posting a 650 OPS in San Antonio.
However, Tate and Liriano should be playing side-by-side in Elsinore, and that will certainly be the most dynamic outfield duo the Padres have put on a field in a LONG time.

by realitypolice on Oct 4, 2011 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

'650 OPS in San Antonio'

Probably, yeah. I don’t understand the ranking for Rey Fuentes either – Jose Altuve is already a major league contributor who made a major jump this year from High A ball to MLB& I believe that the potential of Matthew Davidson is pretty underrated still (especially if he remains at 3b). That’s to name but a couple of other guys.

by Matt0330 on Oct 4, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Screw it

If you look at Storm position players, Gyorko, Valdez, Galvez, Rincon, and Hagerty are all a LOT more likely to become everyday big league players than Fuentes. BA’s infatuation with him is really quite strange.

by realitypolice on Oct 4, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think you might be a little harsh on him, but not too much

Fuentes has a chance to make something of himself, but he is young and extremely raw. I don’t have him rated especially highly myself, but he isn’t a bad prospect.

I don’t think I’d agree about all of those players you listed. I still don’t see where Rincon fits on a major league team. Galvez isn’t anything that special from what I can tell. I’m not very warm on Hagerty . . .he was 23 this year, and he had some pretty terrible looking ABs when I got to see him.

by mrkupe on Oct 4, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

Galvez

If they can find a way to smooth his mechanics defensively, he’s a 20/20 second baseman. He’s finally started to add torso strength and I think his swing will allow him to incorporate it well as he gets stronger.
I know Hagerty was ragged up in San Antonio, but what I was hearing about swing mechanics there was very different than what we’ve seen in the past. I’ll be curious to see if he can consolidate there next year.

by realitypolice on Oct 4, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

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