BA SAL Top 20
Okay, so we were ALL wrong . . .
1. Bryce Harper, of, Hagerstown Suns (Nationals)
2. Manny Machado, ss, Delmarva Shorebirds (Orioles)
3. Jurickson Profar, ss, Hickory Crawdads (Rangers)
4. Jameson Taillon, rhp, West Virginia Power (Pirates)
5. Christian Yelich, of, Greensboro Grasshoppers (Marlins)
6. Jesse Biddle, lhp, Lakewood Blueclaws (Phillies)
7. Marcell Ozuna, of, Greensboro Grasshoppers (Marlins)
8. Brandon Jacobs, of, Greenville Drive (Red Sox)
9. Jonathan Schoop, ss/3b, Delmarva Shorebirds (Orioles)
10. Xander Bogaerts, ss, Greenville Drive (Red Sox)
11. A.J. Cole, rhp, Hagerstown Suns (Nationals)
12. Kyle Parker, of, Asheville Tourists (Rockies)
13. J.T. Realmuto, c, Greensboro Grasshoppers (Marlins)
14. Gary Sanchez, c, Charleston Riverdogs (Yankees)
15. Trayce Thompson, of, Kannapolis Intimidators (White Sox)
16. Bryce Brentz, of, Greenville Drive (Red Sox)
17. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Asheville Tourists (Rockies)
18. Domingo Santana, of, Lakewood Blueclaws (Phillies)/Lexington Legends (Astros)
19. Cody Buckel, rhp, Hickory Crawdads (Rangers)
20. Miles Head, 1b, Greenville Drive (Red Sox)
Link: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612405.html
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one very strange thing
BA had another gaffe, misspelling Jameson hewasworkingonfastballcommandallyearlongTaillon’s name. Sorry Pirates fans!
wtf
why is cole so low? and more importantly, why on earth is matzek rated above buckel? i wouldnt even have matzek on this list, not until we see marked improvement over a full season
Interesting
It doesn’t look much like the way I’d rank them, but interesting.
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There's a clear top 8 for me
- Bryce Harper
- Jurickson Profar
- Manny Machado
- Jameson Taillon
- Gary Sanchez
- AJ Cole
- Christian Yelich
- Xander Bogaerts
I find some of the guys that are ahead of Cole and Sanchez to be a bit head scratching. But to be clear, I’m not trying to attack the ranking. There’s nothing completely outlandish, I just have a differing opinion than Ballew.
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ditto
i really don’t understand BA’s rankings. they say it’s about current production AND projection, but if projection is factored in then why are bogaerts, brentz and sanchez so low?! is there anyone out there that honestly believes bogaerts won’t be better than schoop, jacobs or biddle? but then you look at the machado over profar – which isn’t that bad, but clearly they’re looking at projection ‘cause machado’s been nowhere near as good as profar and profar’s younger!
crazy
by DeathSpeculum on Sep 28, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
weird
1. Yes, there are people who believe that some/all of those three will be better than Bogaerts. All three of the players you mentioned are very good prospects.
2. Being younger does not equal having more projection. There are always young players who are unusually polished for their age.
3. Clearly, there are some people who have some issues with the first three prospects you mentioned.
Well just to remark on one comment about Xman/Schoop
I think Bogaerts has a higher ceiling but if I was taking guys who I thought would be the better all around player… I think Schoop has the better odds so I can see him ahead. He has received pretty great reviews in all aspects of his game. But they are so close in value it’s splitting hairs at this point.
'is there anyone out there that honestly believes bogaerts won’t be better than schoop, jacobs or biddle?'
Raises hand.
I really, really am intrigued by Xander Boegarts but you just listed 3 pretty fascinating guys & I’d rank at least 2 of them higher than Boegarts pre-2011.
Sanchez
Mike “Scouting the Sally” Newman had a chat on fangraphs. he expressed shock at HBT’s preliminary top 100 having Sanchez at 5 overall. he said a scout he talked to said Sanchez is a 20 on the 20-80 scale with the glove, no chance he’ll stick at c. I’d never heard that elsewhere. He also mentioned make-up. The HBT author sorta dismissed that, saying nothing recent, although he was apparently disciplined by the organization earlier this year. And that list is clearly with an eye towards fantasy value.
Just an fyi. I have sanchez, so the wildly diverging views is getting a little distressing.
Your list is fairly close to how I’d rank them. I am almost leaning prfar over Harper, likely just the contrarian in me, but mostly positional value.
by wobatus on Sep 28, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd be interested in knowing when that scout saw Sanchez
As there was a drastic difference in passed balls before and after the disciplinary DL stint. I don’t know, I just don’t see what the big difference is between now and last fall. The tools for good defense are supposedly there.
I don’t think Mike had the opportunity to see Sanchez in person this year which is a shame as he’s one of the better sources out there.
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If I know Jeff,
he’d have Sanchez higher for one (oops, beat me to it lol). I think I still prefer Cole to Biddle, but both had good years, and Biddle took on a heavy workload and pitched well.
I think a case could be made for Bogaerts over Ozuna. Bogaerts showed similar skills despite being two years younger and being aggressively assigned to the SAL, and he’s likely to provide more long term defensive value as an INF.
by blackoutyears on Sep 28, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Xander Bogaerts v. Marcell Ozuna
Oh, yeah there is a case & I’m pretty surprised that BA didn’t rank Boegarts higher honestly considering there was (to me) more hype surrounding him but I think Ozuna has the trappings of an absolute star. There were peaks & valleys to be sure, but he’s still a kid too & I think he projects to play a mean RF (where he was transitioned) & he has a very, very strong arm. Looks the part of a near prototypical RF already & he’s only 20.
I’m encouraged that somebody at BA feels highly about him too as I felt he has been pretty underhyped the past couple years considering his all around talent & what I perceive to be massive growth potential. I like Bogaerts too but am much more familiar with Ozuna.
The drop in Ozuna's strikeouts is impressive,
and I’m hoping this is a real step forward. And of course, Bogaerts has one half of an SAL season to be judged on, and he could go in any number of directions. But, if he’s in Double-A in two years flexing his guns as a power-hitting 3B at the same age Ozuna was tearing up the SAL, it’s going to look questionable. I’ve been looking at these lists as long as BA has been publishing them, and this is just one of those rankings where the SAL Five Years Ago sidebar could look pretty off, as we say “Cole and Bogaerts didn’t make the Top 10? Really?” Or we could be saying, “Remember how overhyped Bogaerts was? What a joke!” lol
by blackoutyears on Sep 29, 2011 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh,
and I’ve been following Ozuna since he was a GCL Marlin, so I’m certainly not down on him, or underrating him. He’s like the prototypical Marlins prospect. I just keep getting Julio Ramirez flashbacks when I look at his surface numbers, but I’m sure it’ll pass. lol
by blackoutyears on Sep 29, 2011 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
true
I’m anxious to see how Ozuna acclimates himself in Jupiter as there will be a lot of polished arms around & hope, as you do, that he can build on the gains he made as the year went on (on a tangent, Brandon Jacobs actually trended the other way with Ks as the season went on). The talent is so tangible though that I think he fights through it
Bogaerts is definitely a volatile guy to judge & you sum that up nicely. I’m pretty optimistic with him though. His power potential & the possibility that he’s likely (I think) to settle somewhere in the infield (& his young relative age even to most of this list) certainly leave open the possibility that he might someday have seemed ‘overlooked’ – even on a list that appears extremely strong.
Well, you know the story,
Bogaerts just has a really small amount of performance to look at, and it’s easier to be conservative with him. That’s why I look at those sidebars. The Carolina League’s “Five Years Ago” was pretty hit or miss. I mean, I had Chuck Lofgren at the time he was ranked #1, and I’m betting a lot of people are like Chuck Who? Patton, Barthmaier, Liz. One of those guys is still pitching (Patton actually pitched well in relief vs. BOS this week), and not in a high value role. And both the Carolina and Cali League #20 guys (Lowrie and Headley) have ended up being more productive than all but a few of the guys ranked higher. I remember being pretty interested in Headley and was surprised he was that low. It is what it is.
Jacob’s strikeout rates by month were interesting. Steady downward trend and then a spike in August/Sept. His walks rates were downright schizo.
by blackoutyears on Sep 30, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
top 20 vs top 100 is frustrating
In 3 months does anyone expect BA to rank Ozuna ahead of Cole, Schoop, and Bogaerts?
The lists are based off of different sources
So this list doesn’t necessarily effect the rankings of future lists
Brandon Jacobs of Lowell > Brandon Jacobs of NYG
Sources.
I understand that the top 20 is done essentially by one person while the top 100 is more of a group effort. However, I would imagine that the person who just created the list (Bill Ballew) knows as much about the league as anyone else. Lots of feedback from scouts and managers so he’s obtained solid, first hand info on these players. I don’t think the big wigs are hiding “better” sources that could help him. Why shouldn’t I believe him if he’s got Ozuna over Bogaerts? I appreciate the lists and won’t bring this up again. I just find it frustrating.
More than that...
These lists are based off talking to coaches and people around the league I believe, and they seem to give more credence to performance than the top 100 does. If the rankings bother you too much (and sometimes they do me as well tbf) just read the scouting reports, which are excellent and more than worth the price of admission themselves.
It's not that egregious
You’re vastly underrating the already vastly underrated Marcell Ozuna in my opinion.
Ozuna
That’s was the direction I wanted to go from the start. I thought Ozuna was ahead of Rymer Liriano before the season. I thought they were similar in that they both seemed to be boom or bust type RF’ers. I had moved Liriano ahead of him. Now I am rethinking that one. Anyway, I thought it was close before the season and it looks like it is still tough to tell which might be the better prospect.
These list’s or rankings are just that – in most cases they reflect BAs opinion solely on players. If you think that there is alot of feedback from scouts and managers your naive. There may be some but miniscule amounts – Ballew does do a good job that being said but I sure wouldn’t worry if a guy is ranked 15th and you think they should be number 10 – just splitting hairs IMO.
by bravesfaninchitown on Sep 28, 2011 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
agreeeee
Heck no, at least not Schoop
When you get Jim Hoey, Brett Jacobsen, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Cole Nelson, Lester Oliveros, Matt Capps, Jason Pridie, Brendan Harris, and 20,000 dollars for a half dozen key intrical parts to you're organization eveybody hurts.
And you're fan base begins to revolt. Why does Bill Smith evaluate talent? He would be much better served as the teams ball boy.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 28, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised Head is on here instead of Coyle
but Head did destroy the SAL ans SAL managers don’t care about his struggles upon promotion
How is Gary Sanchez so low?
Brandon Jacobs of Lowell > Brandon Jacobs of NYG
Domingo Santana v. Kyle Parker
Parker- 23 years old in 2 days, .285/.367/.483, 133 K
Santana- 19 years old, .287/.362/.471, 135 K
With the numbers so similar, why is Santana ranked so much lower? From my understanding, he has some bulk to add to his frame and the HRs should come (he had 33 2B to go with his 12 HR), and his elite performance in Lexington shows that a breakout could be on its way. Thoughts?
Am with you
I think Domingo Santana’s close to the season was definitely noteworthy & I’ve been fond of him in the past (although admittedly it wasn’t due to his #s but more or less his potential).
He’s a lot riskier to me than, say, Brandon Jacobs or Marcell Ozuna or even Kyle Parker I suppose, but I’d have placed him above Trayce Thompson & Parker I think.
Yeah! I had the top 4 right...
Surprised they are that high on Yelich, but he did show quite a bit as a 19 y.o.
Edward Salcedo
I know he made a million errors at 3b but, he is a surprising omishion, to me at least.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
Salcedo...
Faded way too much in the last 6 -8 weeks. Hard to argue this list based on performance and ceiling of prospects – the SALY was full of high end talent this year – fun to watch the prospects for each club !!
by bravesfaninchitown on Sep 28, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd have to agree
Salcedo being left off speaks to that. There are probably several others who have solid arguments to be on this list. It was a loaded year in the Sally.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
they liked 13 other guys more
Interesting to see J.T. Realmuto ahead of him. Very nice debut and good athleticism behind the plate.
No way he should be 14th
Even if you are down on him, he should still be in the top ten, along with Cole.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 28, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
you know, they *do* have reasons for ranking these players this way
Quibble with their subjective analysis if you will, but BA doesn’t construct these lists in a vacuum.
Since I do not see their subjective analysis/reasoning
I have to take issue with how they ranked Sanchez. They may believe he is only the 14th best prospect in the league, but what is their rationale for that? I cannot see any reason why he would be that low, even given a negative stance on Sanchez. And it is irrelevant if they create these list in a vacuum or not, the point is they are not infallible, their opinion is not king, and I, along with anyone else who is reasonably informed on these prospects has the right to disagree. The fact that the majority of people who have commented on Sanchez’s rank agree that it is too low (on a site not always kind towards Yankees prospects), I think offers credence to this opinion. But it is still an opinion, just like BA’s ranking is an opinion that I happen to believe is wrong.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 28, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally agree about respecting the opinions and work of others
But hey, you’re the one who said “No way he should be 14th” and “Even if you are down on him, he should still be in the top ten”.
So when you disagree with an opinion, it’s legitimate, but if somebody disagrees with YOUR opinion, it’s BS?
“I think offers credence to this opinion. But it is still an opinion”
I wasn’t calling any disagreement with my opinion BS. Perhaps I should have added the word “just” in there. As I said, “I, along with anyone else who is reasonably informed on these prospects has the right to disagree”.
My comments towards you were due to what I felt like was a dismissal of my opinion in reverence to BA’s opinion, not a dismissal of everyone’s opinion in favor of my own.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 28, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Jesse Biddle
comes in at #6. So much for being told yesterday that he’s not even in the Top 10. Suppose I had a valid point in suggesting that while he may not necessarily be in the Top 5 he should at least be in the discussion.
Sanchez
Fair ranking IMO – great player but guys above him generally performed better and have high ceilings also – probably his .256 BA and 31% K Ratio and his part-time demotion due to his attitude issue came into play – all legit.
by bravesfaninchitown on Sep 28, 2011 12:11 PM EDT reply actions
Wow shocking list for me
I like it, its very well done lots of depth probably deeper than MDWL and strongest list so far.
But shocking how Jacobs really is that high and AJ Cole and Gary Sanchez that low.
Not that Sanchez deserves it but its BA…
When you get Jim Hoey, Brett Jacobsen, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Cole Nelson, Lester Oliveros, Matt Capps, Jason Pridie, Brendan Harris, and 20,000 dollars for a half dozen key intrical parts to you're organization eveybody hurts.
And you're fan base begins to revolt. Why does Bill Smith evaluate talent? He would be much better served as the teams ball boy.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 28, 2011 12:34 PM EDT reply actions
Jacobs vs Sanchez
Jacobs line .303/.376/.505 17 HR 80 RBI 30 SB
Sanchez line .256/.335/.485 17 HR 52 RBI
Sanchez slight edge for being a top catching prospect – a premium position but that’s it. Jacobs trumps him easily !!
by bravesfaninchitown on Sep 28, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a Sox fan but for the sake of objectivity
Sanchez is two years younger which makes a pretty big difference.
Brandon Jacobs of Lowell > Brandon Jacobs of NYG
It's weird that BA has jumped off of the Gary Sanchez train so quickly
Sure, he didn’t start the season well, mediocre offensively and a shit ton of passed balls, culminating in the fake DL stint. After he was re-instated though, the passed balls slowed significantly and he was basically the guy that we expected offensively. This is the guy that they labeled as having the highest ceiling in the entire organization a year ago.
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I agree
It is strange, given the fact he was so good offensively towards the end. They must feel he’s Jesus Montero 2.0 defensively and ultimately won’t stick at catcher…
but even if so look at Jesus it looks like either he or Austine Romine will catch the majority of the games for the Yanks next season, assuming Russell Martin doesn’t come back. So what i’m saying is it can be fixed and like you said the passed balls and ugliness lessened after the “DL stint” so it is something that seemed to be improved upon already.
When you get Jim Hoey, Brett Jacobsen, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, Cole Nelson, Lester Oliveros, Matt Capps, Jason Pridie, Brendan Harris, and 20,000 dollars for a half dozen key intrical parts to you're organization eveybody hurts.
And you're fan base begins to revolt. Why does Bill Smith evaluate talent? He would be much better served as the teams ball boy.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 28, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
In his report it says that the fake DL stint was becase of his "suspect work ethic"
Maybe that has something to do IDK
by DominicanDandy on Sep 28, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Likely, and as SteveHoffmanSlowey points out above
I think a lot of this has to do with his defense being worse/raw than expected.
Trayce Thompson
Aside from Realmuto, Thompson’s the other guy who surprises me a bit ..
Monster raw power and real good tools, but I’m surprised he made this top 20 unless he’s getting nice reports from somewhere.
I think you summed it up nicely
He’s most likely . . .wait for it . . .getting nice reports from somewhere! :)
Huehuehue
I would’ve done the same, I’ll take a middle infielder who’s shown both patience and power (and some speed too) at age 19 anyday
Brandon Jacobs of Lowell > Brandon Jacobs of NYG
Head is only 20 and just scorched the SALLY and that is why he earned a promotion. Coyle is very good, great power, but his K ratio is a little high – big swing – and 20 errors at 2B (.959 fielding pct. ) are things he needs to work on – advantage Miles Head.
by bravesfaninchitown on Sep 28, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you notice that...
in Machado’s scouting rpt, it ‘leaked’ the fact that he is the #1 prospect in the Carolina League?
Just caught that!!!!
It does say that despite his struggle still ranked #1 on the Carolina League.
When I read it the first time I didn’t register it but now I went back and its there. I guess there will be a lot of discussions on that.
by DominicanDandy on Sep 28, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
uh yeah, probably a safe bet
I mean, who else is there? The only two players who have a chance of placing ahead of him are Mike Trout and Matt Moore, and neither of those guys played in the Eastern League.
I'm not sure it's a lock though
Harper was human in the EL, and the managers may have liked d’Arnaud or Turner more.
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Harper was also 18, and still ended up exactly league average after a tough start
I’d be shocked if it is anybody but him . . .will d’Arnaud even make BA’s top 10 prospects? BA does incorporate league source input on these things, but I can’t see them weighing it so heavily as to have anybody other than Bryce Harper as the best prospect in the league.
Probably not
I’m not suggesting that they are better than Harper, merely that it’s conceivable someone could displace Harper if they weigh league sources heavily enough.
Not sure where d’Arnaud will ultimately rank, but I think he’s an A- grade prospect. He wouldn’t be out of place that high.
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